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Monetary policy



 
 
Monetary policy is the process by which the government
Government

Government is the body within any organization that has the authority to make and the power to enforce laws, regulations, or rules. Typically, the government refers to a civil government -- local, provincial, or national -- but commercial, academic, religious, or other formal organizations are also administered by governing bodies....
, central bank
Central bank

A central bank, reserve bank, or monetary authority is the entity responsible for the monetary policy of a country or of a group of member states....
, or monetary authority of a country controls (i) the supply of money, (ii) availability of money, and (iii) cost of money or rate of interest
Interest

Interest is a fee paid on borrowed assets. It is the price paid for the use of borrowed money , or, money earned by deposited funds .Assets that are sometimes lent with interest include money, shares, consumer goods through hire purchase, major assets such as aircraft finance, and even entire factories in finance lease arrangements....
, in order to attain a set of objectives oriented towards the growth and stability of the economy. Monetary theory
Monetary theory

Monetary economics is a branch of economics that historically prefigured and remains integrally linked to macroeconomics. It provides a framework for analyzing money in its functions as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account....
 provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Monetary policy is referred to as either being an expansionary policy
Expansionary monetary policy

Expansionary monetary policy is Monetary_policy that seeks to increase the size of the Money_supply. In most nations, monetary policy is controlled by either a Central_bank or a Finance_ministry....
, or a contractionary policy
Contractionary monetary policy

Contractionary monetary policy is monetary policy that seeks to reduce the size of the money supply. They are fiscal policies, like lower spending and higher taxes, that reduce economic growth....
, where an expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in the economy, and a contractionary policy decreases the total money supply.






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Monetary policy is the process by which the government
Government

Government is the body within any organization that has the authority to make and the power to enforce laws, regulations, or rules. Typically, the government refers to a civil government -- local, provincial, or national -- but commercial, academic, religious, or other formal organizations are also administered by governing bodies....
, central bank
Central bank

A central bank, reserve bank, or monetary authority is the entity responsible for the monetary policy of a country or of a group of member states....
, or monetary authority of a country controls (i) the supply of money, (ii) availability of money, and (iii) cost of money or rate of interest
Interest

Interest is a fee paid on borrowed assets. It is the price paid for the use of borrowed money , or, money earned by deposited funds .Assets that are sometimes lent with interest include money, shares, consumer goods through hire purchase, major assets such as aircraft finance, and even entire factories in finance lease arrangements....
, in order to attain a set of objectives oriented towards the growth and stability of the economy. Monetary theory
Monetary theory

Monetary economics is a branch of economics that historically prefigured and remains integrally linked to macroeconomics. It provides a framework for analyzing money in its functions as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account....
 provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Monetary policy is referred to as either being an expansionary policy
Expansionary monetary policy

Expansionary monetary policy is Monetary_policy that seeks to increase the size of the Money_supply. In most nations, monetary policy is controlled by either a Central_bank or a Finance_ministry....
, or a contractionary policy
Contractionary monetary policy

Contractionary monetary policy is monetary policy that seeks to reduce the size of the money supply. They are fiscal policies, like lower spending and higher taxes, that reduce economic growth....
, where an expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in the economy, and a contractionary policy decreases the total money supply. Expansionary policy is traditionally used to combat unemployment
Unemployment

File:World map of countries by rate of unemployment.pngUnemployment occurs when a person is available to work and currently seeking work, but the person is without Wage labour....
 in a recession
Recession

In economics, the term recession describes the reduction of a country's gross domestic product for at least two Calendar_year#Quarters. The usual dictionary definition is "a period of reduced economic activity", a business cycle contraction....
 by lowering interest rates, while contractionary policy involves raising interest rates in order to combat inflation
Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. The term "inflation" once referred to increases in the money supply ; however, economic debates about the relationship between money supply and price levels have led to its primary use today in describing price inflatio...
. Monetary policy is contrasted with fiscal policy
Fiscal policy

In economics, fiscal policy is the use of government spending and revenue collection to influence the economy.Fiscal policy can be contrasted with the other main type of economic policy, monetary policy, which attempts to stabilize the economy by controlling interest rates and the supply of money....
, which refers to government borrowing, spending and taxation.

Overview

Monetary policy rests on the relationship between the rates of interest in an economy, that is the price at which money can be borrowed, and the total supply of money. Monetary policy uses a variety of tools to control one or both of these, to influence outcomes like economic growth
Economic growth

Economic growth is the increase in the amount of the goods and services produced by an economics over time. It is conventionally measured as the percent rate of increase in real gross domestic product, or real GDP....
, inflation
Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. The term "inflation" once referred to increases in the money supply ; however, economic debates about the relationship between money supply and price levels have led to its primary use today in describing price inflatio...
, exchange rates with other currencies and unemployment
Unemployment

File:World map of countries by rate of unemployment.pngUnemployment occurs when a person is available to work and currently seeking work, but the person is without Wage labour....
. Where currency is under a monopoly of issuance, or where there is a regulated system of issuing currency through banks which are tied to a central bank, the monetary authority has the ability to alter the money supply and thus influence the interest rate (in order to achieve policy goals). The beginning of monetary policy as such comes from the late 19th century, where it was used to maintain the gold standard
Gold standard

The gold standard is a monetary system in which a region's common media of exchange are paper notes that are normally freely convertible into pre-set, fixed quantities of gold....
.

A policy is referred to as contractionary
Contractionary monetary policy

Contractionary monetary policy is monetary policy that seeks to reduce the size of the money supply. They are fiscal policies, like lower spending and higher taxes, that reduce economic growth....
 if it reduces the size of the money supply or raises the interest rate. An expansionary
Expansionary monetary policy

Expansionary monetary policy is Monetary_policy that seeks to increase the size of the Money_supply. In most nations, monetary policy is controlled by either a Central_bank or a Finance_ministry....
 policy increases the size of the money supply, or decreases the interest rate. Furthermore, monetary policies are described as follows: accommodative, if the interest rate set by the central monetary authority is intended to create economic growth; neutral, if it is intended neither to create growth nor combat inflation; or tight if intended to reduce inflation.

