The Next 100 Years
Encyclopedia
The Next 100 Years is a 2009 non-fiction book by George Friedman
. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.
in the 2010s. Friedman asserts that around 2015, the United States will become a close ally to some Eastern Europe
an countries, who will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. Friedman speculates in the book that the United States
will probably become a close ally of Poland
, the Czech Republic
, Hungary
, and Romania
, who may form a military alliance during this period. According to Friedman's prediction, around the year 2020, Russia will collapse, fragment, and disintegrate from the economic and political pressure of a second cold war.
Around this time, 2020, China
will politically and culturally fragment as well, according to Friedman's prediction. Friedman asserts that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society that will result in regional fragmentation of the country, primarily to economic reasons. Friedman asserts that China will remain formally united, but the central government of China will gradually lose much of its real power.
In the 2020s, and 2030's, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia
, a new Turkish empire, a new Japanese empire, and a political and military alliance of Eastern European nations, referred to be Friedman as the "Polish Bloc". The United States will be allied with all three powers initially, but will gradually become an adversary of both the new Turkish empire and Japanese empire, who will grow in power in the 2020s and 2030s, and begin to threaten American interests. Friedman states that the new Japanese empire and new Turkish empire will probably form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States. Friedman also speculates that Germany
and Mexico
may possibly join this anti-United States coalition, however, he thinks it generally unlikely. Friedman states that in this conflict/confrontation the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc", and probably with China
, India
,a united Korea
and Great Britain
which enters it after fearing a Europe being dominated as France
and Germany side with Turkey as well.
Friedman predicts a third world war between these two coalitions sometime around 2050. He asserts that the war will probably be started by a coordinated sneak attack by the Japanese and Turkish empires. He states that the war will be a form of limited war
, and that it will be very different in its conduct than a total war
, such as World War II
of the 20th century. He predicts that the United States and its allies will win, and that the war will last two to three years. Freidman predicts after the war the United States will enjoy a properous decade in the 2060's due to the fact that no nation could challenge it at this time and that a new alternative to energy from solar spaced based power systems would redefine the use of power and resources.
Friedman predicts that in the decades following World War Three, starting in the 2070's, tensions between Mexico and the United States will rise. By this time, many parts of the United States, especially the South West
, will become predominantly, ethnically, culturally and socially Mexican. The United States would start seeing immigration decades after the immigration policies of 2030, as a problem and Mexican immigrants behave differently starting in the 2030's due to the proximity of their homeland. During this period, Mexican economic growth and population growth will be substantial, Friedman asserts. Mexico will be in a position to militarily and geopolitically challenge the United States for dominance of North America
in the last quarter of the 21st century. A conflict which would likely continue into the 22nd Century
.
Friedman also makes many cultural and technological predictions for the 21st century.
George Friedman
George Friedman is an American political scientist and author. He is the founder, chief intelligence officer, financial overseer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor...
. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.
Overview
Friedman predicts a second American cold war with RussiaRussia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
in the 2010s. Friedman asserts that around 2015, the United States will become a close ally to some Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe is the eastern part of Europe. The term has widely disparate geopolitical, geographical, cultural and socioeconomic readings, which makes it highly context-dependent and even volatile, and there are "almost as many definitions of Eastern Europe as there are scholars of the region"...
an countries, who will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. Friedman speculates in the book that the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
will probably become a close ally of Poland
Poland
Poland , officially the Republic of Poland , is a country in Central Europe bordered by Germany to the west; the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south; Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania to the east; and the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave, to the north...
, the Czech Republic
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic is a landlocked country in Central Europe. The country is bordered by Poland to the northeast, Slovakia to the east, Austria to the south, and Germany to the west and northwest....
, Hungary
Hungary
Hungary , officially the Republic of Hungary , is a landlocked country in Central Europe. It is situated in the Carpathian Basin and is bordered by Slovakia to the north, Ukraine and Romania to the east, Serbia and Croatia to the south, Slovenia to the southwest and Austria to the west. The...
, and Romania
Romania
Romania is a country located at the crossroads of Central and Southeastern Europe, on the Lower Danube, within and outside the Carpathian arch, bordering on the Black Sea...
