Probabilistic voting theory
Encyclopedia
The probabilistic voting theory, also known as the probabilistic voting model, is a voting theory developed by professor Melvin Hinich, which has gradually replaced the median voter theory
, thanks to its ability to find an equilibrium in a multi-dimensional space. This theory represents a break-through in political economy
literature and can be used to solve problems that were impossible to solve before. In fact, unlike the median voter theorem, what drives the equilibrium policy is both the numerosity and the density of social groups and not the median position of voters on a preference scale. This difference explains why social groups which have a great homogeneity of preferences are more politically powerful than those whose preferences are dispersed.
and public economics are the main fields where the probabilistic voting theory is applied. In particular, it was used to explain public expenditure programmes (Persson & Tabellini, 2000), social security systems (Profeta, 2002) and taxation (Hettich & Winer, 1999 and Canegrati, 2007).
Median voter theory
The median voter theory, also known as the median voter theorem or Black's theorem, is a famous voting theorem. It posits that in a majority election, if voter policy preferences can be represented as a point along a single dimension, if all voters vote deterministically for the politician who...
, thanks to its ability to find an equilibrium in a multi-dimensional space. This theory represents a break-through in political economy
Political economy
Political economy originally was the term for studying production, buying, and selling, and their relations with law, custom, and government, as well as with the distribution of national income and wealth, including through the budget process. Political economy originated in moral philosophy...
literature and can be used to solve problems that were impossible to solve before. In fact, unlike the median voter theorem, what drives the equilibrium policy is both the numerosity and the density of social groups and not the median position of voters on a preference scale. This difference explains why social groups which have a great homogeneity of preferences are more politically powerful than those whose preferences are dispersed.
Applications
Political economyPolitical economy
Political economy originally was the term for studying production, buying, and selling, and their relations with law, custom, and government, as well as with the distribution of national income and wealth, including through the budget process. Political economy originated in moral philosophy...
and public economics are the main fields where the probabilistic voting theory is applied. In particular, it was used to explain public expenditure programmes (Persson & Tabellini, 2000), social security systems (Profeta, 2002) and taxation (Hettich & Winer, 1999 and Canegrati, 2007).