Peak uranium is the point in time that the maximum global
uraniumUranium is a silvery-white metallic chemical element in the actinide series of the periodic table that has the symbol U and atomic number 92. Besides its 92 protons, a uranium nucleus can have between 141 and 146 neutrons. The most common uranium isotopes are U-238 and U-235 . A uranium atom has...
production rate is reached. After that peak, the rate of production enters a terminal decline. While uranium is used in
nuclear weaponA nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission or a combination of fission and fusion...
s, its primary use is for energy generation via
nuclear fissionIn nuclear physics and nuclear chemistry, nuclear fission is a nuclear reaction in which the nucleus of an atom splits into smaller parts, often producing free neutrons and lighter nuclei, which may eventually produce photons...
of
uranium-235Uranium-235 is an isotope of uranium making up about 0.72% of natural uranium. Unlike the predominant isotope uranium-238 it is fissile, i.e. it can sustain fission chain reaction...
isotopeIsotopes are different types of atoms of the same chemical element, each having a different number of neutrons. Correspondingly, isotopes differ in mass number but not in atomic number. The difference in the number of nucleons comes from a difference how many neutrons are in the atomic nucleus...
in a
nuclear power reactorNuclear power is power produced from controlled nuclear reactions. Commercial plants in use to date use nuclear fission reactions....
. Uranium is a finite resource, and therefore considered
non-renewableNon-renewable energy is energy, taken from "finite resources that will eventually dwindle, becoming too expensive or too environmentally damaging to retrieve", as opposed to renewable energy sources , which "are naturally replenished in a relatively short period of time." *Fossil fuels:**Various...
.
M. King HubbertMarion King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory , with important political ramifications. He was often...
created his peak theory in 1956 for a variety of finite resources such as coal, oil, and natural gas. He and others since have argued that if the nuclear fuel cycle can be closed, uranium could become equivalent to other renewables.
BreedingA breeder reactor is a nuclear reactor that generates new fissile or fissionable material at a greater rate than it consumes such material. These reactors were initially considered appealing due to their superior fuel economy; a normal reactor is able to consume less than 1% of the natural...
and
nuclear reprocessingNuclear reprocessing separates components of spent nuclear fuel.Reprocessing serves multiple purposes, whose relative importance has changed over time:*Producing plutonium for nuclear weapons...
potentially would allow the extraction of the largest amount of energy from natural uranium. However, only a small amount of uranium is being bred into plutonium and only a small amount of fissile uranium and plutonium is being recovered from nuclear waste worldwide. Furthermore, the technologies to completely eliminate the waste in the nuclear fuel cycle do not yet exist. Since the nuclear fuel cycle is effectively not closed,
Hubbert peak theoryThe Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve...
applies. The rate of discovery and the rate of production which initially increase must reach a maximum and decline. The rate at which uranium can be bred and the rate at which fuel can be reprocessed is not enough to meet the growing gap between the rate that uranium can be mined and the demand for uranium.
Pessimistic predictions of future high-grade uranium production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred in the 1980s or that a second peak may occur sometime around 2035.
Optimistic predictions claim that the supply is far more than demand and do not predict peak uranium. Also, they do not report changes in the production rate of uranium. Peak uranium is not about
running out of uraniumUranium depletion is the result of extracting and consuming uranium, a finite resource. However, uranium resources may never be fully depleted as the economically-recoverable reserves may be effectively inexhaustible....
, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of uranium.
Hubbert's Peak and Uranium
The peak uranium concept follows from
M. King HubbertMarion King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory , with important political ramifications. He was often...
's peak theory, most commonly associated with
Peak oilPeak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells...
. Hubbert saw oil as a resource which would soon run out, and believed uranium had much more promise as an energy source.
Hubbert believed that
breeder reactorA breeder reactor is a nuclear reactor that generates new fissile or fissionable material at a greater rate than it consumes such material. These reactors were initially considered appealing due to their superior fuel economy; a normal reactor is able to consume less than 1% of the natural...
s and
nuclear reprocessingNuclear reprocessing separates components of spent nuclear fuel.Reprocessing serves multiple purposes, whose relative importance has changed over time:*Producing plutonium for nuclear weapons...
, which were new technologies at the time, would allow uranium to be a power source for a very long time. The technologies Hubbert envisioned are not economically feasible or widely deployed to date.
As a result, the vast majority of uranium is now used in a "once-through" cycle. As for any finite resource, the Hubbert peak theory still applies.
According to the Hubbert Peak Theory, Hubbert's peaks are the points where production of a resource, has reached its maximum, and from then on, the rate of resource production enters a terminal decline. After a Hubbert's peak, the rate of
supplyIn economics, supply is the amount of some product which will be available to customers. Usually, supply is plotted as a supply curve showing the relationship of price to the amount of product businesses are willing to sell.- Supply schedule :...
of a resource no longer fulfills the previous
demandIn economics, demand is the desire to own anything and the ability to pay for it and willigness to pay . The term demand signifies the ability or the willingness to buy a particular commodity at a given point of time...
rate. As a result of the law of
supply and demandSupply and demand is an economic model based on price, utility and quantity in a market. It concludes that in a competitive market, price will function to equalize the quantity demanded by consumers, and the quantity supplied by producers, resulting in an economic equilibrium of price and...
, at this point the market shifts from a buyer's market to a seller's market.
Many countries have hit peak uranium and are not able to supply their own uranium demands any longer and have to import uranium from other countries or abandon nuclear power. Thirteen countries have hit peak and exhausted their uranium resources.
Uranium demand
The world demand for uranium in 1996 was over per year, and that number is expected to increase to to per year by 2025 due to the number of new nuclear power plants coming on line.
According to Cameco Corporation, the demand for uranium is directly linked to the amount of electricity generated by nuclear power plants. Reactor capacity is growing slowly, reactors are being run more productively, with higher capacity factors, and reactor power levels. Improved reactor performance translates into greater uranium consumption.
Nuclear power stations of 1000 megawatt electrical generation capacity (1000 MWe or 1 gigawatt electrical = 1GWe) require around of uranium per year. For example, the United States has 103 operating reactors with an average generation capacity of 950 MWe demanded over of uranium in 2005. As population and industrialization increases, more nuclear power plants will be built. As the number of nuclear power plants increase, so does the demand for uranium.
