George William “Bill” James (born October 5, 1949, in
Holton, KansasHolton is a city in and the county seat of Jackson County, Kansas, United States. It is part of the Topeka, Kansas Metropolitan Statistical Area. The population was 3,353 at the 2000 census.-History:...
) is a
baseballBaseball is a bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players each. The goal is to score runs by hitting a thrown ball with a bat and touching a series of four bases arranged at the corners of a ninety-foot square, or diamond...
writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he termed
sabermetricsSabermetrics is the analysis of baseball through objective evidence, especially baseball statistics. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research...
in reference to the
Society for American Baseball ResearchThe Society for American Baseball Research was established in Cooperstown, New York, in August 1971 by Bob Davids. The Society's mission is to foster the research and dissemination of the history and record of baseball, while generating interest in the game...
(SABR), scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data, in an attempt to determine why teams win and lose. In 2006,
TimeTime is an American newsmagazine. A European edition is published from London. Time Europe covers the Middle East, Africa and, since 2003, Latin America. An Asian edition is based in Hong Kong. As of 2009, Time no longer publishes a Canadian advertiser edition...
named him in the
Time 100The Time 100 is an annual list of the 100 most influential people in the world, as assembled by Time. First published in 1999 as a result of a debate among several academics, the list has become an annual event.-History and format:...
as one of the most influential people in the world. He is currently a Senior Advisor on Baseball Operations for the
Boston Red SoxThe Boston Red Sox are a member of the Major League Baseball’s American League Eastern Division. Since , the Red Sox's home ballpark has been Fenway Park. The "Red Sox" name originates from the iconic uniform feature....
.
Early life
After four years at the
University of KansasThe University of Kansas , the State of Kansas Flagship university , is a public research university with campuses located in Lawrence, Kansas City, and Overland Park, Kansas with the main campus being located atop Mount Oread in Lawrence...
residing at Stephenson Scholarship hall, and one course short of graduating, James joined the
ArmyThe United States Army is the branch of the United States Military responsible for land-based military operations. It is the largest and oldest established branch of the U.S. military and is one of seven uniformed services...
in 1971. James was the last person in Kansas to be drafted for the
Vietnam warThe Vietnam War or the Second Indochina War was a Cold War military conflict that occurred in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia from 1959 to 30 April 1975...
, although he never saw action there. Instead, he spent two years stationed in
South KoreaSouth Korea, officially the Republic of Korea and often simply referred to as Korea, is a country in East Asia, located on the southern half of the Korean Peninsula. It is neighbored by China to the west, Japan to the east, and North Korea to the north. Its capital is Seoul, the second largest...
, during which time he wrote to KU about taking his final class. He was told he actually had met all his graduation requirements, so he returned to Lawrence in 1973 with degrees in English and economics. He also finished an Education degree in 1975, likewise from the University of Kansas.
The Bill James Baseball Abstracts
An aspiring writer and obsessive fan, James began writing baseball articles after leaving the
United States ArmyThe United States Army is the branch of the United States Military responsible for land-based military operations. It is the largest and oldest established branch of the U.S. military and is one of seven uniformed services...
in his mid-twenties. Many of his first baseball writings came while he was doing night shifts as a security guard at the Stokely Van Camp pork and beans factory. Unlike most writers, his pieces did not recount games in epic terms or offer insights gleaned from interviews with players. A typical James piece posed a question (
e.g., "Which pitchers and catchers allow runners to steal the most bases?"), and then presented data and analysis written in a lively, insightful, and witty style that offered an answer.
Editors considered James' pieces so unusual that few believed them suitable for their readers. In an effort to reach a wider audience, James self-published an annual book titled
The Bill James Baseball Abstract beginning in 1977. The first edition of the book presented 80 pages of in-depth statistics compiled from James' study of
box scoreIn competitive sports, games or matches are often summarized in a box score. The box score lists the game score as well as individual and team achievements in the game.Among the sports in which box scores are common are baseball and basketball.- Basketball :...
s from the preceding season.
