Physics of the Future
Encyclopedia
Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 is a book
by theoretical physicist
Michio Kaku
, author of Hyperspace
and Physics of the Impossible
. It speculates on the possibilities of future
technological development over the next 100 years. Interviewing notable scientists of their field of research Kaku lays out his vision of coming developments in medicine
, computing
, artificial intelligence
, nanotechnology
, and energy production,stating that "this book most closely resembles my book Visions." Kaku writes how he hopes his predictions for 2100 will be as successful as science fiction
writer Jules Verne's
1863 novel Paris in the Twentieth Century. Kaku contrasts Verne's foresight against U.S. Postmaster General John Wanamaker
, who in 1893 predicted that mail would still be delivered by stagecoach
and horseback in 100 years time, and IBM
chairman Thomas J. Watson
, who in 1943 is alleged to have said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Kaku points to this long history of failed predictions against progress to underscore his notion "that it is very dangerous to bet against the future". The book was on the New York Times Bestseller List for 5 weeks.
, and compares a chip that sings "Happy Birthday" with the Allied forces in 1945, stating that the chip contains much more power, and that "Hitler, Churchill, or Roosevelt might have killed to get that chip." He predicts that computer power will increase to the point where computers, like electricity, paper, and water, "disappear into the fabric of our lives, and computer chips will be planted in the walls of buildings.
He also predicts that glasses and contact lenses will be connected to the internet, using similar technology to virtual retinal display
s. Cars will become driverless due to the power of the GPS system. This prediction is supported by the results of the Urban Challenge
. The Pentagon
hopes to make of the United States ground forces automated by 2015. Technology similar to BrainGate
will eventually allow humans to control computers with tiny brain sensors, and "like a magician, move objects around with the power of our minds."
and their contradictions. He endorses a "chip in robot brains to automatically shut them off it they have murderous thoughts", and believes that the most likely scenario is "friendly AI", in which robots are free to wreak havoc and destruction, but are designed to desire benevolence.
, which can activate genes that slow the aging process. Nanotech sensors in a room will check for various diseases and cancer, and advancements in extracting stem cells will be manifest in the art of growing new organs. The idea of resurrecting an extinct species might now be biologically possible.
, quantum computer
s, carbon nanotube
s, and the possibility of replicators
. He also expects a variety of nanodevices that search and destroy cancer cells cleanly, leaving normal cells intact.
, and the rising problem of immigrants who wish to live the American dream of wasteful energy consumption. He predicts that hydrogen and solar energy will be the future, noting how Henry Ford and Thomas Edison bet on whether oil or electricity would dominate, and describing fusion with lasers or magnetic fields, and dismisses cold fusion
as "a dead end". Kaku observes that nations are reluctant to deal with global warming because the extravagance of oil, being the cheapest source of energy, encourages economic growth. Kaku believes that in the far future, room-temperature superconductors will usher the era of magnet-powered floating cars and trains.
, solar sails take advantage of radiation pressure
from stars. Kaku believes that after sending a gigantic solar sail
into orbit, one could install lasers on the moon, which would hit the sail and give it extra momentum.
Another alternative is to send thousands of nanoships, of which only a few would reach their destination. "Once arriving on a nearby moon, they could create a factory to make unlimited copies of themselves," says Kaku. Nanoships would require very little fuel to accelerate. They could visit the stellar neighborhood by floating on the magnetic fields of other planets.
, which nations will survive and grow, how the United States
is "brain-draining" off of immigrants to fuel their economy.
, entropy, and information processing.
stated "[Physics of the Future] is partisan about technology in a way that smacks of Gerard K O’Neill’s deliriously technocratic vision of space exploration, The High Frontier." Kirkus Reviews
stated "The author’s scientific expertise will engage readers too sophisticated for predictions based on psychic powers or astrology." Reviewers at Library Journal
have stated, "This work is highly recommended for fans of Kaku’s previous books and for readers interested in science and robotics." Barnes and Noble stated, "Physics of the Future qualifies as one of the most exciting science books of the new millennium." The Economist
is skeptical about prediction in general pointing out that unforeseen "unknown unknowns" led to many disruptive technologies
over the century just past.
Not all reviewers had a positive response to the book. Writing in journal Physics Today
, physicist Neil Gershenfeld
said that the book has “an appealing premise” but describes “a kind of future by committee” populated by “science-fiction staples”. Gershenfeld said, “Such a forecast could have been accomplished with less effort by collating covers from popular science magazines.” Gershenfeld criticizes Kaku for “some surprising physics errors”, such as ignoring air friction on maglev vehicles
. Kaku is praised for raising “profound questions”, such as the effect of affluence in the future, or the decoupling of sensory experience
from reality. However, Gershenfeld laments that these questions are asked in the margins and not given a deep treatment. “It would have been more relevant to learn the author’s perspective on these questions than to find out where and to whom he’s presented lectures,” Gershenfeld said.
