Political Instability Task Force
Encyclopedia
Political Instability Task Force (formerly known as State Failure Task Force) is a U.S. government
-sponsored research project to build a database
on major domestic political conflicts
leading to state failures. The study analyzed factors to denote the effectiveness of state institutions, population well-being, and elite
conflicts and found that partial democracies with low involvement in international trade and with high infant mortality are most prone to revolutions.
(particularly active was the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University
) by the Central Intelligence Agency
's Directorate of Intelligence in response to a request from senior U.S. policy makers. A similar project (Project Camelot
) generated much controversy in the 1960s.
, ethnic war
s, adverse regime
changes, and genocide
s and politicide
s - in the world from 1955 to 1995. For every year in which a problem case occurred, three control cases - other countries that had no such conflicts in the span of a decade centered on that year - were chosen. The goal was to find factors associated with major political conflicts. Over 400 cases were analyzed, both for global and regional data set
s.
Thus partial democracies with low involvement in international trade and with high infant mortality are most prone to revolutions.
Quantitative
models developed during the study would have accurately predicted over 85% of major state crises events occurring in 1990–1997. However while the models can predict state crises, they cannot predict their magnitude and eventual outcome.
Electronic copies of the first three biennial Task Force reports are available free of charge and are downloadable from the official web site.
Federal government of the United States
The federal government of the United States is the national government of the constitutional republic of fifty states that is the United States of America. The federal government comprises three distinct branches of government: a legislative, an executive and a judiciary. These branches and...
-sponsored research project to build a database
Database
A database is an organized collection of data for one or more purposes, usually in digital form. The data are typically organized to model relevant aspects of reality , in a way that supports processes requiring this information...
on major domestic political conflicts
Politics
Politics is a process by which groups of people make collective decisions. The term is generally applied to the art or science of running governmental or state affairs, including behavior within civil governments, but also applies to institutions, fields, and special interest groups such as the...
leading to state failures. The study analyzed factors to denote the effectiveness of state institutions, population well-being, and elite
Elite
Elite refers to an exceptional or privileged group that wields considerable power within its sphere of influence...
conflicts and found that partial democracies with low involvement in international trade and with high infant mortality are most prone to revolutions.
Project history
The project was begun in 1994 as an unclassified study that was commissioned to a group of academicsAcademia
Academia is the community of students and scholars engaged in higher education and research.-Etymology:The word comes from the akademeia in ancient Greece. Outside the city walls of Athens, the gymnasium was made famous by Plato as a center of learning...
(particularly active was the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University
George Mason University
George Mason University is a public university based in unincorporated Fairfax County, Virginia, United States, south of and adjacent to the city of Fairfax. Additional campuses are located nearby in Arlington County, Prince William County, and Loudoun County...
) by the Central Intelligence Agency
Central Intelligence Agency
The Central Intelligence Agency is a civilian intelligence agency of the United States government. It is an executive agency and reports directly to the Director of National Intelligence, responsible for providing national security intelligence assessment to senior United States policymakers...
's Directorate of Intelligence in response to a request from senior U.S. policy makers. A similar project (Project Camelot
Project Camelot
Project Camelot was a social science research project of the United States Army that started in 1964 and was cancelled after congressional hearings in 1965. The goal of the project was to assess the causes of conflict between national groups, to anticipate social breakdown and provide eventual...
) generated much controversy in the 1960s.
Methodology
The task force first identified over 100 "problem cases" - instances of revolutionary warsRevolution
A revolution is a fundamental change in power or organizational structures that takes place in a relatively short period of time.Aristotle described two types of political revolution:...
, ethnic war
Ethnic war
An ethnic conflict or ethnic war is a conflict between ethnic groups often as a result of ethnic nationalism. They are of interest because of the apparent prevalence since the Cold War and because they frequently result in war crimes such as genocide...
s, adverse regime
Regime
The word regime refers to a set of conditions, most often of a political nature.-Politics:...
changes, and genocide
Genocide
Genocide is defined as "the deliberate and systematic destruction, in whole or in part, of an ethnic, racial, religious, or national group", though what constitutes enough of a "part" to qualify as genocide has been subject to much debate by legal scholars...
s and politicide
Politicide
Politicide has three related but distinct meanings. It can mean a gradual but systematic attempt to cause the annihilation of an independent political and social entity. For example the destruction of the apartheid system in South Africa...
s - in the world from 1955 to 1995. For every year in which a problem case occurred, three control cases - other countries that had no such conflicts in the span of a decade centered on that year - were chosen. The goal was to find factors associated with major political conflicts. Over 400 cases were analyzed, both for global and regional data set
Data set
A data set is a collection of data, usually presented in tabular form. Each column represents a particular variable. Each row corresponds to a given member of the data set in question. Its values for each of the variables, such as height and weight of an object or values of random numbers. Each...
s.
