Retrospective determinism
Encyclopedia
Retrospective determinism is the logical fallacy that because something happened, it was therefore bound to happen; the term was coined by the French philosopher Henri Bergson
. For example:
This argument gives no logical grounds to conclude Caesar's assassination was the only possible outcome, or even the most likely outcome of the circumstances. Simply asserting this is committing the fallacy of retrospective determinism. This type of fallacy is often used as a build-up to a hasty generalization
: because something happened in given circumstances, it was not only bound to happen, but will in fact always happen given those circumstances. For example:
This not only does not follow on logical grounds, but is false: a dictator may be murdered by a political rival, killed in a war with a foreign power, or simply die by accident or natural causes. Discounting these possibilities, it still does not follow that any dictator, if they lived long enough, would be assassinated because Caesar was assassinated. While the conclusion is correct, the premise is faulty. Caesar's assassination does not predict the inevitable assassination of all other dictators.
Henri Bergson
Henri-Louis Bergson was a major French philosopher, influential especially in the first half of the 20th century. Bergson convinced many thinkers that immediate experience and intuition are more significant than rationalism and science for understanding reality.He was awarded the 1927 Nobel Prize...
. For example:
- When he declared himself dictatorDictatorA dictator is a ruler who assumes sole and absolute power but without hereditary ascension such as an absolute monarch. When other states call the head of state of a particular state a dictator, that state is called a dictatorship...
of the Roman RepublicRoman RepublicThe Roman Republic was the period of the ancient Roman civilization where the government operated as a republic. It began with the overthrow of the Roman monarchy, traditionally dated around 508 BC, and its replacement by a government headed by two consuls, elected annually by the citizens and...
, Julius CaesarJulius CaesarGaius Julius Caesar was a Roman general and statesman and a distinguished writer of Latin prose. He played a critical role in the gradual transformation of the Roman Republic into the Roman Empire....
was bound to be assassinated.
This argument gives no logical grounds to conclude Caesar's assassination was the only possible outcome, or even the most likely outcome of the circumstances. Simply asserting this is committing the fallacy of retrospective determinism. This type of fallacy is often used as a build-up to a hasty generalization
Hasty generalization
Hasty generalization is a logical fallacy of faulty generalization by reaching an inductive generalization based on insufficient evidence essentially making a hasty conclusion without considering all of the variables...
: because something happened in given circumstances, it was not only bound to happen, but will in fact always happen given those circumstances. For example:
- Caesar was assassinated when he declared himself dictator. Sic semper tyrannisSic semper tyrannisSic semper tyrannis is a Latin phrase meaning "thus always to tyrants." It is sometimes mistranslated as "down with the tyrant." The phrase is said to have originated with Marcus Junius Brutus during the assassination of Julius Caesar....
: this goes to show that all dictators will eventually be assassinated.
This not only does not follow on logical grounds, but is false: a dictator may be murdered by a political rival, killed in a war with a foreign power, or simply die by accident or natural causes. Discounting these possibilities, it still does not follow that any dictator, if they lived long enough, would be assassinated because Caesar was assassinated. While the conclusion is correct, the premise is faulty. Caesar's assassination does not predict the inevitable assassination of all other dictators.
See also
- Historian's fallacyHistorian's fallacyThe historian's fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when one assumes that decision makers of the past viewed events from the same perspective and having the same information as those subsequently analyzing the decision...
- Post hoc ergo propter hocPost hoc ergo propter hocPost hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for "after this, therefore because of this," is a logical fallacy that states, "Since that event followed this one, that event must have been caused by this one." It is often shortened to simply post hoc and is also sometimes referred to as false cause,...