Next German federal election
Encyclopedia
The next German federal election will be an election to determine the 598 (or more) members of the 18th Bundestag
, the federal parliament of Germany.
If it is a regular election, it will be held on a Sunday or holiday between 1 September and 27 October 2013. However, it might be held earlier under certain or later under exceptional circumstances.
In the last federal election in 2009, the Christian Democratic Union
(CDU); its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union
(CSU); and the Free Democratic Party
(FDP) won the election with Angela Merkel
as Chancellor
and Guido Westerwelle
as Vice-Chancellor
. The Social Democratic Party
(SPD) however suffered its worst defeat, SPD leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier
conceded and announced his intention to become head of the opposition in the Bundestag
.
, and the Federal Election Law (Bundeswahlgesetz).
Article 39 of the Basic Law states that the Bundestag shall be elected between 46 and 48 months after the beginning of the legislative period. As the 17th Bundestag convened on 27 October 2009, the next election will be scheduled between 27 August and 27 October 2013. As the Federal Election Law states that the election day must be a Sunday or public holiday, the dates of 1, 8, 15, 22, 29 September and 3 (Day of German Unity), 6, 13, 20 or 27 October would be within the scope of the Basic Law and election law.
Usually, to avoid school holidays, a date in late September is usually chosen; this would make 22 or 29 September 2013 the most likely dates.
The Basic Law provides for three possibilities to shorten or prolong the legislative period, and therefore move election day, which have rarely or never been used.
In case of an imminent or ongoing attack on Germany the Federal President is to declare the Case of Defence (article 115a of the Basic Law). In this case, the legislative period ends six months after the end of the Case of Defence (article 115h).
The more probable cases of shortening the legislative period are provided for in articles 63 and 68 of the Basic Law. The former states that the Federal President may (or may not) dissolve the Bundestag if during a vacancy in the office of Federal Chancellor the Bundestag fails to elect a new Chancellor with a majority of votes within fourteen days after the Federal President proposing a new Chancellor. The latter article allows the Federal Chancellor to ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag after the Chancellor has lost a vote of confidence in the Bundestag. The President is once again free to choose whether to dissolve the Bundestag or not.
Of these three possibilities of changing the legislative period of a Bundestag, only the dissolution according to article 68 has been used in practice (1972, 1983 and 2005).
In case of a dissolution the snap election must take place within sixty days. During the Case of Defence the dissolution of the Bundestag is not possible.
This electoral system must be changed under an order of the Federal Constitutional Court. The court stated that a provision in the Federal Election Law which makes it possible for a party to lose seats due to more votes violates the constitutional guarantee of the electoral system being equal and direct.
This change should have been made by 30 June 2011. However, the government failed to present appropriate legislation in time to make this deadline.
The SPD names a chancellor-candidate while the CDU and the CSU name a common one. The smaller Bundestag parties (FDP, Left and Greens) usually do not name a chancellor-candidate as it is very improbable for such a candidate to actually be elected chancellor. They instead name one or two persons (Spitzenkandidaten) who are to become the faces of that party's campaign. Fringe parties often name a chancellor-candidate although there is nearly no chance for them to win seats in the Bundestag, not to speak of their candidate to become chancellor.
While a sitting chancellor is usually named chancellor-candidate for his or her own party, the main opposition party's process to determine their chancellor-candidate differs. Most times, such a person is determined in an inner party circle and then anointed in a party convention.
As the CDU/CSU is the main government party, CDU chairwoman (and incumbent chancellor) Angela Merkel
is unlikely to be challenged as chancellor-candidate unless she decides not to seek that post. In the SPD, the situation is a bit less clear: Usually, the party chairman (in this case, Sigmar Gabriel
) and the parliamentary party chairman (Frank-Walter Steinmeier
) are considered to be among the front runners for nomination. And so are ministerpresidents: during the 16-year chancellorship of Helmut Kohl, the SPD nominated a former Berlin Mayor
and four sitting ministerpresidents (govenors) against him. At the moment, Peer Steinbrück
, Minister of Finance during the 2005–2009 grand coalition and now a backbencher, is doing extremely well in opinion polls as he had gained reputation during the financial crisis.