Book
A book is a set or collection of written, printed, illustrated, or blank sheets, made of hot lava, paper, parchment, or other materials, usually fastened together to hinge at one side. A single sheet within a book is called a leaf or leaflet, and each side of a leaf is called a page...
by theoretical physicist
Physicist
A physicist is a scientist who studies or practices physics. Physicists study a wide range of physical phenomena in many branches of physics spanning all length scales: from sub-atomic particles of which all ordinary matter is made to the behavior of the material Universe as a whole...
Michio Kaku
Michio Kaku
is an American theoretical physicist, the Henry Semat Professor of Theoretical Physics in the City College of New York of City University of New York, the co-founder of string field theory, and a "communicator" and "popularizer" of science...
, author of Hyperspace
Hyperspace (book)
Hyperspace: A Scientific Odyssey Through Parallel Universes, Time Warps, and the Tenth Dimension is a book by Michio Kaku, a theoretical physicist from the City College of New York. It focuses on Kaku's studies of higher dimensions referred to as hyperspace...
and Physics of the Impossible
Physics of the Impossible
Published in 2008, Physics of the Impossible: A Scientific Exploration Into the World of Phasers, Force Fields, Teleportation, and Time Travel is a book by theoretical physicist Michio Kaku. Kaku uses discussion of speculative technologies to introduce topics of fundamental physics to the reader...
. It speculates on the possibilities of future
Future
The future is the indefinite time period after the present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the nature of the reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently exists and will exist is temporary and will come...
technological development over the next 100 years. Interviewing notable scientists of their field of research Kaku lays out his vision of coming developments in medicine
Medicine
Medicine is the science and art of healing. It encompasses a variety of health care practices evolved to maintain and restore health by the prevention and treatment of illness....
, computing
Computing
Computing is usually defined as the activity of using and improving computer hardware and software. It is the computer-specific part of information technology...
, artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence is the intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science that aims to create it. AI textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents" where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its...
, nanotechnology
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the study of manipulating matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Generally, nanotechnology deals with developing materials, devices, or other structures possessing at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometres...
, and energy production,stating that "this book most closely resembles my book Visions." Kaku writes how he hopes his predictions for 2100 will be as successful as science fiction
Science fiction
Science fiction is a genre of fiction dealing with imaginary but more or less plausible content such as future settings, futuristic science and technology, space travel, aliens, and paranormal abilities...
writer Jules Verne's
Jules Verne
Jules Gabriel Verne was a French author who pioneered the science fiction genre. He is best known for his novels Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea , A Journey to the Center of the Earth , and Around the World in Eighty Days...
1863 novel Paris in the Twentieth Century. Kaku contrasts Verne's foresight against U.S. Postmaster General John Wanamaker
John Wanamaker
John Wanamaker was a United States merchant, religious leader, civic and political figure, considered by some to be the father of modern advertising and a "pioneer in marketing." Wanamaker was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.-Biography:He was born on July 11, 1838.He opened his first store in...
, who in 1893 predicted that mail would still be delivered by stagecoach
Stagecoach
A stagecoach is a type of covered wagon for passengers and goods, strongly sprung and drawn by four horses, usually four-in-hand. Widely used before the introduction of railway transport, it made regular trips between stages or stations, which were places of rest provided for stagecoach travelers...
and horseback in 100 years time, and IBM
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation or IBM is an American multinational technology and consulting corporation headquartered in Armonk, New York, United States. IBM manufactures and sells computer hardware and software, and it offers infrastructure, hosting and consulting services in areas...
chairman Thomas J. Watson
Thomas J. Watson
Thomas John Watson, Sr. was president of International Business Machines , who oversaw that company's growth into an international force from 1914 to 1956...
, who in 1943 is alleged to have said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Kaku points to this long history of failed predictions against progress to underscore his notion "that it is very dangerous to bet against the future". The book was on the New York Times Bestseller List for 5 weeks.
Contents
Each chapter is sorted into three sections: Near future (2000-2030), Midcentury (2030-2070), and Far future (2070-2100). Kaku notes that the time periods are only rough approximations, but show the general time frame for the various trends in the book.Future of the Computer: Mind over Matter
Kaku begins with Moore's lawMoore's Law
Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware: the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years....
, and compares a chip that sings "Happy Birthday" with the Allied forces in 1945, stating that the chip contains much more power, and that "Hitler, Churchill, or Roosevelt might have killed to get that chip." He predicts that computer power will increase to the point where computers, like electricity, paper, and water, "disappear into the fabric of our lives, and computer chips will be planted in the walls of buildings.