Another factor to consider is population growth. Electricity consumption is determined in part by economic and population growth.
According to data from the CIA's 2007 World Factbook, the world human population currently is more than 6.6 Billion (July 2007 est.) and it is increasing by 1.167% per year. This means a growth of about 211,000 persons every day. According to the UN, by 2050 it is estimated that the Earth's human population will be 9.07 billion. That's 37% increase from today. 62% of the people will live in Africa, Southern Asia and Eastern Asia. The largest energy-consuming class in the history of earth is being produced in world’s most populated countries, China and India. Both plan massive nuclear energy expansion programs. China intends to build 32 nuclear plants with 40,000 MWe capacity by 2020. By 2050, will deploy 300 or more additional plants. India plans on bringing 20,000 MWe nuclear capacity on line by 2020. By 2050, India will supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power. This is being repeated in dozens of lesser developed countries to meet the needs of their burgeoning middle classes.
As countries get more industrialized and their economy grows, so does the demand for electricity. Nearly 2 billion people across the planet have no electricity. The
World Nuclear AssociationThe World Nuclear Association , formerly the Uranium Institute, is a confederation of companies connected with nuclear power production...
(WNA) believes nuclear energy could reduce the fossil fuel burden of generating the new demand for electricity. The WNA forecasts a 40-percent jump in worldwide electricity demand over the next five years. As countries get more industrialized, the higher their Human Development Index (HDI). The higher the HDI, the higher the electric consumption.
As more fossil fuels are used to supply the growing energy needs of an increasing population, the more greenhouse gases are produced. Some proponents of nuclear power believe that building more nuclear power plants can reduce greenhouse emissions. For example, the Swedish utility
VattenfallVattenfall is a Swedish power company and one of the leading energy producers in Northern Europe. The name Vattenfall is Swedish for waterfall, and is an abbreviation of its original name, Royal Waterfall Board...
studied the full life cycle emissions of different ways to produce electricity, and concluded that nuclear power produced 3.3 g/kWh of carbon dioxide, compared to 400.0 for
natural gasNatural gas is a gas consisting primarily of methane. It is found associated with fossil fuels, in coal beds, as methane clathrates, and is created by methanogenic organisms in marshes, bogs, and landfills...
and 700.0 for
coalCoal is a readily combustible black or brownish-black sedimentary rock normally occurring in rock strata in layers or veins called coal beds. The harder forms, such as anthracite coal, can be regarded as metamorphic rock because of later exposure to elevated temperature and pressure...
. Building more nuclear plants increases the demand for uranium.
As world oil is expected to peak early this century, alternatives for gasoline and diesel for powering transportation are being sought. One of the promising solutions are hybrid and electric vehicles. Some experts believe that these vehicles will require 160 new power plants. Others believe none. The true figure lies somewhere between.
As countries are not able to supply their own needs economically from their own mines have resorted to importing better grades of uranium from elsewhere. For example, owners of U.S. nuclear power reactors bought of uranium in 2006. Out of that 84%, or , were imported from foreign suppliers, according to the Energy Department.
Uranium supply
UraniumUranium is a silvery-white metallic chemical element in the actinide series of the periodic table that has the symbol U and atomic number 92. Besides its 92 protons, a uranium nucleus can have between 141 and 146 neutrons. The most common uranium isotopes are U-238 and U-235 . A uranium atom has...
occurs naturally in many rocks, and even in seawater. However, like other metals, it is seldom sufficiently concentrated to be economically recoverable. Like any resource, uranium cannot be mined at any desired concentration. No matter the technology, at some point it is too costly to mine lower grade ores. One life cycle study argues that below 0.01–0.02% (100-200 ppm) in ore, the energy required to extract and process the ore to supply the fuel, operate reactors and dispose properly comes close to the energy gained by burning the uranium in the reactor. Mining companies consider concentrations greater than 0.075% (750 ppm) as ore, or rock economical to mine.
Uranium Grades
| Source |
Concentration |
| Very high-grade ore - 20% U |
200,000 ppm U |
| High-grade ore - 2% U |
20,000 ppm U |
| Low-grade ore - 0.1% U |
1,000 ppm U |
| Very low-grade ore - 0.01% U |
100 ppm U |
| Granite |
4-5 ppm U |
| Sedimentary rock |
2 ppm U |
| Earth's continental crust (av) |
2.8 ppm U |
| Seawater |
0.003 ppm U |
According to the OECD redbook, the world consumed of uranium in 2002. Of that of was produced from primary sources, with the balance coming from secondary sources, in particular stockpiles of natural and enriched uranium, decommissioned nuclear weapons, the reprocessing of natural and enriched uranium and the re-enrichment of depleted uranium tails.
Production
Peak uranium refers to the peak of the entire planet's uranium production. Like other
Hubbert peaksThe Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve...
, the rate of uranium production on Earth will enter a terminal decline. According to Robert Vance of the OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency, the world production rate of uranium has already reached its peak in 1980, amounting to of U
3O
8 from 22 countries. However, this is not due to lack of production capacity. Historically, uranium mines and mills around the world have operated at about 76% of total production capacity, varying within a range of 57% and 89%. The fact that production has never matched capacity is largely attributable to the uranium industry having to lower output to match demand for primary supply. Slower growth of nuclear power and competition from secondary supply significantly reduced demand for freshly mined uranium, until very recently. Secondary supplies include military and commercial inventories, enriched uranium tails, reprocessed uranium and mixed oxide fuel.
The world's top uranium producers are
CanadaCanada is a country occupying most of northern North America, extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
(28% of world production) and
AustraliaAustralia , officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country in the Southern Hemisphere comprising the continental mainland , the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans...
(23%). Other major producers include
KazakhstanKazakhstan , officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a country situated in Eurasia that is ranked as the ninth largest country in the world. It is also the world's largest landlocked country. Its territory of 2,727,300 km² is greater than Western Europe...
,
RussiaRussia , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia . It is a semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
,
NamibiaNamibia, officially the Republic of Namibia , is a country in Southern Africa whose western border is the Atlantic Ocean. It shares borders with Angola and Zambia to the north, Botswana and Zimbabwe to the east, and South Africa to the south and east...
and
NigerNiger , officially the Republic of Niger is a landlocked country in Western Africa, named after the Niger River. It borders Nigeria and Benin to the south, Burkina Faso and Mali to the west, Algeria and Libya to the north and Chad to the east...