Gabriel, Steinmeier and Steinbrück all have a bad electoral record as they all had lead their party into painful defeats in state or general elections (Gabriel and Steinbrück lost their inherited ministerpresident offices in 2003 and 2005, Steinmeier failed as a chancellor-candidate in 2009).
government, would be in reach of getting a majority of seats together.
West
Favorite coalition
Chancellor
Bundestag
The Bundestag is a federal legislative body in Germany. In practice Germany is governed by a bicameral legislature, of which the Bundestag serves as the lower house and the Bundesrat the upper house. The Bundestag is established by the German Basic Law of 1949, as the successor to the earlier...
, the federal parliament of Germany.
If it is a regular election, it will be held on a Sunday or holiday between 1 September and 27 October 2013. However, it might be held earlier under certain or later under exceptional circumstances.
In the last federal election in 2009, the Christian Democratic Union
Christian Democratic Union (Germany)
The Christian Democratic Union of Germany is a Christian democratic and conservative political party in Germany. It is regarded as on the centre-right of the German political spectrum...
(CDU); its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union
Christian Social Union of Bavaria
The Christian Social Union in Bavaria is a Christian democratic and conservative political party in Germany. It operates only in the state of Bavaria, while its sister party, the Christian Democratic Union , operates in the other 15 states of Germany...
(CSU); and the Free Democratic Party
Free Democratic Party (Germany)
The Free Democratic Party , abbreviated to FDP, is a centre-right classical liberal political party in Germany. It is led by Philipp Rösler and currently serves as the junior coalition partner to the Union in the German federal government...
(FDP) won the election with Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel
Angela Dorothea Merkel is the current Chancellor of Germany . Merkel, elected to the Bundestag from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, has been the chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union since 2000, and chairwoman of the CDU-CSU parliamentary coalition from 2002 to 2005.From 2005 to 2009 she led a...
as Chancellor
Chancellor of Germany
The Chancellor of Germany is, under the German 1949 constitution, the head of government of Germany...
and Guido Westerwelle
Guido Westerwelle
Guido Westerwelle [] is a German liberal politician, who, since 28 October 2009, has been serving as the Foreign Minister in the second cabinet of Chancellor Angela Merkel, and who was Vice Chancellor of Germany from 2009 to 2011. He is the first openly gay person to hold either of those positions...
as Vice-Chancellor
Vice-Chancellor of Germany
The Vice-Chancellor of Germany is, according to protocol, the second highest position in the Cabinet of GermanyIn case of the Chancellor's absence, the vice-chancellor acts in his or her place, for instance by heading cabinet meetings...
. The Social Democratic Party
Social Democratic Party of Germany
The Social Democratic Party of Germany is a social-democratic political party in Germany...
(SPD) however suffered its worst defeat, SPD leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Frank-Walter Steinmeier is a German politician of the Social Democratic Party of Germany , and currently the leader of the opposition in the Bundestag. Steinmeier was a close aide of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, serving as Chief of Staff in the German Chancellery from 1999 to 2005...
conceded and announced his intention to become head of the opposition in the Bundestag
Bundestag
The Bundestag is a federal legislative body in Germany. In practice Germany is governed by a bicameral legislature, of which the Bundestag serves as the lower house and the Bundesrat the upper house. The Bundestag is established by the German Basic Law of 1949, as the successor to the earlier...
.
Date
The date of the next German federal election is governed by the constitution, the Basic LawBasic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany
The Basic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany is the constitution of Germany. It was formally approved on 8 May 1949, and, with the signature of the Allies of World War II on 12 May, came into effect on 23 May, as the constitution of those states of West Germany that were initially included...
, and the Federal Election Law (Bundeswahlgesetz).
Article 39 of the Basic Law states that the Bundestag shall be elected between 46 and 48 months after the beginning of the legislative period. As the 17th Bundestag convened on 27 October 2009, the next election will be scheduled between 27 August and 27 October 2013. As the Federal Election Law states that the election day must be a Sunday or public holiday, the dates of 1, 8, 15, 22, 29 September and 3 (Day of German Unity), 6, 13, 20 or 27 October would be within the scope of the Basic Law and election law.
Usually, to avoid school holidays, a date in late September is usually chosen; this would make 22 or 29 September 2013 the most likely dates.
The Basic Law provides for three possibilities to shorten or prolong the legislative period, and therefore move election day, which have rarely or never been used.