There are several monetary policy tools available to achieve these ends: increasing interest rates by fiat; reducing the monetary base
Monetary base

In economics, the monetary base is a term relating to the money supply, the amount of money in the economy. The monetary base comprises only coins, paper money, and commercial banks' bank reserves with the central bank....
; and increasing reserve requirement
Reserve requirement

The reserve requirement is a bank regulation that sets the minimum bank reserves each bank must hold to customer Deposit account and Promissory note....
s. All have the effect of contracting the money supply
Money supply

In economics, money supply, or money stock, is the total amount of money available in an economy at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include currency in circulation and demand deposits....
; and, if reversed, expand the money supply. Since the 1970s, monetary policy has generally been formed separately from fiscal policy
Fiscal policy

In economics, fiscal policy is the use of government spending and revenue collection to influence the economy.Fiscal policy can be contrasted with the other main type of economic policy, monetary policy, which attempts to stabilize the economy by controlling interest rates and the supply of money....
. Even prior to the 1970s, the Bretton Woods system
Bretton Woods system

The Bretton Woods system of money management established the rules for commerce and finance relations among the world's major developed country in the mid 20th century....
 still ensured that most nations would form the two policies separately.

Within almost all modern nations, special institutions (such as the Bank of England
Bank of England

The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom and is the model on which most modern, large central banks have been based. Since 1946 it has been a Nationalisation institution....
, the European Central Bank
European Central Bank

The European Central Bank is one of the world's most important central banks, responsible for monetary policy covering the 16 member States of the Eurozone....
, the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve System

The Federal Reserve System is the central banking system of the United States. Created in 1913 by the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, it is a quasi-public banking system that comprises the presidentially appointed Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.; the Federal Open Market Committee; twelve regiona...
 in the United States, the Bank of Japan
Bank of Japan

is the central bank of Japan....
 or Nippon Ginko, the Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada

The Bank of Canada is Canada's central bank. It was created by the Bank of Canada Act of 1934, to "promote the economic and financial well-being of Canada." It is the sole issuer of Canadian banknotes in Canada, and the central bank for the Canadian dollar....
 or the Reserve Bank of Australia
Reserve Bank of Australia

File:Reserve Bank of Australia - Canberra.jpgThe Reserve Bank of Australia came into being on 14 January 1960 to operate as Australia's central bank and banknote issuing authority....
) exist which have the task of executing the monetary policy and often independently of the executive
Executive (government)

Sorry, no overview for this topic
. In general, these institutions are called central bank
Central bank

A central bank, reserve bank, or monetary authority is the entity responsible for the monetary policy of a country or of a group of member states....
s and often have other responsibilities such as supervising the smooth operation of the financial system.

The primary tool of monetary policy is open market operation
Open market operation

Open market operations are the means of implementing monetary policy by which a central bank controls its national money supply by buying and selling government Security , or other financial instruments....
s. This entails managing the quantity of money in circulation through the buying and selling of various credit instruments, foreign currencies or commodities. All of these purchases or sales result in more or less base currency entering or leaving market circulation.

Usually, the short term goal of open market operations is to achieve a specific short term interest rate target. In other instances, monetary policy might instead entail the targeting of a specific exchange rate relative to some foreign currency or else relative to gold. For example, in the case of the USA the Federal Reserve targets the federal funds rate
Federal funds rate

In the United States, the Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate at which private depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions, usually overnight....
, the rate at which member banks lend to one another overnight; however, the monetary policy of China is to target the exchange rate
Exchange rate

In finance, the exchange rates between two currency specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. It is the value of a foreign nation?s currency in terms of the home nation?s currency....
 between the Chinese renminbi
Renminbi

The renminbi is the currency of the People's Republic of China, whose principal unit is the Chinese yuan , subdivided into 10 jiao , each of 10 fen ....
 and a basket of foreign currencies.

The other primary means of conducting monetary policy include: (i) Discount window
Discount window

The discount window is an instrument of monetary policy that allows eligible institutions to borrow money from the central bank, usually on a short-term basis, to meet temporary shortages of liquidity caused by internal or external disruptions....
 lending (lender of last resort
Lender of last resort

A lender of last resort is an institution willing to extend Credit when no one else will....
); (ii) Fractional deposit lending (changes in the reserve requirement); (iii) Moral suasion (cajoling certain market players to achieve specified outcomes); (iv) "Open mouth operations" (talking monetary policy with the market).

History of monetary policy

Monetary policy is primarily associated with interest rate
Interest rate

An interest rate is the price a borrower pays for the use of money they do not own, for instance a small company might borrow from a bank to kick start their business, and the return a lender receives for deferring the use of funds, by lending it to the borrower....
 and credit
Credit (finance)

Credit is the provision of resources by one party to another party where that second party does not reimburse the first party immediately, thereby generating a debt, and instead arranges either to repay or return those resources at a later date....
. For many centuries there were only two forms of monetary policy: (i) Decisions about coinage; (ii) Decisions to print paper money
Paper Money

Paper Money is the second album by the band Montrose . It was released in 1974 and was the last album to feature Sammy Hagar as lead vocalist....
 to create credit. Interest rates, while now thought of as part of monetary authority, were not generally coordinated with the other forms of monetary policy during this time. Monetary policy was seen as an executive decision, and was generally in the hands of the authority with seigniorage
Seigniorage

Seigniorage , also spelled seignorage or seigneurage, is the net revenue derived from the issuing of currency....
, or the power to coin. With the advent of larger trading networks came the ability to set the price between gold and silver, and the price of the local currency to foreign currencies. This official price could be enforced by law, even if it varied from the market price.