. In 1996, the world produced of Uranium. In 2005, the world produced a peak of of uranium, although the production continues not to meet demand. Only 62% of the requirements of power utilities are supplied by mines. The balance comes from inventories held by utilities and other fuel cycle companies, inventories held by governments, used reactor fuel that has been reprocessed, recycled materials from military nuclear programs and uranium in depleted uranium stockpiles. The plutonium from dismantled Cold War nuclear weapon stockpiles is drying up and will end by 2013. The industry is trying to find and develop new uranium mines, mainly in Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan. However, those under development will fill only half the current gap.
Of the ten largest uranium mines in the world (Mc Arthur River, Ranger, Rossing, Kraznokamensk, Olympic Dam, Rabbit Lake, Akouta, Arlit, Beverly, and McClean Lake), by 2020, six will be depleted, two will be in their final stages, one will be upgrading and one will be producing.
World primary mining production fell 5% in 2006 over that in 2005. The biggest producers, Canada and Australia saw falls of 15% and 20%, with only Kazakhstan showing an increase of 21%. This can be explained by two major events that have slowed world uranium production. Canada's Cameco mine at Cigar Lake is the largest, highest-grade uranium mine in the world. In 2006 it flooded, and then flooded again in 2008 (after Cameco had spent $43 million—most of the money set aside—to correct the problem), causing Cameco to push back its earliest start-up date for Cigar Lake to 2011. Also, in March 2007, the market endured another blow when a cyclone struck the Ranger mine in Australia, which produces of uranium a year. The mine's owner, Energy Resources of Australia, declared force majeure on deliveries and said production would be impacted into the second half of 2007. This caused some to speculate that peak uranium has arrived.
Reserves
Reserves are the most readily available resources. Resources that are known to exist and easy to mine are called "Known conventional resources". Resources that are thought to exist but have not been mined are classified under "Undiscovered conventional resources".
The known uranium resources represent a higher level of assured resources than is normal for most minerals. Further exploration and higher prices will certainly, on the basis of present geological knowledge, yield further resources as present ones are used up. There was very little uranium exploration between 1985 and 2005, so the significant increase in exploration effort that we are now seeing could readily double the known economic resources. On the basis of analogies with other metal minerals, a doubling of price from price levels in 2007 could be expected to create about a tenfold increase in measured resources, over time.
Known conventional resources
Known conventional resources are "Reasonably Assured Resources" and "Estimated Additional Resources-I".
In 2006, about 4 million tons of conventional resources were thought to be sufficient at current consumption rates for about six decades (4.06 million tonnes at 65,000 tones per year).
About 96% of the global uranium reserves are found in these ten countries:
AustraliaAustralia , officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country in the Southern Hemisphere comprising the continental mainland , the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans...
,
CanadaCanada is a country occupying most of northern North America, extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
,
KazakhstanKazakhstan , officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a country situated in Eurasia that is ranked as the ninth largest country in the world. It is also the world's largest landlocked country. Its territory of 2,727,300 km² is greater than Western Europe...
,
South AfricaThe Republic of South Africa is a country located at the southern tip of Africa, with a coastline on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. To the north lie Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe, to the east are Mozambique and Swaziland, while Lesotho is an independent country surrounded by South Africa.Modern...
,
BrazilBrazil , officially the Federative Republic of Brazil , is a country in South America. It is the fifth largest country by geographical area, occupying nearly half of South America, the fifth most populous country, and the fourth most populous democracy in the world. Bounded by the Atlantic Ocean...
,
NamibiaNamibia, officially the Republic of Namibia , is a country in Southern Africa whose western border is the Atlantic Ocean. It shares borders with Angola and Zambia to the north, Botswana and Zimbabwe to the east, and South Africa to the south and east...
,
UzbekistanUzbekistan, officially the Republic of Uzbekistan , is a doubly landlocked country in Central Asia, formerly part of the Soviet Union...
, USA,
NigerNiger , officially the Republic of Niger is a landlocked country in Western Africa, named after the Niger River. It borders Nigeria and Benin to the south, Burkina Faso and Mali to the west, Algeria and Libya to the north and Chad to the east...
, and
RussiaRussia , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia . It is a semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
Out of these countries,
AustraliaAustralia , officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country in the Southern Hemisphere comprising the continental mainland , the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans...
,
KazakhstanKazakhstan , officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a country situated in Eurasia that is ranked as the ninth largest country in the world. It is also the world's largest landlocked country. Its territory of 2,727,300 km² is greater than Western Europe...
and
CanadaCanada is a country occupying most of northern North America, extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
have the world's largest deposits of uranium. Australia's resources has just under 30% of the world's reasonably assured resources and inferred resources of uranium - about .
Kazakhstan has about 17% of the world's reserves, or about And Canada has of uranium, representing about 12%. On the other hand several countries no longer mine uranium.
Undiscovered conventional resources
Undiscovered conventional resources can be broken up into two classifications "Estimated Additional Resources-II" and "Speculative Resources".
It will take a significant exploration and development effort to locate the remaining deposits and begin mining them. However, since the entire earth's geography has not been explored for uranium at this time, there is still the potential to discover exploitable resources. The OECD redbook cites quite a few areas still open to exploration throughout the world. Many countries are conducting complete aeromagnetic gradiometer radiometric surveys to get an estimate the size of their undiscovered mineral resources. When combined with a gamma-ray survey it can locate undiscovered uranium and thorium deposits. The U.S. Department of Energy conducted the first and only national uranium assessment in 1980 - the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program.
Secondary resources
Secondary resources are essentially recovered uranium from other sources such as nuclear weapons, inventories, reprocessing and re-enrichment. Since secondary resources have exceedingly low discovery costs and very low production costs, they may have displaced a significant portion of primary production. Secondary uranium was and is available essentially instantly. However, new primary production will not be. Essentially, secondary supply is a "one-time" finite supply.
Inventories
Inventories are kept by a variety of organizations - government, commercial and others.
Government Inventories
The US
DOE*A doe is a female deer, goat, or leporid.Doe may also refer to:In music:* Do, The first syllable used in Solfège, a system of note learning* D.O.E., an American rapper* Do , a Dutch singer...
keeps inventories for security of supply in order to cover for emergencies where uranium is not available at any price. And should such an emergency arise, DOE will obtain the highest value to the benefit of the taxpayers. In the event of a major supply disruption, the Department may not have sufficient uranium to meet a severe uranium shortage in the United States.