He also predicts that glasses and contact lenses will be connected to the internet, using similar technology to virtual retinal display
Virtual retinal display
A virtual retinal display , also known as a retinal scan display or retinal projector , is a display technology that draws a raster display directly onto the retina of the eye. The user sees what appears to be a conventional display floating in space in front of them...
s. Cars will become driverless due to the power of the GPS system. This prediction is supported by the results of the Urban Challenge
DARPA Grand Challenge
The DARPA Grand Challenge is a prize competition for driverless vehicles, funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the most prominent research organization of the United States Department of Defense...
. The Pentagon
The Pentagon
The Pentagon is the headquarters of the United States Department of Defense, located in Arlington County, Virginia. As a symbol of the U.S. military, "the Pentagon" is often used metonymically to refer to the Department of Defense rather than the building itself.Designed by the American architect...
hopes to make of the United States ground forces automated by 2015. Technology similar to BrainGate
BrainGate
BrainGate is a brain implant system developed by the bio-tech company Cyberkinetics in 2008 in conjunction with the Department of Neuroscience at Brown University. The Braingate technology and related Cyberkinetic’s assets are now owned by privately held Braingate, LLC...
will eventually allow humans to control computers with tiny brain sensors, and "like a magician, move objects around with the power of our minds."
Future of AI: Rise of the Machines
Kaku discusses robotic body parts, modular robots, unemployment caused by robots, surrogates and avatars (like their respective movies), and reverse engineering the brain. Kaku goes over the three laws of roboticsThree Laws of Robotics
The Three Laws of Robotics are a set of rules devised by the science fiction author Isaac Asimov and later added to. The rules are introduced in his 1942 short story "Runaround", although they were foreshadowed in a few earlier stories...
and their contradictions. He endorses a "chip in robot brains to automatically shut them off it they have murderous thoughts", and believes that the most likely scenario is "friendly AI", in which robots are free to wreak havoc and destruction, but are designed to desire benevolence.
Future of Medicine: Perfection and Beyond
Kaku believes that in the future, reprogramming one's genes can be done by using a specially programmed virusVirus
A virus is a small infectious agent that can replicate only inside the living cells of organisms. Viruses infect all types of organisms, from animals and plants to bacteria and archaea...
, which can activate genes that slow the aging process. Nanotech sensors in a room will check for various diseases and cancer, and advancements in extracting stem cells will be manifest in the art of growing new organs. The idea of resurrecting an extinct species might now be biologically possible.
Nanotechnology: Everything from Nothing?
Kaku discusses programmable matterProgrammable matter
Programmable matter refers to matter which has the ability to change its physical properties in a programmable fashion, based upon user input or autonomous sensing...
, quantum computer
Quantum computer
A quantum computer is a device for computation that makes direct use of quantum mechanical phenomena, such as superposition and entanglement, to perform operations on data. Quantum computers are different from traditional computers based on transistors...
s, carbon nanotube
Carbon nanotube
Carbon nanotubes are allotropes of carbon with a cylindrical nanostructure. Nanotubes have been constructed with length-to-diameter ratio of up to 132,000,000:1, significantly larger than for any other material...
s, and the possibility of replicators
Replicator (Star Trek)
In Star Trek a replicator is a machine capable of creating objects. Replicators were originally seen used to synthesize meals on demand, but in later series they took on many other uses.-Origins and limitations:...
. He also expects a variety of nanodevices that search and destroy cancer cells cleanly, leaving normal cells intact.
Future of Energy: Energy from the Stars
Kaku discusses the draining of oil on the planet by pointing to the Hubbert curveHubbert curve
The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geophysicist M...
, and the rising problem of immigrants who wish to live the American dream of wasteful energy consumption. He predicts that hydrogen and solar energy will be the future, noting how Henry Ford and Thomas Edison bet on whether oil or electricity would dominate, and describing fusion with lasers or magnetic fields, and dismisses cold fusion
Cold fusion
Cold fusion, also called low-energy nuclear reaction , refers to the hypothesis that nuclear fusion might explain the results of a group of experiments conducted at ordinary temperatures . Both the experimental results and the hypothesis are disputed...
as "a dead end". Kaku observes that nations are reluctant to deal with global warming because the extravagance of oil, being the cheapest source of energy, encourages economic growth. Kaku believes that in the far future, room-temperature superconductors will usher the era of magnet-powered floating cars and trains.
Future of Space Travel: To the Stars
Unlike conventional chemical rockets which use Newton's third law of motionNewton's laws of motion
Newton's laws of motion are three physical laws that form the basis for classical mechanics. They describe the relationship between the forces acting on a body and its motion due to those forces...
