Robin Hanson
Encyclopedia
Robin D. Hanson is an associate professor
of economics
at George Mason University
and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute
of Oxford University. He is known as an expert on idea futures, markets and was involved in the creation of the Foresight Exchange and DARPA's FutureMAP project. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets such as Inkling Markets and Consensus Point (where Hanson is Chief Scientist), and has conducted research on signaling
. Hanson received a B.S.
in physics
from the University of California, Irvine
in 1981, an M.S.
in physics and an M.A.
in Conceptual Foundations of Science from the University of Chicago
in 1984, and a Ph.D.
in social science from Caltech in 1997. Before getting his Ph.D he researched artificial intelligence
, Bayesian statistics
and hypertext
publishing at Lockheed, NASA
and elsewhere. In addition, he started the first internal corporate prediction market at Xanadu
in 1990. He is married to Peggy Jackson, a hospice
social worker. He is the son of a Southern Baptist preacher. Robin has elected to have his head cryonic
ally preserved in the event of medical death.
Hanson has expressed great disappointment in the cancellation of the FutureMAP project, and he attributes this to the controversy surrounding the related Total Information Awareness
program. He supports a proposed system of government called 'futarchy
', where policies would be determined by prediction markets. Until mid-2009, the blog
Overcoming Bias was a group blog co-edited by Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsky
, although it is now Hanson's personal blog.
Hanson has received publicity in many mainstream publications such as the New York Times. A 2003 article in Fortune
examined Hanson's work, noting, among other things, that he is a believer in cryonics
, his ideas have found some acceptance among extropians on the Internet
, and he was motivated to seek his doctorate
so that his theories would gain a wider audience.
Tyler Cowen
has described his book Discover Your Inner Economist as "an (attempted) rebuttal to Robin" and notes that he is a major intellectual figure in the work, which includes a fairly detailed discussion of Hanson's views:
Professor
A professor is a scholarly teacher; the precise meaning of the term varies by country. Literally, professor derives from Latin as a "person who professes" being usually an expert in arts or sciences; a teacher of high rank...
of economics
Economics
Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from the Ancient Greek from + , hence "rules of the house"...
at George Mason University
George Mason University
George Mason University is a public university based in unincorporated Fairfax County, Virginia, United States, south of and adjacent to the city of Fairfax. Additional campuses are located nearby in Arlington County, Prince William County, and Loudoun County...
and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute
Future of Humanity Institute
The Future of Humanity Institute is part of the Faculty of Philosophy and the James Martin 21st Century School at University of Oxford, England...
of Oxford University. He is known as an expert on idea futures, markets and was involved in the creation of the Foresight Exchange and DARPA's FutureMAP project. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets such as Inkling Markets and Consensus Point (where Hanson is Chief Scientist), and has conducted research on signaling
Signalling (economics)
In economics, more precisely in contract theory, signalling is the idea that one party credibly conveys some information about itself to another party...
. Hanson received a B.S.
Bachelor of Science
A Bachelor of Science is an undergraduate academic degree awarded for completed courses that generally last three to five years .-Australia:In Australia, the BSc is a 3 year degree, offered from 1st year on...
in physics
Physics
Physics is a natural science that involves the study of matter and its motion through spacetime, along with related concepts such as energy and force. More broadly, it is the general analysis of nature, conducted in order to understand how the universe behaves.Physics is one of the oldest academic...
from the University of California, Irvine
University of California, Irvine
The University of California, Irvine , founded in 1965, is one of the ten campuses of the University of California, located in Irvine, California, USA...
in 1981, an M.S.
Master of Science
A Master of Science is a postgraduate academic master's degree awarded by universities in many countries. The degree is typically studied for in the sciences including the social sciences.-Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay:...
in physics and an M.A.
Master of Arts (postgraduate)
A Master of Arts from the Latin Magister Artium, is a type of Master's degree awarded by universities in many countries. The M.A. is usually contrasted with the M.S. or M.Sc. degrees...
in Conceptual Foundations of Science from the University of Chicago
University of Chicago
The University of Chicago is a private research university in Chicago, Illinois, USA. It was founded by the American Baptist Education Society with a donation from oil magnate and philanthropist John D. Rockefeller and incorporated in 1890...
in 1984, and a Ph.D.
Ph.D.
A Ph.D. is a Doctor of Philosophy, an academic degree.Ph.D. may also refer to:* Ph.D. , a 1980s British group*Piled Higher and Deeper, a web comic strip*PhD: Phantasy Degree, a Korean comic series* PhD Docbook renderer, an XML renderer...
in social science from Caltech in 1997. Before getting his Ph.D he researched artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence is the intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science that aims to create it. AI textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents" where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its...