With the creation of the Bank of England
Bank of England

The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom and is the model on which most modern, large central banks have been based. Since 1946 it has been a Nationalisation institution....
 in 1694, which acquired the responsibility to print notes and back them with gold, the idea of monetary policy as independent of executive action began to be established. The goal of monetary policy was to maintain the value of the coinage, print notes which would trade at par to specie, and prevent coins from leaving circulation. The establishment of central banks by industrializing nations was associated then with the desire to maintain the nation's peg to the gold standard
Gold standard

The gold standard is a monetary system in which a region's common media of exchange are paper notes that are normally freely convertible into pre-set, fixed quantities of gold....
, and to trade in a narrow band with other gold-backed currencies. To accomplish this end, central banks as part of the gold standard began setting the interest rates that they charged, both their own borrowers, and other banks who required liquidity. The maintenance of a gold standard required almost monthly adjustments of interest rates.

During the 1870-1920 period the industrialized nations set up central banking systems, with one of the last being the Federal Reserve in 1913. By this point the role of the central bank as the "lender of last resort" was understood. It was also increasingly understood that interest rates had an effect on the entire economy, in no small part because of the marginal revolution
Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution is a blog focused on economics run by economists Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok, both of whom teach at George Mason University....
 in economics, which focused on how many more, or how many fewer, people would make a decision based on a change in the economic trade-offs. It also became clear that there was a business cycle
Business cycle

The term business cycle or economic cycle refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years, around a long-term growth trend....
, and economic theory began understanding the relationship of interest rates to that cycle. (Nevertheless, steering a whole economy by influencing the interest rate has often been described as trying to steer an oil tanker with a canoe paddle.) Research by Cass Business School has also suggested that perhaps it is the central bank policies of expansionary and contractionary policies that are causing the economic cycle; evidence can be found by looking at the lack of cycles in economies before central banking policies existed.

The advancement of monetary policy as a pseudo scientific discipline has been quite rapid in the last 150 years, and it has increased especially rapidly in the last 50 years. Monetary policy has grown from simply increasing the monetary supply enough to keep up with both population growth and economic activity. It must now take into account such diverse factors as:

  • short term interest rates;
  • long term interest rates;
  • velocity of money through the economy;
  • exchange rate
    Exchange rate

    In finance, the exchange rates between two currency specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. It is the value of a foreign nation?s currency in terms of the home nation?s currency....
    s;
  • credit quality;
  • bonds
    Bond (finance)

    In finance, a bond is a debt security , in which the authorized issuer owes the holders a debt and, depending on the terms of the bond, is obliged to pay interest and/or to repay the principal at a later date, termed Maturity ....
     and equities (corporate ownership and debt);
  • government versus private sector spending/savings;
  • international capital flows of money on large scales;
  • financial derivatives
    Derivative (finance)

    Derivatives are financial contracts, or financial instruments, whose values are derived from the value of something else . The underlying on which a derivative is based can be an asset , an index , or other items ....
     such as option
    Option (finance)

    In finance, an option is a contract between a buyer and a seller that gives the buyer the right?but not the obligation?to buy or to sell a particular asset at a later time at an agreed price....
    s, swaps
    Swap (finance)

    In finance, a swap is a derivative in which two counterparty agree to trade one stream of cash flows against another stream. These streams are called the legs of the swap....
    , futures contract
    Futures contract

    In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract, traded on a futures exchange, to buy or sell a standardized quantity of a specified commodity of standardized quality at a certain date in the future, at a price determined by the instantaneous equilibrium between the forces of supply and demand among competing buy and sell orders...
    s, etc.


A small but vocal group of people advocate for a return to the gold standard (the elimination of the dollar's fiat currency status and even of the Federal Reserve Bank). Their argument is basically that monetary policy is fraught with risk and these risks will result in drastic harm to the populace should monetary policy fail. Others see another problem with our current monetary policy. The problem for them is not that our money has nothing physical to define its value, but that fractional reserve lending of that money as a debt to the recipient, rather than a credit, causes all but a small proportion of society (including all governments) to be perpetually in debt.

In fact, many economists disagree with returning to a gold standard. They argue that doing so would drastically limit the money supply, and throw away 100 years of advancement in monetary policy. The sometimes complex financial transactions that make big business (especially international business) easier and safer would be much more difficult if not impossible. Moreover, shifting risk to different people/companies that specialize in monitoring and using risk can turn any financial risk into a known dollar amount and therefore make business predictable and more profitable for everyone involved.

Trends in central banking

The central bank influences interest rates by expanding or contracting the monetary base, which consists of currency
Currency

A currency is a Medium of exchange, facilitating the trade of goods and/or Service s. It is coins and paper bills used as money. It is one form of money, where money is anything that serves as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a standard of value....
 in circulation and banks' reserves on deposit at the central bank. The primary way that the central bank can affect the monetary base is by open market operations or sales and purchases of second hand government debt, or by changing the reserve requirement
Reserve requirement

The reserve requirement is a bank regulation that sets the minimum bank reserves each bank must hold to customer Deposit account and Promissory note....
s. If the central bank wishes to lower interest rates, it purchases government debt, thereby increasing the amount of cash in circulation or crediting banks' reserve accounts. Alternatively, it can lower the interest rate on discounts or overdrafts (loans to banks secured by suitable collateral, specified by the central bank). If the interest rate on such transactions is sufficiently low, commercial banks can borrow from the central bank to meet reserve requirements and use the additional liquidity to expand their balance sheets, increasing the credit available to the economy. Lowering reserve requirements has a similar effect, freeing up funds for banks to increase loans or buy other profitable assets.

A central bank can only operate a truly independent monetary policy when the exchange rate
Exchange rate

In finance, the exchange rates between two currency specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. It is the value of a foreign nation?s currency in terms of the home nation?s currency....
 is floating. If the exchange rate is pegged or managed in any way, the central bank will have to purchase or sell foreign exchange
Foreign exchange

Foreign exchange may refer to:* Exchanging money in one currency for another, traded on foreign exchange markets* retail forex platform, a trading platform...
. These transactions in foreign exchange will have an effect on the monetary base analogous to open market purchases and sales of government debt; if the central bank buys foreign exchange, the monetary base expands, and vice versa. But even in the case of a pure floating exchange rate, central banks and monetary authorities can at best "lean against the wind" in a world where capital is mobile.

