In
theologyThe term "theology" literally means the study of God, deriving from the Greek word theos, meaning 'God', and the suffix -ology from the Greek word logos meaning "discourse", "theory", or "reasoning"...
and
philosophyPhilosophy is the study of general and fundamental problems concerning matters such as existence, knowledge, values, reason, mind, and language. Philosophy is distinguished from other ways of addressing these questions by its critical, generally systematic approach and its reliance on reasoned...
,
probabilism (from
LatinLatin is an Italic language originally spoken in Latium and Ancient Rome. Through the Roman conquest, Latin spread throughout the Mediterranean and a large part of Europe...
probare, to test, approve) holds that in the absence of certainty,
probabilityProbability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy...
is the best criterion.
In
moral theologyThe first meeting on the topic of Christian ethics, after the Sermon on the Mount and Great Commission , was the Council of Jerusalem , which decreed the Apostolic Decree , forbidding idolatry, fornication, and blood and things strangled as the minimum requirements for new converts — which is...
, especially
CatholicThe Catholic Church, also known as the Roman Catholic Church, is the world's largest Christian church. With more than a billion members, over half of all Christians and more than one-sixth of the world's population, the Catholic Church is a communion of the Western, or Latin Rite Church, and...
, it refers especially to the view in
casuistryCasuistry is an applied ethics term referring to case-based reasoning. Casuistry is used in juridical and ethical discussions of law and ethics, and often is a critique of principle or rule-based reasoning....
that in difficult matters of
conscienceConscience is an ability or a faculty that distinguishes whether one's actions are right or wrong. It leads to feelings of remorse when a human does things that go against his/her moral values, and to feelings of rectitude or integrity when actions conform to moral values. It is also often viewed...
one may safely follow a doctrine that is probable, for example is approved by a recognized
Doctor of the ChurchDoctor of the Church is a title given by a variety of Christian churches to individuals whom they recognize as having been of particular importance, particularly regarding their additions to theological or doctrinal matters.-Catholicism:In Catholicism, this title is given to a saint from whose...
, even if the opposite opinion is more probable.
This view was advanced by the
SpanishSpain , officially the Kingdom of Spain , is a country located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula.
[The Spanish constitution does not establish any official denomination of the country, even though España , Estado español and Nación española are used interchangeably...]
theologian
Bartolomé de MedinaBartolomé de Medina, Spanish theologian, was born in Medina, Spain in 1527. A member of the Dominican Order and a student of Francisco de Vitoria, he was professor of theology at the University of Salamanca and a member of the School of Salamanca...
(1527 - 1581) and defended by many Jesuits such as
Luis MolinaLuis de Molina , was a Spanish Jesuit priest and a staunch defender of 'human liberty' in the Divine grace and human liberty controversy of the Renaissance ....
(1528 - 1581).
In
theologyThe term "theology" literally means the study of God, deriving from the Greek word theos, meaning 'God', and the suffix -ology from the Greek word logos meaning "discourse", "theory", or "reasoning"...
and
philosophyPhilosophy is the study of general and fundamental problems concerning matters such as existence, knowledge, values, reason, mind, and language. Philosophy is distinguished from other ways of addressing these questions by its critical, generally systematic approach and its reliance on reasoned...
,
probabilism (from
LatinLatin is an Italic language originally spoken in Latium and Ancient Rome. Through the Roman conquest, Latin spread throughout the Mediterranean and a large part of Europe...
probare, to test, approve) holds that in the absence of certainty,
probabilityProbability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy...
is the best criterion.
Theology
In
moral theologyThe first meeting on the topic of Christian ethics, after the Sermon on the Mount and Great Commission , was the Council of Jerusalem , which decreed the Apostolic Decree , forbidding idolatry, fornication, and blood and things strangled as the minimum requirements for new converts — which is...