, who may form a military alliance during this period. According to Friedman's prediction, around the year 2020, Russia will collapse, fragment, and disintegrate from the economic and political pressure of a second cold war.
Around this time, 2020, China
China
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
will politically and culturally fragment as well, according to Friedman's prediction. Friedman asserts that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society that will result in regional fragmentation of the country, primarily to economic reasons. Friedman asserts that China will remain formally united, but the central government of China will gradually lose much of its real power.
In the 2020s, and 2030's, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia
Eurasia
Eurasia is a continent or supercontinent comprising the traditional continents of Europe and Asia ; covering about 52,990,000 km2 or about 10.6% of the Earth's surface located primarily in the eastern and northern hemispheres...
, a new Turkish empire, a new Japanese empire, and a political and military alliance of Eastern European nations, referred to be Friedman as the "Polish Bloc". The United States will be allied with all three powers initially, but will gradually become an adversary of both the new Turkish empire and Japanese empire, who will grow in power in the 2020s and 2030s, and begin to threaten American interests. Friedman states that the new Japanese empire and new Turkish empire will probably form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States. Friedman also speculates that Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
and Mexico
Mexico
The United Mexican States , commonly known as Mexico , is a federal constitutional republic in North America. It is bordered on the north by the United States; on the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; on the southeast by Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean Sea; and on the east by the Gulf of...
may possibly join this anti-United States coalition, however, he thinks it generally unlikely. Friedman states that in this conflict/confrontation the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc", and probably with China
China
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
, India
India
India , officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous democracy in the world...
,a united Korea
Korea
Korea ) is an East Asian geographic region that is currently divided into two separate sovereign states — North Korea and South Korea. Located on the Korean Peninsula, Korea is bordered by the People's Republic of China to the northwest, Russia to the northeast, and is separated from Japan to the...
and Great Britain
Great Britain
Great Britain or Britain is an island situated to the northwest of Continental Europe. It is the ninth largest island in the world, and the largest European island, as well as the largest of the British Isles...
which enters it after fearing a Europe being dominated as France
France
The French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...
and Germany side with Turkey as well.
Friedman predicts a third world war between these two coalitions sometime around 2050. He asserts that the war will probably be started by a coordinated sneak attack by the Japanese and Turkish empires. He states that the war will be a form of limited war
Limited war
A limited war is a conflict in which the belligerents participating in the war do not expend all of each of the participants available resources at their disposal, whether human, industrial, agricultural, military, natural, technological, or otherwise in a specific conflict...
, and that it will be very different in its conduct than a total war
Total war
Total war is a war in which a belligerent engages in the complete mobilization of fully available resources and population.In the mid-19th century, "total war" was identified by scholars as a separate class of warfare...
, such as World War II
World War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
of the 20th century. He predicts that the United States and its allies will win, and that the war will last two to three years. Freidman predicts after the war the United States will enjoy a properous decade in the 2060's due to the fact that no nation could challenge it at this time and that a new alternative to energy from solar spaced based power systems would redefine the use of power and resources.
Friedman predicts that in the decades following World War Three, starting in the 2070's, tensions between Mexico and the United States will rise. By this time, many parts of the United States, especially the South West
Southwestern United States
The Southwestern United States is a region defined in different ways by different sources. Broad definitions include nearly a quarter of the United States, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah...
, will become predominantly, ethnically, culturally and socially Mexican. The United States would start seeing immigration decades after the immigration policies of 2030, as a problem and Mexican immigrants behave differently starting in the 2030's due to the proximity of their homeland. During this period, Mexican economic growth and population growth will be substantial, Friedman asserts. Mexico will be in a position to militarily and geopolitically challenge the United States for dominance of North America
North America
North America is a continent wholly within the Northern Hemisphere and almost wholly within the Western Hemisphere. It is also considered a northern subcontinent of the Americas...
in the last quarter of the 21st century. A conflict which would likely continue into the 22nd Century
22nd century
The 22nd century is a century of the Christian Era or Common Era in accordance with the Gregorian calendar. It is the upcoming century, beginning on January 1, 2101 and ending on December 31, 2200.-Events:...
.
Friedman also makes many cultural and technological predictions for the 21st century.