Accordingly, the management of the exchange rate will influence domestic monetary conditions. In order to maintain its monetary policy target, the central bank will have to sterilize or offset its foreign exchange operations. For example, if a central bank buys foreign exchange (to counteract appreciation of the exchange rate), base money will increase. Therefore, to sterilize that increase, the central bank must also sell government debt to contract the monetary base by an equal amount. It follows that turbulent activity in foreign exchange markets can cause a central bank to lose control of domestic monetary policy when it is also managing the exchange rate.

In the 1980s, many economists began to believe that making a nation's central bank independent of the rest of executive government
Executive (government)

Sorry, no overview for this topic
 is the best way to ensure an optimal monetary policy, and those central banks which did not have independence began to gain it. This is to avoid overt manipulation of the tools of monetary policies to effect political goals, such as re-electing the current government. Independence typically means that the members of the committee which conducts monetary policy have long, fixed terms. Obviously, this is a somewhat limited independence.

In the 1990s, central banks began adopting formal, public inflation targets with the goal of making the outcomes, if not the process, of monetary policy more transparent. In other words, a central bank may have an inflation target of 2% for a given year, and if inflation turns out to be 5%, then the central bank will typically have to submit an explanation.

The Bank of England exemplifies both these trends. It became independent of government through the Bank of England Act 1998 and adopted an inflation target of 2.5% RPI (now 2% of CPI).

The debate rages on about whether monetary policy can smooth business cycles or not. A central conjecture of Keynesian economics
Keynesian economics

Keynesian economics The theories forming the basis of Keynesian economics were first presented in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, published in 1936....
 is that the central bank can stimulate aggregate demand
Aggregate demand

In economics, aggregate demand is the total demand for final goods and services in the economy at a given time and price level. It is the amount of goods and services in the economy that will be purchased at all possible price levels....
 in the short run, because a significant number of prices in the economy are fixed in the short run and firms will produce as many goods and services as are demanded (in the long run, however, money is neutral, as in the neoclassical model
Neoclassical economics

Neoclassical economics is a term variously used for approaches to economics focusing on the determination of prices, outputs, and income distribution s in markets through supply and demand, often as mediated through a hypothesized maximization of income-constrained utility by individuals and of cost-constrained profits of firms employing avai...
). There is also the Austrian school of economics, which includes Friedrich von Hayek and Ludwig von Mises
Ludwig von Mises

Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises was an Austrian economics, philosopher, and liberalism who had a major influence on the modern libertarianism movement....
's arguments, but most economists fall into either the Keynesian or neoclassical camps on this issue.

Developing countries

Developing countries may have problems establishing an effective operating monetary policy. The primary difficulty is that few developing countries have deep markets in government debt. The matter is further complicated by the difficulties in forecasting money demand and fiscal pressure to levy the inflation
Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. The term "inflation" once referred to increases in the money supply ; however, economic debates about the relationship between money supply and price levels have led to its primary use today in describing price inflatio...
 tax by expanding the monetary base rapidly. In general, the central banks in many developing countries have poor records in managing monetary policy. This is often because the monetary authority in a developing country is not independent of government, so good monetary policy takes a backseat to the political desires of the government or are used to pursue other non-monetary goals. For this and other reasons, developing countries that want to establish credible monetary policy may institute a currency board or adopt dollarization. Such forms of monetary institutions thus essentially tie the hands of the government from interference and, it is hoped, that such policies will import the monetary policy of the anchor nation.

Recent attempts at liberalizing and reforming the financial markets (particularly the recapitalization of banks and other financial institutions in Nigeria
Nigeria

Nigeria, officially the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is a federation constitutional republic comprising States of Nigeria and one Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria....
 and elsewhere) are gradually providing the latitude required in order to implement monetary policy frameworks by the relevant central banks.

Types of monetary policy

In practice, all types of monetary policy involve modifying the amount of base currency (M0) in circulation. This process of changing the liquidity of base currency through the open sales and purchases of (government-issued) debt and credit instruments is called open market operations.

Constant market transactions by the monetary authority modify the supply of currency and this impacts other market variables such as short term interest rates and the exchange rate.

The distinction between the various types of monetary policy lies primarily with the set of instruments and target variables that are used by the monetary authority to achieve their goals.

The different types of policy are also called monetary regimes, in parallel to exchange rate regime
Exchange rate regime

The exchange rate regime is the way a country manages its currency in respect to foreign currencies and the foreign exchange market. It is closely related to monetary policy and the two are generally dependent on many of the same factors....
s. A fixed exchange rate is also an exchange rate regime; The Gold standard results in a relatively fixed regime towards the currency of other countries on the gold standard and a floating regime towards those that are not. Targeting inflation, the price level or other monetary aggregates implies floating exchange rate unless the management of the relevant foreign currencies is tracking the exact same variables (such as a harmonized consumer price index).

Inflation targeting

Under this policy approach the target is to keep inflation
Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. The term "inflation" once referred to increases in the money supply ; however, economic debates about the relationship between money supply and price levels have led to its primary use today in describing price inflatio...
, under a particular definition such as Consumer Price Index
Consumer price index

A consumer price index is a measure of the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households. It is a price index determined by measuring the price of a standard group of goods meant to represent the typical market basket of a typical urban consumer....
, within a desired range.

The inflation target is achieved through periodic adjustments to the Central Bank interest rate
Interest rate

An interest rate is the price a borrower pays for the use of money they do not own, for instance a small company might borrow from a bank to kick start their business, and the return a lender receives for deferring the use of funds, by lending it to the borrower....
 target. The interest rate used is generally the interbank rate at which banks lend to each other overnight for cash flow purposes. Depending on the country this particular interest rate might be called the cash rate or something similar.