Decommissioning nuclear weapons
Both the US and Russia have committed to recycle their nuclear weapons into fuel for electricity production. This program is known as the
Megatons to Megawatts ProgramThe Megatons to Megawatts Program is the name given to the program that implemented the 1993 United States-Russia nonproliferation agreement to convert high-enriched uranium taken from dismantled Russian nuclear weapons into low-enriched-uranium for nuclear fuel.-Extent of program since 1995:From...
.
Down blending of Russian weapons High Enriched Uranium (HEU) will result in about of Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) over 20 years. This is equivalent to about of natural U, or just over twice annual world demand. Since 2000, of military HEU is displacing about of uranium oxide mine production per year which represents some 13% of world reactor requirements.
Plutonium recovered from nuclear weapons or other sources can be blended with uranium fuel to produce a mixed-oxide fuel. In June 2000, the USA and Russia agreed to dispose of each of weapons-grade plutonium by 2014. The US undertook to pursue sel-funded dual track program (immobilization and MOX). The G-7 nations provided US$ 1 billion to set up Russia's program. The latter was initially MOX specifically designed for VVER reactors, the Russian version of the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), the high cost being because this was not part of Russia's fuel cycle policy. This MOX fuel for both countries is equivalent to about of natural uranium. The U.S. also has commitments to dispose of of non-waste HEU.
The Megatons to Megawatts program will come to an end in 2013.
Reprocessing and Recycling
Nuclear reprocessingNuclear reprocessing separates components of spent nuclear fuel.Reprocessing serves multiple purposes, whose relative importance has changed over time:*Producing plutonium for nuclear weapons...
, sometimes called recycling, is one method of mitigating the eventual peak of Uranium production. It involves the recovery of fissile material from spent fuel. Although reprocessing of nuclear fuel is done in few countries (
FranceIn France, , Électricité de France — the country's main electricity generation and distribution company — manages the country's 59 nuclear power plants. , these plants produce 90% of both EDF's and France's electrical power production , making EDF the world leader in production of nuclear power by...
,
United KingdomNuclear Power in the United Kingdom generates a fifth of the country's electricity . The Nuclear Installations Inspectorate oversee all nuclear power installations and, as of 2006, the United Kingdom operates 24 nuclear reactors...
, and
JapanIn 2008, after the opening of 8 brand new nuclear plants in Japan Japan became the second largest nuclear power user in the world with 63 nuclear reactors...
) the
United StatesThe United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
President banned reprocessing in the late 1970s due to the high costs and the proliferation of plutonium. In 2005, U.S. legislators proposed a program to reprocess the spent fuel that has accumulated at power plants. At present prices, such a program is significantly more expensive than disposing spent fuel and mining fresh uranium.
There are only two large-scale commercial reprocessing plants: in La Hague, France and Sellafield, England—together capable of reprocessing 2,800 tonnes of uranium waste annually.
Most of the
spent fuelSpent nuclear fuel, occasionally called used nuclear fuel, is nuclear fuel that has been irradiated in a nuclear reactor to the point where it is no longer useful in sustaining a nuclear reaction....
components can be recovered and recycled. About two-thirds of the U.S. spent fuel inventory is uranium. This includes residual fissile uranium-235 that can be recycled directly as fuel for
heavy water reactorHeavy water reactors use heavy water as a neutron moderator. Heavy water is deuterium oxide, D2O. Neutrons in a nuclear reactor that uses uranium must be slowed down so that they are more likely to split other atoms and get more neutrons released to split other atoms...
s or enriched again for use as fuel in
light water reactorThe light water reactor or LWR is a type of thermal reactor that uses light water as a coolant and neutron moderator as opposed to heavy water as a coolant/moderator...
s.
Plutonium and uranium can be chemically separated from spent fuel. When used nuclear fuel is reprocessed using the
de facto standardA de facto standard is a custom, convention, product, or system that has achieved a dominant position by public acceptance or market forces . De facto is a Latin phrase meaning "concerning the fact" or "in practice"...
PUREXPUREX is the de facto standard aqueous nuclear reprocessing method for the recovery of uranium and plutonium from used nuclear fuel. It is based on liquid-liquid extraction ion-exchange...
method, both plutonium and uranium are recovered separately. The spent fuel contains about 1% Plutonium. Plutonium extracted using PUREX contains Pu-240 which has a high rate of spontaneous fission, making it an undesirable contaminant in producing safe nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, nuclear weapons can be made with reactor grade plutonium.
The spent fuel is primarily composed of uranium, the vast majority of which has not been consumed or transmuted in the nuclear reactor. At a typical concentration of around 96% by mass in the used nuclear fuel, uranium is the largest component of used nuclear fuel. The composition of reprocessed uranium depends on the time the fuel has been in the reactor, but it is mostly U-238. Typically it will have about 1% U-235 and small amounts of U-232 and U-236. However, reprocessed uranium is also a waste product because it is contaminated and undesirable for reuse in reactors. During its irradiation in a reactor, uranium is profoundly modified. The uranium that leaves the reprocessing plant contains all the isotopes of uranium between
uranium-232Uranium 232 is an isotope of uranium. It has a half life of 68.9 years and is a side product in the thorium cycle. It has been cited as an obstacle to nuclear proliferation using 233U as the fissile material, because the intense gamma radiation of 232U's decay products makes...
and
uranium-238Uranium-238 is the most common isotope of uranium found in nature. When hit by a neutron, it eventually becomes plutonium-239 ....
except uranium-237, which is rapidly transformed into neptunium-237. The undesirable isotopic contaminants are:
- Uranium-232 (whose decay products emit strong gamma radiation making handling more difficult), and
- Uranium-234 (which is fertile material but can affect reactivity differently than uranium-238).
- Uranium-236 (which absorbs neutrons without fissioning and becomes neptunium-237 which is one of the most difficult isotopes for long-term disposal in a deep geological repository)
- Daughter products of uranium-232: bismuth-212, thallium-208.
At present, reprocessing and the use of plutonium as reactor fuel is far more expensive than using uranium fuel and disposing of the spent fuel directly—even if the fuel is only reprocessed once. However, nuclear reprocessing becomes more economically attractive, compared to mining more uranium, as uranium prices continue to increase.
