Spaghetti Plots
Encyclopedia
Spaghetti plots are a method of viewing data to visualize possible flows through systems. Flows depicted in this manner appear like noodles, hence the coining of this term. This method of statistics was first used to track routing through factories. Visualizing flow in this manner can reduce inefficiency within the flow of a system. In regards to animal populations and weather buoy
s drifting through the ocean
, they are drawn to study distribution and migration patterns. Within meteorology
, these diagrams can help determine confidence in a specific weather forecast, as well as positions and intensities of high and low pressure systems. They are composed of deterministic forecasts from atmospheric model
s or their various ensemble members. Within medicine
, they can illustrate the effects of drugs on patients during drug trials.
are found where they are, and to see how topographic features (such as mountain ranges) limit their migration and range. Within mammal
distributions across central North America
, these plots have correlated their edges to regions which were glaciated within the previous ice age
, as well as certain types of vegetation.
s. A meteorological variable e.g. pressure
, temperature
, or precipitation
amount is drawn on a chart for a number of slightly different model runs from an ensemble. The model can then be stepped forward in time and the results compared and be used to gauge the amount of uncertainty in the forecast. If there is good agreement and the contours follow a recognizable pattern through the sequence, then the confidence in the forecast can be high. Conversely, if the pattern is chaotic i.e resembling a plate of spaghetti
then confidence will be low. Ensemble members will generally diverge over time and spaghetti plots are a quick way to see when this happens.
Spaghetti plots can be a more favorable choice compared to the mean-spread ensemble in determining the intensity of a coming cyclone
, anticyclone
, or upper level ridge or trough. Because ensemble forecasts naturally diverge as the days progress, the projected locations of meteorological features will spread further apart. A mean-spread diagram will take a mean of the calculated pressure from each spot on the map as calculated by each permutation in the ensemble, thus effectively smoothing out the projected low and making it appear broader in size but weaker in intensity than the ensemble's permutations had actually indicated. It can also depict two features instead of one if the ensemble clustering is around two different solutions.
Various forecast models within tropical cyclone track forecasting
can be plotted on a spaghetti diagram to show confidence in five-day track forecasts. When track models diverge late in the forecast period, the plot takes on the shape of a squashed spider, and can be referred to as such in National Hurricane Center
discussions. Within the field of climatology
and paleotempestology
, spaghetti plots have been used to correlate ground temperature information derived from borehole
s across central and eastern Canada. Like in other disciplines, spaghetti diagrams can be used to show the motion of objects, such as drifting weather buoys over time.
.
levels to early pregnancy loss. The half-life of drugs within people's blood plasma
, as well as discriminating effects between different populations, can be diagnosed quickly via these diagrams.
Weather buoy
Weather buoys are instruments which collect weather and ocean data within the world's oceans, as well as aiding during emergency response to chemical spills, legal proceedings, and engineering design. Moored buoys have been in used since 1951, while drifting buoys have been used since 1979...
s drifting through the ocean
Ocean
An ocean is a major body of saline water, and a principal component of the hydrosphere. Approximately 71% of the Earth's surface is covered by ocean, a continuous body of water that is customarily divided into several principal oceans and smaller seas.More than half of this area is over 3,000...
, they are drawn to study distribution and migration patterns. Within meteorology
Meteorology
Meteorology is the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere. Studies in the field stretch back millennia, though significant progress in meteorology did not occur until the 18th century. The 19th century saw breakthroughs occur after observing networks developed across several countries...
, these diagrams can help determine confidence in a specific weather forecast, as well as positions and intensities of high and low pressure systems. They are composed of deterministic forecasts from atmospheric model
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes , heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface...
s or their various ensemble members. Within medicine
Medicine
Medicine is the science and art of healing. It encompasses a variety of health care practices evolved to maintain and restore health by the prevention and treatment of illness....
, they can illustrate the effects of drugs on patients during drug trials.
Biology
Spaghetti diagrams have been used to study why butterfliesButterfly
A butterfly is a mainly day-flying insect of the order Lepidoptera, which includes the butterflies and moths. Like other holometabolous insects, the butterfly's life cycle consists of four parts: egg, larva, pupa and adult. Most species are diurnal. Butterflies have large, often brightly coloured...
are found where they are, and to see how topographic features (such as mountain ranges) limit their migration and range. Within mammal
Mammal
Mammals are members of a class of air-breathing vertebrate animals characterised by the possession of endothermy, hair, three middle ear bones, and mammary glands functional in mothers with young...
distributions across central North America
North America
North America is a continent wholly within the Northern Hemisphere and almost wholly within the Western Hemisphere. It is also considered a northern subcontinent of the Americas...
, these plots have correlated their edges to regions which were glaciated within the previous ice age
Ice age
An ice age or, more precisely, glacial age, is a generic geological period of long-term reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental ice sheets, polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers...
, as well as certain types of vegetation.
