Wild card (Foresight research)
Encyclopedia
In futurology
, "wild cards" refer to low-probability, high-impact events. This concept may be introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of organisations adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which foresight
information might be inferred.
Arguably the best known work in Wild Cards comes from John Petersen author of 'Out of The Blue - How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises'. Petersen's book articulates a series of events that due to their likelihood to surprise and potential for impact might be considered 'Wildcards'. He defines Wild Cards as 'Low Probability, High Impact events that, were they to occur, would severely impact the human condition'.
Building on Petersen's work, Futurist Marcus Barber developed an additional Wild Cards tool called a 'Reference Impact Grid' (RIG) in 2004 which helps strategists and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system and to then consider what type of event might destabilise that system. Challenging Petersen's hypothesis, his additional thoughts on 'Cascading Discontinuity Sets' broke away from idea that Wild Cards are always a singular one off event, to introduce the idea that a series of interrelated events might also achieve a similar outcome to the 'big' one-off event. A Cascading Discontinuity Set can achieve a similar outcome to a one off Wildcard via a series of smaller, unplanned events that eventually come together to overwhelm the system's ability to cope. Like the 'big' wild card, the end result is the same - the system no longer has the resources available to it to continue functioning and is overwhelmed.
The idea is similar to the Black swan theory
described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan.
Futurology
Futures studies is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch under the more general scope of the field of...
, "wild cards" refer to low-probability, high-impact events. This concept may be introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of organisations adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which foresight
Foresight
Foresight or forethought may refer to:* Foresight , ability to predict or plan for the future* Foresight , management planning principle* Foresight , European planning mechanism for public policy...
information might be inferred.
Arguably the best known work in Wild Cards comes from John Petersen author of 'Out of The Blue - How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises'. Petersen's book articulates a series of events that due to their likelihood to surprise and potential for impact might be considered 'Wildcards'. He defines Wild Cards as 'Low Probability, High Impact events that, were they to occur, would severely impact the human condition'.
Building on Petersen's work, Futurist Marcus Barber developed an additional Wild Cards tool called a 'Reference Impact Grid' (RIG) in 2004 which helps strategists and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system and to then consider what type of event might destabilise that system. Challenging Petersen's hypothesis, his additional thoughts on 'Cascading Discontinuity Sets' broke away from idea that Wild Cards are always a singular one off event, to introduce the idea that a series of interrelated events might also achieve a similar outcome to the 'big' one-off event. A Cascading Discontinuity Set can achieve a similar outcome to a one off Wildcard via a series of smaller, unplanned events that eventually come together to overwhelm the system's ability to cope. Like the 'big' wild card, the end result is the same - the system no longer has the resources available to it to continue functioning and is overwhelmed.
The idea is similar to the Black swan theory
Black swan theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise and has a major impact...
described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan.