Opinion polling for the Peruvian national election, 2006
Encyclopedia
Opinion polling for the 2006 Peruvian national election
was carried out by pollsters authorized by the National Election Jury http://www.jne.gob.pe/images/stories/archivos/elec/reg-enc.pdf both in the races for the Presidency and Congress
.
Several candidates expressed skepticism about poll results and even accused the pollsters of deliberately lying.http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024621.php The Peruvian Association of Market Research (Asociación Peruana de Investigación de Mercados, APEIM) rejected such criticism and demanded formal apologies by those who accused the companies.http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025800.php APEIM also criticized the pollster IDICE, not belonging to the association, for critical flaws in its methodology.http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024477.php The company's results are nevertheless included in the section below.
Also, it is illegal to publish electoral opinion polls in Peru during the week prior to an election. Pollsters, however, released their results to the foreign press during the week before the First Round and these were widely available on the Internet. This drew criticism from electoral authorities, even though no law was technically broken.http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025766.php
The dates indicate when each survey was conducted. If the sources are not clear about the precise dates, either the month or the date of publication is indicated. In the latter case, the date is marked with a (p).
Unless stated otherwise, entries correspond to percentages over the total number of votes. When reported in terms of "valid" votes, the percentages are included in parentheses. Valid votes are those cast for exactly one presidential ticket or one congressional party list, thus excluding blank, multiple-party votes and undecided voters. The official results consider only valid votes.
Entries with "n/a" correspond to instances in which the relevant question was not asked, the option was not given, or the quantity was not deemed significant enough when the survey was published.
The abbreviations used for parties are as follows (coalition members are indented):
The abbreviations used for pollsters are:
In particular, while the Sí Cumple party did not officially belong to Alliance for the Future, pollsters themselves often lumped it together with the other fujimorista
movements before the AF coalition came into being, largely due to the perception that the same politicians belonged to these parties. This is not technically correct, but Sí Cumple results are still included below, though with an asterisk to make the difference clear (SC*).
Projected seat allocation in Congress, out of 120 seats, are included in square brackets when available.
Peruvian national election, 2006
The first round of the 2006 Peruvian national election was held on April 9, 2006 to elect the President of the Republic, two Vice-Presidents, 120 Members of Congress, and five Peruvian members of the Andean Parliament , for the 2006-2011 period.No single presidential ticket obtained more than half...
was carried out by pollsters authorized by the National Election Jury http://www.jne.gob.pe/images/stories/archivos/elec/reg-enc.pdf both in the races for the Presidency and Congress
Congress of Peru
The Congress of the Republic of Peru or the National Congress of Peru is the unicameral body that assumes legislative power in Peru.Congress consists of 130 members of congress , who are elected for five year periods in office on a proportional representation basis...
.
Several candidates expressed skepticism about poll results and even accused the pollsters of deliberately lying.http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024621.php The Peruvian Association of Market Research (Asociación Peruana de Investigación de Mercados, APEIM) rejected such criticism and demanded formal apologies by those who accused the companies.http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025800.php APEIM also criticized the pollster IDICE, not belonging to the association, for critical flaws in its methodology.http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024477.php The company's results are nevertheless included in the section below.
Also, it is illegal to publish electoral opinion polls in Peru during the week prior to an election. Pollsters, however, released their results to the foreign press during the week before the First Round and these were widely available on the Internet. This drew criticism from electoral authorities, even though no law was technically broken.http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025766.php
Poll results
The following is a collection of polls relating to the 2006 Peruvian national election. Only polls conducted nationwide are included, though some have an urban bias. The results below only consider the eventual top five presidential candidates, top six congressional lists and, in the case of the hypothetical runoff, matchups between the top three presidential candidates. Little information is available on the other options.The dates indicate when each survey was conducted. If the sources are not clear about the precise dates, either the month or the date of publication is indicated. In the latter case, the date is marked with a (p).
Unless stated otherwise, entries correspond to percentages over the total number of votes. When reported in terms of "valid" votes, the percentages are included in parentheses. Valid votes are those cast for exactly one presidential ticket or one congressional party list, thus excluding blank, multiple-party votes and undecided voters. The official results consider only valid votes.
Entries with "n/a" correspond to instances in which the relevant question was not asked, the option was not given, or the quantity was not deemed significant enough when the survey was published.