Meteorology
Within meteorology, spaghetti diagrams are normally drawn from ensemble forecastEnsemble forecasting
Ensemble forecasting is a numerical prediction method that is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system...
s. A meteorological variable e.g. pressure
Pressure
Pressure is the force per unit area applied in a direction perpendicular to the surface of an object. Gauge pressure is the pressure relative to the local atmospheric or ambient pressure.- Definition :...
, temperature
Temperature
Temperature is a physical property of matter that quantitatively expresses the common notions of hot and cold. Objects of low temperature are cold, while various degrees of higher temperatures are referred to as warm or hot...
, or precipitation
Precipitation (meteorology)
In meteorology, precipitation In meteorology, precipitation In meteorology, precipitation (also known as one of the classes of hydrometeors, which are atmospheric water phenomena is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls under gravity. The main forms of precipitation...
amount is drawn on a chart for a number of slightly different model runs from an ensemble. The model can then be stepped forward in time and the results compared and be used to gauge the amount of uncertainty in the forecast. If there is good agreement and the contours follow a recognizable pattern through the sequence, then the confidence in the forecast can be high. Conversely, if the pattern is chaotic i.e resembling a plate of spaghetti
Spaghetti
Spaghetti is a long, thin, cylindrical pasta of Italian origin. Spaghetti is made of semolina or flour and water. Italian dried spaghetti is made from durum wheat semolina, but outside of Italy it may be made with other kinds of flour...
then confidence will be low. Ensemble members will generally diverge over time and spaghetti plots are a quick way to see when this happens.
Spaghetti plots can be a more favorable choice compared to the mean-spread ensemble in determining the intensity of a coming cyclone
Cyclone
In meteorology, a cyclone is an area of closed, circular fluid motion rotating in the same direction as the Earth. This is usually characterized by inward spiraling winds that rotate anticlockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere of the Earth. Most large-scale...
, anticyclone
Anticyclone
An anticyclone is a weather phenomenon defined by the United States' National Weather Service's glossary as "[a] large-scale circulation of winds around a central region of high atmospheric pressure, clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere"...
, or upper level ridge or trough. Because ensemble forecasts naturally diverge as the days progress, the projected locations of meteorological features will spread further apart. A mean-spread diagram will take a mean of the calculated pressure from each spot on the map as calculated by each permutation in the ensemble, thus effectively smoothing out the projected low and making it appear broader in size but weaker in intensity than the ensemble's permutations had actually indicated. It can also depict two features instead of one if the ensemble clustering is around two different solutions.
Various forecast models within tropical cyclone track forecasting
Tropical cyclone track forecasting
Tropical cyclone track forecasting involves predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours. The history of tropical cyclone track forecasting has evolved from a single station approach to a comprehensive approach which uses a variety of...
can be plotted on a spaghetti diagram to show confidence in five-day track forecasts. When track models diverge late in the forecast period, the plot takes on the shape of a squashed spider, and can be referred to as such in National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center , located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida, is the division of the National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th...
discussions. Within the field of climatology
Climatology
Climatology is the study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time, and is a branch of the atmospheric sciences...
and paleotempestology
Paleotempestology
Paleotempestology is the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies as well as historical documentary records. The term was coined by Kerry Emanuel.-Sedimentary proxy records:...
, spaghetti plots have been used to correlate ground temperature information derived from borehole
Borehole
A borehole is the generalized term for any narrow shaft bored in the ground, either vertically or horizontally. A borehole may be constructed for many different purposes, including the extraction of water or other liquid or gases , as part of a geotechnical investigation, environmental site...
s across central and eastern Canada. Like in other disciplines, spaghetti diagrams can be used to show the motion of objects, such as drifting weather buoys over time.
Business
Spaghetti diagrams were first used to track routing through a factory. Spaghetti plots are a simple tool to visualize movement and transportation. Analyzing flows through systems can determine where time and energy is wasted, and identifies where streamlining would be beneficial. This is true not only with physical travel through a physical place, but also during more abstract processes such as the application of a mortgage loanMortgage loan
A mortgage loan is a loan secured by real property through the use of a mortgage note which evidences the existence of the loan and the encumbrance of that realty through the granting of a mortgage which secures the loan...
.
Medicine
Spaghetti plots can be used to track the results of drug trials amongst a number of patients on one individual graph to determine their benefit. They have also been used to correlate progesteroneProgesterone
Progesterone also known as P4 is a C-21 steroid hormone involved in the female menstrual cycle, pregnancy and embryogenesis of humans and other species...
levels to early pregnancy loss. The half-life of drugs within people's blood plasma
Blood plasma
Blood plasma is the straw-colored liquid component of blood in which the blood cells in whole blood are normally suspended. It makes up about 55% of the total blood volume. It is the intravascular fluid part of extracellular fluid...
, as well as discriminating effects between different populations, can be diagnosed quickly via these diagrams.