Currently, there are eleven operating reprocessing plants operating in the world. Out of those, there are only two large-scale commercially operated plants for the reprocessing of spent fuel elements from light water reactors with throughputs of more than of uranium per year. These are La Hague, France with a capacity of per year and Sellafield, England at uranium per year. The rest are small experimental plants.
The total recovery rate /yr from reprocessing currently is only a small fraction compared to the growing gap between the rate demanded /yr and the rate at which the primary uranium supply is providing uranium /yr.
Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) on uranium reprocessing is highly positive, though not as positive as the mining and enrichment of uranium, and the process can be repeated hundreds of times. Assuming the price of uranium rose making reprocessing economically viable, plants would be built. Additional reprocessing plants may bring some economies of scale.
The main problems with uranium reprocessing are the cost of mined uranium compared to the cost of reprocessing , the nuclear industry not wanting to shoulder the costs of reprocessing , nuclear proliferation risks , the risk of major policy change , the risk of incurring large cleanup costs , stringent regulations for reprocessing plants , and the anti-nuclear movement . Assuming the peak theory holds in other non-renewable commodities, such as oil, coal, or gas, civilization will soon face a choice between collapse, increasing reliance on renewables and/or uranium reprocessing.
Unconventional resources
Unconventional resources are occurrences that require novel technologies for their exploitation and/or use. Often unconventional resources occur in low-concentration. The exploitation of unconventional uranium requires additional research and development efforts for which there is no imminent economic need, given the large conventional resource base and the option of
reprocessingNuclear reprocessing separates components of spent nuclear fuel.Reprocessing serves multiple purposes, whose relative importance has changed over time:*Producing plutonium for nuclear weapons...
spent fuel. Phosphates, seawater, uraniferous coal ash, and some type of
oil shaleOil shale, an organic-rich fine-grained sedimentary rock, contains significant amounts of kerogen from which technology can extract liquid hydrocarbons. The name oil shale represents a double misnomer, as geologists would not necessarily classify the rock as a shale, and its kerogen differs from...
s are examples of unconventional uranium resources.
Phosphates
The soaring price of uranium may cause long-dormant operations to extract uranium from phosphate. The technology for recovering uranium from phosphate mines is mature.
Worldwide, there were approximately 400 wet-process phosphoric acid plants in operation. Assuming an average recoverable content of 100 ppm of uranium, and that uranium prices do not increase so that the main use of the phosphates are for fertilizers, this scenario would result in a maximum theoretical annual output of U
3O
8.
Historical operating costs for the uranium recovery from phosphoric acid range from $48–119/kg U
3O
8. These operating costs are by far higher than uranium market prices, and most uranium recovery plants have been closed.
There are 22 million tons of U in phosphate deposits. The technology to recover the uranium from phosphates is mature; it has been utilized in Belgium and the United States, but high recovery costs limit the utilization of these resources, with estimated producation costs according to a 2003 OECD report for a new 100 tU/year project, would be in the range of USD 60-100 kg/ U including capital investment.
Seawater
Unconventional uranium resources include up to of uranium contained in sea water. The technology to extract uranium from sea water has only been demonstrated at the laboratory scale, and extraction costs were estimated in the mid-1990s at US$ 260/kgU (Nobukawa, et al., 1994) but scaling up laboratory-level production to thousands of tonnes is unproven and may encounter unforeseen difficulties.
One method of extracting uranium from seawater is using a uranium-specific nonwoven fabric as an absorbent. The total amount of uranium recovered in an experiment in 2003 from three collection boxes containing 350 kg of fabric was >1 kg of yellow cake after 240 days of submersion in the ocean. According to the OECD, uranium may be extracted from seawater using this method for about $300/KgU
In 2006 the same research group stated: "If 2g-U/kg-adsorbent is submerged for 60 days at a time and used 6 times, the uranium cost is calculated to be 88,000 yen/kg-U, including the cost of adsorbent production, uranium collection, and uranium purification. When 6g-U/kg-adsorbent and 20 repetitions or more becomes possible, the uranium cost reduces to 15,000 yen. This price level is equivalent to that of the highest cost of the minable uranium. The lowest cost attainable now is 25,000 yen with 4g-U/kg-adsorbent used in the sea area of Okinawa, with 18 repetitionuses. In this case, the initial investment to collect the uranium from seawater is 107.7 billion yen, which is 1/3 of the construction cost of a one million-kilowatt class nuclear power plant."
Among the other methods to recover uranium from sea water, two seem promising: algae bloom to concentrate Uranium and nanomembrane filtering.
So far, no more than a very small amount of uranium has been recovered from sea water in a laboratory.
Uraniferous coal ash
An international consortium has set out to explore the commercial extraction of uranium from uraniferous coal ash from coal power stations located in Yunnan province, China. The first laboratory scale amount of yellowcake uranium recovered from uraniferous coal ash was announced in 2007. The three coal power stations at Xiaolongtang, Dalongtang and Kaiyuan have piled up their waste ash. Initial tests from the Xiaolongtang ash pile indicate that the material contains (160-180 parts per million uranium), suggesting a
total of some U3O8 could be recovered from that ash pile alone.
Oil shales
Some oil shales contain uranium as a byproduct. Between 1946 and 1952, a marine type of
DictyonemaBasidiolichens are lichenized members of the Basidiomycota, a much smaller group of lichens than the far more common ascolichens in the Ascomycota. In Arctic, alpine, and temperate forests, the most common basidiolichens are in the agaric genera Lichenomphalia and the clavaroid genus Multiclavula...
shale was used for
uraniumUranium is a silvery-white metallic chemical element in the actinide series of the periodic table that has the symbol U and atomic number 92. Besides its 92 protons, a uranium nucleus can have between 141 and 146 neutrons. The most common uranium isotopes are U-238 and U-235 . A uranium atom has...
production in
SillamäeSillamäe is a town in Ida-Viru County in the northern part of Estonia, on the southern coast of the Gulf of Finland.During the Soviet regime in Estonia, Sillamäe was a closed town mainly because of the chemical factory in there which produced fuel rods and nuclear materials for the Soviet nuclear...
, Estonia, and between 1950 and 1989
alumAlum is both a specific chemical compound and a class of chemical compounds. The specific compound is the hydrated aluminium potassium sulfate with the formula KAl
2.12H
2O...
shale was used in Sweden for the same purpose.