In case of an imminent or ongoing attack on Germany the Federal President is to declare the Case of Defence (article 115a of the Basic Law). In this case, the legislative period ends six months after the end of the Case of Defence (article 115h).
The more probable cases of shortening the legislative period are provided for in articles 63 and 68 of the Basic Law. The former states that the Federal President may (or may not) dissolve the Bundestag if during a vacancy in the office of Federal Chancellor the Bundestag fails to elect a new Chancellor with a majority of votes within fourteen days after the Federal President proposing a new Chancellor. The latter article allows the Federal Chancellor to ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag after the Chancellor has lost a vote of confidence in the Bundestag. The President is once again free to choose whether to dissolve the Bundestag or not.
Of these three possibilities of changing the legislative period of a Bundestag, only the dissolution according to article 68 has been used in practice (1972, 1983 and 2005).
In case of a dissolution the snap election must take place within sixty days. During the Case of Defence the dissolution of the Bundestag is not possible.
Electoral system
In general, the Bundestag is elected using a mixed member proportional system. Voters have two votes: With their first they elect a member of Bundestag for their constituency, with the second they vote for a party. The seats in the Bundestag are generally distributed according to the second (party) votes. Until 2009, a party who won more districts in a given state than it was entitled to according to the number of second votes it received in that state could keep these "overhang" seats.This electoral system must be changed under an order of the Federal Constitutional Court. The court stated that a provision in the Federal Election Law which makes it possible for a party to lose seats due to more votes violates the constitutional guarantee of the electoral system being equal and direct.
This change should have been made by 30 June 2011. However, the government failed to present appropriate legislation in time to make this deadline.
Chancellor-candidates
Although the "chancellor-candidates" (Kanzlerkandidaten) play a very important role in election campaigns, their "office" is not regulated in any law. So it is up to each party to determine how (and if at all) to name a "chancellor-candidate".The SPD names a chancellor-candidate while the CDU and the CSU name a common one. The smaller Bundestag parties (FDP, Left and Greens) usually do not name a chancellor-candidate as it is very improbable for such a candidate to actually be elected chancellor. They instead name one or two persons (Spitzenkandidaten) who are to become the faces of that party's campaign. Fringe parties often name a chancellor-candidate although there is nearly no chance for them to win seats in the Bundestag, not to speak of their candidate to become chancellor.
While a sitting chancellor is usually named chancellor-candidate for his or her own party, the main opposition party's process to determine their chancellor-candidate differs. Most times, such a person is determined in an inner party circle and then anointed in a party convention.
As the CDU/CSU is the main government party, CDU chairwoman (and incumbent chancellor) Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel
Angela Dorothea Merkel is the current Chancellor of Germany . Merkel, elected to the Bundestag from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, has been the chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union since 2000, and chairwoman of the CDU-CSU parliamentary coalition from 2002 to 2005.From 2005 to 2009 she led a...
is unlikely to be challenged as chancellor-candidate unless she decides not to seek that post. In the SPD, the situation is a bit less clear: Usually, the party chairman (in this case, Sigmar Gabriel
Sigmar Gabriel
Sigmar Gabriel is a German politician currently chairing the Social Democratic Party of Germany .On 15 December 1999, after the resignation of Gerhard Glogowski, who had succeeded Gerhard Schröder in office, Gabriel became Minister-President of Lower Saxony and served until 4 March 2003...
) and the parliamentary party chairman (Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Frank-Walter Steinmeier is a German politician of the Social Democratic Party of Germany , and currently the leader of the opposition in the Bundestag. Steinmeier was a close aide of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, serving as Chief of Staff in the German Chancellery from 1999 to 2005...
) are considered to be among the front runners for nomination. And so are ministerpresidents: during the 16-year chancellorship of Helmut Kohl, the SPD nominated a former Berlin Mayor
Governing Mayor of Berlin
The Governing Mayor of Berlin is the head of government in the city-state of Berlin, one of the States of Germany. It is the equivalent of the Ministers-President of the other German states except the two other city-states of Hamburg and Bremen, where the heads of government are called "First...
and four sitting ministerpresidents (govenors) against him. At the moment, Peer Steinbrück
Peer Steinbrück
Peer Steinbrück is a German social democratic politician. From 2005 to 2009 he served as German Federal Minister of Finance in the cabinet of Angela Merkel.- Early political career, Minister President :...
