Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies
Encyclopedia
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies is a political polling firm based in Louisville, Colorado
that provides data and information services to Republican Party
candidates and conservative political organizations, as well as serving public affairs firms and businesses. The firm was founded in November 2006.
The firm helps elucidated public opinion for conservative candidates and organizations and helps their voter targeting. Its data services are designed to boost the efficacy of political campaigns and public outreach programs.
In addition to data management, modelling and enhancement, Magellan's information services include predictive analytics, quantitative survey research, mapping and redistricting, and voter registration and targeting. Magellan also provides donor and voter registration databases.
Magellan is a member of the Marketing Research Association
, the American Association of Public Opinion Research, and the American Association of Political Consultants
. The firm receives business from the Republican National Committee
and Americans for Prosperity
. The firms website in 2010 had a headline "Magellan Strategies Helping Republicans Win Elections".
In May of 2011 Magellan accurately predicted the Colorado Springs Mayor runoff election (Source) In September of 2011 Magellan accurately predicted the special recall eleciton in Wisconsin Senate District 18. (source) Magellan was also one of the first polling firms to accurately predict the September 2011 New York special election in the 9th Congressional district when Repubilcan Bob Turner defeated Democrat David Weprin. (source)
Magellan was criticized for making an innaccurate prediction that Tom Tancredo would win the 2010 Colroado Governors Eleciton. 2010 gubernatorial election in Colorado
. Magellan CEO & President David Flaherty flatly stated that “Tom Tancredo
will become Colorado's next governor,” on Friday, October 29, 2010. Tom Tancredo lost to Democrat John Hickenlooper
on election day, November 2nd. Hickenlooper resoundingly beat Tancredo by a margin of 51% to 36%. Editorial page editor Curtis Hubbard of the Denver Post gave Magellan his "Agony of Defeat" award for the worst poll in the gubernatorial race. (In September 2011, Hubbard praised Magellan for correctly predicting the outcome of the New York Ninth Congressional District
race.)
had surged in New Hampshire
, which hosts the first Presidential nominating primary. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
had long led polls in New Hampshire, yet the Magellan Poll seemingly revealed he had lost a quarter of his support.
The Magellan Poll reported that Romney had 29% of the support of surveyed voters while Gingrich was in a virtual statistical tie with 27%. By contrast, a Bloomberg News poll conducted less than a week before the Magellan Poll put Romney's support in New Hampshire at 40% and Gingrich at 11%.
In a Twitter
tweet, National Journal
Online polling editor Steven Shepherd revealed that the Magellan Poll had made significant sampling errors, by over-sampling senior citizens. Twenty-eight percent of the respondents of The Magellan Poll in question had been voters aged 65 years or older, whereas Shepherd cited a 2008 Republican exit poll as a baseline in which that demographic group only accounted for 15% of respondents. The Magellan Poll also under-sampled voters in the 18-34 range. Additionally, the poll was conducted as a robo-call targeting landline telephones and ignored cell phones. Michael Brendan Dougherty of Business Insider characterized it as "a useless poll beyond generating over-cooked headlines."
Louisville, Colorado
Louisville is a Home Rule Municipality in Boulder County, Colorado, United States. The population was 18,937 at the 2000 census. Louisville began as a rough mining community in 1877, suffered through a period of extraordinary labor violence early in the 20th century, and then, when the mines...
that provides data and information services to Republican Party
Republican Party
-Africa:*Republican Party *Republican Party *Republican Party -Asia:*Republican Party *Republican Party *Republican Party *Republican Party of Afghanistan*Republican Party of India...
candidates and conservative political organizations, as well as serving public affairs firms and businesses. The firm was founded in November 2006.
The firm helps elucidated public opinion for conservative candidates and organizations and helps their voter targeting. Its data services are designed to boost the efficacy of political campaigns and public outreach programs.
In addition to data management, modelling and enhancement, Magellan's information services include predictive analytics, quantitative survey research, mapping and redistricting, and voter registration and targeting. Magellan also provides donor and voter registration databases.
Magellan is a member of the Marketing Research Association
Marketing Research Association
Founded in 1957, the Marketing Research Association, Inc. is one of the largest trade associations of market research and polling professionals. MRA has more than 3,000 members worldwide, representing all segments of the research industry...
, the American Association of Public Opinion Research, and the American Association of Political Consultants
American Association of Political Consultants
The American Association of Political Consultants is the trade group for the political consulting profession in the United States. Founded in 1969, it is the world's largest organization of political consultants, public affairs professionals and communications specialists...
. The firm receives business from the Republican National Committee
Republican National Committee
The Republican National Committee is an American political committee that provides national leadership for the Republican Party of the United States. It is responsible for developing and promoting the Republican political platform, as well as coordinating fundraising and election strategy. It is...
and Americans for Prosperity
Americans for Prosperity
Americans for Prosperity is a Washington, D.C.–based political advocacy group. According to their literature, they promote economic policy that supports business, and restrains regulation by government...
. The firms website in 2010 had a headline "Magellan Strategies Helping Republicans Win Elections".