The interest rate target is maintained for a specific duration using open market operations. Typically the duration that the interest rate target is kept constant will vary between months and years. This interest rate target is usually reviewed on a monthly or quarterly basis by a policy committee.

Changes to the interest rate target are made in response to various market indicators in an attempt to forecast economic trends and in so doing keep the market on track towards achieving the defined inflation target. For example, one simple method of inflation targeting called the Taylor rule
Taylor rule

A Taylor rule is a monetary policy rule that stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual Gross domestic product from potential output GDP and of actual inflation rates from a target inflation rates....
 adjusts the interest rate in response to changes in the inflation rate and the output gap. The rule was proposed by John B. Taylor
John B. Taylor

John Brian Taylor is an economics professor at Stanford University.Born in Yonkers, New York, he earned his A.B. from Princeton University in 1968 and Ph.D....
 of Stanford University
Stanford University

Leland Stanford Junior University, commonly referred to as Stanford University or Stanford, is a private university research university located in Stanford, California, California, United States....
.

The inflation targeting approach to monetary policy approach was pioneered in New Zealand. It is currently used in Australia
Australia

Australia, officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country in the southern hemisphere comprising the Australia of the world's smallest continent, the major island of Tasmania, and numerous list of islands of Australia in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans....
, Canada
Canada

Canada is a country occupying most of northern North America, extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west and northward into the Arctic Ocean....
, Chile
Chile

Chile, officially the Republic of Chile , is a country in South America occupying a long and narrow coastal strip wedged between the Andes mountains and the Pacific Ocean....
, the Eurozone
Eurozone

The Eurozone is a currency union of 16 Member State of the European Union which have adopted the euro as their sole legal tender. It currently consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain....
, New Zealand
New Zealand

New Zealand is an island country in the south-western Pacific Ocean comprising two main landmasses , and numerous Islands of New Zealand, most notably Stewart Island/Rakiura and the Chatham Islands....
, Norway
Norway

Norway , officially the Kingdom of Norway, is a constitutional monarchy in Northern Europe that occupies the western portion of the Scandinavian Peninsula....
, Iceland
Iceland

Iceland, officially the Republic of Iceland , is an island country located in the North Atlantic Ocean between mainland Europe and Greenland....
, Philippines
Philippines

The Philippines, officially known as the Republic of the Philippines, is a country in Southeast Asia with Manila as its capital city. It comprises 7,107 islands in the western Pacific Ocean....
, Poland
Poland

Poland , officially the Republic of Poland , is a country in Central Europe. Poland is bordered by Germany to the west; the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south; Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania to the east; and the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian Enclave and exclave, to the north....
, Sweden
Sweden

Sweden , officially the Kingdom of Sweden , is a Nordic countries on the Scandinavian Peninsula in Northern Europe. Sweden has land borders with Norway to the west and Finland to the northeast, and it is connected to Denmark by the ?resund Bridge in the south....
, South Africa
South Africa

The Republic of South Africa, also known by Official names of South Africa, is a country located at the southern tip of the continent of Africa....
, Turkey
Turkey

Turkey , known officially as the Republic of Turkey , is a Eurasian country that stretches across the Anatolian peninsula in southwest Asia and Thrace in the Balkans region of Southern Europe....
, and the United Kingdom
United Kingdom

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom , the UK or Britain,is a sovereign state located off the northwestern coast of continental Europe....
.

Price level targeting

Price level targeting is similar to inflation targeting except that CPI growth in one year is offset in subsequent years such that over time the price level on aggregate does not move.

Something similar to price level targeting was tried by Sweden
Sweden

Sweden , officially the Kingdom of Sweden , is a Nordic countries on the Scandinavian Peninsula in Northern Europe. Sweden has land borders with Norway to the west and Finland to the northeast, and it is connected to Denmark by the ?resund Bridge in the south....
 in the 1930s, and seems to have contributed to the relatively good performance of the Swedish economy during the Great Depression
Great Depression

File:International depression.pngThe Great Depression was a worldwide economic Recession starting in most places in 1929 and ending at different times in the 1930s or early 1940s for different countries....
. As of 2004, no country operates monetary policy based on a price level target.

Monetary aggregates

In the 1980s, several countries used an approach based on a constant growth in the money supply. This approach was refined to include different classes of money and credit (M0, M1 etc). In the USA this approach to monetary policy was discontinued with the selection of Alan Greenspan
Alan Greenspan

Alan Greenspan is an United States economist and was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States from 1987 to 2006. He currently works as a private advisor and providing consulting for firms through his company, Greenspan Associates LLC....
 as Fed Chairman.

This approach is also sometimes called monetarism
Monetarism

Monetarism is a school of economic thought concerning the determination of measures of national income and output and monetary economics. It focuses on the supply of money in an economy as the primary means by which the rate of inflation is determined....
.

While most monetary policy focuses on a price signal of one form or another, this approach is focused on monetary quantities.

Fixed exchange rate


This policy is based on maintaining a fixed exchange rate
Fixed exchange rate

A fixed exchange rate, sometimes called a pegged exchange rate, is a type of exchange rate regime wherein a currency's value is matched to the value of another single currency or to a basket of other currencies, or to another measure of value, such as gold standard....
 with a foreign currency. There are varying degrees of fixed exchange rates, which can be ranked in relation to how rigid the fixed exchange rate is with the anchor nation.

Under a system of fiat fixed rates, the local government or monetary authority declares a fixed exchange rate but does not actively buy or sell currency to maintain the rate. Instead, the rate is enforced by non-convertibility measures (e.g. capital control
Capital control

In economics, capital control is the monetary policy device that a country's government uses to regulate the flows into and out of a country's capital account, i.e., the flows of investment-oriented money into and out of a country or currency....
s, import/export licenses, etc.). In this case there is a black market exchange rate where the currency trades at its market/unofficial rate.

