The End of Oil
Encyclopedia
The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World is a non-fiction book by American
journalist and author Paul Roberts
. Published in 2004, it is Roberts' book-length debut. It provides an analysis of the various problems associated with humanity's reliance on oil
and other fossil fuels
such as coal
and natural gas
.
, in 1712, presented the first large steam engine
, and thus helped spark the Industrial Revolution
. He then goes on to explain the problems that have since developed, or may develop in the future, from humanity's reliance on oil and its "geological siblings", coal and natural gas. While there is a chapter on hydrogen
as a possible alternative to oil (not as an energy source, but as an energy carrier), the book is not focused on any one solution to the problems it lays out.
According to Roberts, oil faces three major dilemmas. Most importantly, all fossil fuels are by their very nature limited in supply; as far as oil is concerned, the resulting dilemma is best known as the question of peak oil
. Further, much of the oil consumed by affluent countries such as the United States
is extracted in countries that are rather unstable politically, such as some of the members of the OPEC
. The oil trade is therefore prone to become intertwined with international relations
, although the nature of this interplay is highly controversial, with some citing oil as a reason for conflicts such as the Iraq War and others denying such claims. Finally, since the burning of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide
that was previously locked in the ground, humanity's reliance on oil may contribute to global warming
.
As to the aims of the book, Roberts states at the end of the prologue:
. These were soon proved to be, if anything, too optimistic. For example, citing Arab Oil and Gas magazine as a source, Roberts wrote that "in the next five to ten years", if there were to be any large disruption in supply, "prices could easily be bid up past sixty dollars a barrel and kept there for months". In fact, prices passed the sixty-dollar mark as early as June 2005,
thirteen months after the book was first published.
global warming
is a long lasting and cumulative problem. CO2
accumulates in the atmosphere within decades. According to IPCC
in 2004 the maximum was 4.1 billion tonnes carbon (15 bt CO2) during 2004-2300. One tonne carbon is 3.67 tonnes CO2.
In 2010 the energy-related CO2 emissions were highest in the history 30.6 Gt (30.6 bt CO2). According to IEA, the global energy CO2 -emissions should be equal or less than 32 Gt in 2020 to fulfil the agreed 450 Scenario.
, in an article for the New York Review of Books, described it as "perhaps the best single book ever produced about our energy economy and its environmental implications."
Fellow author Joseph J. Romm
, whose The Hype about Hydrogen
had been published a few weeks before The End of Oil, called the book "fascinating" and "a stinging rebuke of America's myopic, do-nothing energy policy." In 2005, it was a finalist for the New York Public Library's
Helen Bernstein Book Award.
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
journalist and author Paul Roberts
Paul Roberts (author)
Paul Roberts is an American journalist and author of two non-fiction books, The End of Oil and The End of Food . He had before been a regular contributor to Harper's Magazine and writes primarily about "the complex interplay of economics, technology, and the natural world."-The End of Oil :In his...
. Published in 2004, it is Roberts' book-length debut. It provides an analysis of the various problems associated with humanity's reliance on oil
Petroleum
Petroleum or crude oil is a naturally occurring, flammable liquid consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights and other liquid organic compounds, that are found in geologic formations beneath the Earth's surface. Petroleum is recovered mostly through oil drilling...
and other fossil fuels
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuels are fuels formed by natural processes such as anaerobic decomposition of buried dead organisms. The age of the organisms and their resulting fossil fuels is typically millions of years, and sometimes exceeds 650 million years...
such as coal
Coal
Coal is a combustible black or brownish-black sedimentary rock usually occurring in rock strata in layers or veins called coal beds or coal seams. The harder forms, such as anthracite coal, can be regarded as metamorphic rock because of later exposure to elevated temperature and pressure...
and natural gas
Natural gas
Natural gas is a naturally occurring gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, typically with 0–20% higher hydrocarbons . It is found associated with other hydrocarbon fuel, in coal beds, as methane clathrates, and is an important fuel source and a major feedstock for fertilizers.Most natural...
.
Synopsis
Though The End of Oil is not a chronological history of humanity's use of fossil fuels, Roberts begins by recounting how Thomas NewcomenThomas Newcomen
Thomas Newcomen was an ironmonger by trade and a Baptist lay preacher by calling. He was born in Dartmouth, Devon, England, near a part of the country noted for its tin mines. Flooding was a major problem, limiting the depth at which the mineral could be mined...
, in 1712, presented the first large steam engine
Steam engine
A steam engine is a heat engine that performs mechanical work using steam as its working fluid.Steam engines are external combustion engines, where the working fluid is separate from the combustion products. Non-combustion heat sources such as solar power, nuclear power or geothermal energy may be...
, and thus helped spark the Industrial Revolution
Industrial Revolution
The Industrial Revolution was a period from the 18th to the 19th century where major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and technology had a profound effect on the social, economic and cultural conditions of the times...
. He then goes on to explain the problems that have since developed, or may develop in the future, from humanity's reliance on oil and its "geological siblings", coal and natural gas. While there is a chapter on hydrogen
Hydrogen
Hydrogen is the chemical element with atomic number 1. It is represented by the symbol H. With an average atomic weight of , hydrogen is the lightest and most abundant chemical element, constituting roughly 75% of the Universe's chemical elemental mass. Stars in the main sequence are mainly...
as a possible alternative to oil (not as an energy source, but as an energy carrier), the book is not focused on any one solution to the problems it lays out.
According to Roberts, oil faces three major dilemmas. Most importantly, all fossil fuels are by their very nature limited in supply; as far as oil is concerned, the resulting dilemma is best known as the question of peak oil
Peak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
. Further, much of the oil consumed by affluent countries such as the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
is extracted in countries that are rather unstable politically, such as some of the members of the OPEC
OPEC
OPEC is an intergovernmental organization of twelve developing countries made up of Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. OPEC has maintained its headquarters in Vienna since 1965, and hosts regular meetings...
. The oil trade is therefore prone to become intertwined with international relations
International relations
International relations is the study of relationships between countries, including the roles of states, inter-governmental organizations , international nongovernmental organizations , non-governmental organizations and multinational corporations...
, although the nature of this interplay is highly controversial, with some citing oil as a reason for conflicts such as the Iraq War and others denying such claims. Finally, since the burning of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide is a naturally occurring chemical compound composed of two oxygen atoms covalently bonded to a single carbon atom...
that was previously locked in the ground, humanity's reliance on oil may contribute to global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
.
As to the aims of the book, Roberts states at the end of the prologue:
Predictions for the price of oil
At various points in the book, Roberts makes cautious predictions for the price of oilPrice of petroleum
The price of petroleum as quoted in news generally refers to the spot price per barrel of either WTI/light crude as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma, or of Brent as traded on the Intercontinental Exchange for delivery at Sullom Voe.The price...
. These were soon proved to be, if anything, too optimistic. For example, citing Arab Oil and Gas magazine as a source, Roberts wrote that "in the next five to ten years", if there were to be any large disruption in supply, "prices could easily be bid up past sixty dollars a barrel and kept there for months". In fact, prices passed the sixty-dollar mark as early as June 2005,
thirteen months after the book was first published.
Climate change
According to Paul RobertsPaul Roberts
Paul Roberts is an English singer who was the lead singer of The Stranglers between 1990 and 2006.-The Stranglers:...
global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
is a long lasting and cumulative problem. CO2
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide is a naturally occurring chemical compound composed of two oxygen atoms covalently bonded to a single carbon atom...
accumulates in the atmosphere within decades. According to IPCC
IPCC
IPCC may refer to:*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the United Nations*Independent Police Complaints Commission, of England and Wales*Irish Peatland Conservation Council...
in 2004 the maximum was 4.1 billion tonnes carbon (15 bt CO2) during 2004-2300. One tonne carbon is 3.67 tonnes CO2.
In 2010 the energy-related CO2 emissions were highest in the history 30.6 Gt (30.6 bt CO2). According to IEA, the global energy CO2 -emissions should be equal or less than 32 Gt in 2020 to fulfil the agreed 450 Scenario.
Reception
The End of Oil received a number of positive reviews from American newspapers and review publications. Notably, environmentalist Bill McKibbenBill McKibben
William Ernest "Bill" McKibben is an American environmentalist, author, and journalist who has written extensively on the impact of global warming. He is the Schumann Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College...
, in an article for the New York Review of Books, described it as "perhaps the best single book ever produced about our energy economy and its environmental implications."
Fellow author Joseph J. Romm
Joseph J. Romm
Joseph J. Romm is an American author, blogger, physicist and climate expert who concentrates on methods of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and global warming and increasing energy security through energy efficiency, green energy technologies and green transportation technologies...
, whose The Hype about Hydrogen
The Hype about Hydrogen
The Hype about Hydrogen: Fact and Fiction in the Race to Save the Climate is a book by Joseph J. Romm, published in 2004 by Island Press and updated in 2005. The book has been translated into German as Der Wasserstoff-Boom...
had been published a few weeks before The End of Oil, called the book "fascinating" and "a stinging rebuke of America's myopic, do-nothing energy policy." In 2005, it was a finalist for the New York Public Library's
New York Public Library
The New York Public Library is the largest public library in North America and is one of the United States' most significant research libraries...
Helen Bernstein Book Award.
External links
- Interview with Roberts about The End of Oil at National Public Radio on May 6, 2004 (audio)
- The True Debate about Energy: When Oil Runs Out...