The abbreviations used for parties are as follows (coalition members are indented):
|
Center Front The Center Front was a Peruvian political coalition formed by the parties Acción Popular , Somos Perú and Coordinadora Nacional de Independientes for the 2006 national election... (Frente de Centro) We Are Peru Democratic Party We Are Peru is a political party in Peru.At the last legislative elections, held on 8 April 2001, the party won 5.8% of the popular vote and 4 out of 120 seats in the unicameral Congress of the Republic. The party did not take part in the 2006 elections.-External links:*... (Somos Perú) Peru Possible Possible Peru is a Peruvian political party. It was founded in 1994 by Alejandro Toledo with the original name of País Posible .... (Perú Posible) Sí Cumple Sí Cumple is a political party of Peru founded by Alberto Fujimori as Vamos Vecino in 1998 in order for the party to participate in that year's municipal elections. In 2005 it assumed its current name.... |
The abbreviations used for pollsters are:
|
Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú Pontifical Catholic University of Peru Pontifical Catholic University of Peru is a private university in Lima, Peru. It was founded in 1917 by F. Jorge Dintilhac SS.CC. as Peru's first non-profit private institution of higher learning. Academically, PUCP ranks second in Peru, behind the National University of San Marcos.-History:The... University of Lima The University of Lima is a private university in Lima, the capital of Peru. It was founded in 1962. The decision to create the University of Lima was made in the early 1960s by a group of university professors, along with important commerce and industry representatives. It started with only 120... Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería National University of Engineering The National University of Engineering is a public engineering and science university located in the Rímac District of Lima, Peru.-History:... |
Presidential Election
The deadline for the registration of presidential candidates was 9 January 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative in nature, since the final set of options was not yet known before then.First Round
| Dates | Pollster | Source | O. Humala Ollanta Humala Ollanta Moisés Humala Tasso is a Peruvian politician and the President of Peru. Humala, who previously served as an army officer, lost the presidential election in 2006 but won the 2011 presidential election in a run-off vote... (UPP Union for Peru Union for Peru is a Peruvian political party. UPP was founded by Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, ex UN Secretary General, in 1994. UPP was originally a liberal or centrist political party.... ) |
A. García (PAP American Popular Revolutionary Alliance The Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana is a centre-left Peruvian political party.At the legislative elections held on 9 April 2006, the party won 22.6% of the popular vote and 36 out of 120 seats in the Congress of the Republic... ) |
L. Flores Lourdes Flores Lourdes Celmira Rosario Flores Nano is a Peruvian politician and lawyer. She currently leads the Unidad Nacional ' alliance and the Partido Popular Cristiano ' in Peru, which is the most well-known right-of-center party of the country.-Biography:Lourdes Flores was born in Lima on 7 October 1959... (UN National Unity (Peru) National Unity was a Peruvian center-right, mainly Christian democratic electoral alliance.National Unity was founded in 2000 by Lourdes Flores Nano and was considered Peru's third largest party. The party participated in the 2001 presidential election, on 8 April 2001, when its candidate,... ) |
M. Chávez Martha Chávez Martha Gladys Chávez Cossío de Ocampo is a Peruvian politician and lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for president in the 2006 presidential elections on the Alliance for the Future ticket.-Education and professional career:... (AF Alliance for the Future (Peru) Alliance for the Future was a Peruvian political alliance formed by pro-Fujimori parties Change 90 and New Majority for the 2006 national election... ) |
V. Paniagua Valentín Paniagua Valentín Paniagua Corazao was a Peruvian politician and former Interim President of Peru. Paniagua was elected by the Peruvian Congress to serve as interim president of the country after Alberto Fujimori was ousted from office by Congress in November 2000.As Interim President, his main task was to... (FC Center Front The Center Front was a Peruvian political coalition formed by the parties Acción Popular , Somos Perú and Coordinadora Nacional de Independientes for the 2006 national election... ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020649.php | 3 % | 18 % | 17 % | n/a | 24 % |