Over the next three years James' work won respect, including a very favorable review by
Daniel OkrentDaniel Okrent is an American writer and editor. He is best known for having served as the first public editor of The New York Times newspaper, and for inventing Rotisserie League Baseball.-Education and career:...
in
Sports IllustratedSports Illustrated is an American sports magazine owned by media conglomerate Time Warner. It has over 3 million subscribers and is read by 23 million adults each week, including over 18 million men, 19% of the adult males in the United States. It was the first magazine with circulation over one...
. New annual editions added essays on teams and players. By 1982 sales had increased tenfold, and a media conglomerate agreed to publish and distribute future editions.
While writers had published books about baseball statistics before (most notably
Earnshaw CookEarnshaw Cook was an early researcher and proponent of sabermetrics, the analysis of baseball through statistical means.-Engineering:...
's
Percentage Baseball, in the 1960s), few had ever reached a mass audience. Attempts to imitate James' work spawned a flood of books and articles that continue to this day.
In 1988, James ceased writing the
Abstract, citing workload-related burnout and concern about the volume of statistics on the market. He has continued to publish hardcover books about baseball history, which have sold well and received admiring reviews; these books include three editions of
The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1985, 1988, 2001, the last entitled
The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.)
During the years after the annual
Abstract ceased publication, James has published several series of new annuals:
- The Baseball Book (1990–1992) was a loosely-organized collection of commentary, profiles, historical articles, and occasional pieces of research.
- The Player Ratings Book (1993–95) offered statistics and 50-word profiles aimed at the fantasy baseball
Fantasy baseball is a game where players manage imaginary baseball teams based on the real-life performance of baseball players, and compete against one another using those players' statistics to score points...
enthusiast.
- The Bill James Handbook (2003-present) provides past-season statistics and next-season projections for Major League players and teams, and career data for all current Major League players.
- The Bill James Gold Mine (2008-present) is a collection of new essays and never-before-seen statistics, as well as profiles of players and teams.
In 2008, James launched
Bill James Online. Subscribers can read James’ new, original writing and interact with one another—as well as with James—in a question-and-answer format. The web site also offers new “profiles” of teams and players full of facts and statistics that hope to one day map what James has termed “the lost island of baseball statistics.”
Innovations
Among the statistical innovations attributable to James are:
- Runs Created
Runs created is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team.-Purpose:James explains in his book, The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, why he believes runs created is an essential thing to measure:With regard to an offensive...
. A statistic intended to quantify a player's contribution to runs scored, as well as a team's expected number of runs scored. Runs created is calculated from other offensive statistics. James' first version of it: Runs Created = (Total BasesIn baseball statistics, total bases refers to the number of bases a player has gained with hits, i.e., the sum of his hits weighted by 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run....
* (HitsIn baseball statistics, a hit , also called a base hit, is credited to a batter when the batter safely reaches first base after hitting the ball into fair territory, without the benefit of an error or a fielder's choice....
+ Walks))/(Plate Appearances). Applied to an entire team or league, the statistic correlates closely to that team's or league's actual runs scored. Since James first created the statistic, sabermetricians have refined it to make it more accurate, and it is now used in many different variations.
- Range Factor
Range Factor is a baseball statistic developed by Bill James. It is calculated by dividing putouts and assists by number of innings or games played at a given defense position...
. A statistic that quantifies the defensive contribution of a player, calculated in its simplest form as RF = (AssistsIn baseball, an assist is a defensive statistic, baseball being one of the few sports in which the defensive team controls the ball. An assist is awarded to every defensive player who fields or touches the ball prior to the recording of a putout, even if the contact was unintentional...
+ Put OutsIn baseball statistics, a putout is given to a defensive player who records an out by one of the following methods:* Tagging a runner with the ball when they are not touching a base...
