Clay Davenport
Encyclopedia
Clay Davenport, a native of Hampton Roads
, Virginia
, now living in Baltimore
, Maryland
, is a baseball
sabermetrician
who co-founded Baseball Prospectus
(BP) in 1996. He co-edited several of the Baseball Prospectus annual volumes and is a writer for BaseballProspectus.com. Much of his work for BP is behind the scenes, where he maintains and implements advanced statistics for the website.
For most of the time during which he has been contributing to Baseball Prospectus, Davenport's main employment has been as a meteorologist. In March 2010, it was announced that he had moved to full-time status at Baseball Propectus.
, (designed to find the best exponent for the Pythagoras winning percentage equation), for inventing the statistic
Equivalent Average (EqA) (now called "True Average" or "TAv"), and for the "Davenport Translations" or DT's. The DT's are estimated Major League equivalent performance statistics based on player statistics from minor league and international baseball. DT's were first published by Davenport on the rec.sports.baseball Usenet
site in 1995, before Baseball Prospectus was founded.
The DT's are also used to standardize the records of players who played in different eras and playing conditions, not only in different leagues and levels of baseball. This allows comparison, for example, of the number of home runs hit by Babe Ruth
and modern players, to estimate how many each would have hit in a season or a lifetime if they had all played under the same playing conditions (parks, leagues, levels of competition, and eras).
Davenport introduced the DT's to the on-line baseball research community in 1995 as follows:
, Davenport was employed for many years as a software contractor with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the Satellite and Information Service, where he developed models for predicting rainfall from satellite imagery
. He has likened some of that work to his baseball analysis: "The biggest similarity between handling the two types of statistics is that they each involve making forecasts that are there for everyone to see, and you end up being wrong a lot,” Davenport said. “You learn to develop a thick skin."
In 2000, Davenport developed the Hydro-Estimator, a set of computer programs to estimate precipitation in real time
.
Because of these programs, according to Davenport, “we are now capable of producing rainfall estimates for every system visible from satellite, which allows it to be used for other purposes in the United States and around the world, for example, drought monitoring in Africa
, forest fire protection in Brazil
and landslide
studies in Venezuela
.”
Hampton Roads
Hampton Roads is the name for both a body of water and the Norfolk–Virginia Beach metropolitan area which surrounds it in southeastern Virginia, United States...
, Virginia
Virginia
The Commonwealth of Virginia , is a U.S. state on the Atlantic Coast of the Southern United States. Virginia is nicknamed the "Old Dominion" and sometimes the "Mother of Presidents" after the eight U.S. presidents born there...
, now living in Baltimore
Baltimore
Baltimore is the largest independent city in the United States and the largest city and cultural center of the US state of Maryland. The city is located in central Maryland along the tidal portion of the Patapsco River, an arm of the Chesapeake Bay. Baltimore is sometimes referred to as Baltimore...
, Maryland
Maryland
Maryland is a U.S. state located in the Mid Atlantic region of the United States, bordering Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia to its south and west; Pennsylvania to its north; and Delaware to its east...
, is a baseball
Baseball
Baseball is a bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players each. The aim is to score runs by hitting a thrown ball with a bat and touching a series of four bases arranged at the corners of a ninety-foot diamond...
sabermetrician
Sabermetrics
Sabermetrics is the specialized analysis of baseball through objective, empirical evidence, specifically baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research...
who co-founded Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Prospectus is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well player and team performance projections on the site...
(BP) in 1996. He co-edited several of the Baseball Prospectus annual volumes and is a writer for BaseballProspectus.com. Much of his work for BP is behind the scenes, where he maintains and implements advanced statistics for the website.
For most of the time during which he has been contributing to Baseball Prospectus, Davenport's main employment has been as a meteorologist. In March 2010, it was announced that he had moved to full-time status at Baseball Propectus.
Baseball analysis and sabermetrics
Davenport is known for creating the Pythagenport FormulaPythagorean expectation
Pythagorean expectation is a formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to evaluate how lucky that team was...
, (designed to find the best exponent for the Pythagoras winning percentage equation), for inventing the statistic
Baseball statistics
Statistics play an important role in summarizing baseball performance and evaluating players in the sport.Since the flow of a baseball game has natural breaks to it, and normally players act individually rather than performing in clusters, the sport lends itself to easy record-keeping and statistics...
Equivalent Average (EqA) (now called "True Average" or "TAv"), and for the "Davenport Translations" or DT's. The DT's are estimated Major League equivalent performance statistics based on player statistics from minor league and international baseball. DT's were first published by Davenport on the rec.sports.baseball Usenet
Usenet
Usenet is a worldwide distributed Internet discussion system. It developed from the general purpose UUCP architecture of the same name.Duke University graduate students Tom Truscott and Jim Ellis conceived the idea in 1979 and it was established in 1980...
site in 1995, before Baseball Prospectus was founded.
