Psephology
Encyclopedia
Psephology icon is that branch of political science
which deals with the study and scientific analysis of election
s. Psephology uses historical precinct voting
data, public opinion poll
s, campaign finance
information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in the United Kingdom
in 1952 by historian R. B. McCallum
to describe the scientific analysis of past elections.
measures the disproportionality of an election.
and Malcolm Mackerras
(who devised the Mackerras Pendulum
); and Americans Michael Barone, who has published The Almanac of American Politics biennially since 1972, Nate Silver
whose website FiveThirtyEight tracks US voting trends, and David Butler and Robert McKenzie, who co-developed the swingometer
.
Political science
Political Science is a social science discipline concerned with the study of the state, government and politics. Aristotle defined it as the study of the state. It deals extensively with the theory and practice of politics, and the analysis of political systems and political behavior...
which deals with the study and scientific analysis of election
Election
An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy operates since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the...
s. Psephology uses historical precinct voting
Voting
Voting is a method for a group such as a meeting or an electorate to make a decision or express an opinion—often following discussions, debates, or election campaigns. It is often found in democracies and republics.- Reasons for voting :...
data, public opinion poll
Opinion poll
An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence...
s, campaign finance
Campaign finance
Campaign finance refers to all funds that are raised and spent in order to promote candidates, parties or policies in some sort of electoral contest. In modern democracies such funds are not necessarily devoted to election campaigns. Issue campaigns in referendums, party activities and party...
information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
in 1952 by historian R. B. McCallum
R. B. McCallum
R. B. McCallum was a British historian. He was a fellow of Pembroke College,Oxford, where he taught Modern History and Politics. and was member of Tolkien's Inklings....
to describe the scientific analysis of past elections.
Applications
Psephology also has various applications specifically in analysing the results of election returns for current indicators, as opposed to predictive purposes. For instance, the Gallagher IndexGallagher Index
The Gallagher Index is used to measure the disproportionality of an electoral outcome, that is the difference between the percentage of votes received and the percentage of seats a party gets in the resulting legislature. This is especially useful for comparing proportionality across electoral...
measures the disproportionality of an election.
Notable psephologists
Notable psephologists include Australians Antony GreenAntony Green
Antony John Green is an Australian psephologist and commentator for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.-Early years and background:...
and Malcolm Mackerras
Malcolm Mackerras
Malcolm Hugh Mackerras AO is an Australian psephologist and commentator and lecturer on Australian and American politics.-Education and works:...
(who devised the Mackerras Pendulum
Mackerras Pendulum
The Mackerras Pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of...
); and Americans Michael Barone, who has published The Almanac of American Politics biennially since 1972, Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver is an American statistician, psephologist, and writer. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball...
whose website FiveThirtyEight tracks US voting trends, and David Butler and Robert McKenzie, who co-developed the swingometer
Swingometer
The swingometer is a graphics device that shows the swing from one party to another on British election results programmes. It was invented by Peter Milne, and later refined by David Butler and Robert McKenzie....
.
See also
- British Polling CouncilBritish Polling CouncilThe British Polling Council is an association of market research companies whose opinion polls are regularly published or broadcast in media in the United Kingdom...
- Electoral CalculusElectoral CalculusElectoral Calculus is a psephological web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It was developed by Martin Baxter and employs scientific techniques on data about Britain's electoral geography....
- PsepholographPsepholographA psepholograph is a graphical representation of political opinion poll results showing electorate-by-electorate results, rather than reporting polls in percentages of the survey total...
- Swing (politics)Swing (politics)An electoral swing analysis shows the extent of change in voter support from one election to another. It is an indicator of voter support for individual candidates or political parties, or voter preference between two or more candidates or parties...
- VotingVotingVoting is a method for a group such as a meeting or an electorate to make a decision or express an opinion—often following discussions, debates, or election campaigns. It is often found in democracies and republics.- Reasons for voting :...
- List of democracy and elections-related topics
External links
- ACE Project – Comprehensive information resource for Electoral Design and Administration. Includes much comparative data on elections and electoral systems
- 'Psephos' Dr. Adam Carr's Elections Archive
- International IDEA – International Organisation providing (amongst other things) statistical analysis of elections and electoral systems