, especially
CatholicThe Catholic Church, also known as the Roman Catholic Church, is the world's largest Christian church. With more than a billion members, over half of all Christians and more than one-sixth of the world's population, the Catholic Church is a communion of the Western, or Latin Rite Church, and...
, it refers especially to the view in
casuistryCasuistry is an applied ethics term referring to case-based reasoning. Casuistry is used in juridical and ethical discussions of law and ethics, and often is a critique of principle or rule-based reasoning....
that in difficult matters of
conscienceConscience is an ability or a faculty that distinguishes whether one's actions are right or wrong. It leads to feelings of remorse when a human does things that go against his/her moral values, and to feelings of rectitude or integrity when actions conform to moral values. It is also often viewed...
one may safely follow a doctrine that is probable, for example is approved by a recognized
Doctor of the ChurchDoctor of the Church is a title given by a variety of Christian churches to individuals whom they recognize as having been of particular importance, particularly regarding their additions to theological or doctrinal matters.-Catholicism:In Catholicism, this title is given to a saint from whose...
, even if the opposite opinion is more probable.
This view was advanced by the
SpanishSpain , officially the Kingdom of Spain , is a country located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula.
[The Spanish constitution does not establish any official denomination of the country, even though España , Estado español and Nación española are used interchangeably...]
theologian
Bartolomé de MedinaBartolomé de Medina, Spanish theologian, was born in Medina, Spain in 1527. A member of the Dominican Order and a student of Francisco de Vitoria, he was professor of theology at the University of Salamanca and a member of the School of Salamanca...
(1527 - 1581) and defended by many Jesuits such as
Luis MolinaLuis de Molina , was a Spanish Jesuit priest and a staunch defender of 'human liberty' in the Divine grace and human liberty controversy of the Renaissance ....
(1528 - 1581). It was heavily criticised by
Blaise Pascal Blaise Pascal , was a French mathematician, physicist, and religious philosopher. He was a child prodigy who was educated by his father, a civil servant...
in his
Provincial LettersThe Lettres provinciales are a series of eighteen letters written by French philosopher and theologian Blaise Pascal under the pseudonym Louis de Montalte...
as leading to moral laxity. Opposed to probabilism is probabiliorism (Latin
probabilior, "more likely"), which holds that when there is a preponderance of evidence on one side of a controversy one is obliged to follow that side, and tutiorism (Latin
tutior, "safer"), which holds that in case of doubt one must take the morally safer side. A more radical view, "minus probabilissimus", holds that an action is permissible if a single opinion allowing that action is available, even if the overwhelming weight of opinion proscribes it.
Philosophy
In philosophy the term is applied to that practical doctrine which gives assistance in ordinary matters to one who is skeptical in respect of the possibility of real knowledge: it supposes that though knowledge is impossible, a man may rely on strong beliefs in practical affairs. This view was held by the
skepticsIn classical philosophy, skepticism is the teachings and the traits of the 'Skeptikoi', a school of philosophers of whom it was said that they 'asserted nothing but only opined.' In this sense, philosophical skepticism, or Pyrrhonism, is the philosophical position that one should suspend...
of the New Academy (
see skepticismIn classical philosophy, skepticism is the teachings and the traits of the 'Skeptikoi', a school of philosophers of whom it was said that they 'asserted nothing but only opined.' In this sense, philosophical skepticism, or Pyrrhonism, is the philosophical position that one should suspend...
and CarneadesCarneades was a radical skeptic born in Cyrene and the first of the philosophers to pronounce the failure of metaphysicians who endeavored to discover rational meanings in religious beliefs. By the time of 159 BC he had started to refute all previous dogmatic doctrines, especially Stoicism, and...
.).
Academic skeptics accept probabilism, while Pyrrhonian skeptics do not.
In modern usage, a probabilist is someone who believes that central epistemological issues are best approached using probabilities. This thesis is neutral with respect to whether knowledge entails certainty or whether skepticism about knowledge is true.
Sources and references
Probabilism (1911)
- J. Franklin, The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), ch. 4
External links