Magellan Strategies Public Polling Track Record
Magellan has accurately predicted several Republican primary, special and general elections in the 2010 and 2011 eleciton cycles, including the New Hampshire US Senate Republican primary (source), the Kentucky US Senate Republican Primary (source), the California US Senate and Governor Republican primaries (Source), and the Georgia Governor primary (Source). For the 2010 general eleciton Magellan accurately predicted the final results of the US Senate race in Louisiana (source), and the Governor race in Pennsylvania (source).In May of 2011 Magellan accurately predicted the Colorado Springs Mayor runoff election (Source) In September of 2011 Magellan accurately predicted the special recall eleciton in Wisconsin Senate District 18. (source) Magellan was also one of the first polling firms to accurately predict the September 2011 New York special election in the 9th Congressional district when Repubilcan Bob Turner defeated Democrat David Weprin. (source)
Magellan was criticized for making an innaccurate prediction that Tom Tancredo would win the 2010 Colroado Governors Eleciton. 2010 gubernatorial election in Colorado
Colorado gubernatorial election, 2010
The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Colorado, who will serve a four-year term to begin in January 2011. John Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote. Incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Ritter announced that he would not...
. Magellan CEO & President David Flaherty flatly stated that “Tom Tancredo
Tom Tancredo
Thomas Gerard "Tom" Tancredo is an American politician from Colorado, who represented the state's sixth congressional district in the United States House of Representatives from 1999 to 2009, as a Republican...
will become Colorado's next governor,” on Friday, October 29, 2010. Tom Tancredo lost to Democrat John Hickenlooper
John Hickenlooper
John Wright Hickenlooper is an American politician and current Governor of Colorado. A Democrat, he was previously the Mayor of Denver, Colorado from 2003 to 2011.-Early life, education and career:...
on election day, November 2nd. Hickenlooper resoundingly beat Tancredo by a margin of 51% to 36%. Editorial page editor Curtis Hubbard of the Denver Post gave Magellan his "Agony of Defeat" award for the worst poll in the gubernatorial race. (In September 2011, Hubbard praised Magellan for correctly predicting the outcome of the New York Ninth Congressional District
New York's 9th congressional district
New York's 9th Congressional District is a congressional district for the United States House of Representatives in New York City. It includes parts of southern Brooklyn and south central Queens...
race.)
New Hampshire Primary Poll
In mid-November 2011, a Magellan Poll conducted for the New Hampshire Journal surprisingly reported that Newt GingrichNewt Gingrich
Newton Leroy "Newt" Gingrich is a U.S. Republican Party politician who served as the House Minority Whip from 1989 to 1995 and as the 58th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999....
had surged in New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. The state was named after the southern English county of Hampshire. It is bordered by Massachusetts to the south, Vermont to the west, Maine and the Atlantic Ocean to the east, and the Canadian...
, which hosts the first Presidential nominating primary. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney
Willard Mitt Romney is an American businessman and politician. He was the 70th Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007 and is a candidate for the 2012 Republican Party presidential nomination.The son of George W...
had long led polls in New Hampshire, yet the Magellan Poll seemingly revealed he had lost a quarter of his support.
The Magellan Poll reported that Romney had 29% of the support of surveyed voters while Gingrich was in a virtual statistical tie with 27%. By contrast, a Bloomberg News poll conducted less than a week before the Magellan Poll put Romney's support in New Hampshire at 40% and Gingrich at 11%.
In a Twitter
Twitter
Twitter is an online social networking and microblogging service that enables its users to send and read text-based posts of up to 140 characters, informally known as "tweets".Twitter was created in March 2006 by Jack Dorsey and launched that July...
tweet, National Journal
National Journal
National Journal is a nonpartisan American weekly magazine that reports on the current political environment and emerging political and policy trends. National Journal was first published in 1969. Times Mirror owned the magazine from 1986 to 1997, when it was purchased by David G. Bradley...
Online polling editor Steven Shepherd revealed that the Magellan Poll had made significant sampling errors, by over-sampling senior citizens. Twenty-eight percent of the respondents of The Magellan Poll in question had been voters aged 65 years or older, whereas Shepherd cited a 2008 Republican exit poll as a baseline in which that demographic group only accounted for 15% of respondents. The Magellan Poll also under-sampled voters in the 18-34 range. Additionally, the poll was conducted as a robo-call targeting landline telephones and ignored cell phones. Michael Brendan Dougherty of Business Insider characterized it as "a useless poll beyond generating over-cooked headlines."
Magellan Strategies Survey Weighting Methodology
Magellan Strategies maintains and uses a national database of registered voters to determine their survey sampling weights by gender, age group, party registration and race. The firm does take into account past exit polling for a state or district when determining final survey weighting, but the principals of the firm consider exit polling data secondary and much less accurate than aggregated vote history from a complete and accurate voter registration database with solid vote history.External Links
- Commentary, "Gingrich and Romney Tied in NH"
- Concord Monitor, "Magellan poll: good news for Ayotte"
- Daily Kos, "Nevada poll: Romney rising, Cain dropping, Perry on life support"
- Human Events, "Little Sunshine for Obama in Florida"
- Las Vegas Sun, "Poll shows Perry leading Romney among likely GOP voters in Nevada"
- Los Angeles Times, "Poll suggests Newt Gingrich threatens Mitt Romney in New Hampshire"
- New Hampshire Journal, "POLL: Obama rebounding in NH, but Obamacare on the ropes"
- Orlando Sentinel, "Magellan Poll: Obama in trouble but no Republicans lighting up Florida"
- Politico.com, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies' February 2, 2011 Memorandum: New Hampshire 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results
- Slate, "Poll: Ron Paul Bests Bachmann in New Hampshire"
- Wall Street Journal, "Poll: Gingrich, Romney in Dead Heat in N.H."