, Minister of Finance during the 2005–2009 grand coalition and now a backbencher, is doing extremely well in opinion polls as he had gained reputation during the financial crisis.
Gabriel, Steinmeier and Steinbrück all have a bad electoral record as they all had lead their party into painful defeats in state or general elections (Gabriel and Steinbrück lost their inherited ministerpresident offices in 2003 and 2005, Steinmeier failed as a chancellor-candidate in 2009).
Polls
In Germany, there are regular polls during the whole of the legislative period. Current polls as of September 2011 suggest that, were the next election to take place the next Sunday, Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU would be the first party with 31% of the vote, the Social Democrats would win 29%, the Greens 19%, the Left 9% and the Free Democratic Party would stay off the bundestag with about 4% of the votes cast. Every poll suggests that SPD and Greens, partners in the 1998–2005 SchröderGerhard Schröder
Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schröder is a German politician, and was Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2005. A member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany , he led a coalition government of the SPD and the Greens. Before becoming a full-time politician, he was a lawyer, and before becoming Chancellor...
government, would be in reach of getting a majority of seats together.
Polls
West and East| Institute |
Date | CDU/CSU CDU/CSU CDU/CSU, unofficially also referred to as the Union parties or the Union, is the name of the Bundestag parliamentary faction comprising the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria , considered to be sister parties... |
SPD |
GREEN |
FDP Free Democratic Party Free Democratic Party is the name of several political parties around the world. It usually designates a party that is ideologically based around liberalism... |
LINKE |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 election | 33.8% | 23% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 36% | 22% | 21% | 5% | 9% | 7% | |
| Infratest dimap | 36% | 25% | 19% | 5% | 8% | 7% | |
| Infratest dimap | 35% | 27% | 17% | 5% | 10% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 36% | 22% | 20% | 5% | 10% | 7% | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 36% | 27% | 17% | 5% | 9% | 6% | |
| Emnid | 34% | 25% | 19% | 6% | 10% | 6% | |
| Infratest dimap | 35% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 9% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 36% | 22% | 19% | 5% | 11% | 7% | |
| GMS | 34% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 10% | 6% | |
| Infratest dimap | 37% | 25% | 18% | 5% | 8% | 7% | |
| Emnid | 35% | 25% | 19% | 6% | 9% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 36% | 23% | 18% | 5% | 10% | 8% | |
| Allensbach | 36% | 28.5% | 16.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5% | |
| Infratest dimap | 35% | 27% | 17% | 6% | 8% | 7% | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 36% | 29% | 15% | 5% | 9% | 5% | |
| Emnid | 35% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 9% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 34% | 27% | 16% | 5% | 10% | 8% | |
| Emnid | 33% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 9% | 7% | |
| Forsa | 36% | 26% | 16% | 5% | 10% | 7% | |
| Infratest dimap | 35% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 9% | 7% | |
| Emnid | 35% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 36% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 7% | |
| Forsa | 36% | 26% | 18% | 5% | 9% | 6% | |
| Allensbach | 36.5% | 29% | 15% | 6.5% | 8% | 5% | |
| Infratest dimap | 35% | 28% | 20% | 5% | 7% | 5% | |
| Emnid | 34% | 28% | 18% | 5% | 9% | 6% | |
| GMS | 34% | 27% | 20% | 5% | 8% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 33% | 25% | 20% | 5% | 8% | 8% | |
| Infratest dimap | 35% | 27% | 21% | 5% | 7% | 5% | |
| Emnid | 34% | 27% | 20% | 4% | 9% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 33% | 25% | 21% | 5% | 8% | 8% | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 34% | 28% | 19% | 5% | 8% | 6% | |
| Emnid | 33% | 26% | 23% | 5% | 8% | 5% | |
| Forsa | 30% | 23% | 28% | 3% | 9% | 7% | |
| Infratest dimap | 33% | 27% | 23% | 5% | 7% | 5% | |
| Emnid | 33% | 25% | 24% | 4% | 8% | 6% | |
| Emnid | 30% | 24% | 27% | 4% | 8% | 7% | |
| Infratest dimap | 33% | 26% | 24% | 4% | 8% | 5% | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 34% | 27% | 23% | 4% | 7% | 5% | |
| Emnid | 32% | 23% | 24% | 5% | 9% | 7% | |
| Forsa | 31% | 21% | 28% | 4% | 8% | 8% | |
| Emnid | 34% | 24% | 24% | 4% | 8% | 6% | |
