Election surprise
Encyclopedia
An election surprise is an event which occurs preceding an election
which has enough shock value that it may be able to sway voters in close elections. When planned, an election surprise may be an act of propaganda
. Election surprises typically fall into categories such as terrorism
, political scandal
s, etc.
There may be disagreement as to what constitutes an election surprise for several reasons:
Rumours of potential election surprises may also abound preceding an election.
The term "election surprise" may also be used to denote an election with a surprising outcome.
Election
An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy operates since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the...
which has enough shock value that it may be able to sway voters in close elections. When planned, an election surprise may be an act of propaganda
Propaganda
Propaganda is a form of communication that is aimed at influencing the attitude of a community toward some cause or position so as to benefit oneself or one's group....
. Election surprises typically fall into categories such as terrorism
Terrorism
Terrorism is the systematic use of terror, especially as a means of coercion. In the international community, however, terrorism has no universally agreed, legally binding, criminal law definition...
, political scandal
Political scandal
A political scandal is a kind of political corruption that is exposed and becomes a scandal, in which politicians or government officials are accused of engaging in various illegal, corrupt, or unethical practices...
s, etc.
There may be disagreement as to what constitutes an election surprise for several reasons:
- There may be general disagreement as to whether the event in question affected, or was intended to affect the outcome of the election, especially as the event and the election may occur in different countries.
- There may be a lack of consensus as to which party the election surprise may have helped, or was intended to help.
- The relative weight of a declaration, and the ability to catch on, help to distinguish true election surprises from minor events.
- What was a surprise for some of the population may have been obvious for another part (such as the total deaths accumulated in a military activity).
- The role a speech actSpeech actSpeech Act is a technical term in linguistics and the philosophy of language. The contemporary use of the term goes back to John L. Austin's doctrine of locutionary, illocutionary, and perlocutionary acts...
, such as an expression of opinion/research could play. The documentary Hacking DemocracyHacking DemocracyHacking Democracy is a 2006 documentary film by producer Robert Carrillo Cohen and producer / directors Russell Michaels and Simon Ardizzone, shown on HBO...
may not constitute an election surprise, whereas a statement issued by Osama bin LadenOsama bin LadenOsama bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden was the founder of the militant Islamist organization Al-Qaeda, the jihadist organization responsible for the September 11 attacks on the United States and numerous other mass-casualty attacks against civilian and military targets...
might.
Rumours of potential election surprises may also abound preceding an election.
The term "election surprise" may also be used to denote an election with a surprising outcome.
United States
- October 1980, Iranian Embassy HostagesIran hostage crisisThe Iran hostage crisis was a diplomatic crisis between Iran and the United States where 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days from November 4, 1979 to January 20, 1981, after a group of Islamist students and militants took over the American Embassy in Tehran in support of the Iranian...
. In October, 1980, preceding electionsUnited States presidential election, 1980The United States presidential election of 1980 featured a contest between incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter and his Republican opponent, Ronald Reagan, as well as Republican Congressman John B. Anderson, who ran as an independent...
in United StatesUnited StatesThe United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
on November 4, 1980, Ronald ReaganRonald ReaganRonald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor....
's election campaign manager William Casey, Laurence Silberman and George Herbert Walker Bush went to ParisParisParis is the capital and largest city in France, situated on the river Seine, in northern France, at the heart of the Île-de-France region...
, FranceFranceThe French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...
and held a series of meetings with Iranian officials from October 15 to October 20, 1980 to discuss the fate of the 52 remaining hostages taken from the US embassy building in TehranTehranTehran , sometimes spelled Teheran, is the capital of Iran and Tehran Province. With an estimated population of 8,429,807; it is also Iran's largest urban area and city, one of the largest cities in Western Asia, and is the world's 19th largest city.In the 20th century, Tehran was subject to...
, IranIranIran , officially the Islamic Republic of Iran , is a country in Southern and Western Asia. The name "Iran" has been in use natively since the Sassanian era and came into use internationally in 1935, before which the country was known to the Western world as Persia...
on November 4, 1979. Iranian officials agreed not to release the hostages prior to election dayElection Day (politics)Election Day refers to the day when general elections are held. In many countries, general elections are always held on a Sunday, to enable as many voters as possible to participate, while in other countries elections are always held on a weekday...
on November 4, 1980 in exchange for a shipment of F-4 Phantom IIF-4 Phantom IIThe McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II is a tandem two-seat, twin-engined, all-weather, long-range supersonic jet interceptor fighter/fighter-bomber originally developed for the United States Navy by McDonnell Aircraft. It first entered service in 1960 with the U.S. Navy. Proving highly adaptable,...