| 1-8 Apr 2005 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020622.php | 2.8 % | 17.5 % | 16.0 % | 7.2 % | 14.7 % |
| Apr 2005 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/019675.php | 5 % | 21 % | 17 % | n/a | 23 % |
| May 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020649.php | 3 % | 19 % | 23 % | n/a | 29 % |
| June 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020649.php | 5 % | 20 % | 19 % | n/a | 16 % |
| 6-12 July 2005 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020622.php | 2.3 % | 15.5 % | 17.5 % | 9.6 % | 12.8 % |
| Aug 2005 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/019675.php | 7 % | 18 % | 22 % | n/a | 18 % |
| Aug 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020649.php | 5 % | 20 % | 26 % | n/a | 19 % |
| Sep 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020649.php | 5 % | 18 % | 23 % | n/a | 13 % |
| 10-14 Oct 2005 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/019675.php | 8 % | 17 % | 27 % | n/a | 15 % |
| 13-23 Oct 2005 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/019522.php | 9.1 % | 23.6 % | 26.5 % | n/a | 7.6 % |
| 22-28 Oct 2005 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020622.php | 5.1 % | 12.0 % | 27.6 % | 9.5 % | 10.0 % |
| 10-11 Nov 2005 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020387.php | 11 % | 17 % | 28 % | n/a | 17 % |
| 12-15 Nov 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020649.php | 13 % | 16 % | 30 % | n/a | 15 % |
| 19-23 Nov 2005 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020878.php | 15.0 % | 13.4 % | 25.6 % | 1.5 % | 11.3 % |
| 3-4 Dec 2005 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021143.php | 14.6 % | 16.2 % | 25.6 % | 2.4 % | 8.3 % |
| 3-8 Dec 2005 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021179.php | 22 % | 16 % | 25 % | n/a | 14 % |
| 16-19 Nov 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021482.php | 23 % | 15 % | 26 % | 1 % | 12 % |
| 19-23 Dec 2005 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021469.php | 21.7 % | 19.8 % | 21.2 % | n/a | 16.7 % |
| 9-12 Jan 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022014.php | 26.3 % | 20.3 % | 20.7 % | 7.0 % | 11.2 % |
| 11-13 Jan 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022022.php | 28 % | 15 % | 25 % | 2 % | 10 % |
| 13-14 Jan 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022223.php | 25 % | 14 % | 26 % | n/a | 11 % |
| 16-19 Jan 2006 | POP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022329.php | 25 % | 14 % | 30 % | 2 % | 11 % |
| 20-22 Jan 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022481.php | 16.8 % | 11.9 % | 28.1 % | 2.5 % | 7.2 % |
| 21-23 Jan 2006 | AyC | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022540.php | 19.5 % | 14.6 % | 30.9 % | 1.8 % | 14.2 % |
| 21-24 Jan 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022423.php | 18.2 % | 13.1 % | 28.8 % | n/a | 6.3 % |
| 25-27 Jan 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022540.php | 22 % | 13 % | 30 % | n/a | 8 % |
| 21-28 Jan 2006 | IMA | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022723.php | 18.7 % | 14.7 % | 27.2 % | 4.2 % | 5.5 % |
| 3-5 Feb 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022773.php | 18.4 % | 20.8 % | 27.2 % | 8.1 % | 6.1 % |
| 8-10 Feb 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022924.php | 20 % (25 %) | 13 % (17 %) | 27 % (35 %) | 4 % (6 %) | 7 % (8 %) |
| 10-11 Feb 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022989.php | 24 % (28 %) | 15 % (18 %) | 29 % (34 %) | 4 % (5 %) | 8 % (10 %) |
| 11-15 Feb 2006 | UAP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023234.php | 21.4 % | 16.8 % | 23.3 % | 3.5 % | 6.0 % |
| 15-17 Feb 2006 | Conecta | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023128.php | 18.3 % (18.3 %) | 16.0 % (20.5 %) | 27.3 % (34.8 %) | 3.5 % (4.4 %) | 8.6 % (11.0 %) |
| 16-18 Feb 2006 | AyC | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023374.php | 19.4 % | 16.3 % | 29.2 % | 3.8 % | 4.9 % |
| 22-24 Feb 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023513.php | 19 % (26 %) | 16 % (22 %) | 24 % (33 %) | 3 % (4 %) | 5 % (7 %) |
| 24-26 Feb 2006 | PUCP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023580.php | 20 % (25 %) | 14 % (18 %) | 29 % (35 %) | 4 % (5 %) | 6 % (8 %) |
| 24-26 Feb 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023654.php | 20.6 % (27.6 %) | 15.3 % (20.5 %) | 25.1 % (33.6 %) | 3.6 % (4.8 %) | 6.4 % (8.5 %) |
| 24-26 Feb 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023586.php | 19.3 % | 22.4 % | 24.3 % | 7.1 % | 5.6 % |
| 26 Feb 2006 (p) | POP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023423.php | 22 % | 16 % | 30 % | 4 % | n/a |
| 23-27 Feb 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023570.php | (25.5 %) | (21.5 %) | (34.1 %) | (4.9 %) | (7.8 %) |