The DT's are also used to standardize the records of players who played in different eras and playing conditions, not only in different leagues and levels of baseball. This allows comparison, for example, of the number of home runs hit by Babe Ruth
Babe Ruth
George Herman Ruth, Jr. , best known as "Babe" Ruth and nicknamed "the Bambino" and "the Sultan of Swat", was an American Major League baseball player from 1914–1935...
and modern players, to estimate how many each would have hit in a season or a lifetime if they had all played under the same playing conditions (parks, leagues, levels of competition, and eras).
Davenport introduced the DT's to the on-line baseball research community in 1995 as follows:
Hello. My name is Clay Davenport, and these are my Translations of the 1994 baseball season.
While these Translations look like player stats, they are NOT the players' actual statistics. The Translations are an attempt to show how well the player would have performed in a standard league (the American League of 1992), knowing how well he played in his actual league. We know that some leagues are tougher than others; that's why we have the majors, AAA, AA, and so on. We know that some leagues are easier to hit in; we know that some parks favor the pitchers; and we know that these effects are not constant from one year to the next. We can estimate how big a difference each of those makes and correct for them, and that is what the Translations try to do. How well they work I shall leave for you to judge.
Meteorology
A graduate of the University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia
The University of Virginia is a public research university located in Charlottesville, Virginia, United States, founded by Thomas Jefferson...
, Davenport was employed for many years as a software contractor with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the Satellite and Information Service, where he developed models for predicting rainfall from satellite imagery
Satellite imagery
Satellite imagery consists of photographs of Earth or other planets made by means of artificial satellites.- History :The first images from space were taken on sub-orbital flights. The U.S-launched V-2 flight on October 24, 1946 took one image every 1.5 seconds...
. He has likened some of that work to his baseball analysis: "The biggest similarity between handling the two types of statistics is that they each involve making forecasts that are there for everyone to see, and you end up being wrong a lot,” Davenport said. “You learn to develop a thick skin."
In 2000, Davenport developed the Hydro-Estimator, a set of computer programs to estimate precipitation in real time
Real-time computing
In computer science, real-time computing , or reactive computing, is the study of hardware and software systems that are subject to a "real-time constraint"— e.g. operational deadlines from event to system response. Real-time programs must guarantee response within strict time constraints...
.
"The Hydro-Estimator (H-E) version of the Auto-Estimator (AE) was developed by Clay Davenport, a contractor working for the ORA Hydrology Team under the direction of Dr. Rod Scofield. The Hydro-Estimator algorithm differs from the original AE by using a brightness temperature screening technique. It adjusts the rain rate assigned to each picture element (pixel) according to the surrounding pixel temperatures. This helps separate raining and non-raining pixels and decreases the need for radar screening. It also helps focus rainfall estimate totals into more clearly defined maximums. There is less of a tendency for overestimating for very cold cloud tops using the H-E, and it does a much better job of estimating for large mesoscale convective complexMesoscale Convective ComplexA mesoscale convective complex is a unique kind of mesoscale convective system which is defined by characteristics observed in infrared satellite imagery. They are long-lived, nocturnal in formation and commonly contain heavy rainfall, wind, hail, lightning and possibly tornadoes.-Size:A...
es (MCC's). The H-E also has a different way of handling the moisture corrections, and also produces more frequent products every 15 minutes for all except the 24 hour totals. The 1 hour H-E totals are available on the NWS AWIPS system as a graphic for the whole CONUS every hour."
Because of these programs, according to Davenport, “we are now capable of producing rainfall estimates for every system visible from satellite, which allows it to be used for other purposes in the United States and around the world, for example, drought monitoring in Africa
Africa
Africa is the world's second largest and second most populous continent, after Asia. At about 30.2 million km² including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of the Earth's total surface area and 20.4% of the total land area...
, forest fire protection in Brazil
Brazil
Brazil , officially the Federative Republic of Brazil , is the largest country in South America. It is the world's fifth largest country, both by geographical area and by population with over 192 million people...
and landslide
Landslide
A landslide or landslip is a geological phenomenon which includes a wide range of ground movement, such as rockfalls, deep failure of slopes and shallow debris flows, which can occur in offshore, coastal and onshore environments...
studies in Venezuela
Venezuela
Venezuela , officially called the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela , is a tropical country on the northern coast of South America. It borders Colombia to the west, Guyana to the east, and Brazil to the south...
.”