Projections of population growth
Encyclopedia
According to current projections of population growth
, the world population of humans will continue to grow until at least 2050, with the estimated population, based on current growth trends, to reach 9 billion in 2040, and some predictions putting the population in 2050 as high as 11 billion.
World population passed the 7 billion mark on October 31, 2011. According to the United Nations
' World Population Prospects report, the world population
is currently growing by approximately 74 million people per year. Current United Nations predictions estimate that the world population will reach 9.0 billion around 2050, assuming a decrease in average fertility rate from 2.5 down to 2.0.
Almost all growth will take place in the less developed regions, where today's 5.3 billion population of underdeveloped countries is expected to increase to 7.8 billion in 2050. By contrast, the population of the more developed regions will remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion. An exception is the United States population, which is expected to increase 44% from 305 million in 2008 to 439 million in 2050. In 2000–2005, the average world fertility was 2.65 children per woman, about half the level in 1950–1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.05 children per woman.
During 2005–2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population increase: India
, Pakistan
, Nigeria
, Democratic Republic of the Congo
, Bangladesh
, Uganda
, United States
, Ethiopia
, and China
, listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth. China would be higher still in this list were it not for its One Child Policy. Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 46 years in 1950–1955 to 65 years in 2000–2005, is expected to keep rising to reach 75 years in 2045–2050. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years in 2045–2050. The population of 51 countries or areas, including Germany, Italy, Japan and most of the successor States of the former Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005.
During 2005–2050, the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 98 million. Because deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005–2050, population growth in those regions will largely be due to international migration. In 2000–2005, net migration in 28 countries either prevented population decline
or doubled at least the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. These countries include Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom.
Birth rates are now falling in a small percentage of developing countries
, while the actual populations in many developed countries
would fall without immigration
. By 2050 (Medium variant), India will have 1.6 billion people, China 1.4 billion, United States 439 million, Pakistan 309 million, Indonesia
280 million, Nigeria
259 million, Bangladesh
258 million, Brazil
245 million, Democratic Republic of the Congo
189 million, Ethiopia
185 million, Philippines
141 million, Mexico 132 million, Egypt
125 million, Vietnam
120 million, Russia 109 million, Japan 103 million, Iran
100 million, Turkey
99 million, Uganda
93 million, Tanzania
85 million, Kenya
85 million and United Kingdom 80 million.
2050
Walter Greiling
projected in the 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion, in the 21st century, and then stop to grow, after a readjustment of the Third World
and a sanitation of the tropics
. Recent extrapolations from available figures for population growth show that the population of Earth will stop increasing around 2070. However, the U.N. projects the world population in 2300 to be about 10 billion, so any growth would be predicted to be slow between 2070 and 2300, but any changes in future birthrates or in projections of future life expectancy due to major medical advances could invalidate these projections.
has calculated, based on current trends, the future population of the world's countries. These figures can easily change as events such as wars, diseases, or dramatic demographic changes would all greatly affect the results. The study projected the world population in 2030 to be 8.321 billion.
Population growth
Population growth is the change in a population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals of any species in a population using "per unit time" for measurement....
, the world population of humans will continue to grow until at least 2050, with the estimated population, based on current growth trends, to reach 9 billion in 2040, and some predictions putting the population in 2050 as high as 11 billion.
World population passed the 7 billion mark on October 31, 2011. According to the United Nations
United Nations
The United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...
' World Population Prospects report, the world population
World population
The world population is the total number of living humans on the planet Earth. As of today, it is estimated to be billion by the United States Census Bureau...
is currently growing by approximately 74 million people per year. Current United Nations predictions estimate that the world population will reach 9.0 billion around 2050, assuming a decrease in average fertility rate from 2.5 down to 2.0.
Almost all growth will take place in the less developed regions, where today's 5.3 billion population of underdeveloped countries is expected to increase to 7.8 billion in 2050. By contrast, the population of the more developed regions will remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion. An exception is the United States population, which is expected to increase 44% from 305 million in 2008 to 439 million in 2050. In 2000–2005, the average world fertility was 2.65 children per woman, about half the level in 1950–1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.05 children per woman.
During 2005–2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population increase: India
India
India , officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous democracy in the world...
, Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan , officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a sovereign state in South Asia. It has a coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is bordered by Afghanistan and Iran in the west, India in the east and China in the far northeast. In the north, Tajikistan...
, Nigeria
Nigeria
Nigeria , officially the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is a federal constitutional republic comprising 36 states and its Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. The country is located in West Africa and shares land borders with the Republic of Benin in the west, Chad and Cameroon in the east, and Niger in...
, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is a state located in Central Africa. It is the second largest country in Africa by area and the eleventh largest in the world...