| 24 Feb-2 Mar 2006 | IMA | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023869.php | 21.6 % | 20.1 % | 26.9 % | 2.8 % | 4.5 % |
| 8-10 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023958.php | 22 % (30 %) | 16 % (22 %) | 23 % (31 %) | 4 % (5 %) | 4 % (5 %) |
| 10-12 Mar 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024123.php | 26 % | 19 % | 27 % | 4 % | 8 % |
| 11-13 Mar 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024091.php | 23.3 % | 22.8 % | 23.6 % | 5.0 % | 6.1 % |
| 15-17 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024206.php | 27 % (32 %) | 17 % (21 %) | 23 % (28 %) | 6 % (6 %) | 6 % (7 %) |
| 15-19 Mar 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024293.php | (31.6 %) | (21.6 %) | (21.9 %) | (5.5 %) | (6.0 %) |
| 18-19 Mar 2006 | UNI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024419.php | 28.8 % | 16.3 % | 24.8 % | 3.8 % | 5.3 % |
| 19 Mar 2006 | UAP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024522.php | 28.9 % | 16.9 % | 23.1 % | 5.5 % | 5.9 % |
| 20-22 Mar 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024478.php | 26.8 % | 24.4 % | 21.6 % | 5.7 % | 4.7 % |
| 22-24 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024527.php | 27 % (33 %) | 18 % (22 %) | 22 % (27 %) | 6 % (7 %) | 5 % (6 %) |
| 23-25 Mar 2006 | Conecta | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024619.php | 30.4 % (30.4 %) | 18.3 % (20.6 %) | 24.5 % (27.7 %) | 5.1 % (5.7 %) | 4.4 % (5.0 %) |
| 24-26 Mar 2006 | PUCP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024742.php | 27 % (31 %) | 18 % (20 %) | 24 % (27 %) | 6 % (7 %) | 6 % (7 %) |
| 24-26 Mar 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024773.php | 28.2 % (32.6 %) | 19.9 % (22.7 %) | 22.9 % (26.1 %) | 5.4 % (6.3 %) | 4.9 % (5.6 %) |
| 27 Mar 2006 (p) | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024574.php | 31 % | 21 % | 26 % | 6 % | 5 % |
| 27-31 Mar 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024784.php | (31.5 %) | (23.1 %) | (26.8 %) | (5.9 %) | (6.7 %) |
| 27-31 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024771.php | 26 % (31 %) | 19 % (23 %) | 22 % (26 %) | 6 % (7 %) | 5 % (6 %) |
| 4-6 Apr 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025076.php | 27.7 % (31.8 %) | 22.6 % (25.9 %) | 19.6 % (22.5 %) | 3.9 % (4.5 %) | 7.5 % (8.6 %) |
| 5 Apr 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025076.php | (26 %) | (24 %) | (24 %) | (8 %) | (7 %) |
| 5 Apr 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025076.php | 26.2 % (29.2 %) | 19.7 % (21.9 %) | 23.0 % (25.6 %) | 7.4 % (8.3 %) | 6.4 % (7.2 %) |
| 8 Apr 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025076.php | 24 % (27 %) | 21 % (23 %) | 21 % (23 %) | 7 % (7 %) | 7 % (8 %) |
Hypothetical Runoff Election (polls before First Round)
| Dates | Pollster | Source | O. Humala Ollanta Humala Ollanta Moisés Humala Tasso is a Peruvian politician and the President of Peru. Humala, who previously served as an army officer, lost the presidential election in 2006 but won the 2011 presidential election in a run-off vote... (UPP Union for Peru Union for Peru is a Peruvian political party. UPP was founded by Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, ex UN Secretary General, in 1994. UPP was originally a liberal or centrist political party.... ) vs A. García (PAP American Popular Revolutionary Alliance The Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana is a centre-left Peruvian political party.At the legislative elections held on 9 April 2006, the party won 22.6% of the popular vote and 36 out of 120 seats in the Congress of the Republic... ) |
O. Humala Ollanta Humala Ollanta Moisés Humala Tasso is a Peruvian politician and the President of Peru. Humala, who previously served as an army officer, lost the presidential election in 2006 but won the 2011 presidential election in a run-off vote... (UPP Union for Peru Union for Peru is a Peruvian political party. UPP was founded by Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, ex UN Secretary General, in 1994. UPP was originally a liberal or centrist political party.... ) vs L. Flores Lourdes Flores Lourdes Celmira Rosario Flores Nano is a Peruvian politician and lawyer. She currently leads the Unidad Nacional ' alliance and the Partido Popular Cristiano ' in Peru, which is the most well-known right-of-center party of the country.-Biography:Lourdes Flores was born in Lima on 7 October 1959... (UN National Unity (Peru) National Unity was a Peruvian center-right, mainly Christian democratic electoral alliance.National Unity was founded in 2000 by Lourdes Flores Nano and was considered Peru's third largest party. The party participated in the 2001 presidential election, on 8 April 2001, when its candidate,... ) |