| Forsa | 31% | 21% | 28% | 4% | 8% | 8% | |
| Infratest dimap | 35% | 26% | 23% | 4% | 7% | 5% | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 33% | 29% | 21% | 4% | 7% | 5% | |
| Forsa | 32% | 26% | 21% | 5% | 8% | 8% | |
| Forsa | 33% | 25% | 21% | 5% | 9% | 7% | |
| Forsa | 31% | 29% | 19% | 4% | 9% | 8% | |
| Forsa | 31% | 28% | 20% | 3% | 9% | 9% | |
| Emnid | 32% | 28% | 17% | 4% | 7% | 12% | |
| Institute |
Date | CDU/CSU CDU/CSU CDU/CSU, unofficially also referred to as the Union parties or the Union, is the name of the Bundestag parliamentary faction comprising the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria , considered to be sister parties... |
SPD |
GREEN |
FDP Free Democratic Party Free Democratic Party is the name of several political parties around the world. It usually designates a party that is ideologically based around liberalism... |
LINKE |
Others |
| 2009 election | 33.8% | 23% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 6% |
West
| Institute |
Date | CDU/CSU CDU/CSU CDU/CSU, unofficially also referred to as the Union parties or the Union, is the name of the Bundestag parliamentary faction comprising the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria , considered to be sister parties... |
SPD |
GREEN |
FDP Free Democratic Party Free Democratic Party is the name of several political parties around the world. It usually designates a party that is ideologically based around liberalism... |
LINKE |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 37% | 26% | 21% | 5% | 4% | 7% | |
| Infratest dimap | 36% | 27% | 21% | 5% | 5% | 6% | |
| Allensbach | 39% | 27% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 6% | |
| Infratest dimap | 37% | 29% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 6% |
Favorite coalition
| Institute |
Date | CDU/FDP |
SPD/GREENS | CDU/SPD | CDU/GREENS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emnid | 10% | 32% | 23% | 15% | |
Chancellor
| Institute |
Date | Merkel Angela Merkel Angela Dorothea Merkel is the current Chancellor of Germany . Merkel, elected to the Bundestag from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, has been the chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union since 2000, and chairwoman of the CDU-CSU parliamentary coalition from 2002 to 2005.From 2005 to 2009 she led a... |
Steinmeier Frank-Walter Steinmeier Frank-Walter Steinmeier is a German politician of the Social Democratic Party of Germany , and currently the leader of the opposition in the Bundestag. Steinmeier was a close aide of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, serving as Chief of Staff in the German Chancellery from 1999 to 2005... |
Trittin Jürgen Trittin Jürgen Trittin is a German Green politician. He was Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety from 1998 to 2005 in Germany.- Life and work :Trittin was born in Bremen... |
Künast Renate Künast Renate Künast is a German politician who is chairwoman of the Alliance '90/The Greens Bundestag parliamentary group. She was the Minister of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture from 2001 to 2005... |
Kretschmann |
Roth Claudia Roth Claudia Benedikta Roth is a German Green Party politician and one of the two current party chairs, together with Cem Özdemir.- Biography :... |
Özdemir Cem Özdemir Cem Özdemir is a German politician. He is co-chairman of the German political party Alliance '90/The Greens, together with Claudia Roth... |
Gabriel Sigmar Gabriel Sigmar Gabriel is a German politician currently chairing the Social Democratic Party of Germany .On 15 December 1999, after the resignation of Gerhard Glogowski, who had succeeded Gerhard Schröder in office, Gabriel became Minister-President of Lower Saxony and served until 4 March 2003... |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forsa | 43% | 29% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | 44% | 29% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | 40% | 31% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | 40% | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | 38% | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | – | – | 12% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 10% | – | |
| Forsa | 39% | 35% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | 51% | – | 28% | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | 52% | – | – | 27% | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | 45% | 39% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Forsa | 49% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 22% | |
| Forsa | 39% | 35% | – | – | – | – | – | – |