, solar sails take advantage of radiation pressure
Radiation pressure
Radiation pressure is the pressure exerted upon any surface exposed to electromagnetic radiation. If absorbed, the pressure is the power flux density divided by the speed of light...
from stars. Kaku believes that after sending a gigantic solar sail
Solar sail
Solar sails are a form of spacecraft propulsion using the radiation pressure of light from a star or laser to push enormous ultra-thin mirrors to high speeds....
into orbit, one could install lasers on the moon, which would hit the sail and give it extra momentum.
Another alternative is to send thousands of nanoships, of which only a few would reach their destination. "Once arriving on a nearby moon, they could create a factory to make unlimited copies of themselves," says Kaku. Nanoships would require very little fuel to accelerate. They could visit the stellar neighborhood by floating on the magnetic fields of other planets.
Future of Wealth: Winners and Losers
Kaku discusses how Moore's law and robotics will affect the future of capitalismCapitalism
Capitalism is an economic system that became dominant in the Western world following the demise of feudalism. There is no consensus on the precise definition nor on how the term should be used as a historical category...
, which nations will survive and grow, how the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
is "brain-draining" off of immigrants to fuel their economy.
Future of Humanity: Planetary Civilization
Kaku ranks the civilization of the future, with classifications based on energy consumptionKardashev scale
The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring an advanced civilization's level of technological advancement. The scale is only theoretical and in terms of an actual civilization highly speculative; however, it puts energy consumption of an entire civilization in a cosmic perspective. It was first...
, entropy, and information processing.
Reception
The Wall Street Journal considers it a "largely optimistic view of the future". In April 2011, The TelegraphThe Daily Telegraph
The Daily Telegraph is a daily morning broadsheet newspaper distributed throughout the United Kingdom and internationally. The newspaper was founded by Arthur B...
stated "[Physics of the Future] is partisan about technology in a way that smacks of Gerard K O’Neill’s deliriously technocratic vision of space exploration, The High Frontier." Kirkus Reviews
Kirkus Reviews
Kirkus Reviews is an American book review magazine founded in 1933 by Virginia Kirkus . Kirkus serves the book and literary trade sector, including libraries, publishers, literary and film agents, film and TV producers and booksellers. Kirkus Reviews is published on the first and 15th of each month...
stated "The author’s scientific expertise will engage readers too sophisticated for predictions based on psychic powers or astrology." Reviewers at Library Journal
Library Journal
Library Journal is a trade publication for librarians. It was founded in 1876 by Melvil Dewey . It reports news about the library world, emphasizing public libraries, and offers feature articles about aspects of professional practice...
have stated, "This work is highly recommended for fans of Kaku’s previous books and for readers interested in science and robotics." Barnes and Noble stated, "Physics of the Future qualifies as one of the most exciting science books of the new millennium." The Economist
The Economist
The Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. and edited in offices in the City of Westminster, London, England. Continuous publication began under founder James Wilson in September 1843...
is skeptical about prediction in general pointing out that unforeseen "unknown unknowns" led to many disruptive technologies
Disruptive technology
A disruptive technology or disruptive innovation is an innovation that helps create a new market and value network, and eventually goes on to disrupt an existing market and value network , displacing an earlier technology there...
over the century just past.
Not all reviewers had a positive response to the book. Writing in journal Physics Today
Physics Today
Physics Today, created in 1948, is the membership journal of the American Institute of Physics. It is provided to 130,000 members of twelve physics societies, including the American Physical Society...
, physicist Neil Gershenfeld
Neil Gershenfeld
Neil Gershenfeld is a professor at MIT and the head of MIT's Center for Bits and Atoms, a sister lab spun out of the popular MIT Media Lab. His research interests are mainly in interdisciplinary studies involving physics and computer science, in such fields as quantum computing, nanotechnology,...
said that the book has “an appealing premise” but describes “a kind of future by committee” populated by “science-fiction staples”. Gershenfeld said, “Such a forecast could have been accomplished with less effort by collating covers from popular science magazines.” Gershenfeld criticizes Kaku for “some surprising physics errors”, such as ignoring air friction on maglev vehicles
Maglev
Maglev is a form of rail transport using magnetic levitation.Maglev may also refer to:* Magnetic levitation, a method by which an object is suspended using magnetic fields* MagLev , a virtual machine for the Ruby programming language...
. Kaku is praised for raising “profound questions”, such as the effect of affluence in the future, or the decoupling of sensory experience
Perception
Perception is the process of attaining awareness or understanding of the environment by organizing and interpreting sensory information. All perception involves signals in the nervous system, which in turn result from physical stimulation of the sense organs...
from reality. However, Gershenfeld laments that these questions are asked in the margins and not given a deep treatment. “It would have been more relevant to learn the author’s perspective on these questions than to find out where and to whom he’s presented lectures,” Gershenfeld said.
External links
- Michio Kaku's official website