A. García (PAP American Popular Revolutionary Alliance The Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana is a centre-left Peruvian political party.At the legislative elections held on 9 April 2006, the party won 22.6% of the popular vote and 36 out of 120 seats in the Congress of the Republic... ) vs L. Flores Lourdes Flores Lourdes Celmira Rosario Flores Nano is a Peruvian politician and lawyer. She currently leads the Unidad Nacional ' alliance and the Partido Popular Cristiano ' in Peru, which is the most well-known right-of-center party of the country.-Biography:Lourdes Flores was born in Lima on 7 October 1959... (UN National Unity (Peru) National Unity was a Peruvian center-right, mainly Christian democratic electoral alliance.National Unity was founded in 2000 by Lourdes Flores Nano and was considered Peru's third largest party. The party participated in the 2001 presidential election, on 8 April 2001, when its candidate,... ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-23 Oct 2005 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/019522.php | n/a | n/a | 35.4 % - 42.1 % |
| 22-28 Oct 2005 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020622.php | n/a | n/a | 23.6 % - 51.5 % |
| 10-11 Nov 2005 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020387.php | 30 % - 31 % | 23 % - 58 % | 23 % - 56 % |
| 12-15 Nov 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020649.php | n/a | 23 % - 58 % | 23 % - 54 % |
| 3-4 Dec 2005 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021143.php | 33.0 % - 34.5 % | 27.1 % - 60.4 % | 25.9 % - 59.6 % |
| 3-8 Dec 2005 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021179.php | 44 % - 31 % | 35 % - 50 % | 26 % - 54 % |
| 16-19 Dec 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021482.php | n/a | 34 % - 50 % | 24 % - 53 % |
| 11-13 Jan 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022022.php | 44 % - 29 % | 39 % - 46 % | 23 % - 56 % |
| 13-14 Jan 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022223.php | 41 % - 28 % | 35 % - 50 % | 25 % - 52 % |
| 20-22 Jan 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022481.php | 34.2 % – 32.9 % | 27.7 % - 51.1 % | 22.6 % - 60.0 % |
| 25-27 Jan 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022540.php | 40 % - 30 % | 34 % - 52 % | 22 % - 57 % |
| 21-28 Jan 2006 | IMA | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022723.php | 31.5 % - 29.2 % | 27.5 % - 46.0 % | 22.9 % - 44.6 % |
| 8-10 Feb 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022924.php | 37 % - 35 % (51 % - 49 %) |
33 % - 52 % (39 % - 61 %) |
27 % - 54 % (33 % - 67 %) |
| 10-11 Feb 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022989.php | n/a | 34 % - 50 % | 25 % - 54 % |
| 11-15 Feb 2006 | UAP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023234.php | 34.9 % - 28.3 % | 32.6 % - 42.8 % | 24.8 % - 44.6 % |
| 15-17 Feb 2006 | Conecta | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023128.php | 32 % - 29 % | 31 % - 48 % | 26 % - 45 % |
| 22-24 Feb 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023513.php | 36 % – 37 % (50 % - 50 %) |
34 % - 50 % (40 % - 60 %) |
31 % - 50 % (38 % - 62 %) |
| 23-27 Feb 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023570.php | 34.8 % - 37.5 % (48.1 % - 51.9 %) |
31.1 % - 48.6 % (39.0 % - 61.0 %) |
29.0 % - 47.9 % (37.7 % - 62.3 %) |
| 24-26 Feb 2006 | PUCP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023580.php | 33.7 % – 33.5 % | 30.2 % - 50.5 % | 26.8 % - 51.1 % |
| 24-26 Feb 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023654.php | 36.7 % – 32.3 % | 33.3 % - 49.6 % | 27.1 % - 52.2 % |
| 24 Feb-2 Mar 2006 | IMA | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023869.php | 32.3 % - 33.8 % | 28.8 % - 43.1 % | 28.4 % - 40.9 % |
| 8-10 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023958.php | 41 % - 36 % (52 % - 47 %) |
39 % - 46 % (46 % - 54 %) |
32 % - 47 % (41 % - 59 %) |
| 10-12 Mar 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024123.php | 40 % - 33 % | 36 % - 47 % | 29 % - 48 % |
| 15-17 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024206.php | 45 % - 33 % (57 % - 43 %) |
43 % - 44 % (50 % - 50 %) |
33 % - 46 % (41 % - 59 %) |
| 15-19 Mar 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024293.php | 38.5 % – 32.0 % (54.3 % - 45.7 %) |
36.6 % - 41.5 % (47.1 % - 52.9 %) |
29.0 % - 43.2 % (40.5 % - 59.5 %) |
| 18-19 Mar 2006 | UNI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024419.php | 39.1 % - 29.6 % | 37.5 % - 40.4 % | 28.3 % - 42.9 % |
| 19 Mar 2006 | UAP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024522.php | 39.5 % - 29.5 % | 38.8 % - 38.8 % | 28.2 % - 41.2 % |
| 22-24 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024527.php | 42 % - 39 % (52 % - 48 %) |
40 % - 47 % (47 % - 53 %) |
35 % - 46 % (43 % - 57 %) |