)/(Games Played). The statistic is premised on the notion that the total number of outs that a player participates in is more relevant in evaluating his defensive play than the percentage of cleanly handled chances as calculated by the conventional statistic Fielding PercentageIn baseball statistics, fielding percentage, also known as fielding average, is a measure that reflects the percentage of times a defensive player properly handles a batted or thrown ball...
.
- Defensive Efficiency Rating. A statistic that shows the percentage of balls in play a defense turns into an out. It is used to help determine a team's defensive ability. Calculated by: 1 - ((Opp. Hits + Reached on Error - Opp. Home runs) / (Plate appearances - Walks - Strikeouts - HitByPitch - Opp. Home runs)).
- Win Shares
Win Shares can refer to a book by Bill James or the statistic explained in the book.-Win Shares :Win Shares is a book about baseball written by Bill James, published by STATS, Inc. in 2002...
. A unifying statistic intended to allow the comparison of players at different positions, as well as players of different eras. Win Shares incorporates a variety of pitching, hitting and fielding statistics. One drawback of Win Shares is the difficulty of computing it.
- Pythagorean Winning Percentage
Pythagorean expectation is a formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to evaluate how lucky that team was...
. A statistic explaining the relationship of wins and losses to runs scored and runs allowed. In its simplest form: Winning Percentage equals Runs squared divided by the square of Runs plus the square of Runs Allowed. The statistic correlates closely to a team's actual winning percentage.
- Game Score
Game Score is a metric devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.To determine a starting pitcher's game score:# Start with 50 points....
is a metric to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.
- Major League Equivalency. A metric that uses minor league
Minor league baseball is a hierarchy of professional baseball leagues in North America that compete at levels below that of Major League Baseball. All of the minor leagues are operated as independent businesses, and many are members of Minor League Baseball, an umbrella organization for leagues...
statistics to predict how a player is likely to perform at the major league level.
- The Brock2 System. A system for projecting a player's performance over the remainder of his career based on past performance and the aging process.
- Similarity score
In Sabermetrics and APBRmetrics, similarity scores are a method of comparing baseball and basketball players to other players, with the intent of discovering who the single most similar historical player is to a certain player....
s. Scoring a player's statistical similarity to other players, providing a frame of reference for players of the distant past. Examples: Lou GehrigHenry Louis "Lou" Gehrig was an American baseball player in the 1920s and 1930s, chiefly remembered for his prowess as a hitter, his consecutive games-played record and its subsequent longevity, and the pathos of his farewell from baseball at age 36, when he was stricken with a fatal disease...
comparable to Don MattinglyDonald Arthur Mattingly is a former first baseman who played for the New York Yankees of the American League from 1982-1995. He also served as the Yankees hitting coach from 2004 to 2006 and Joe Torre's bench coach in 2007...
; Joe JacksonJoseph Jefferson Jackson , nicknamed "Shoeless Joe", was an American baseball player who played Major League Baseball in the early part of the 20th century...
to Tony OlivaTony Pedro Oliva is a former Major League Baseball right fielder who played his entire career in the American League for the Minnesota Twins from to . He batted left-handed and threw right-handed...
.
- Secondary Average
Secondary average, or SecA, is a baseball statistic - more precisely, a sabermetric measurement of hitting performance. It is a complement to batting average, which is a simple ratio of base hits to at bats. Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources to at bats...
. A statistic that attempts to measure a player's contribution to an offense in ways not reflected in batting average. The formula is (Extra bases on hits+Walks+Stolen Bases)/At bats. Secondary averages tend to be similar to batting averages, but can vary widely, from less than .100 to more than .500 in extreme cases. Extra bases on hits is calculated with the formula (Doubles)+(Triplesx2)+(Homerunsx3) or more easily, (Total Bases)-(Hits).
- Power/Speed Number. A statistic that attempts to consolidate the various "clubs" of players with impressive numbers of both home runs and stolen bases (e.g., the "30/30" club (Bobby Bonds was well known for being a member), the "40/40" club (José Canseco was the first to perform this feat), and even the "25/65" club (Joe Morgan in the '70s)). The formula: (2x(Home Runs)x(Stolen Bases))/(Home Runs + Stolen Bases).
