Chine-USA, la guerre programmee
Encyclopedia
Chine-USA, la guerre programmée ("China
-USA, the upcoming war") is a book authored by Jean-François Susbielle
, published in 2006. It explores the politics and economics of both China and the USA, claiming that their relative self-interest are becoming more conflicting, to the point that it would bring them to war.
Susbielle's main theory is that China, after a century of humiliation (from the Opium War until the end of World War II
), has focused its energies and resources to gain the only status it sees for itself, which is to be the dominant power of the world. For the time being, China adapts a pragmatic low profile in international politics, since it does not yet have quite the power to fully protect its interests. China uses its formidable economic boom to gain access to the technology required to build a significant military force.
For its part, the USA is divided in two camps: the Wal-Mart
/Wall Street
camp and The Pentagon
/Neocons camp.
For the Wal-Mart/Wall Street camp, China is a strategic ally that supplies the USA with enormous quantities of cheap consumer goods, which is beneficial to the American economy as it tends to help controlling the inflation while allowing American consumers to buy even more goods and services.
For the Pentagon/Neocons camp, China is a strategic challenge that must be contained.
In the mean time, Susbielle contends that the main strategic objective of the USA in the world is to have power over all major oil fields, so as to control China’s access to a form of energy that it desperately requires in order to maintain its economic growth. This, in his view, explains why the USA invaded Iraq
in 2003. Also, the "War on terror
" led by the USA would simply be a pretext to encircle China with American military bases (in Afghanistan
, Kazakhstan
, Tajikistan
, Philippines
, Indonesia
, etc.).
For the time being, according to Susbielle, the Wal-Mart/Wall Street lobby has the upper hand in the debate, but there will come a time, maybe as soon as 2008, but most probably around 2020, when the inconvenient of China’s economic, political and military rise will outweigh the benefits. When this happens, the Pentagon/Neocons camp will regain control of the debate and will impose its solutions.
China by then will have accumulated the sort of military power that it will use to defend its own vital interests. The ensuing tension will lead to a full fledge military war.
According to Susbielle, the current situation in Eastern Asia, with a rise in nationalism in many countries (China, Japan
, Korea
), accompanied by a sustained weapons race, is analogous to the situation that prevailed in Europe
in the early 20th century, that eventually led to World War I
. Susbielle predicts that the war against China will actually be launched by Japan.
China
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
-USA, the upcoming war") is a book authored by Jean-François Susbielle
Jean-François Susbielle
Jean-François Susbielle is a French author and specialist in geopolitics and geoeconomics. He was born in Paris on September 29, 1954 and graduated in engineering from the Ecole des Mines and in international affairs from the Paris Political Sciences Institute . He now works as a consultant in...
, published in 2006. It explores the politics and economics of both China and the USA, claiming that their relative self-interest are becoming more conflicting, to the point that it would bring them to war.
Susbielle's main theory is that China, after a century of humiliation (from the Opium War until the end of World War II
World War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
), has focused its energies and resources to gain the only status it sees for itself, which is to be the dominant power of the world. For the time being, China adapts a pragmatic low profile in international politics, since it does not yet have quite the power to fully protect its interests. China uses its formidable economic boom to gain access to the technology required to build a significant military force.
For its part, the USA is divided in two camps: the Wal-Mart
Wal-Mart
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. , branded as Walmart since 2008 and Wal-Mart before then, is an American public multinational corporation that runs chains of large discount department stores and warehouse stores. The company is the world's 18th largest public corporation, according to the Forbes Global 2000...
/Wall Street
Wall Street
Wall Street refers to the financial district of New York City, named after and centered on the eight-block-long street running from Broadway to South Street on the East River in Lower Manhattan. Over time, the term has become a metonym for the financial markets of the United States as a whole, or...
camp and The Pentagon
The Pentagon
The Pentagon is the headquarters of the United States Department of Defense, located in Arlington County, Virginia. As a symbol of the U.S. military, "the Pentagon" is often used metonymically to refer to the Department of Defense rather than the building itself.Designed by the American architect...