| 23-25 Mar 2006 | Conecta | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024619.php | 41 % - 33 % | 39 % - 41 % | 31 % - 41 % |
| 24-26 Mar 2006 | PUCP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024742.php | (53 % - 47 %) | (45 % - 55 %) | (41 % - 59 %) |
| 24-26 Mar 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024773.php | 43.9 % - 36.7 % | 41.3 % - 46.6 % | 31.5 % - 48.0 % |
| 27-31 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024771.php | 39 % - 37 % (51 % - 49 %) |
38 % - 46 % (45 % - 55 %) |
32 % - 45 % (42 % - 58 %) |
| 27-31 Mar 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024784.php | (49.7 - 50.3 %) | (44.9 % - 55.1 %) | (41.5 % - 58.5 %) |
| 5 Apr 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025076.php | 37.7 % - 41.3 % | 37.3 % - 48.6 % | n/a |
Runoff Election (polls after First Round)
| Dates | Pollster | Source | Ollanta Humala Ollanta Humala Ollanta Moisés Humala Tasso is a Peruvian politician and the President of Peru. Humala, who previously served as an army officer, lost the presidential election in 2006 but won the 2011 presidential election in a run-off vote... (UPP Union for Peru Union for Peru is a Peruvian political party. UPP was founded by Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, ex UN Secretary General, in 1994. UPP was originally a liberal or centrist political party.... ) |
Alan García (PAP American Popular Revolutionary Alliance The Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana is a centre-left Peruvian political party.At the legislative elections held on 9 April 2006, the party won 22.6% of the popular vote and 36 out of 120 seats in the Congress of the Republic... ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-21 Apr 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026020.php | 37 % (46 %) | 43 % (54 %) |
| 29 Apr-1 May 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026308.php | 34 % (44 %) | 43 % (56 %) |
| 28 Apr-3 May 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027244.php | 34.8 % (45.9 %) | 42.5 % (55.0 %) |
| 19-21 Apr 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026381.php | 34 % (43 %) | 44 % (57 %) |
| 2-7 May 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026420.php | (38.6 %) | (61.4 %) |
| 6-8 May 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026559.php | 33 % (43 %) | 44 % (57 %) |
| 10-12 May 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026700.php | 34 % (44 %) | 43 % (56 %) |
| 12-14 May 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026858.php | 31.1 % (38.1 %) | 50.6 % (61.9 %) |
| 18-19 May 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/026970.php | 35 % (42 %) | 47 % (58 %) |
| 18-21 May 2006 | PUCP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027147.php | 35 % (46 %) | 42 % (54 %) |
| 19-21 May 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027168.php | 31.3 % (38.8 %) | 49.3 % (61.2 %) |
| 24-25 May 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027243.php | (40.1 %) | (59.9 %) |
| 23-26 May 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027244.php | 36.8 % (36.8 %) | 48.2 % (56.7 %) |
| 24-26 May 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027236.php | 36 % (45 %) | 44 % (55 %) |
| 25-26 May 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027243.php | (42 %) | (58 %) |
| 27 May 2006 (p) | Conecta | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027216.php | 34.7 % (43.1 %) | 45.8 % (56.9 %) |
| 30-31 May 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027537.php | (47 %) | (53 %) |
| 31 May 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027537.php | (43 %) | (57 %) |
| 31 May 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027537.php | (44.1 %) | (55.9 %) |
| 31 May-1 June 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027537.php | (46.2 %) | (53.8 %) |
| 3 June 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/027537.php | (47 %) | (53 %) |
Congressional Election
The deadline for the registration of congressional candidates was 8 February 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative. For many of these early polls, several coalitions were not even official, so some responses included parties which did not end up running by themselves. These are included in some entries below, along with the appropriate abbreviation as outlined above.In particular, while the Sí Cumple party did not officially belong to Alliance for the Future, pollsters themselves often lumped it together with the other fujimorista
Alberto Fujimori
Alberto Fujimori Fujimori served as President of Peru from 28 July 1990 to 17 November 2000. A controversial figure, Fujimori has been credited with the creation of Fujimorism, uprooting terrorism in Peru and restoring its macroeconomic stability, though his methods have drawn charges of...