- Approximate Value. A system of cutoffs designed to estimate the value a player contributed to various category groups (including his team) to study broad questions such as "how do players age over time".
Although James may be best known as an inventor of statistical tools, he has often written on the limitations of statistics and urged humility concerning their place amidst other kinds of information about baseball. To James, context is paramount: he was among the first to emphasize the importance of adjusting traditional statistics for
park factorsBatting Park Factor, also simply called Park Factor or BPF, is a baseball statistic that indicates the difference between runs scored in a team's home and road games. Most commonly used as a metric in the sabermetric community, it has found more general usage in recent years...
and to stress the role of luck in a pitcher's won-loss record. Many of his statistical innovations are arguably less important than the underlying ideas. When he introduced the notion of
secondary averageSecondary average, or SecA, is a baseball statistic - more precisely, a sabermetric measurement of hitting performance. It is a complement to batting average, which is a simple ratio of base hits to at bats. Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources to at bats...
, it was as a vehicle for the then-counterintuitive concept that
batting averageBatting average is a statistic in both cricket and baseball measuring the performance of cricket batsmen and baseball hitters, respectively. The two statistics are related, in that baseball averages are directly descended from the concept of cricket averages....
represents only a fraction of a player's offensive contribution. (The
runs-created statisticRuns created is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team.-Purpose:James explains in his book, The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, why he believes runs created is an essential thing to measure:With regard to an offensive...
plays a similar role vis-à-vis the traditional RBI.) Some of his contributions to the language of baseball, like the idea of the "
defensive spectrumIn Sabermetrics, the defensive spectrum is the graphical representation of the positions on a baseball field, arranged from top to bottom .-Arrangement:The defensive spectrum looks like this:#Designated hitter...
," border on being entirely non-statistical.
STATS, Inc.
In an essay published in the 1984
Abstract, James vented his frustration about
Major League BaseballMajor League Baseball is the highest level of play in North American professional baseball. Specifically, Major League Baseball refers to the organization that operates the National League and the American League, by means of a joint organizational structure that has developed gradually between...
's refusal to publish play-by-play accounts of every game. James proposed the creation of Project Scoresheet, a network of fans that would work together to collect and distribute this information.
While the resulting non-profit organization never functioned smoothly, it worked well enough to collect accounts of every game from 1984 through 1991. James' publisher agreed to distribute two annuals of essays and data - the 1987 and 1988 editions of
Bill James Presents The Great American Baseball StatbookBill James Presents The Great American Baseball Statbook is a book written by baseball stat guru Bill James from 1988....
(though only the first of these featured writing by James).
The organization was eventually disbanded, but many of its members went on to form for-profit companies with similar goals and structure.
STATS, Inc.STATS, Inc., currently known as STATS LLC, is a global sports statistics and information company – the company name originated as an acronym for "Sports Team Analysis and Tracking Systems". It was founded on April 30, 1981 by John Dewan, who became the company's CEO...
, the company James joined, provided data and analysis to every major media outlet before being acquired by Fox Sports in 2001.
Acceptance in mainstream baseball
For most of his career, James' ideas have either been ignored or rejected by professional baseball teams. James' sabermetrics rejects much of the
conventional wisdomConventional wisdom is a term used to describe ideas or explanations that are generally accepted as true by the public or by experts in a field...
that has been passed down by players, executives, and writers over decades. Most teams, managers, and players prefer to continue to follow maxims that were developed decades ago, as well as their gut instincts.
In recent years, James' ideas have gained official acceptance with some clubs.
Oakland AthleticsThe Oakland Athletics are a Major League Baseball team based in Oakland, California. The Athletics are a member of the Western Division of Major League Baseball's American League. From to the present, the Athletics have played in the Oakland Coliseum....
general manager
Billy BeaneWilliam Lamar "Billy" Beane is a former Major League Baseball player and the current general manager and minority owner of the Oakland Athletics.-Playing career:...
began applying sabermetric principles to running his low-budget team in the late 1990s, to notable effect (as chronicled in
Michael LewisMichael Lewis is an American contemporary non-fiction author and financial journalist. His bestselling books include Liar's Poker, The New New Thing, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game, and Home Game: An Accidental Guide to Fatherhood...