Breeding
A breeder reactor produces more nuclear fuel than it consumes and thus can extend the uranium supply. It typically turns the dominant isotope in natural uranium, uranium-238, into plutonium-239, another nuclear fuel that can also be used in nuclear weapons. This does not allow an infinite supply but allows a hundredfold increase in the amount of energy to be produced per mass unit of uranium. This is because U-238, which constitute 99.3 of natural uranium, is not used in conventional reactors which instead use U-235 which only represent 0.7% of natural uranium.
There are two types of breeders: Fast breeders and thermal breeders.
Fast breeder
Fast breeder reactors are expensive to build and operate, including the reprocessing, and could only be justified economically if uranium prices were to rise to pre-1980 values in real terms. About 20 fast-neutron reactors have already been operating, some since the 1950s, and one supplies electricity commercially. Over 300 reactor-years of operating experience have been accumulated. Such reactors have an advantage in that they produce less long-lived transuranic wastes. Several countries have research and development programs for improving these reactors. For instance, one scenario in France is for half of the present nuclear capacity to be replaced by fast breeder reactors by 2050. China, India, and Japan plan large scale utilization of breeder reactors during the coming decades.
The breeding of plutonium fuel in
Fast Breeder ReactorsThe fast breeder or fast breeder reactor is a fast neutron reactor designed to breed fuel by producing more fissile material than it consumes...
(FBR), known as the plutonium economy, was for a time believed to be the future of nuclear power. The few commercial breeder reactors that have been built have been riddled with technical and budgetary problems. Some sources critical of breeder reactors have gone so far to call them the
SSTA supersonic transport is a civil supersonic aircraft designed to transport passengers at speeds greater than the speed of sound. The only SST to see regular service were Concorde and the Tupolev Tu-144. The last passenger flight of the Tu-144 was in June 1978, and Concorde's last flight was on...
of the 80's.
A fast breeder, in addition to consuming U-235, converts
fertileFertile material is a term used to describe nuclides which generally themselves do not undergo induced fission but from which fissile material is generated by neutron absorption and subsequent nuclei conversions...
U-238 into Pu-239, a
fissileIn nuclear engineering, a fissile material is one that is capable of sustaining a chain reaction of nuclear fission.All known fissile materials are capable of sustaining a chain reaction in which either thermal or slow neutrons or fast neutrons predominate...
fuel. Breeders may be technically feasible, but they are complex, costly and plagued with problems. Uranium turned out to be far more plentiful than anticipated, and the price of uranium declined rapidly (with an upward blip in the 1970s). This is why the US halted their use in 1977 and the UK abandoned the idea in 1994.
Fast Breeder Reactors, which use plutonium, are so-called because they have no
moderatorIn nuclear engineering, a neutron moderator is a medium which reduces the speed of fast neutrons, thereby turning them into thermal neutrons capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction involving uranium-235....
(light water,
heavy waterHeavy water is water that contains a higher proportion than normal of the isotope deuterium, as deuterium oxide, D2O or ²H2O, or as deuterium protium oxide, HDO or ¹H²HO. Its physical and chemical properties are somewhat similar to those of water, H2O...
or
graphiteThe mineral graphite is one of the allotropes of carbon. It was named by Abraham Gottlob Werner in 1789 from the Greek γραφειν : "to draw/write", for its use in pencils, where it is commonly called lead, as distinguished from the actual metallic element lead...
) and breed more fuel than they consume. The word 'fast' in fast breeder refers to the speed of the neutrons in the reactor's core. The higher the energy the neutrons have, the higher the breeding ratio or the more uranium that is changed into plutonium.
Significant technical and materials problems were encountered with FBRs. Geological exploration showed that scarcity was not going to be a concern for some time. By the 1980s, due to both factors, it was clear that FBRs would not be commercially competitive with existing light water reactors. The economics of FBRs still depend on the value of the plutonium fuel which is bred, relative to the cost of fresh uranium. Despite massive research efforts, attempts to increase the uranium reserves with fast breeder reactors have failed worldwide. We do not yet have the know-how to technically and commercially exploit fast breeder reactors on a large scale. Research continues in several countries with working prototypes
PhénixPhénix is a small-scale prototype fast breeder reactor in France, located in the Marcoule nuclear site. It is a pool-type Liquid-Metal Fast Breeder reactor cooled with liquid Sodium...
in France, the
BN-600 reactorThe BN-600 reactor is a sodium-cooled fast breeder reactor built at the Beloyarsk Nuclear Power Station, in Zarechny, Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia. Designed for 600 MW , it produces 560 MW dispatching energy to the Middle Urals power grid...
in Russia, and the Monju scheduled to be restarted in 2009.
On February 16, 2006 the U.S.,
FranceFrance , officially the French Republic , is a country located in Western Europe, with several overseas islands and territories located on other continents. Metropolitan France extends from the Mediterranean Sea to the English Channel and the North Sea, and from the Rhine to the Atlantic Ocean...
and
Japanis an island country in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, People's Republic of China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
signed an arrangement to research and develop sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors in support of the
Global Nuclear Energy PartnershipThe Global Nuclear Energy Partnership began as a U.S. proposal, announced by United States Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman on February 6, 2006, to form an international partnership to promote the use of nuclear power and close the nuclear fuel cycle in a way that reduces nuclear waste and the...
. Breeder reactors are also being studied under the
Generation IV reactorGeneration IV reactors are a set of theoretical nuclear reactor designs currently being researched. Most of these designs are generally not expected to be available for commercial construction before 2030, with the exception of a version of the Very High Temperature Reactor called the Next...
program.
Early prototypes have been plagued with problems. The liquid
sodiumSodium is a metallic element with a symbol Na and atomic number 11. It is a soft, silvery-white, highly reactive metal and is a member of the alkali metals within "group 1"...
coolant is highly flammable, bursting into flames if it comes into contact with air and exploding if it comes into contact with water. Japan's fast breeder Monju Nuclear Power Plant has been scheduled to re-open in 2008, 13 years after a serious accident and fire involving a sodium leak. In 1997 France shut down its Superphenix reactor, while the Phenix, built earlier, is scheduled to close in 2009.
