Retrodiction
Encyclopedia
Retrodiction is the act of making a "prediction
" about the past. This is especially useful when one wishes to test a theory whose actual predictions are too long-term to be of immediate use. One speculates about uncertain events in the more distant past so that the theory would have predicted a known event in the less distant past. This is useful in, for example, the fields of archaeology
, climatology
, evolutionary biology, financial analysis
, forensic science, and cosmology
.
Michael Clive Price has written:
Postdiction, in a slightly different sense, is used to evaluate speculative theories such as those formulated by theoretical physicists. In this case it refers to predicting known (but not necessarily past) events. For example, a theory attempting to extend or replace the standard model
that fails to predict the existence of known particles has not met the test of postdiction.
In the field of neuroscience, postdiction was introduced by the neuroscientist David Eagleman
to indicate that the brain collects information after an event before it retrospectively decides what happened at the time of the event (Eagleman and Sejnowski, 2000).
Prediction
A prediction or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge...
" about the past. This is especially useful when one wishes to test a theory whose actual predictions are too long-term to be of immediate use. One speculates about uncertain events in the more distant past so that the theory would have predicted a known event in the less distant past. This is useful in, for example, the fields of archaeology
Archaeology
Archaeology, or archeology , is the study of human society, primarily through the recovery and analysis of the material culture and environmental data that they have left behind, which includes artifacts, architecture, biofacts and cultural landscapes...
, climatology
Climatology
Climatology is the study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time, and is a branch of the atmospheric sciences...
, evolutionary biology, financial analysis
Financial analysis
Financial analysis refers to an assessment of the viability, stability and profitability of a business, sub-business or project....
, forensic science, and cosmology
Physical cosmology
Physical cosmology, as a branch of astronomy, is the study of the largest-scale structures and dynamics of the universe and is concerned with fundamental questions about its formation and evolution. For most of human history, it was a branch of metaphysics and religion...
.
Michael Clive Price has written:
A retrodiction occurs when already gathered data is accounted for by a later theoretical advance in a more convincing fashion. The advantage of a retrodiction over a prediction is that the already gathered data is more likely to be free of experimenter bias. An example of a retrodiction is the perihelion shift of Mercury which Newtonian mechanics plus gravity was unable, totally, to account for whilst Einstein's general relativity made short work of it.
Postdiction, in a slightly different sense, is used to evaluate speculative theories such as those formulated by theoretical physicists. In this case it refers to predicting known (but not necessarily past) events. For example, a theory attempting to extend or replace the standard model
Standard Model
The Standard Model of particle physics is a theory concerning the electromagnetic, weak, and strong nuclear interactions, which mediate the dynamics of the known subatomic particles. Developed throughout the mid to late 20th century, the current formulation was finalized in the mid 1970s upon...
that fails to predict the existence of known particles has not met the test of postdiction.
In the field of neuroscience, postdiction was introduced by the neuroscientist David Eagleman
David Eagleman
David Eagleman is a neuroscientist at Baylor College of Medicine, where he directs the Laboratory for Perception and Action and the Initiative on Neuroscience and Law. He is best known for his work on time perception, synesthesia, and neurolaw...
to indicate that the brain collects information after an event before it retrospectively decides what happened at the time of the event (Eagleman and Sejnowski, 2000).