movements before the AF coalition came into being, largely due to the perception that the same politicians belonged to these parties. This is not technically correct, but Sí Cumple results are still included below, though with an asterisk to make the difference clear (SC*).
Projected seat allocation in Congress, out of 120 seats, are included in square brackets when available.
| Dates | Pollster | Source | UPP Union for Peru Union for Peru is a Peruvian political party. UPP was founded by Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, ex UN Secretary General, in 1994. UPP was originally a liberal or centrist political party.... |
PAP American Popular Revolutionary Alliance The Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana is a centre-left Peruvian political party.At the legislative elections held on 9 April 2006, the party won 22.6% of the popular vote and 36 out of 120 seats in the Congress of the Republic... |
UN National Unity (Peru) National Unity was a Peruvian center-right, mainly Christian democratic electoral alliance.National Unity was founded in 2000 by Lourdes Flores Nano and was considered Peru's third largest party. The party participated in the 2001 presidential election, on 8 April 2001, when its candidate,... |
AF Alliance for the Future (Peru) Alliance for the Future was a Peruvian political alliance formed by pro-Fujimori parties Change 90 and New Majority for the 2006 national election... |
FC Center Front The Center Front was a Peruvian political coalition formed by the parties Acción Popular , Somos Perú and Coordinadora Nacional de Independientes for the 2006 national election... |
PP Peru Possible Possible Peru is a Peruvian political party. It was founded in 1994 by Alejandro Toledo with the original name of País Posible .... |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-23 Oct 2005 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/019522.php | 10.7 % PNP | 17.7 % | 13.1 % | 11.1 % SC* | 7.9 % AP 5.3 % SP |
2.2 % |
| 22-28 Oct 2005 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020622.php | 3.4 % PNP | 13.8 % | 14.3 % 10.4 % SN |
8.6 % SC* | 10.2 % AP 3.1 % SP |
1.3 % |
| 10-11 Nov 2005 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020387.php | 8 % | 17 % | 15 % | 12 % C90/NM/SC* | 8 % AP 4 % SP |
2 % |
| 12-15 Nov 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/020649.php | 2 % PNP | 15 % | 17 % | 9 % C90/SC* | 9 % AP 2 % SP |
2.2 % |
| 3-4 Dec 2005 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021143.php | 1.6 % | 17.1 % | 18.2 % | 6.4 % SC* | 10.6 % AP | 2.3 % |
| 16-19 Dec 2005 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021482.php | 9 % PNP | 17 % | 24 % | 4 % SC* | 5 % | n/a |
| 19-23 Dec 2005 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/021469.php | 14.9 % PNP | 18.7 % | 16.3 % | 6.8 % SC* | 15.0 % | 3.6 % |
| 9-12 Jan 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022014.php | 22.9 % | 19.1 % | 17.8 % | 7.7 % | 11.3 % | 5.0 % |
| 11-13 Jan 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022022.php | 12 % | 15 % | 17 % | 2 % 6 % SC* |
7 % | 1 % |
| 20-22 Jan 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022481.php | 8.2 % | 20.2 % | 14.6 % | 2.8 % | 5.6 % | 2.5 % |
| 21-28 Jan 2006 | IMA | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022723.php | 4.4 % | 7.7 % | 7.8 % | 2.2 % | 2.7 % | 0.2 % |