Under a system of fixed-convertibility, currency is bought and sold by the central bank or monetary authority on a daily basis to achieve the target exchange rate. This target rate may be a fixed level or a fixed band within which the exchange rate may fluctuate until the monetary authority intervenes to buy or sell as necessary to maintain the exchange rate within the band. (In this case, the fixed exchange rate with a fixed level can be seen as a special case of the fixed exchange rate with bands where the bands are set to zero.)

Under a system of fixed exchange rates maintained by a currency board every unit of local currency must be backed by a unit of foreign currency (correcting for the exchange rate). This ensures that the local monetary base does not inflate without being backed by hard currency and eliminates any worries about a run on the local currency by those wishing to convert the local currency to the hard (anchor) currency.

Under dollarization
Dollarization

Dollarization occurs when the inhabitants of a country use foreign currency in parallel to or instead of the domestic currency.Dollarization can occur...
, foreign currency (usually the US dollar, hence the term "dollarization") is used freely as the medium of exchange either exclusively or in parallel with local currency. This outcome can come about because the local population has lost all faith in the local currency, or it may also be a policy of the government (usually to rein in inflation and import credible monetary policy).

These policies often abdicate monetary policy to the foreign monetary authority or government as monetary policy in the pegging nation must align with monetary policy in the anchor nation to maintain the exchange rate. The degree to which local monetary policy becomes dependent on the anchor nation depends on factors such as capital mobility, openness, credit channels and other economic factors.

See also: List of fixed currencies

Gold standard


The gold standard
Gold standard

The gold standard is a monetary system in which a region's common media of exchange are paper notes that are normally freely convertible into pre-set, fixed quantities of gold....
 is a system in which the price of the national currency as measured in units of gold bars and is kept constant by the daily buying and selling of base currency to other countries and nationals. (i.e. open market operations, cf. above). The selling of gold is very important for economic growth and stability.

The gold standard might be regarded as a special case of the "Fixed Exchange Rate" policy. And the gold price might be regarded as a special type of "Commodity Price Index".

Today this type of monetary policy is not used anywhere in the world, although a form of gold standard was used widely across the world prior to 1971. For details see the Bretton Woods system
Bretton Woods system

The Bretton Woods system of money management established the rules for commerce and finance relations among the world's major developed country in the mid 20th century....
. Its major advantages were simplicity and transparency.

Monetary policy tools


Monetary base

Monetary policy can be implemented by changing the size of the monetary base
Monetary base

In economics, the monetary base is a term relating to the money supply, the amount of money in the economy. The monetary base comprises only coins, paper money, and commercial banks' bank reserves with the central bank....
. This directly changes the total amount of money circulating in the economy. A central bank can use open market operations to change the monetary base. The central bank would buy/sell bonds
Bond (finance)

In finance, a bond is a debt security , in which the authorized issuer owes the holders a debt and, depending on the terms of the bond, is obliged to pay interest and/or to repay the principal at a later date, termed Maturity ....
 in exchange for hard currency. When the central bank disburses/collects this hard currency payment, it alters the amount of currency in the economy, thus altering the monetary base.

Reserve requirements

The monetary authority exerts regulatory control over banks. Monetary policy can be implemented by changing the proportion of total assets that banks must hold in reserve with the central bank. Banks only maintain a small portion of their assets as cash available for immediate withdrawal; the rest is invested in illiquid assets like mortgages and loans. By changing the proportion of total assets to be held as liquid cash, the Federal Reserve changes the availability of loanable funds. This acts as a change in the money supply.

Discount window lending

Many central banks or finance ministries have the authority to lend funds to financial institutions within their country. By calling in existing loans or extending new loans, the monetary authority can directly change the size of the money supply.

Interest rates

The contraction of the monetary supply can be achieved indirectly by increasing the nominal interest rates
Nominal interest rate

In finance and economics nominal interest rate or nominal rate of interest refers to the rate of interest before adjustment for inflation ; or, for interest rates "as stated" without adjustment for the full effect of compound interest ....
. Monetary authorities in different nations have differing levels of control of economy-wide interest rates. In the United States, the Federal Reserve can set the discount rate
Discount rate

File:Bundesbank discount rate 1948 to 1998 fill grid.svgThe discount rate is an interest rate a central bank charges depository institutions that borrow reserves from it....
, as well as achieve the desired Federal funds rate
Federal funds rate

In the United States, the Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate at which private depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions, usually overnight....
 by open market operations. This rate has significant effect on other market interest rates, but there is no perfect relationship. In the United States open market operations are a relatively small part of the total volume in the bond market. One cannot set independent targets for both the monetary base and the interest rate because they are both modified by a single tool — open market operations; one must choose which one to control.

In other nations, the monetary authority may be able to mandate specific interest rates on loans, savings accounts or other financial assets. By raising the interest rate(s) under its control, a monetary authority can contract the money supply
Money supply

In economics, money supply, or money stock, is the total amount of money available in an economy at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include currency in circulation and demand deposits....
, because higher interest rates encourage savings and discourage borrowing. Both of these effects reduce the size of the money supply.

Currency board


A currency board is a monetary arrangement which pegs the monetary base of a country to that of an anchor nation. As such, it essentially operates as a hard fixed exchange rate, whereby local currency in circulation is backed by foreign currency from the anchor nation at a fixed rate. Thus, to grow the local monetary base an equivalent amount of foreign currency must be held in reserves with the currency board. This limits the possibility for the local monetary authority to inflate or pursue other objectives. The principal rationales behind a currency board are three-fold: (i) To import monetary credibility of the anchor nation; (ii) To maintain a fixed exchange rate with the anchor nation; (iii) To establish credibility with the exchange rate (the currency board arrangement is the hardest form of fixed exchange rates outside of dollarization).