Findings
Fairly consistent findings were produced, suggesting that there are three statistically significant variables most often associated with political upheavals:- regime type: a U-shaped relationship was found between regime type and political unrest: partial democracies were at high risk, whereas both democraciesDemocracyDemocracy is generally defined as a form of government in which all adult citizens have an equal say in the decisions that affect their lives. Ideally, this includes equal participation in the proposal, development and passage of legislation into law...
and autocraciesAutocracyAn autocracy is a form of government in which one person is the supreme power within the state. It is derived from the Greek : and , and may be translated as "one who rules by himself". It is distinct from oligarchy and democracy...
were both relatively stable. - international tradeInternational tradeInternational trade is the exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories. In most countries, such trade represents a significant share of gross domestic product...
: Having a high portion of gross national product (GNP) tied to international trade was positively related to stability. The explanation given was that in partial democracies are states in which there are more instances of conflict, reformReformReform means to put or change into an improved form or condition; to amend or improve by change of color or removal of faults or abuses, beneficial change, more specifically, reversion to a pure original state, to repair, restore or to correct....
, and concessionsConcession (politics)In politics, a concession is the act of a losing candidate publicly yielding to a winning candidate after an election, when the overall result of the vote has become clear.-Refusal to concede:...
; often seen as weakness (see: political opportunity theory, States and Social RevolutionsStates and Social RevolutionsStates and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia and China is a 1979 book by political scientist and sociologist Theda Skocpol, published by Cambridge University Press and explaining the causes of revolutions through the structural functionalism sociological paradigm...
, waves of democracy and waves of revolutions). Being heavily involved in international tradeInternational tradeInternational trade is the exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories. In most countries, such trade represents a significant share of gross domestic product...
requires respect for the rule of lawRule of lawThe rule of law, sometimes called supremacy of law, is a legal maxim that says that governmental decisions should be made by applying known principles or laws with minimal discretion in their application...
and low levels of corruptionPolitical corruptionPolitical corruption is the use of legislated powers by government officials for illegitimate private gain. Misuse of government power for other purposes, such as repression of political opponents and general police brutality, is not considered political corruption. Neither are illegal acts by...
. Countries that do not participate heavily in international trade likely see groups distorting trade and other economic activity for their benefit, making internal conflicts more likely. - infant mortalityInfant mortalityInfant mortality is defined as the number of infant deaths per 1000 live births. Traditionally, the most common cause worldwide was dehydration from diarrhea. However, the spreading information about Oral Re-hydration Solution to mothers around the world has decreased the rate of children dying...
. Lower infant mortality, were generally more stable was also positively associated with stability. This is explained as the infant mortality measures for standard of livingStandard of livingStandard of living is generally measured by standards such as real income per person and poverty rate. Other measures such as access and quality of health care, income growth inequality and educational standards are also used. Examples are access to certain goods , or measures of health such as...
; therefore countries with low infant mortality rate have more efficient welfareQuality of lifeThe term quality of life is used to evaluate the general well-being of individuals and societies. The term is used in a wide range of contexts, including the fields of international development, healthcare, and politics. Quality of life should not be confused with the concept of standard of...
and justiceJusticeJustice is a concept of moral rightness based on ethics, rationality, law, natural law, religion, or equity, along with the punishment of the breach of said ethics; justice is the act of being just and/or fair.-Concept of justice:...
systems.
Thus partial democracies with low involvement in international trade and with high infant mortality are most prone to revolutions.
Quantitative
Quantitative
A quantitative property is one that exists in a range of magnitudes, and can therefore be measured with a number. Measurements of any particular quantitative property are expressed as a specific quantity, referred to as a unit, multiplied by a number. Examples of physical quantities are distance,...
models developed during the study would have accurately predicted over 85% of major state crises events occurring in 1990–1997. However while the models can predict state crises, they cannot predict their magnitude and eventual outcome.
Electronic copies of the first three biennial Task Force reports are available free of charge and are downloadable from the official web site.
External links
- The State Failure Project: Early Warning Research for U.S. Foreign Policy Planning
- Social Science Statistics Blog: State Failure
- The crystal ball of chaos, NatureNatureNature, in the broadest sense, is equivalent to the natural world, physical world, or material world. "Nature" refers to the phenomena of the physical world, and also to life in general...
,
Further reading
- Esty D, Goldstone JA, Gurr TR, Harff B, Levy M, Dabelko GD, Surko P, Unger AN. 1998. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. McLean, Virginia: Science Applications International Corporation
- Goldstone, JA, Bates, RH., Epstein, DL, Gurr, TR, Lustik, MB, Marshall, MG., Ulfelder, J, and Woodward, M. 'A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability.' American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 54, No. 1 (January 2010), pp. 190–208
- Harff, B., 'No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and political Mass Murder since 1955,' American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 1 (February 2003), pp. 75–90