/Neocons camp.
For the Wal-Mart/Wall Street camp, China is a strategic ally that supplies the USA with enormous quantities of cheap consumer goods, which is beneficial to the American economy as it tends to help controlling the inflation while allowing American consumers to buy even more goods and services.
For the Pentagon/Neocons camp, China is a strategic challenge that must be contained.
In the mean time, Susbielle contends that the main strategic objective of the USA in the world is to have power over all major oil fields, so as to control China’s access to a form of energy that it desperately requires in order to maintain its economic growth. This, in his view, explains why the USA invaded Iraq
Iraq
Iraq ; officially the Republic of Iraq is a country in Western Asia spanning most of the northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian Desert....
in 2003. Also, the "War on terror
War on Terror
The War on Terror is a term commonly applied to an international military campaign led by the United States and the United Kingdom with the support of other North Atlantic Treaty Organisation as well as non-NATO countries...
" led by the USA would simply be a pretext to encircle China with American military bases (in Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Afghanistan , officially the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, is a landlocked country located in the centre of Asia, forming South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. With a population of about 29 million, it has an area of , making it the 42nd most populous and 41st largest nation in the world...
, Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan , officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a transcontinental country in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Ranked as the ninth largest country in the world, it is also the world's largest landlocked country; its territory of is greater than Western Europe...
, Tajikistan
Tajikistan
Tajikistan , officially the Republic of Tajikistan , is a mountainous landlocked country in Central Asia. Afghanistan borders it to the south, Uzbekistan to the west, Kyrgyzstan to the north, and China to the east....
, Philippines
Philippines
The Philippines , officially known as the Republic of the Philippines , is a country in Southeast Asia in the western Pacific Ocean. To its north across the Luzon Strait lies Taiwan. West across the South China Sea sits Vietnam...
, Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia , officially the Republic of Indonesia , is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania. Indonesia is an archipelago comprising approximately 13,000 islands. It has 33 provinces with over 238 million people, and is the world's fourth most populous country. Indonesia is a republic, with an...
, etc.).
For the time being, according to Susbielle, the Wal-Mart/Wall Street lobby has the upper hand in the debate, but there will come a time, maybe as soon as 2008, but most probably around 2020, when the inconvenient of China’s economic, political and military rise will outweigh the benefits. When this happens, the Pentagon/Neocons camp will regain control of the debate and will impose its solutions.
China by then will have accumulated the sort of military power that it will use to defend its own vital interests. The ensuing tension will lead to a full fledge military war.
According to Susbielle, the current situation in Eastern Asia, with a rise in nationalism in many countries (China, Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
, Korea
Korea
Korea ) is an East Asian geographic region that is currently divided into two separate sovereign states — North Korea and South Korea. Located on the Korean Peninsula, Korea is bordered by the People's Republic of China to the northwest, Russia to the northeast, and is separated from Japan to the...
), accompanied by a sustained weapons race, is analogous to the situation that prevailed in Europe
Europe
Europe is, by convention, one of the world's seven continents. Comprising the westernmost peninsula of Eurasia, Europe is generally 'divided' from Asia to its east by the watershed divides of the Ural and Caucasus Mountains, the Ural River, the Caspian and Black Seas, and the waterways connecting...
in the early 20th century, that eventually led to World War I
World War I
World War I , which was predominantly called the World War or the Great War from its occurrence until 1939, and the First World War or World War I thereafter, was a major war centred in Europe that began on 28 July 1914 and lasted until 11 November 1918...
. Susbielle predicts that the war against China will actually be launched by Japan.
See also
- Chinese Intelligence Operations in the United StatesChinese intelligence operations in the United StatesThe People's Republic of China has and is currently using a widespread effort to acquire U.S. military technology and classified information. To fulfill its long-term military development goals, the PRC uses a variety of methods to obtain U.S. technology; including espionage, the exploitation of...