In theory, it is possible that a country may peg the local currency to more than one foreign currency; although, in practice this has never happened (and it would be a more complicated to run than a simple single-currency currency board).

The currency board in question will no longer issue fiat money but instead will only issue a set number of units of local currency for each unit of foreign currency it has in its vault
Bank vault

A bank vault is a secure space where money, valuables, records, and documents can be stored. Vaults protect their contents with armored walls and a tightly fashioned door closed with a complex lock....
. The surplus on the balance of payments
Balance of payments

In economics, the balance of payments, measures the payments that flow between any individual country and all other countries. It is used to summarize all international economics transactions for that country during a specific time period, usually a year....
 of that country is reflected by higher deposits local banks hold at the central bank as well as (initially) higher deposits of the (net) exporting firms at their local banks. The growth of the domestic money supply
Money supply

In economics, money supply, or money stock, is the total amount of money available in an economy at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include currency in circulation and demand deposits....
 can now be coupled to the additional deposits of the banks at the central bank that equals additional hard foreign exchange reserves
Foreign exchange reserves

Foreign exchange reserves in a strict sense are only the foreign currency deposits and bonds held by central banks and monetary authorities....
 in the hands of the central bank. The virtue of this system is that questions of currency stability no longer apply. The drawbacks are that the country no longer has the ability to set monetary policy according to other domestic considerations, and that the fixed exchange rate will, to a large extent, also fix a country's terms of trade, irrespective of economic differences between it and its trading partners.

Hong Kong
Hong Kong

Hong Kong , officially the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, is a territory located in Southern China in East Asia, bordering the province of Guangdong to the north and facing the South China Sea to the east, west and south....
 operates a currency board, as does Bulgaria
Bulgaria

The state of Bulgaria , Scientific transliteration Balgarija, officially the Republic of Bulgaria has played a significant role in the Balkans in south-eastern Europe for over fourteen centuries....
. Estonia
Estonia

Estonia , officially the Republic of Estonia is a country in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by Finland across the Gulf of Finland, to the west by Sweden across the Baltic Sea, to the south by Latvia , and to the east by the Russia ....
 established a currency board pegged to the Deutschmark in 1992 after gaining independence, and this policy is seen as a mainstay of that country's subsequent economic success (see Economy of Estonia
Economy of Estonia

Estonia is a member of the European Union and a developed market economy.Before the Second World War Estonia's economy was based on agriculture, but there was a significant knowledge sector and growing industrial sector, similar to Finland....
 for a detailed description of the Estonian currency board). Argentina
Argentina

Argentina, officially the Argentine Republic , is a country in South America, constituted as a federation of 23 provinces and an autonomous city....
 abandoned its currency board in January 2002 after a severe recession. This emphasized the fact that currency boards are not irrevocable, and hence may be abandoned in the face of speculation
Speculation

Speculation is the assumption of the risk of loss, in return for the uncertain possibility of a reward. Only if one may safely say that a particular position involves no risk may one say, strictly speaking, that such a position represents an "investment." Financial speculation involves the trade, and short-selling of stocks, bond , commodity...
 by foreign exchange traders. Following the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995, Bosnia and Herzegovina established a currency board pegged to the Deutschmark (since 2002 replaced by the Euro).

Currency boards have advantages for small, open economies which would find independent monetary policy difficult to sustain. They can also form a credible commitment to low inflation.

A gold standard
Gold standard

The gold standard is a monetary system in which a region's common media of exchange are paper notes that are normally freely convertible into pre-set, fixed quantities of gold....
 is a special case of a currency board where the value of the national currency is linked to the value of gold instead of a foreign currency.

Monetary policy theory

Monetary policy is the process by which the government, central bank, or monetary authority of a country controls (i) the supply of money, (ii) availability of money, and (iii) cost of money or rate of interest, in order to attain a set of objectives oriented towards the growth and stability of the economy.[1] Monetary theory provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Monetary policy rests on the relationship between the rates of interest in an economy, that is the price at which money can be borrowed, and the total supply of money. Monetary policy uses a variety of tools to control one or both of these, to influence outcomes like economic growth, inflation, exchange rates with other currencies and unemployment. Where currency is under a monopoly of issuance, or where there is a regulated system of issuing currency through banks which are tied to a central bank, the monetary authority has the ability to alter the money supply and thus influence the interest rate (in order to achieve policy goals). The beginning of monetary policy as such comes from the late 19th century, where it was used to maintain the gold standard. A policy is referred to as contractionary if it reduces the size of the money supply or raises the interest rate. An expansionary policy increases the size of the money supply, or decreases the interest rate. Furthermore, monetary policies are described as follows: accommodative, if the interest rate set by the central monetary authority is intended to create economic growth; neutral, if it is intended neither to create growth nor combat inflation; or tight if intended to reduce inflation.

It is important for policymakers to make credible announcements and degrade interest rates as they are non-important and irrelevant in regarding to monetary policies. If private agents (consumers and firm
Corporation

A corporation is a legal entity separate from the persons that form it. It is a legal entity owned by individual stockholders. In British tradition it is the term designating a body corporate, where it can be either a corporation sole or a corporation aggregate ....
s) believe that policymakers are committed to lowering inflation
Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. The term "inflation" once referred to increases in the money supply ; however, economic debates about the relationship between money supply and price levels have led to its primary use today in describing price inflatio...
, they will anticipate future prices to be lower than otherwise (how those expectations are formed is an entirely different matter; compare for instance rational expectations
Rational expectations

Rational expectations is an assumption used in many contemporary Model , and also in other areas of contemporary economics and game theory and in other applications of rational choice theory....
 with adaptive expectations
Adaptive expectations

In economics, adaptive expectations means that people form their expectations about what will happen in the future based on what has happened in the past....
). If an employee expects prices to be high in the future, he or she will draw up a wage contract with a high wage to match these prices. Hence, the expectation of lower wages is reflected in wage-setting behavior between employees and employers (lower wages since prices are expected to be lower) and since wages are in fact lower there is no demand pull inflation
Demand pull inflation

Demand-pull inflation arises when aggregate demand in an economy outpaces aggregate supply. It involves inflation rising as real gross domestic product rises and unemployment falls, as the economy moves along the Phillips curve....
 because employees are receiving a smaller wage and there is no cost push inflation
Cost push inflation

Cost-push inflation is a type of inflation caused by substantial increases in the cost of important goods or services where no suitable alternative is available....
 because employers are paying out less in wages.