, Bangladesh
Bangladesh
Bangladesh , officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh is a sovereign state located in South Asia. It is bordered by India on all sides except for a small border with Burma to the far southeast and by the Bay of Bengal to the south...
, Uganda
Uganda
Uganda , officially the Republic of Uganda, is a landlocked country in East Africa. Uganda is also known as the "Pearl of Africa". It is bordered on the east by Kenya, on the north by South Sudan, on the west by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, on the southwest by Rwanda, and on the south by...
, United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
, Ethiopia
Ethiopia
Ethiopia , officially known as the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is a country located in the Horn of Africa. It is the second-most populous nation in Africa, with over 82 million inhabitants, and the tenth-largest by area, occupying 1,100,000 km2...
, and China
China
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
, listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth. China would be higher still in this list were it not for its One Child Policy. Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 46 years in 1950–1955 to 65 years in 2000–2005, is expected to keep rising to reach 75 years in 2045–2050. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years in 2045–2050. The population of 51 countries or areas, including Germany, Italy, Japan and most of the successor States of the former Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005.
During 2005–2050, the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 98 million. Because deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005–2050, population growth in those regions will largely be due to international migration. In 2000–2005, net migration in 28 countries either prevented population decline
Population decline
Population decline can refer to the decline in population of any organism, but this article refers to population decline in humans. It is a term usually used to describe any great reduction in a human population...
or doubled at least the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. These countries include Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom.
Birth rates are now falling in a small percentage of developing countries
Developing country
A developing country, also known as a less-developed country, is a nation with a low level of material well-being. Since no single definition of the term developing country is recognized internationally, the levels of development may vary widely within so-called developing countries...
, while the actual populations in many developed countries
Developed country
A developed country is a country that has a high level of development according to some criteria. Which criteria, and which countries are classified as being developed, is a contentious issue...
would fall without immigration
Immigration
Immigration is the act of foreigners passing or coming into a country for the purpose of permanent residence...
. By 2050 (Medium variant), India will have 1.6 billion people, China 1.4 billion, United States 439 million, Pakistan 309 million, Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia , officially the Republic of Indonesia , is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania. Indonesia is an archipelago comprising approximately 13,000 islands. It has 33 provinces with over 238 million people, and is the world's fourth most populous country. Indonesia is a republic, with an...
280 million, Nigeria
Nigeria
Nigeria , officially the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is a federal constitutional republic comprising 36 states and its Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. The country is located in West Africa and shares land borders with the Republic of Benin in the west, Chad and Cameroon in the east, and Niger in...
259 million, Bangladesh
Bangladesh
Bangladesh , officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh is a sovereign state located in South Asia. It is bordered by India on all sides except for a small border with Burma to the far southeast and by the Bay of Bengal to the south...
258 million, Brazil
Brazil
Brazil , officially the Federative Republic of Brazil , is the largest country in South America. It is the world's fifth largest country, both by geographical area and by population with over 192 million people...
245 million, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is a state located in Central Africa. It is the second largest country in Africa by area and the eleventh largest in the world...
189 million, Ethiopia
Ethiopia
Ethiopia , officially known as the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is a country located in the Horn of Africa. It is the second-most populous nation in Africa, with over 82 million inhabitants, and the tenth-largest by area, occupying 1,100,000 km2...
185 million, Philippines
Philippines
The Philippines , officially known as the Republic of the Philippines , is a country in Southeast Asia in the western Pacific Ocean. To its north across the Luzon Strait lies Taiwan. West across the South China Sea sits Vietnam...
141 million, Mexico 132 million, Egypt
Egypt
Egypt , officially the Arab Republic of Egypt, Arabic: , is a country mainly in North Africa, with the Sinai Peninsula forming a land bridge in Southwest Asia. Egypt is thus a transcontinental country, and a major power in Africa, the Mediterranean Basin, the Middle East and the Muslim world...
125 million, Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam – sometimes spelled Viet Nam , officially the Socialist Republic of Vietnam – is the easternmost country on the Indochina Peninsula in Southeast Asia. It is bordered by China to the north, Laos to the northwest, Cambodia to the southwest, and the South China Sea –...
120 million, Russia 109 million, Japan 103 million, Iran
Iran
Iran , officially the Islamic Republic of Iran , is a country in Southern and Western Asia. The name "Iran" has been in use natively since the Sassanian era and came into use internationally in 1935, before which the country was known to the Western world as Persia...
100 million, Turkey
Turkey
Turkey , known officially as the Republic of Turkey , is a Eurasian country located in Western Asia and in East Thrace in Southeastern Europe...
99 million, Uganda
Uganda
Uganda , officially the Republic of Uganda, is a landlocked country in East Africa. Uganda is also known as the "Pearl of Africa". It is bordered on the east by Kenya, on the north by South Sudan, on the west by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, on the southwest by Rwanda, and on the south by...