, Bayesian statistics
Bayesian statistics
Bayesian statistics is that subset of the entire field of statistics in which the evidence about the true state of the world is expressed in terms of degrees of belief or, more specifically, Bayesian probabilities...
and hypertext
Hypertext
Hypertext is text displayed on a computer or other electronic device with references to other text that the reader can immediately access, usually by a mouse click or keypress sequence. Apart from running text, hypertext may contain tables, images and other presentational devices. Hypertext is the...
publishing at Lockheed, NASA
NASA
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is the agency of the United States government that is responsible for the nation's civilian space program and for aeronautics and aerospace research...
and elsewhere. In addition, he started the first internal corporate prediction market at Xanadu
Project Xanadu
Project Xanadu was the first hypertext project, founded in 1960 by Ted Nelson. Administrators of Project Xanadu have declared it an improvement over the World Wide Web, with mission statement: "Today's popular software simulates paper...
in 1990. He is married to Peggy Jackson, a hospice
Hospice
Hospice is a type of care and a philosophy of care which focuses on the palliation of a terminally ill patient's symptoms.In the United States and Canada:*Gentiva Health Services, national provider of hospice and home health services...
social worker. He is the son of a Southern Baptist preacher. Robin has elected to have his head cryonic
Cryonics
Cryonics is the low-temperature preservation of humans and animals who can no longer be sustained by contemporary medicine, with the hope that healing and resuscitation may be possible in the future. Cryopreservation of people or large animals is not reversible with current technology...
ally preserved in the event of medical death.
Hanson has expressed great disappointment in the cancellation of the FutureMAP project, and he attributes this to the controversy surrounding the related Total Information Awareness
Information Awareness Office
The Information Awareness Office was established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in January 2002 to bring together several DARPA projects focused on applying surveillance and information technology to track and monitor terrorists and other asymmetric threats to national security,...
program. He supports a proposed system of government called 'futarchy
Futarchy
Futarchy is a form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which elected officials define measures of national welfare and prediction markets are used to determine which policies will have the most positive effect....
', where policies would be determined by prediction markets. Until mid-2009, the blog
Blog
A blog is a type of website or part of a website supposed to be updated with new content from time to time. Blogs are usually maintained by an individual with regular entries of commentary, descriptions of events, or other material such as graphics or video. Entries are commonly displayed in...
Overcoming Bias was a group blog co-edited by Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Shlomo Yudkowsky is an American artificial intelligence researcher concerned with the singularity and an advocate of friendly artificial intelligence, living in Redwood City, California.- Biography :...
, although it is now Hanson's personal blog.
Hanson has received publicity in many mainstream publications such as the New York Times. A 2003 article in Fortune
Fortune (magazine)
Fortune is a global business magazine published by Time Inc. Founded by Henry Luce in 1930, the publishing business, consisting of Time, Life, Fortune, and Sports Illustrated, grew to become Time Warner. In turn, AOL grew as it acquired Time Warner in 2000 when Time Warner was the world's largest...
examined Hanson's work, noting, among other things, that he is a believer in cryonics
Cryonics
Cryonics is the low-temperature preservation of humans and animals who can no longer be sustained by contemporary medicine, with the hope that healing and resuscitation may be possible in the future. Cryopreservation of people or large animals is not reversible with current technology...
, his ideas have found some acceptance among extropians on the Internet
Internet
The Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet protocol suite to serve billions of users worldwide...
, and he was motivated to seek his doctorate
Doctorate
A doctorate is an academic degree or professional degree that in most countries refers to a class of degrees which qualify the holder to teach in a specific field, A doctorate is an academic degree or professional degree that in most countries refers to a class of degrees which qualify the holder...
so that his theories would gain a wider audience.
Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen is an American economist, academic, and writer. He occupies the Holbert C. Harris Chair of economics as a professor at George Mason University and is co-author, with Alex Tabarrok, of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution...
has described his book Discover Your Inner Economist as "an (attempted) rebuttal to Robin" and notes that he is a major intellectual figure in the work, which includes a fairly detailed discussion of Hanson's views:
External links
- Overcoming Bias
- GMU Page
- NoDoom - Dr. Hanson's critique of the Doomsday argumentDoomsday argumentThe Doomsday argument is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far...
- Video discussions/debates in which Hanson has taken part on Bloggingheads.tvBloggingheads.tvBloggingheads.tv is a political, world events, philosophy, and science video blog discussion site in which the participants take part in an active back and forth conversation via webcam which is then broadcast online to viewers...
- Malthus v. the Singularity NY Times' John Tierney discusses Dr. Hanson's paper on the Technological singularityTechnological singularityTechnological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as...
- You Want Innovation? - The NY Times discusses Dr. Hanson's idea that prizes spur more innovation than grants
- Cut Medicine in Half - Dr. Hanson's argument that the USA spends too much on health care now, and on the wrong kind
- Hanson on Paternalism - Dr. Hanson debates fellow economist David Balan on the merits of government paternalism (WMA audio)
- Podcast featuring Hanson Dr. Hanson discusses health care on EconTalkEconTalkEconTalk is a weekly podcast hosted by professor Russell Roberts at George Mason University. Roberts interviews guests—often professional economists—on topics in economics....
- Bloggingheads.tv: Costly Truth-Seeking Will Wilkinson interviews Dr. Hanson (video & audio)
- OSCON 07: Common Biases - Dr. Hanson on overcoming common biases
- Can We Foresee to Disagree? - Dr. Hanson on Disagreement and how to overcome it
- EconTalkEconTalkEconTalk is a weekly podcast hosted by professor Russell Roberts at George Mason University. Roberts interviews guests—often professional economists—on topics in economics....
Podcast: Is Economics a Science? - Dr. Hanson on disagreement in economics - Bloggingheads.tv: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence Karl Smith interviews Dr. Hanson (video & audio)