' book
Moneyball), and sabermetricians have penetrated other organizations since then.
In 2003, James was hired by a former reader, John Henry, the new owner of the
Boston Red SoxThe Boston Red Sox are a member of the Major League Baseball’s American League Eastern Division. Since , the Red Sox's home ballpark has been Fenway Park. The "Red Sox" name originates from the iconic uniform feature....
. The move generated some controversy, but after 25 years James had finally gained an official position within Major League Baseball. Current Red Sox GM
Theo EpsteinTheo Nathaniel Epstein is the Executive Vice President/General Manager of the Boston Red Sox. On November 25, 2002, the Red Sox made him the youngest GM in the history of Major League Baseball by hiring him at the age of 28. In 2004, he engineered the first World Series championship by the Red Sox...
also turned out to have a sabermetric bent. And unlike Oakland's built-in handicap of a money shortage, Boston was willing to spend, with history-making results.
One point of controversy was in handling the Red Sox' relief pitching. James had previously published several analyses of the use of the
closerIn baseball, a closing pitcher, more frequently referred to as a closer , is a relief pitcher who specializes in closing out games, i.e., getting the final outs in a close game...
in baseball, and had concluded that the traditional use of the closer both overrated the abilities of that individual, and used him in suboptimal circumstances. Reportedly, James influenced a reorganization of the Boston bullpen, with several moderately talented relievers and no clear closer. When Boston lost a number of games due to bullpen failures, they were forced to acquire a traditional closer (
Byung-Hyun KimByung-Hyun Kim a.k.a BK is a retired right-handed pitcher in Major League Baseball. He played for the Arizona Diamondbacks , Boston Red Sox , Colorado Rockies , and Florida Marlins .Usually described as a submarine pitcher, Kim is a side-arm and under-arm hard thrower who uses a great variety of...
) in order to address the issue. Many writers considered this to be a rejection of James' ideas, and the signing of ace reliever
Keith FoulkeKeith Charles Foulke is a former Major League Baseball relief pitcher who currently plays for the Newark Bears organization.-Career:...
following the season further suggests this. Others, however, argue that the Boston pen was simply not very talented and that the outcome doesn't necessarily undermine James' arguments.
It should be noted that Boston did not implement James' idea of the "relief ace". James did not suggest a "bullpen by committee"; rather, his studies showed that the relief ace should be used in close or tie games as early as the 7th inning, when the outcome of a ballgame is often decided. Boston had no relief ace in 2003. During the 2004 regular season Foulke was used primarily as a closer in the
Tony La RussaAnthony "Tony" La Russa, Jr. is a manager in Major League Baseball, currently with the St. Louis Cardinals...
model; however, Foulke's usage in the 2004 postseason was along the lines of a relief ace with multiple inning appearances at pivotal times of the game.
Houston AstrosThe Houston Astros is a major league baseball team located in Houston, Texas. The Astros are a member of the Central Division. From 2000 to the present, the Astros have played their home games at Minute Maid Park . The Astros joined MLB under the name Colt .45s along with the New York Mets in...
manager
Phil GarnerPhilip Mason Garner is a former infielder in Major League Baseball for the Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants from 1973 to 1988. He was manager of the Astros from July 14 to August 27 , leading Houston to a World Series appearance...
also employed a relief ace model, perhaps unwittingly, with his use of
Brad LidgeBradley Thomas Lidge is a closer for the Philadelphia Phillies of Major League Baseball. Nicknamed "Lights Out", he is the all-time leader in strikeouts per nine innings among pitchers with at least 200 appearances in their career...
in the 2004 postseason, further demonstrating the efficacy of James's relief ace concept.
James is still (2007) employed by the Red Sox, having published several new sabermetric books during his tenure (see
Bibliography, below). Indeed, although James is typically tight-lipped about his activities on behalf of the Red Sox, he is credited with advocating some of the moves that led to the team's first
World SeriesThe World Series has been the annual championship series of the highest level of professional baseball in the United States and Canada since 1903, concluding the postseason of Major League Baseball...
championship in 86 years, including the signing of non-tendered free agent
David OrtizDavid Ortiz is a Dominican Major League Baseball designated hitter who has played for the Boston Red Sox since . Previously, Ortiz played for the Minnesota Twins . Nicknamed "Big Papi," Ortiz is a five-time All-Star and holds the Red Sox single-season record for home runs with 54, set during the ...
, the trade for
Mark BellhornMark Christian Bellhorn is a Major League Baseball second baseman for the Colorado Rockies organization. He has played in the majors for the Oakland Athletics , Chicago Cubs , Colorado Rockies , Boston Red Sox , New York Yankees , San Diego Padres , and Cincinnati Reds...
, and the team's increased emphasis on on-base percentage. During his time with the Red Sox, Bill James has received two World Series rings for the team's 2004 and 2007 victories.
The Mind of Bill James, a biography-cum-chronicle of James' works was published in the spring of 2006.
How Bill James Changed Our View of the Game of Baseball was published in February 2007. He was profiled on
60 Minutes60 Minutes is an American investigative television newsmagazine, which has run on CBS since 1968. The program was created by long time producer Don Hewitt who set it apart by using a unique style of reporter-centered investigation. It has been among the top-rated TV programs for much of its life,...
on March 30, 2008, in his role as a sabermetric pioneer and Red Sox advisor.
Dowd Report controversy
James was a strong critic of the
Dowd ReportThe Dowd Report is the document describing the transgressions of baseball player Pete Rose in betting on baseball, which precipitated his agreement to a lifetime suspension from the sport in the United States. The 225-page report was prepared by Special Counsel to the Commissioner, John M. Dowd,...
, which was the most thorough investigation (commissioned by baseball commissioner Bart Giamatti) on the gambling activities of
Pete RosePeter Edward Rose is a former Major League Baseball player and manager. Rose played from to , and is best known for his 19 years with the Cincinnati Reds....
. James, in his
Baseball Book 1990, dismissed Dowd's conclusion that the former
Cincinnati RedsThe Cincinnati Reds are a Major League Baseball team based in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA. They are members of the Central Division of the National League....
manager bet on baseball games, for lack of evidence. James reproached commissioner Giamatti and his successor, Fay Vincent, for their acceptance of the Dowd Report as the final word on Rose's gambling.
In 2004, Rose admitted he had bet on baseball and confirmed the Dowd Report was correct. James' argument was that the evidence available to Dowd at the time was insufficient to reach the coincidentally correct conclusion.
Other activities
James is an avid fan of the University of Kansas men's basketball team and has sometimes written about basketball. He has created a formula for what he calls a "safe lead" in the sport. He is currently working on a true crime book.
See also
- Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Prospectus is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well player and team performance projections on the site...
- Defensive spectrum
In Sabermetrics, the defensive spectrum is the graphical representation of the positions on a baseball field, arranged from top to bottom .-Arrangement:The defensive spectrum looks like this:#Designated hitter...
- Win Shares
Win Shares can refer to a book by Bill James or the statistic explained in the book.-Win Shares :Win Shares is a book about baseball written by Bill James, published by STATS, Inc. in 2002...
- Similarity Scores
- Keltner list
The Keltner list is a systematic but non-numerical method for determining whether a baseball player is deserving of election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. It makes use of an inventory of questions regarding the merit of players relative to their peers...
- Rain Delay (essay)
Rain Delay is an essay by Bill James included in his 1988 Baseball Abstract. In the essay, two baseball fans discuss the best players in baseball during a Rain Delay. The fans go position by position and first determine the best player at each position, and then figure out where that player...
External links