93 million, Tanzania
Tanzania
The United Republic of Tanzania is a country in East Africa bordered by Kenya and Uganda to the north, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the west, and Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique to the south. The country's eastern borders lie on the Indian Ocean.Tanzania is a state...
85 million, Kenya
Kenya
Kenya , officially known as the Republic of Kenya, is a country in East Africa that lies on the equator, with the Indian Ocean to its south-east...
85 million and United Kingdom 80 million.
2050
- Africa – 1.9 billion
- Asia – 5.2 billion
- Europe – 674 million
- Latin America & Caribbean – 765 million
- North America – 448 million
Walter Greiling
Walter Greiling
Walter Greiling was a German chemist and futurologist. He sometimes used the pseudonym Walt Grey.- Life :...
projected in the 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion, in the 21st century, and then stop to grow, after a readjustment of the Third World
Third World
The term Third World arose during the Cold War to define countries that remained non-aligned with either capitalism and NATO , or communism and the Soviet Union...
and a sanitation of the tropics
Tropics
The tropics is a region of the Earth surrounding the Equator. It is limited in latitude by the Tropic of Cancer in the northern hemisphere at approximately N and the Tropic of Capricorn in the southern hemisphere at S; these latitudes correspond to the axial tilt of the Earth...
. Recent extrapolations from available figures for population growth show that the population of Earth will stop increasing around 2070. However, the U.N. projects the world population in 2300 to be about 10 billion, so any growth would be predicted to be slow between 2070 and 2300, but any changes in future birthrates or in projections of future life expectancy due to major medical advances could invalidate these projections.
Most populous nations by 2030
The United Nations Population FundUnited Nations Population Fund
The United Nations Population Fund is a UN organization. The work of the UNFPA involves promotion of the right of every woman, man and child to enjoy a life of health and equal opportunity. This is done through major national and demographic surveys and with population censuses...
has calculated, based on current trends, the future population of the world's countries. These figures can easily change as events such as wars, diseases, or dramatic demographic changes would all greatly affect the results. The study projected the world population in 2030 to be 8.321 billion.
| Projected Rank 2030 |
Current Rank 2010 |
Change | Country demographics | Projected Population 2030 (thousands) |
Population 2010 (thousands) |
Population change (per cent) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | 8,321,380 | 6,895,889 | +20.7% | |
| 1 | 2 | +1 |  Demographics of IndiaDemographics of India The demographics of India are inclusive of the second most populous country in the world, with over 1.21 billion people , more than a sixth of the world's population. Already containing 17.5% of the world's population, India is projected to be the world's most populous country by 2025, surpassing... |
1,523,482 | 1,224,614 | +24.4% |
| 2 | 1 | −1 |  Demographics of ChinaDemographics of China This article is about the demographic features of the population of China, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
1,393,076 | 1,341,335 | +3.9% |
| 3 | 3 | = |  Demographics of United States |
361,680 | 310,384 | +16.5% |
| 4 | 4 | = |  Demographics of IndonesiaDemographics of Indonesia The population of Indonesia according to the 2010 national census is 237.6 million, with 58% living on the island of Java, the world's most populous island.... |
279,659 | 239,871 | +16.6% |
| 5 | 7 | +2 |  Demographics of NigeriaDemographics of Nigeria This article is about the demographic features of the population of Nigeria, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
257,815 | 158,423 | +62.7% |
| 6 | 6 | = |  Demographics of PakistanDemographics of Pakistan This article is about the demographic features of the population of Pakistan, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
234,432 | 173,593 | +35.0% |
| 7 | 5 | −2 |  Demographics of BrazilDemographics of Brazil Brazils population is very diverse, comprising many races and ethnic groups. In general, Brazilians trace their origins from four sources: Amerindians, Europeans, Africans and Asians.... |
220 492 | 194 946 | +13.1% |
| 8 | 8 | = |  Demographics of BangladeshDemographics of Bangladesh This article is about the demographic features of the population of Bangladesh, including population density, ethnicity, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
181,863 | 148,692 | +22.3% |
| 9 | 9 | = |  Demographics of RussiaDemographics of Russia The demographics of Russia is about the demographic features of the population of the Russian Federation, including population growth, population density, ethnic composition, education level, health, economic status, and other aspects of the population.... |
136,429 | 142,958 | −4.6% |
| 10 | 11 | +1 |  Demographics of MexicoDemographics of Mexico With a population 112,336,538 in 2010, Mexico is the most populous Spanish-speaking country in the world, the second-most populous country in Latin America after Portuguese-speaking Brazil, and the second in North America, after the United States. Throughout most of the twentieth century Mexico's... |
135,398 | 113,423 | +19.4% |