At higher uranium prices
breeder reactorA breeder reactor is a nuclear reactor that generates new fissile or fissionable material at a greater rate than it consumes such material. These reactors were initially considered appealing due to their superior fuel economy; a normal reactor is able to consume less than 1% of the natural...
s may be economically justified since uranium is bred into plutonium, another fissile fuel. Many nations have ongoing breeder research programs. China, India, and Japan plan large scale utilization of breeder reactors during the coming decades. 300 reactor-years experience has been gained in operating them.
As of June 2008 there are only two running commercial breeders and the rate of reactor-grade plutonium production is very small (20 tonnes/yr). The reactor grade plutonium is being processed into MOX fuel. However, next to the rate at which uranium is being mined (46,403 tonnes/yr), this is not enough to stave off Peak uranium.
Thermal breeder
ThoriumThorium is a chemical element with the symbol Th and atomic number 90. It is a naturally occurring, slightly radioactive metal. Thorium is estimated to be about three to four times more abundant than uranium in the earth's crust...
is an alternate fuel cycle to uranium. Thorium is three times more plentiful than uranium. Thorium-232 is in itself not fissile, but
fertileFertile material is a term used to describe nuclides which generally themselves do not undergo induced fission but from which fissile material is generated by neutron absorption and subsequent nuclei conversions...
. It can be made into fissile
uranium-233Uranium-233 is a fissile artificial isotope of uranium, which has been used in a few nuclear reactors and has been proposed for much wider use as a nuclear fuel. It has a half-life of 160,000 years....
in a breeder reactor. In turn, the uranium-233 can be fissioned like uranium-235 with the advantage that the
fission productNuclear fission products are the atomic fragments left after a large atomic nucleus fissions. Typically, a large nucleus like that of uranium fissions by splitting into two smaller nuclei, along with a few neutrons and a large release of energy in the form of heat , gamma rays and neutrinos...
s are less radioactive than the ones from uranium 235. Thorium is also a finite resource and shares many of the concerns of the public regarding
nuclear powerNuclear power is power produced from controlled nuclear reactions. Commercial plants in use to date use nuclear fission reactions....
or uranium fuel cycles.
Despite the
thorium fuel cycleThe thorium fuel cycle is a nuclear fuel cycle that uses the naturally abundant isotope of thorium, 232Th, as fertile material, and the artificial uranium isotope, 233U, as fissile fuel for a nuclear reactor...
having a number of attractive features, development on a large scale can run into difficulties:
- The resulting U-233 fuel is expensive to fabricate.
- The U-233 chemically separated from the irradiated thorium fuel is highly radioactive.
- Separated U-233 is always contaminated with traces of U-232
- Thorium is difficult to recycle due to highly radioactive Th-228
- If the U-233 can be separated on its own, it becomes a weapons proliferation risk
- And, there are technical problems in reprocessing.
The first successful commercial reactor at the
Indian Point power stationIndian Point Energy Center is a three-unit nuclear power plant station located in Buchanan, New York just south of Peekskill. It sits on the east bank of the Hudson River, 24 miles north of New York City, New York...
in
Buchanan, New YorkBuchanan is a village located in the Town of Cortlandt, in Westchester County, New York. The population was 2,189 at the 2000 census.The Indian Point nuclear power plant is located in Buchanan.-Geography:Buchanan is located at ....
(Indian Point Unit 1) ran on Thorium. The first core did not live up to expectations.
Indian interest in thorium is motivated by their substantial reserves. Almost a third of the world's thorium reserves are in India India's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) says that it will construct a 500 MWe prototype reactor in Kalpakkam. There are plans for four breeder reactors of 500 MWe each - two in Kalpakkam and two more in a yet undecided location.
Supply-demand gap
Current global uranium production meets only 58 per cent of demand, with the shortfall made up largely from rapidly shrinking stockpiles. The shortfall is expected to run at 51 million pounds a year on average from next year to 2020. During the last 15 years, the shortfall between production and requirements was made up by excess commercial inventories, uranium released from military use and other secondary sources. These are now in decline, and the shortfall will increasingly need to be made up by primary production.
Uranium demand, mining production and deficit
| Country |
Uranium required 2006-08 |
% of world demand |
Indigenous mining production 2006 |
Deficit (-surplus) |
| USA |
| 29.3% |
| |
| France |
| 16.3% |
0 |
|
| Japan |
| 11.8% |
0 |
|
| Russia |
| 5.2% |
| |
| Germany |
| 5.2% |
| |
| South Korea |
| 4.8% |
0 |
|
| UK |
| 3.4% |
0 |
|
| Rest of world |
| 24.0% |
| |
| Total | | 100.0% | | |
|---|
Peak uranium for individual nations
Eleven countries,
GermanyGermany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a country in Central Europe. It is bordered to the north by the North Sea, Denmark, and the Baltic Sea; to the east by Poland and the Czech Republic; to the south by Austria and Switzerland; and to the west by France, Luxembourg, Belgium,...
, the
Czech RepublicThe Czech Republic is a country in Central Europe that is sometimes considered to be Eastern European. The country borders Poland to the northeast, Germany to the west and northwest, Austria to the south and Slovakia to the east. The capital and largest city is Prague...
,
FranceFrance , officially the French Republic , is a country located in Western Europe, with several overseas islands and territories located on other continents. Metropolitan France extends from the Mediterranean Sea to the English Channel and the North Sea, and from the Rhine to the Atlantic Ocean...
, DR Congo,
GabonGabon is a country in west central Africa sharing borders with the Gulf of Guinea to the west, Equatorial Guinea to the northwest, and Cameroon to the north, with the Republic of the Congo curving around the east and south. Its size is almost 270,000 km² with an estimated population...
,
BulgariaBulgaria , officially the Republic of Bulgaria , is a country in the Balkans in south-eastern Europe. Bulgaria borders five other countries: Romania to the north , Serbia and the Republic of Macedonia to the west, and Greece and Turkey to the south...
,
TajikistanTajikistan , officially the Republic of Tajikistan , is a mountainous landlocked country in Central Asia. Afghanistan borders it to the south, Uzbekistan to the west, Kyrgyzstan to the north, and People's Republic of China to the east...
,
HungaryHungary , in English officially the Republic of Hungary , is a landlocked country in the Carpathian Basin of Central Europe, bordered by Austria, Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. Its capital is Budapest. Hungary is a member of OECD, NATO, EU, V4 and is a Schengen state...
