Psychohistory (fictional)
Encyclopedia
Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov
's Foundation universe which combines history
, sociology
, and mathematical statistics
to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire
. It was first introduced in the five short stories (1942–1944) which would later be collected as the 1951 novel Foundation
.
as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas
: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. (Physicists
know this as the Kinetic theory
.) Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon
, established two axiom
s:
There is a third underlying axiom of Psychohistory, which is trivial and thus not stated by Seldon in his Plan:
and built by Yugo Amaryl
, as storing the psychohistorical equations showing the future development of humanity.
The Prime Radiant projects the equations onto walls in some unexplained manner, but it does not cast shadows, thus allowing workers easy interaction. Control operates through the power of the mind, allowing the user to zoom in to details of the equations, and to change them. One can make annotations, but by convention all amendments remain anonymous.
A student destined for speakerhood has to present an amendment to the plan. Five different boards then check the mathematics rigorously. Students have to defend their proposals against concerted and merciless attacks. After two years the change gets reviewed again. If after the second examination it still passes muster the contribution becomes part of the Seldon Plan
.
The Radiant, as well as being interactive, employs a type of colour-coding to equations within itself for ready comprehension by Psychohistorians.
Other colours have been imagined by fans, and mentioned by Asimov, such as:
(1983), which takes place thousands of years before Foundation
(1951), he describes roboticist Han Fastolfe's attempts to create the science based on careful observation of others, particularly of his daughter Vasilia. Prelude to Foundation
(1988) suggests that one of Fastolfe's robots, R. Daneel Olivaw
, manipulated Seldon into practical application of this science.
might suggest that even Seldon himself had doubts about the ultimate ability of a purely mathematical approach to predicting historical processes, and that he recognized that the development of psychic skills, such as those used by the Mule
, had the ability to invalidate the assumptions underlying his models, though he did not (and could not) predict the appearance of the Mule himself. The Seldon methodology might therefore only work at a certain level of species-development, and would over time become less useful.
Psychohistory has one basic, underlying limitation which Asimov postulated for the first time on literally the last page of the final book in the Foundation series: psychohistory only functions in a galaxy populated only by humans. In Asimov's Foundation series, humans form the only sentient race that developed in the entire Milky Way
Galaxy. Seldon developed psychohistory to predict the actions of large groups of humans. Even robots technically fall under the umbrella of psychohistory, because humans built them, and they thus represent more or less a human "action", or at least, possess a thought-framework similar enough to that of their human creators that psychohistory can predict their actions. However, psychohistory cannot predict the actions of a sentient alien race; their psychology may differ so much from that of humans that normal psychohistory cannot understand or predict their actions.
The end of the series offered two possibilities:
on her National Public Radio program, Fresh Air
.
In it, Gross asked him about psychohistory:
developed in the 19th century what he called "social physics". Quetelet studied the statistical laws underlying the behaviour of what he called "average man".
Some individuals and groups, inspired by Asimov's psychohistory, seriously explore the possibility of a working psychohistory not unlike the one imagined by Asimov — a statistical study of history that could help in the formulation of some "theory of history" and perhaps become a tool of historical prediction.
Complexity theory, an offshoot of chaos mathematics theory, explored by Stuart Kauffman in his books "At Home in the Universe" and "Redefining the Sacred" cover the concept of statistical modeling of sociological evolutions. The concept was also explored in "Order Out of Chaos" by Ilya Prigogine.
Another theory that has similarities to Psychohistory is "Generational Dynamics" proposed by John J. Xenakis, where he proposes, "Generational Dynamics is a historical methodology that analyzes historical events through the flow of generations, and uses the analysis to forecast future events by comparing today's generational attitudes to those of the past". Essentially, generations immediately after a major crisis event (stock market crash, civil war, world war) will be unwilling to live through such events again and will be risk-averse. Generations after them may well be aware of previous crisis events, but will be more risk-tolerant, as they have not been exposed to the crisis themselves. Xenakis states that this allows one to predict future crisis events by analyzing the current generation's outlooks.