| 8-10 Feb 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022924.php | 10 % (15 %) | 13 % (21 %) | 18 % (27 %) | 4 % (7 %) | 6 % (10 %) | 2 % (3 %) |
| 10-11 Feb 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/022989.php | 8 % | 14 % | 16 % | n/a | 4 % | 1 % |
| 22-24 Feb 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023513.php | 9 % (15 %) | 26 % (16 %) | 14 % (22 %) | 4 % (6 %) | 6 % (9 %) | 2 % (4 %) |
| 24-26 Feb 2006 | PUCP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023580.php | 6.0 % (10.8 %) | 13.5 % (21.1 %) | 16.7 % (26.1 %) | 3.6 % (5.7 %) | 4.2 % (6.6 %) | 3.2 % (5.0 %) |
| 24-26 Feb 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023586.php | 12.6 % |
17.8 % |
15.4 % |
10.6 % |
7.8 % |
2.0 % |
| 24-26 Feb 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023654.php | 6.5 % (10.5 %) | 14.7 % (23.5 %) | 14.8 % (23.7 %) | 3.9 % (6.3 %) | 6.9 % (11.0 %) | 3.0 % (4.9 %) |
| 23-27 Feb 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023570.php | 8.1 % (13.6 %) | 13.6 % (22.7 %) | 14.3 % (23.5 %) | 3.1 % (5.2 %) | 8.7 % (14.6 %) | 1.9 % (3.2 %) |
| 24 Feb-2 Mar 2006 | IMA | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023869.php | 8.5 % | 14.8 % | 13.7 % | 3.7 % | 4.5 % | 1.4 % |
| 8-10 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/023958.php | 11 % (17 %) | 15 % (23 %) | 13 % (20 %) | 6 % (9 %) | 5 % (8 %) | 2 % (3 %) |
| 10-12 Mar 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024123.php | 13 % | 17 % | 18 % | 6 % | 6 % | 2 % |
| 11-13 Mar 2006 | IDICE | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024091.php | 14.2 % | 18.9 % | 15.9 % | 8.8 % | 8.1 % | 2.0 % |
| 15-17 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024206.php | 12 % (16 %) | 16 % (22 %) | 13 % (18 %) | 8 % (12 %) | 5 % (7 %) | 3 % (4 %) |
| 15-19 Mar 2006 | CPI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024293.php | 9.2 % (15.5 %) | 13.1 % (21.4 %) | 11.8 % (18.9 %) | 6.7 % (10.5 %) | 6.0 % (9.7 %) | 3.8 % (5.8 %) |
| 18-19 Mar 2006 | UNI | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024419.php | 16.8 % | 17.2 % | 17.0 % | 6.1 % | 6.8 % | n/a |
| 22-24 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024527.php | 11 % (16 %) | 14 % (21 %) | 11 % (16 %) | 8 % (11 %) | 5 % (7 %) | 4 % (6 %) |
| 23-25 Mar 2006 | Conecta | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024619.php | 15.8 % (20.9 %) | 17.2 % (22.7 %) | 17.4 % (23.0 %) | 5.2 % (6.9 %) | 4.8 % (6.3 %) | 2.5 % (3.3 %) |
| 24-26 Mar 2006 | PUCP | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024742.php | 14.1 % | 15.1 % | 16.1 % | 9.4 % | 4.5 % | 2.6 % |
| 24-26 Mar 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024773.php | 10.7 % (14.2 %) | 15.8 % (21.0 %) | 14.2 % (18.8 %) | 8.5 % (11.3 %) | 6.5 % (8.6 %) | 4.1 % (5.5 %) |
| 27-31 Mar 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/024771.php | 11 % (16 %) |
14 % (19 %) |
12 % (16 %) |
11 % (15 %) |
6 % (9 %) |
4 % (6 %) |
| 5 Apr 2006 | Datum | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025076.php | ||||||
| 5 Apr 2006 | UL | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025076.php | 11.6 % (14.6 %) | 15.4 % (19.4 %) | 13.5 % (17.0 %) | 11.8 % (14.8 %) | 5.8 % (7.4 %) | 3.8 % (4.9 %) |
| 8 Apr 2006 | Apoyo | http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/archives/025076.php | ||||||