Berlin procedure - AbsoluteAstronomy.com

The so-called Berlin procedure (BV) is a mathematical procedure for time series

Time series

In statistics, signal processing, econometrics and mathematical finance, a time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times spaced at uniform time intervals. Examples of time series are the daily closing value of the Dow Jones index or the annual flow volume of the...

decomposition and seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is a statistical method for removing the seasonal component of a time series that is used when analyzing non-seasonal trends. It is normal to report un-adjusted data for current unemployment rates, as these reflect the actual current situation...

of monthly and quarterly economic time series. The mathematical foundations of the procedure were developed in 1960's at the Technical University of Berlin

Technical University of Berlin

The Technische Universität Berlin is a research university located in Berlin, Germany. Translating the name into English is discouraged by the university, however paraphrasing as Berlin Institute of Technology is recommended by the university if necessary .The TU Berlin was founded...

and the German Institute for Economic Research

German Institute for Economic Research

The German Institute for Economic Research, German Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung is one of the leading economic research institutes in Germany. It is an independent, non-profit academic institution which is involved in basic research and policy advice...

(DIW). The most important user of the procedure is the Federal Statistical Office of Germany

Federal Statistical Office of Germany

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany is a federal authority of Germany. It is a part of the Federal Ministry of the Interior of the Federal Republic of Germany....

.

The latest version of the Berlin procedure, BV4.1

BV4.1 (software)

The application software BV4.1 is a user-friendly tool for decomposing and seasonally adjusting monthly or quarterly economic time series by the so-called Berlin procedure. It is being developed by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany...

, is available as freeware

Freeware

Freeware is computer software that is available for use at no cost or for an optional fee, but usually with one or more restricted usage rights. Freeware is in contrast to commercial software, which is typically sold for profit, but might be distributed for a business or commercial purpose in the...

for non-commercial purposes.

Specific features of the procedure

The Berlin procedure procedure is distinguished from other commonly used decomposition and seasonal adjustment methods (i.e. X-12-ARIMA

X-12-ARIMA

X-12-ARIMA is the U.S. Census Bureau's software package for seasonal adjustment. It can be used together with gretl, which provides a graphical user interface for X-12-ARIMA.X-12-ARIMA is the successor to X-11-ARIMA-See also:*AnSWR*ARIMA*CSPro...

) by the following characteristic features:

The procedure works well even with time series showing strongly changing seasonal patterns.
Trend-cycles are depicted plausibly in terms of economic points of view.
The cost-benefit ratio is low as the user does not need special training or even expert knowledge or long-term experience with the procedure to make high-quality analyses.
On principle the analysis results do not depend on the respective user since there is no need to determine any series-specific parameters of the procedure.
As linear regression models
Linear regression
In statistics, linear regression is an approach to modeling the relationship between a scalar variable y and one or more explanatory variables denoted X. The case of one explanatory variable is called simple regression...

are used, on principle there are no differences between indirect and direct analysis results of aggregate series.

External links

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