Richards Heuer
Encyclopedia
Richards J. Heuer, Jr. is a former CIA veteran of forty-five years and most known for his work on Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
and his book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. The former provides a methodology for overcoming intelligence biases while the latter outlines how mental models and natural biases impede clear thinking and analysis. He has spoken at International Association for Intelligence Education conferences. He currently works as a consultant for the Defense Personnel Security Research Center in Monterey, California. His forthcoming book on Structured Analytic Techniques, which he is coauthoring with Randy Pherson, should be published sometime in the latter half of 2009.
with a Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy. One year later, while a graduate student at the University of California in Berkeley, future CIA Director Richard Helms
recruited Heuer to work at the Central Intelligence Agency
. Helms, also a graduate of Williams College, was looking for recent graduates to hire at CIA. Heuer spent the next 24 years working with the Directorate of Operations before switching to the Directorate of Intelligence in 1975. His interest in intelligence analysis and "how we know" was rekindled by the case of Yuri Nosenko
and his studies in social science methodology while a master's student at the University of Southern California
. Heuer worked within the DI for four years, eventually retiring in 1979 as the head of the methodology unit for the political analysis office. (Though retired from the DI in 1979, Heuer continued to work as a contractor on various projects until 1995.)
Therefore, since all people observe the same information with inherent and different biases, Heuer believes an effective analysis system needs a few safeguards. It should: encourage products that clearly show their assumptions and chains of inferences; and it should emphasize procedures that expose alternative points of view. What is required of analysts is "a commitment to challenge, refine, and challenge again their own working mental models." This is a key component of his Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
; by delineating all available hypotheses and refuting the least likely ones, the most likely hypothesis becomes clearer.
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. It was developed by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., a 45-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, in the 1970s for use by the Agency and is used by analysts in...
and his book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. The former provides a methodology for overcoming intelligence biases while the latter outlines how mental models and natural biases impede clear thinking and analysis. He has spoken at International Association for Intelligence Education conferences. He currently works as a consultant for the Defense Personnel Security Research Center in Monterey, California. His forthcoming book on Structured Analytic Techniques, which he is coauthoring with Randy Pherson, should be published sometime in the latter half of 2009.
Background
Richards Heuer graduated in 1950 from Williams CollegeWilliams College
Williams College is a private liberal arts college located in Williamstown, Massachusetts, United States. It was established in 1793 with funds from the estate of Ephraim Williams. Originally a men's college, Williams became co-educational in 1970. Fraternities were also phased out during this...
with a Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy. One year later, while a graduate student at the University of California in Berkeley, future CIA Director Richard Helms
Richard Helms
Richard McGarrah Helms was the Director of Central Intelligence from 1966 to 1973. He was the only director to have been convicted of lying to the United States Congress over Central Intelligence Agency undercover activities. In 1977, he was sentenced to the maximum fine and received a suspended...
recruited Heuer to work at the Central Intelligence Agency
Central Intelligence Agency
The Central Intelligence Agency is a civilian intelligence agency of the United States government. It is an executive agency and reports directly to the Director of National Intelligence, responsible for providing national security intelligence assessment to senior United States policymakers...
. Helms, also a graduate of Williams College, was looking for recent graduates to hire at CIA. Heuer spent the next 24 years working with the Directorate of Operations before switching to the Directorate of Intelligence in 1975. His interest in intelligence analysis and "how we know" was rekindled by the case of Yuri Nosenko
Yuri Nosenko
Lt. Col. Yuri Ivanovich Nosenko was a KGB defector and a figure of significant controversy within the U.S. intelligence community, since his claims contradicted another defector, Anatoliy Golitsyn, who believed he was a KGB plant...
and his studies in social science methodology while a master's student at the University of Southern California
University of Southern California
The University of Southern California is a private, not-for-profit, nonsectarian, research university located in Los Angeles, California, United States. USC was founded in 1880, making it California's oldest private research university...
. Heuer worked within the DI for four years, eventually retiring in 1979 as the head of the methodology unit for the political analysis office. (Though retired from the DI in 1979, Heuer continued to work as a contractor on various projects until 1995.)
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and Key Concepts
Heuer's seminal work Psychology of Intelligence Analysis details his three fundamental points. First, human minds are ill equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.Mental Models and Perceptions
Mental models, or mind sets, are essentially the screens or lenses that people perceive information through. Even though every analyst sees the same piece of information, it is interpreted differently due to a variety of factors (past experience, education, and cultural values to name merely a few). In essence, one's perceptions are morphed by a variety of factors that are completely out of the control of the analyst. Heuer sees mental models as potentially good and bad for the analyst. On the positive side, they tend to simplify information for the sake of comprehension but they also obscure genuine clarity of interpretation.Therefore, since all people observe the same information with inherent and different biases, Heuer believes an effective analysis system needs a few safeguards. It should: encourage products that clearly show their assumptions and chains of inferences; and it should emphasize procedures that expose alternative points of view. What is required of analysts is "a commitment to challenge, refine, and challenge again their own working mental models." This is a key component of his Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. It was developed by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., a 45-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, in the 1970s for use by the Agency and is used by analysts in...
; by delineating all available hypotheses and refuting the least likely ones, the most likely hypothesis becomes clearer.