For similar ideas see Peter Turchin
's WAR AND PEACE AND WAR: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations.
Also cliodynamics
: "the mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies."
Nathan Eagle and Alex Pentland (among others) have developed useful techniques for predicting human behavior through statistical analysis of smartphone data.
At the 67th science-fiction world convention in Montreal, Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate in Economics, mentioned Hari Seldon, a central character in Foundation who was a psycohistorian, as his inspiration to study Economics since it's the closest thing to Psycohistory, according to P. Krugman.
science-fiction role-playing game
, released in 1977. The alien race known as the Hivers use extensive manipulation
of other cultures based on psychohistorical data to achieve their own ends. Rumors ascribe the assassination of the Third Imperium's Emperor Strephon to a Hiver manipulation based on psychohistorical data indicating the eventual fall of the Third Imperium. Humans in the setting have also attempted to use psychohistory, but with less skill or success; the Psionic Suppressions (which turned public opinion within the human Imperium against those with paranormal mental abilities, forcing them to go into hiding) resulted, unknown to most, from an experiment in psychohistory that got out of control and went much farther than the experimenters intended.
's theory of history (historical materialism
), though Asimov denied any direct influence. Arguably, Asimov's psychohistory departs significantly from Marx's general theory of history based on modes of production (as distinct from Marx's model of the capitalist economy, where "natural laws" work themselves out with "iron necessity") in that psychohistory is predictive (if only in the sense of involving precisely stated probabilities), and in that psychohistory is extrapolated from individual psychology and even from physics.
Psychohistory also has echoes of modernization theory
and of work in the social sciences that by the 1960s would lead to attempts at large-scale social prediction and control such as Project Camelot
.
Isaac Asimov
Isaac Asimov was an American author and professor of biochemistry at Boston University, best known for his works of science fiction and for his popular science books. Asimov was one of the most prolific writers of all time, having written or edited more than 500 books and an estimated 90,000...
's Foundation universe which combines history
History
History is the discovery, collection, organization, and presentation of information about past events. History can also mean the period of time after writing was invented. Scholars who write about history are called historians...
, sociology
Sociology
Sociology is the study of society. It is a social science—a term with which it is sometimes synonymous—which uses various methods of empirical investigation and critical analysis to develop a body of knowledge about human social activity...
, and mathematical statistics
Statistics
Statistics is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. It deals with all aspects of this, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments....
to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire
Galactic Empire (Asimov)
In Isaac Asimov's Robot/Empire/Foundation series of novels, the Galactic Empire is an empire consisting of millions of planets settled by humans across the whole Milky Way Galaxy. Its symbol is the Spaceship and Sun logo.-Author's creation of the empire:...
. It was first introduced in the five short stories (1942–1944) which would later be collected as the 1951 novel Foundation
Foundation (novel)
Foundation is the first book in Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy . Foundation is a collection of five short stories, which were first published together as a book by Gnome Press in 1951...
.
Axioms
Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statisticsEmpirical statistical laws
An empirical statistical law or a law of statistics represents a type of behaviour that has been found across a number of datasets and, indeed, across a range of types of data sets. Many of these observances have been formulated and proved as statistical or probabilistic theorems and the term...
as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas
Gas
Gas is one of the three classical states of matter . Near absolute zero, a substance exists as a solid. As heat is added to this substance it melts into a liquid at its melting point , boils into a gas at its boiling point, and if heated high enough would enter a plasma state in which the electrons...
: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. (Physicists
Physics
Physics is a natural science that involves the study of matter and its motion through spacetime, along with related concepts such as energy and force. More broadly, it is the general analysis of nature, conducted in order to understand how the universe behaves.Physics is one of the oldest academic...
know this as the Kinetic theory
Kinetic theory
The kinetic theory of gases describes a gas as a large number of small particles , all of which are in constant, random motion. The rapidly moving particles constantly collide with each other and with the walls of the container...
.) Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon
Hari Seldon
Hari Seldon, a fictional character, is the intellectual hero of Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series. In his capacity as mathematics professor at Streeling University on Trantor, he developed psychohistory, allowing him to predict the future in probabilistic terms...
, established two axiom
Axiom
In traditional logic, an axiom or postulate is a proposition that is not proven or demonstrated but considered either to be self-evident or to define and delimit the realm of analysis. In other words, an axiom is a logical statement that is assumed to be true...
s:
- that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large
- that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses
There is a third underlying axiom of Psychohistory, which is trivial and thus not stated by Seldon in his Plan:
- that Human Beings are the only sentient intelligence in the Galaxy.
The Prime Radiant
Asimov presents the Prime Radiant, a device designed by Hari SeldonHari Seldon
Hari Seldon, a fictional character, is the intellectual hero of Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series. In his capacity as mathematics professor at Streeling University on Trantor, he developed psychohistory, allowing him to predict the future in probabilistic terms...
and built by Yugo Amaryl
Yugo Amaryl
Yugo Amaryl is a fictional character in Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. Amaryl, along with Hari Seldon, worked on psychohistory until his death at age 52....
, as storing the psychohistorical equations showing the future development of humanity.
The Prime Radiant projects the equations onto walls in some unexplained manner, but it does not cast shadows, thus allowing workers easy interaction. Control operates through the power of the mind, allowing the user to zoom in to details of the equations, and to change them. One can make annotations, but by convention all amendments remain anonymous.
A student destined for speakerhood has to present an amendment to the plan. Five different boards then check the mathematics rigorously. Students have to defend their proposals against concerted and merciless attacks. After two years the change gets reviewed again. If after the second examination it still passes muster the contribution becomes part of the Seldon Plan
Seldon Plan
The Seldon Plan is the central theme of Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series of stories and novels.-Psychohistory:According to Asimov's novels, Hari Seldon devised the Seldon Plan using a mathematical analysis he originally developed and called psychohistory...
.
The Radiant, as well as being interactive, employs a type of colour-coding to equations within itself for ready comprehension by Psychohistorians.
- Seldon Black are the original Seldon Plan equations developed by Seldon and Amaryl during the first four decades of Seldon's work at the University of Streeling, and define Seldon Crises, the Plan's duration, and the eventuation of the Second Galactic Empire.
- Speaker Red are additions to the plan by Speakers (Senior Mentalic Psychohistorians of the Second Foundation) since the time of Seldon. This convention is supposed to have been begun by Gaal Dornick, the second First Speaker of the Second Foundation after the death of Seldon.
- Deviation Blue are observed deviations away from Psychohistorical projections with a deviation in excess of 1.5 standard deviation of predicted outcomes (1.5 σ). The Era of Deviations, at the rise of the Mule, produced deviations in the Seldon Plan in excess of .5 through 10 sigmas, and the resolution of this period required a full century of labour on the part of the Second Foundation to return the Galaxy to the Plan.
Other colours have been imagined by fans, and mentioned by Asimov, such as:
- Notation Green - additions of pertinent scientific papers appended to findings (Forward the Foundation)
- Projection Purple - Useful for determining limits on future Speaker Red equations, using projections of events with regard to a very sketchy but still monumental Seldon Black scheme. A tool of the first three generations of Psychohistorians after Seldon, and by the 5th Century of the Plan a teaching tool at most. (Forward the Foundation)
Development
In his later career, Asimov described some historical (pre-Seldon) origins of psychohistory. In The Robots of DawnThe Robots of Dawn
The Robots of Dawn is a "whodunit" science fiction novel by Isaac Asimov, first published in 1983. It is the third novel in Asimov's Robot series.It was nominated for both the Hugo and Locus Awards in 1984.- Plot summary :...
(1983), which takes place thousands of years before Foundation
Foundation (novel)
Foundation is the first book in Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy . Foundation is a collection of five short stories, which were first published together as a book by Gnome Press in 1951...
(1951), he describes roboticist Han Fastolfe's attempts to create the science based on careful observation of others, particularly of his daughter Vasilia. Prelude to Foundation
Prelude to Foundation
Prelude to Foundation is a Locus Award nominated 1988 novel written by Isaac Asimov. It is one of two prequels to the Foundation Series. For the first time, Asimov chronicles the fictional life of Hari Seldon, the man who invented psychohistory and the intellectual hero of the series.-Plot...
(1988) suggests that one of Fastolfe's robots, R. Daneel Olivaw
R. Daneel Olivaw
R. Daneel Olivaw is a fictional robot created by Isaac Asimov. The "R" initial in his name stands for "robot," a naming convention in Asimov's future society...
, manipulated Seldon into practical application of this science.
Limitations
The fact that Seldon established a Second Foundation of mental-science adepts to oversee his Seldon PlanSeldon Plan
The Seldon Plan is the central theme of Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series of stories and novels.-Psychohistory:According to Asimov's novels, Hari Seldon devised the Seldon Plan using a mathematical analysis he originally developed and called psychohistory...
might suggest that even Seldon himself had doubts about the ultimate ability of a purely mathematical approach to predicting historical processes, and that he recognized that the development of psychic skills, such as those used by the Mule
Mule (Foundation)
The Mule is a fictional character from Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. One of the greatest conquerors the galaxy has ever seen, he is a mentalic who has the ability to reach into the minds of others and "adjust" their emotions, individually or en masse, using this capability to forcibly enlist...
, had the ability to invalidate the assumptions underlying his models, though he did not (and could not) predict the appearance of the Mule himself. The Seldon methodology might therefore only work at a certain level of species-development, and would over time become less useful.
Psychohistory has one basic, underlying limitation which Asimov postulated for the first time on literally the last page of the final book in the Foundation series: psychohistory only functions in a galaxy populated only by humans. In Asimov's Foundation series, humans form the only sentient race that developed in the entire Milky Way
Milky Way
The Milky Way is the galaxy that contains the Solar System. This name derives from its appearance as a dim un-resolved "milky" glowing band arching across the night sky...
Galaxy. Seldon developed psychohistory to predict the actions of large groups of humans. Even robots technically fall under the umbrella of psychohistory, because humans built them, and they thus represent more or less a human "action", or at least, possess a thought-framework similar enough to that of their human creators that psychohistory can predict their actions. However, psychohistory cannot predict the actions of a sentient alien race; their psychology may differ so much from that of humans that normal psychohistory cannot understand or predict their actions.
The end of the series offered two possibilities:
- sentient races actually very rarely develop, such that only humans evolved in the Milky Way Galaxy, and in most other galaxies, it appears probable (given this assumption) that only one sentient race would develop. However, statistically two or more alien races might evolve in the same galaxy, leading them into inevitable conflict. The fighting in this other galaxy would only end when one race emerged the victor, and after the prolonged conflict with other races, would have developed an aggressive and expansionist mindset. In contrast, humans had never encountered another sentient species in the Milky Way Galaxy, so they never felt greatly compelled to expand to other galaxies, but instead to fight other humans over control of the Milky Way. Eventually, such an aggressive alien race would expand from galaxy to galaxy, and eventually try to invade the Milky Way Galaxy.
- through genetic engineering, subsets of humanity could alter themselves so significantly from baseline humans that they could for all intents and purposes be considered "aliens". Specifically exemplifying this theory we find Asimov's Solarians: humans evolved from an old SpacerSpacer (Asimov)In Isaac Asimov's Foundation/Empire/Robot series, the Spacers were the first humans to emigrate to space. About a millennium thereafter, they severed political ties with Earth, and embraced low population growth and extreme longevity as a means for a high standard of living, in combination with...
world who had genetically modified themselves into hermaphroditeHermaphroditeIn biology, a hermaphrodite is an organism that has reproductive organs normally associated with both male and female sexes.Many taxonomic groups of animals do not have separate sexes. In these groups, hermaphroditism is a normal condition, enabling a form of sexual reproduction in which both...
s with telekinetic mental powers.
Asimov on psychohistory
On September 25, 1987, Asimov gave an interview to Terry GrossTerry Gross
Terry Gross is the host and co-executive producer of Fresh Air, an interview format radio show produced by WHYY-FM in Philadelphia and distributed throughout the United States by National Public Radio....
on her National Public Radio program, Fresh Air
Fresh Air
Fresh Air is an American radio talk show broadcast on National Public Radio stations across the United States. The show is produced by WHYY-FM in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Its longtime host is Terry Gross. , the show was syndicated to 450 stations and claimed 4.5 million listeners. The show...
.
In it, Gross asked him about psychohistory:
- Gross: "What did you have in mind when you coined the term and the concept?"
- Asimov: "Well, I wanted to write a short story about the fall of the Galactic Empire. I had just finished reading the Decline and Fall of the Roman EmpireThe History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman EmpireThe History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire is a non-fiction history book written by English historian Edward Gibbon and published in six volumes. Volume I was published in 1776, and went through six printings. Volumes II and III were published in 1781; volumes IV, V, VI in 1788–89...
[for] the second time, and I thought I might as well adapt it on a much larger scale to the Galactic Empire and get a story out of it. And my editor John CampbellJohn W. CampbellJohn Wood Campbell, Jr. was an influential figure in American science fiction. As editor of Astounding Science Fiction , from late 1937 until his death, he is generally credited with shaping the so-called Golden Age of Science Fiction.Isaac Asimov called Campbell "the most powerful force in...
was much taken with the idea, and said he didn't want it wasted on a short story. He wanted an open-ended series so it lasts forever, perhaps. And so I started doing that. In order to keep the story going from story to story, I was essentially writing future history, and I had to make it sufficiently different from modern history to give it that science fictional touch. And so I assumed that the time would come when there would be a science in which things could be predicted on a probabilistic or statistical basis."
- Gross: "Do you think that would be good if there really was such a science?"
- Asimov: "Well, I can't help but think it would be good, except that in my stories, I always have opposing views. In other words, people argue all possible... all possible... ways of looking at psychohistory and deciding whether it is good or bad. So you can't really tell. I happen to feel sort of on the optimistic side. I think if we can somehow get across some of the problems that face us now, humanity has a glorious future, and that if we could use the tenets of psychohistory to guide ourselves we might avoid a great many troubles. But on the other hand, it might create troubles. It's impossible to tell in advance."
Asimovian psychohistory and similar concepts in other fiction
- Asimov's ideas figure prominently in Donald KingsburyDonald KingsburyDonald MacDonald Kingsbury is an American–Canadian science fiction author. Kingsbury taught mathematics at McGill University, Montreal, from 1956 until his retirement in 1986.- Books :...
's novel Psychohistorical CrisisPsychohistorical CrisisPsychohistorical Crisis is a science fiction novel by Donald Kingsbury, published by Tor Books in 2001. An expansion of his 1995 novella "Historical Crisis", it is a re-imagining of the world of Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy, set after the establishment of the Second Empire.Review by Peter...
, a re-imagining of the world of Isaac Asimov's Foundation trilogy, set after the establishment of the Second Empire.
- In Fantastic FourFantastic FourThe Fantastic Four is a fictional superhero team appearing in comic books published by Marvel Comics. The group debuted in The Fantastic Four #1 , which helped to usher in a new level of realism in the medium...
#542, Mister FantasticMister FantasticMr. Fantastic is a fictional character, a Marvel Comics superhero and a member of the Fantastic Four. Created by writer Stan Lee and artist/co-plotter Jack Kirby, he first appeared in Fantastic Four #1 ....
, involved in the Marvel UniverseMarvel UniverseThe Marvel Universe is the shared fictional universe where most comic book titles and other media published by Marvel Entertainment take place, including those featuring Marvel's most familiar characters, such as Spider-Man, the Hulk, the X-Men, and the Avengers.The Marvel Universe is further...
's Civil WarCivil War (comics)Civil War is a 2006-2007 Marvel Comics crossover storyline built around a self-titled seven-issue limited series written by Mark Millar and penciled by Steve McNiven, which ran through various other titles published by Marvel at the time...
event, reveals his real reason for supporting the superhero registration actRegistration Acts (comics)The Registration Acts—the Mutant Registration Act and Superhuman Registration Act —are fictional legislative bills that have been plot points used in various comic books published by Marvel Comics which, when passed into law, enforce the mandatory registration of superpowered individuals with...
which prompted the Civil War — his development of a working version of Isaac Asimov's fictional psychohistory-concept. Mister Fantastic's application of this science indicates to him that billion1000000000 (number)1,000,000,000 is the natural number following 999,999,999 and preceding 1,000,000,001.In scientific notation, it is written as 109....
s will die in escalating conflicts unless the act becomes law.
- In Ghost Rider 2099Ghost Rider 2099Ghost Rider 2099 is a comic book series that was published by Marvel Comics, under the Marvel 2099 imprint, from 1994 to 1996.The series is set in the year 2099, in a dystopian possible future of the Marvel Universe, and features Kenshiro "Zero" Cochrane, a hacker who was killed but resurrected as...
#1, a group of AIs predict that human society (and therefore the global network the AIs exist in) will crash in 2113. One of them mentions that Asimov conceived the idea of such a mathematical model.
- The concept of psychohistory also appears in the Legend of the Galactic HeroesLegend of the Galactic Heroesis a series of science fiction novels by Yoshiki Tanaka. An anime adaptation of the novels by Artland ran from 1988 to 2000 as well as a manga based on the novels, with art by Katsumi Michihara...
(銀河英雄伝説, Ginga Eiyū Densetsu) by Yoshiki TanakaYoshiki TanakaDr. Yoshiki Tanaka is a Japanese novelist. He was born in Kumamoto Prefecture and took his doctorate degree in Japanese Language and Literature in the Graduate School of Gakushūin University in Tokyo....
.
- The TechnocoreTechnocoreThe TechnoCore is the 'race' of post-singularity Artificial Intelligences in Dan Simmons' sci-fi novel Hyperion. The Core consists of a grid of AIs hidden throughout human space, residing in "datasphere" networks, hidden underground computers, and other hidden locations...
, the AI civilisation in Dan Simmons's novel Hyperion, is capable of statistically predicting future events to a very high degree of accuracy.
- The novel House of SunsHouse of SunsHouse of Suns is a 2008 science fiction novel by Welsh author Alastair Reynolds . He announced the title on June 7, 2007, when he was about halfway through writing it...
by Alastair ReynoldsAlastair ReynoldsAlastair Preston Reynolds is a British science fiction author. He specialises in dark hard science fiction and space opera. He spent his early years in Cornwall, moved back to Wales before going to Newcastle, where he read physics and astronomy. Afterwards, he earned a PhD from St Andrews, Scotland...
features a device called the "Universal Actuary", which aims to predict the future of civilisations in a manner very similar to psychohistory. As the limits of slower than light travel prevent any interstellar civilisations from lasting very long, one of its most important uses is to determine how much longer a given civilisation will last.
- In The Country of the Blind, Michael F. Flynn creates competing groups of psychohistorians.
- In the 'Shattered Glass' universe of 'Transformers: Timelines', Megatron uses math to predict the future in what is likely a reference to Asimov.
- In the episode Statistical Probabilities of Star Trek: Deep Space NineStar Trek: Deep Space NineStar Trek: Deep Space Nine is a science fiction television series set in the Star Trek universe...
where a think tank uses maths to predict the future in a manner likely to be a reference to Asimov.
- In the novel Preserver (Star Trek)Preserver (Star Trek)Preserver is a novel by William Shatner, co-written with Judith and Garfield Reeves-Stevens, based upon the television series Star Trek. The novel was released in 2000 in hardcover format. This is the conclusion of a trilogy that began with Spectre and Dark Victory.-Synopsis:Kirk's Mirror Universe...
by William ShatnerWilliam ShatnerWilliam Alan Shatner is a Canadian actor, musician, recording artist, and author. He gained worldwide fame and became a cultural icon for his portrayal of James T...
the science of psychohistory is used, and mentioned by name, by scholars at outpost Memory Alpha. Memory Alpha was shown in the Star Trek: Original Series episode The Lights of Zetar, although psychohistory was never mentioned in the episode.
Beyond fiction
Polymath Adolphe QueteletAdolphe Quetelet
Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet was a Belgian astronomer, mathematician, statistician and sociologist. He founded and directed the Brussels Observatory and was influential in introducing statistical methods to the social sciences...
developed in the 19th century what he called "social physics". Quetelet studied the statistical laws underlying the behaviour of what he called "average man".
Some individuals and groups, inspired by Asimov's psychohistory, seriously explore the possibility of a working psychohistory not unlike the one imagined by Asimov — a statistical study of history that could help in the formulation of some "theory of history" and perhaps become a tool of historical prediction.
Complexity theory, an offshoot of chaos mathematics theory, explored by Stuart Kauffman in his books "At Home in the Universe" and "Redefining the Sacred" cover the concept of statistical modeling of sociological evolutions. The concept was also explored in "Order Out of Chaos" by Ilya Prigogine.
Another theory that has similarities to Psychohistory is "Generational Dynamics" proposed by John J. Xenakis, where he proposes, "Generational Dynamics is a historical methodology that analyzes historical events through the flow of generations, and uses the analysis to forecast future events by comparing today's generational attitudes to those of the past". Essentially, generations immediately after a major crisis event (stock market crash, civil war, world war) will be unwilling to live through such events again and will be risk-averse. Generations after them may well be aware of previous crisis events, but will be more risk-tolerant, as they have not been exposed to the crisis themselves. Xenakis states that this allows one to predict future crisis events by analyzing the current generation's outlooks.
For similar ideas see Peter Turchin
Peter Turchin
Peter Turchin is a Russian-American scientist, specializing in population biology and "cliodynamics" — mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies.- Biography :...
's WAR AND PEACE AND WAR: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations.
Also cliodynamics
Cliodynamics
thumb|Clio—detail from [[The Art of Painting|The Allegory of Painting]] by [[Johannes Vermeer]]Cliodynamics is a new multidisciplinary area of research focused at mathematical modeling of historical dynamics.-Origins:The term was originally coined by Peter...
: "the mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies."
Nathan Eagle and Alex Pentland (among others) have developed useful techniques for predicting human behavior through statistical analysis of smartphone data.
At the 67th science-fiction world convention in Montreal, Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate in Economics, mentioned Hari Seldon, a central character in Foundation who was a psycohistorian, as his inspiration to study Economics since it's the closest thing to Psycohistory, according to P. Krugman.
In role-playing games
Psychohistory appears in the TravellerTraveller (role-playing game)
Traveller is a series of related science fiction role-playing games, the first published in 1977 by Game Designers' Workshop and subsequent editions by various companies remaining in print to this day. The game was inspired from such classic science fiction stories as the Dumarest saga series by...
science-fiction role-playing game
Role-playing game
A role-playing game is a game in which players assume the roles of characters in a fictional setting. Players take responsibility for acting out these roles within a narrative, either through literal acting, or through a process of structured decision-making or character development...
, released in 1977. The alien race known as the Hivers use extensive manipulation
Memetic engineering
Memetic engineering is a term developed and coined by Leveious Rolando, John Sokol, and Gibran Burchett while they researched and observed the behavior of people after being purposely exposed to certain memetic themes...
of other cultures based on psychohistorical data to achieve their own ends. Rumors ascribe the assassination of the Third Imperium's Emperor Strephon to a Hiver manipulation based on psychohistorical data indicating the eventual fall of the Third Imperium. Humans in the setting have also attempted to use psychohistory, but with less skill or success; the Psionic Suppressions (which turned public opinion within the human Imperium against those with paranormal mental abilities, forcing them to go into hiding) resulted, unknown to most, from an experiment in psychohistory that got out of control and went much farther than the experimenters intended.
Literary influences
Some literary critics have described Asimov's psychohistory as a reformulation, either for better or worse, of Karl MarxKarl Marx
Karl Heinrich Marx was a German philosopher, economist, sociologist, historian, journalist, and revolutionary socialist. His ideas played a significant role in the development of social science and the socialist political movement...
's theory of history (historical materialism
Historical materialism
Historical materialism is a methodological approach to the study of society, economics, and history, first articulated by Karl Marx as "the materialist conception of history". Historical materialism looks for the causes of developments and changes in human society in the means by which humans...
), though Asimov denied any direct influence. Arguably, Asimov's psychohistory departs significantly from Marx's general theory of history based on modes of production (as distinct from Marx's model of the capitalist economy, where "natural laws" work themselves out with "iron necessity") in that psychohistory is predictive (if only in the sense of involving precisely stated probabilities), and in that psychohistory is extrapolated from individual psychology and even from physics.
Psychohistory also has echoes of modernization theory
Modernization theory
Modernization theory is a theory used to explain the process of modernization within societies. The theory looks at the internal factors of a country while assuming that, with assistance, "traditional" countries can be brought to development in the same manner more developed countries have...
and of work in the social sciences that by the 1960s would lead to attempts at large-scale social prediction and control such as Project Camelot
Project Camelot
Project Camelot was a social science research project of the United States Army that started in 1964 and was cancelled after congressional hearings in 1965. The goal of the project was to assess the causes of conflict between national groups, to anticipate social breakdown and provide eventual...
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See also
- PsychohistoryPsychohistoryPsychohistory is the study of the psychological motivations of historical events. It attempts to combine the insights of psychotherapy with the research methodology of the social sciences to understand the emotional origin of the social and political behavior of groups and nations, past and present...
, the real (non-fictional) study of the psychological motivation of groups in historical and current events - MacroeconomicsMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of the whole economy. This includes a national, regional, or global economy...
, the real economics sub-field that considers aggregate behavior - Economic historyEconomic historyEconomic history is the study of economies or economic phenomena in the past. Analysis in economic history is undertaken using a combination of historical methods, statistical methods and by applying economic theory to historical situations and institutions...
, the real economics sub-field trying to discover long-run trends in human behaviour (the equations of the Prime Radiant) - PraxeologyPraxeologyPraxeology is the study of human action. Praxeology rejects the empirical methods of the natural sciences for the study of human action, because the observation of how humans act in simple situations cannot predict how they will act in complex situations...
, the study of human action - RobopsychologyRobopsychologyRobopsychology is the study of the personalities of intelligent machines. The term and the concept were popularised by Isaac Asimov in the short stories collected in I, Robot, which featured robopsychologist Dr...
, the fictional study of the personalities of intelligent machines - Quantitative psychologyQuantitative psychologyResearch in quantitative psychology develops psychological theory in relation to mathematics and statistics. Psychological research requires the elaboration of existing methods and the development of new concepts, so that quantitative psychology requires more than "applications" of statistics and...
, the real psychology sub-field that applies statistical mathematics to psychology - Mathematical sociologyMathematical sociologyMathematical sociology is the usage of mathematics to construct social theories. Mathematical sociology aims to take sociological theory, which is strong in intuitive content but weak from a formal point of view, and to express it in formal terms...
, the real sociology sub-field that applies statistical mathematics and other quantitative approaches such as social network analysis to micro- and macro-social phenomena - CliodynamicsCliodynamicsthumb|Clio—detail from [[The Art of Painting|The Allegory of Painting]] by [[Johannes Vermeer]]Cliodynamics is a new multidisciplinary area of research focused at mathematical modeling of historical dynamics.-Origins:The term was originally coined by Peter...
, the real area of research focused on mathematical modeling of historical dynamics - SocieticsHarry HarrisonHarry Harrison is an American science fiction author best known for his character the Stainless Steel Rat and the novel Make Room! Make Room! , the basis for the film Soylent Green...
, the fictional study of "the interaction of individuals in a culture, the interaction of the group generated by these individuals, the equations derived therefrom, and the application of these equations to control one or more factors of this same culture"