In order to achieve this low level of inflation, policymakers must have credible announcements; that is, private agents must believe that these announcements will reflect actual future policy. If an announcement about low-level inflation targets is made but not believed by private agents, wage-setting will anticipate high-level inflation and so wages will be higher and inflation will rise. A high wage will increase a consumer's demand (demand pull inflation
Demand pull inflation

Demand-pull inflation arises when aggregate demand in an economy outpaces aggregate supply. It involves inflation rising as real gross domestic product rises and unemployment falls, as the economy moves along the Phillips curve....
) and a firm's costs (cost push inflation
Cost push inflation

Cost-push inflation is a type of inflation caused by substantial increases in the cost of important goods or services where no suitable alternative is available....
), so inflation rises. Hence, if a policymaker's announcements regarding monetary policy are not credible, policy will not have the desired effect.

If policymakers believe that private agents anticipate low inflation, they have an incentive to adopt an expansionist monetary policy (where the marginal benefit of increasing economic output outweighs the marginal cost
Marginal cost

In economics and finance, marginal cost is the change in total cost that arises when the quantity produced changes by one unit. It is the cost of producing one more unit of a good....
 of inflation); however, assuming private agents have rational expectations
Rational expectations

Rational expectations is an assumption used in many contemporary Model , and also in other areas of contemporary economics and game theory and in other applications of rational choice theory....
, they know that policymakers have this incentive. Hence, private agents know that if they anticipate low inflation, an expansionist policy will be adopted that causes a rise in inflation. Consequently, (unless policymakers can make their announcement of low inflation credible), private agents expect high inflation. This anticipation is fulfilled through adaptive expectation (wage-setting behavior);so, there is higher inflation (without the benefit of increased output). Hence, unless credible announcements can be made, expansionary monetary policy will fail.

Announcements can be made credible in various ways. One is to establish an independent central bank with low inflation targets (but no output targets). Hence, private agents know that inflation will be low because it is set by an independent body. Central banks can be given incentives to meet their targets (for example, larger budgets, a wage bonus for the head of the bank) in order to increase their reputation and signal a strong commitment to a policy goal. Reputation is an important element in monetary policy implementation. But the idea of reputation should not be confused with commitment. While a central bank might have a favorable reputation due to good performance in conducting monetary policy, the same central bank might not have chosen any particular form of commitment (such as targeting a certain range for inflation). Reputation plays a crucial role in determining how much would markets believe the announcement of a particular commitment to a policy goal but both concepts should not be assimilated. Also, note that under rational expectations, it is not necessary for the policymaker to have established its reputation through past policy actions; as an example, the reputation of the head of the central bank might be derived entirely from her or his ideology, professional background, public statements, etc. In fact it has been argued (add citation to Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target" in 'Quarterly Journal of Economics' #100, pp. 1169-1189) that in order to prevent some pathologies related to the time-inconsistency of monetary policy implementation (in particular excessive inflation), the head of a central bank should have a larger distaste for inflation than the rest of the economy on average. Hence the reputation of a particular central bank is not necessary tied to past performance, but rather to particular institutional arrangements that the markets can use to form inflation expectations.

Despite the frequent discussion of credibility as it relates to monetary policy, the exact meaning of credibility is rarely defined. Such lack of clarity can serve to lead policy away from what is believed to be the most beneficial. For example, capability to serve the public interest is one definition of credibility often associated with central banks. The reliability with which a central bank keeps its promises is also a common definition. While everyone most likely agrees a central bank should not lie to the public, wide disagreement exists on how a central bank can best serve the public interest. Therefore, lack of definition can lead people to believe they are supporting one particular policy of credibility when they are really supporting another.

Monetary policy used by various nations


  • Australia - Inflation targeting
  • Brazil - Inflation targeting
  • Canada - Inflation targeting
  • Chile - Inflation targeting
  • China - Monetary Targeting and targets a currency basket
  • Eurozone - Inflation Targeting
  • Hong Kong - Currency board (fixed to US dollar)
  • New Zealand - Inflation targeting
  • Singapore - Exchange rate targeting
  • South Africa - Inflation targeting
  • Turkey - Inflation targeting
  • United Kingdom - Inflation Targeting, alongside secondary targets on 'output and employment'.
  • United States - Mixed policy (and since the 1980s it is well fitted/described by the "Taylor rule
    Taylor rule

    A Taylor rule is a monetary policy rule that stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to divergences of actual Gross domestic product from potential output GDP and of actual inflation rates from a target inflation rates....
    " which shows that the Fed funds rate responds to shocks in inflation and output)


See also

  • Greenspan put
    Greenspan put

    The "Greenspan Put" refers to the monetary policy that Alan Greenspan, the former Chairman of the United States of America Federal Reserve Board, and the Fed members fostered from the late 1980s to the middle of 2000....
  • Quantitative easing
    Quantitative easing

    The term quantitative easing refers to the creation of new money 'out of thin air' by a central bank for injection into the banking system in an attempt to increase the money supply....
  • Model (macroeconomics)
    Model (macroeconomics)

    A model in macroeconomics is a logical, mathematical, and/or computational framework designed to describe the operation of a national or regional economy, and especially the dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the le...
  • Fiscal policy
    Fiscal policy

    In economics, fiscal policy is the use of government spending and revenue collection to influence the economy.Fiscal policy can be contrasted with the other main type of economic policy, monetary policy, which attempts to stabilize the economy by controlling interest rates and the supply of money....