Evidential Reasoning Approach
Encyclopedia
In decision theory
, the evidential reasoning approach (ER), is a generic evidence-based multi-criteria decision analysis
(MCDA) approach for dealing with problems having both quantitative and qualitative criteria under various uncertainties including ignorance and randomness. It has been used to support various decision analysis
, assessment and evaluation
activities such as environmental impact assessment
and organizational self-assessment
based on a range of quality models
.
technology. It uses a belief structure
to model an assessment with uncertainty, a belief decision matrix
to represent an MCDA problem under uncertainty, evidential reasoning algorithms to aggregate criteria for generating distributed assessments, and the concepts of the belief and plausibility functions to generate a utility interval for measuring the degree of ignorance. A conventional decision matrix
used for modeling an MCDA problem is a special case of a belief decision matrix.
The use of belief decision matrices for MCDA problem modelling in the ER approach results in the following features:
The ER approach is implemented in a software tool called Intelligent Decision System.
Decision theory
Decision theory in economics, psychology, philosophy, mathematics, and statistics is concerned with identifying the values, uncertainties and other issues relevant in a given decision, its rationality, and the resulting optimal decision...
, the evidential reasoning approach (ER), is a generic evidence-based multi-criteria decision analysis
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
Multiple-criteria decision-making or multiple-criteria decision analysis is a sub-discipline of operations research that explicitly considers multiple criteria in decision-making environments. Whether in our daily lives or in professional settings, there are typically multiple conflicting criteria...
(MCDA) approach for dealing with problems having both quantitative and qualitative criteria under various uncertainties including ignorance and randomness. It has been used to support various decision analysis
Decision analysis
Decision analysis is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner...
, assessment and evaluation
Evaluation
Evaluation is systematic determination of merit, worth, and significance of something or someone using criteria against a set of standards.Evaluation often is used to characterize and appraise subjects of interest in a wide range of human enterprises, including the arts, criminal justice,...
activities such as environmental impact assessment
Environmental impact assessment
An environmental impact assessment is an assessment of the possible positive or negative impact that a proposed project may have on the environment, together consisting of the natural, social and economic aspects....
and organizational self-assessment
Self-assessment
In social psychology, self-assessment is the process of looking at oneself in order to assess aspects that are important to one's identity. It is one of the motives that drive self-evaluation, along with self-verification and self-enhancement...
based on a range of quality models
EFQM
EFQM is a non-profit membership foundation based in Brussels. EFQM is the custodian of the EFQM Excellence Model, a non-prescriptive management framework that is widely used in public & private sector organisations throughout Europe and beyond.EFQM Membership is open to organisations, rather than...
.
Overview
The evidential reasoning approach is recently developed on the basis of decision theory in particular utility theory, artificial intelligence in particular the theory of evidence, statistical analysis and computerComputer
A computer is a programmable machine designed to sequentially and automatically carry out a sequence of arithmetic or logical operations. The particular sequence of operations can be changed readily, allowing the computer to solve more than one kind of problem...
technology. It uses a belief structure
Belief structure
A belief structure is a distributed assessment with beliefs. It is used in the evidential reasoning approach for multi-criteria decision analysis to represent the performance of an alternative option on a criterion. For example, the quality of a car engine may be assessed to be “excellent” with a...
to model an assessment with uncertainty, a belief decision matrix
Belief decision matrix
Similar to decision matrix, a belief decision matrix is used to describe a multiple criteria decision analysis problem in the Evidential Reasoning Approach. If in an MCDA problem, there are M alternative options and each need to be assessed on N criteria, then the belief decision matrix for the...
to represent an MCDA problem under uncertainty, evidential reasoning algorithms to aggregate criteria for generating distributed assessments, and the concepts of the belief and plausibility functions to generate a utility interval for measuring the degree of ignorance. A conventional decision matrix
Decision Matrix
A decision matrix is a list of values in rows and columns that allows an ologist to systematically identify, analyze, and rate the performance of relationships between sets of values and information. Elements of a decision matrix show decisions based on certain decision criteria...
used for modeling an MCDA problem is a special case of a belief decision matrix.
The use of belief decision matrices for MCDA problem modelling in the ER approach results in the following features:
- An assessment of an option can be more reliably and realistically represented by a belief decision matrix than by a conventional decision matrix.
- It accepts data of different formats with various types of uncertainties as inputs, such as single numerical values, probability distribution, and subjective judgments with belief degrees.
- It allows all available information embedded in different data formats, including qualitative and incomplete data, to be maximally incorporated in assessment and decision making processes.
- It allows assessment outcomes to be represented more informatively.
The ER approach is implemented in a software tool called Intelligent Decision System.
External links
- Intelligent Decision System Software for evidence based MCDA, assessments and evaluations
- International Society on Multiple Criteria Decision Making