aircraft tires and spare parts supplied to IranIranIran , officially the Islamic Republic of Iran , is a country in Southern and Western Asia. The name "Iran" has been in use natively since the Sassanian era and came into use internationally in 1935, before which the country was known to the Western world as Persia...
from IsraelIsraelThe State of Israel is a parliamentary republic located in the Middle East, along the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea...
between October 21 and October 23, 1980 in contravention of the United StatesUnited StatesThe United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
' boycottBoycottA boycott is an act of voluntarily abstaining from using, buying, or dealing with a person, organization, or country as an expression of protest, usually for political reasons...
and the Trading with the Enemy ActTrading with the Enemy ActThe Trading with the Enemy Act, sometimes abbreviated as TWEA, is a United States federal law, , enacted in 1917 to restrict trade with countries hostile to the United States. The law gives the President the power to oversee or restrict any and all trade between the U.S. and its enemies in times of...
. The 52 hostages were finally released after 444 days in captivity on the same day, at the same hour, that Ronald ReaganRonald ReaganRonald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor....
was sworn into office on January 20, 1981. The United States CongressUnited States CongressThe United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States, consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Congress meets in the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C....
eventually held hearings in 1991 led by Lee H. HamiltonLee H. HamiltonLee Herbert Hamilton is a former member of the United States House of Representatives and currently a member of the U.S. Homeland Security Advisory Council. A member of the Democratic Party, Hamilton represented the 9th congressional district of Indiana from 1965 to 1999...
on the matter, which were underreported in the media and widely considered to be a whitewashWhitewashWhitewash, or calcimine, kalsomine, calsomine, or lime paint is a very low-cost type of paint made from slaked lime and chalk . Various other additives are also used...
, and in which "no credible evidence" was found "linking Reagan's team to the delay of the hostages' release".
- A 1976 drunk driving citation on candidate George W. BushGeorge W. BushGeorge Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
was considered an election surprise for its suspicious timing, coming out one week before the 2000 US Presidential Election.
- Madrid train bombings11 March 2004 Madrid train bombingsThe Madrid train bombings consisted of a series of coordinated bombings against the Cercanías system of Madrid, Spain on the morning of 11 March 2004 , killing 191 people and wounding 1,800...
on 11 March 2004, preceding electionsSpanish legislative election, 2004Legislative elections were held in Spain on 14 March 2004. At stake were all 350 seats in the lower house of the Cortes Generales, the Congress of Deputies, and 208 seats in upper house, the Senate. The governing People's Party was led into the campaign by Mariano Rajoy, successor to outgoing...
in SpainSpainSpain , officially the Kingdom of Spain languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Spain's official name is as follows:;;;;;;), is a country and member state of the European Union located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula...
on 14 March 2004. This led to the defeat of the sitting government subsequently leading to the Spanish withdraw from Iraq.
- The Killian documentsKillian documentsThe Killian documents controversy involved six documents critical of President George W. Bush's service in the Air National Guard in 1972–73...
, A faked set of papers provided to CBS News prior to the 2004 US Presidential Election were also considered an election surprise for the timing and negative propaganda value.
- Rep. Mark FoleyMark FoleyMark Adam Foley is a former member of the United States House of Representatives. He served from 1995 until 2006, representing the 16th District of Florida as a member of the Republican Party....
(R-FL) admitted to sending explicit instant messages to underage pages in 29 September 2006, preceding mid-term electionsUnited States general elections, 2006The 2006 United States midterm elections were held on Tuesday, November 7, 2006. All United States House of Representatives seats and one third of the United States Senate seats were contested in this election, as well as 36 state governorships, many state legislatures, four territorial...
in the United StatesUnited StatesThe United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
on 7 November, 2006. Democracts said that high ranking members of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives may have known about the events.
- Saddam HusseinSaddam HusseinSaddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti was the fifth President of Iraq, serving in this capacity from 16 July 1979 until 9 April 2003...
was found guiltyTrial of Saddam Husseinthumb|300 px| Saddam Hussein sits before an Iraqi judge at a courthouse in Baghdad, 1 July 2004.The Trial of Saddam Hussein was the trial of the deposed President of Iraq Saddam Hussein by the Iraqi Interim Government for crimes against humanity during his time in office.The Coalition Provisional...
of crimes against humanity on 5 November, 2006, preceding mid-term electionsUnited States general elections, 2006The 2006 United States midterm elections were held on Tuesday, November 7, 2006. All United States House of Representatives seats and one third of the United States Senate seats were contested in this election, as well as 36 state governorships, many state legislatures, four territorial...
in the United StatesUnited StatesThe United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
on 7 November, 2006.