,
RomaniaRomania is a country located in Southeastern and Central Europe, North of the Balkan Peninsula, on the Lower Danube, within and outside the Carpathian arch, bordering on the Black Sea. Almost all of the Danube Delta is located within its territory...
,
SpainSpain , officially the Kingdom of Spain , is a country located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula.
[The Spanish constitution does not establish any official denomination of the country, even though España , Estado español and Nación española are used interchangeably...]
,
PortugalPortugal , officially the Portuguese Republic , is a country located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula. Portugal is the westernmost country of mainland Europe and is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the west and south and by Spain to the north and east...
and
ArgentinaArgentina, officially the Argentine Republic , is the second largest country in South America, constituted as a federation of 23 provinces and an autonomous city, Buenos Aires. It is the eighth largest country in the world by land area and the largest among Spanish-speaking nations, though Mexico,...
, have already peaked their uranium production and exhausted their uranium resources and must rely on imports for their nuclear programs or abandon them. Other countries have reached their peak production of Uranium and are currently on a decline.
- Germany—Between 1946 and 1990, Wismut, the former East German uranium mining company, produced a total of around of uranium. During its peak, production exceeded per year. In 1990, uranium mining was discontinued as a consequence of the German unification. The company could not compete on the world market. The production cost of its uranium was three times the world price.
- India—India
India, officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country, and the most populous democracy in the world. Bounded by the Indian Ocean on the south, the Arabian Sea on the west, and the Bay of Bengal...
, having already hit its production peak, is finding itself in making a tough choice between using its modest and dwindling uranium resources as a source to keep its weapons programs rolling or it can use them to produce electricity. Since India has abundant thoriumThorium is a chemical element with the symbol Th and atomic number 90. It is a naturally occurring, slightly radioactive metal. Thorium is estimated to be about three to four times more abundant than uranium in the earth's crust...
reserves, it is switching to nuclear reactors powered by the thorium fuel cycleThe thorium fuel cycle is a nuclear fuel cycle that uses the naturally abundant isotope of thorium, 232Th, as fertile material, and the artificial uranium isotope, 233U, as fissile fuel for a nuclear reactor...
.
- Sweden - 1969—Sweden started uranium production in 1965 but was never profitable. They stopped mining uranium in 1969. Sweden then embarked on a massive project based on American light water reactors. Nowadays, Sweden imports its uranium mostly from Canada, Australia and the former Soviet Union.
- UK - 1981The U.K.'s uranium production peaked in 1981 and the supply is running out. Yet the UK still plans to build more nuclear power plants.
- France - 1988—In France
France , officially the French Republic , is a country located in Western Europe, with several overseas islands and territories located on other continents. Metropolitan France extends from the Mediterranean Sea to the English Channel and the North Sea, and from the Rhine to the Atlantic Ocean...
uranium production attained a peak of in 1988. At the time, this was enough for France to meet the half of its reactor demand from domestic sources. By 1997, production was 1/5 of the 1991 levels. France markedly reduced its market share since 1997. In 2002, France ran out of uranium.
- U.S. - 1980—The United States was the world's leading producer of uranium from 1953 until 1980, when annual US production peaked at (U3O8) according to the OECD redbook. According to the CRB yearbook, US production the peak was at . The U.S. production hit another maximum in 1996 at of uranium oxide (U3O8), then dipped in production for a few years. Between 2003 and 2007, there has been a 125% increase in production as demand for uranium has increased. However, as of 2008, production levels have not come back to 1980 levels.
Uranium mining production in the United States
| Year |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
| U3O8 (Mil lb) |
3.1 |
3.4 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
5.6 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
| U3O8 (tonnes) |
1,410 |
1,540 |
2,700 |
2,860 |
2,540 |
2,130 |
2,090 |
1,800 |
1,180 |
1,040 |
910 |
1,040 |
1,220 |
1,860 |
2,040 |
Uranium mining declined with the last open pit mine shutting down in 1992 (Shirley Basin, Wyoming. United States production occurred in the following states (in descending order): New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Texas, Arizona, Florida, Washington, and South Dakota. The collapse of uranium prices caused all conventional mining to cease by 1992. "In-situ" recovery or ISR has continued primarily in Wyoming and adjacent Nebraska as well has recently restarted in Texas.
- Canada 1959, 2001?—The first phase of Canadian uranium production peaked at more than in 1959. The 1970s saw renewed interest in exploration and resulted in major discoveries in northern Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin. Production peaked its uranium production a second time at in 2001. Experts believe that it will take more than ten years to open new mines.
Pessimistic predictions for peak uranium
All the following sources predict peak uranium (when uranium demand exceeds supply):
Robert Vance, while looking back at 40 years of Uranium production through all of the Red Books, found that peak global production was achieved in 1980 at from 22 countries. In 2003, uranium production totaled from 19 countries.
Michael MeacherMichael Hugh Meacher is a British Labour party politician, and Member of Parliament for Oldham West and Royton. On 22 February 2007 he declared that he would be standing for the Labour Leadership, challenging Gordon Brown and John McDonnell...
, the former environment minister of the UK 1997-2003, and UK Member of Parliament, reports that peak uranium happened in 1981. He also predicts a major shortage of uranium sooner than 2013 accompanied with hoarding and its value pushed up to the levels of precious metals.
- 1991 European Nuclear Society
The
European Nuclear SocietyThe European Nuclear Society, founded in 1975, is the federation of 24 nuclear societies from 24 countries — stretching from the Atlantic to the Urals and on across Russia to the Pacific. ENS connects these national nuclear member societies with the principle aim of fostering and coordinating their...
maintains that "global uranium mining has decreased since 1991, but development in the individual countries varies considerably."
- 2009 Rohit Ogra and Edward Moore
Lehman Brothers Holdings analysts Rohit Ogra and Edward Moore predict uranium will hit a peak in 2009. However, they see it as a temporary peak because supplies of uranium won't exceed demand until 2012.
- 2015 World Nuclear Association
The World Nuclear Association , formerly the Uranium Institute, is a confederation of companies connected with nuclear power production...
According to the WNA in 2005, the uranium primary production will expand for 10 years. Then many existing mines will close due to resource depletion. This is expected to result in a leveling and downward trend in production capability. The WNA projects that global primary production will peak in 2015 at of uranium per year, before declining to per year by 2019.
Jan Willem Storm van LeeuwenJan Willem Storm van Leeuwen is a consultant in chemistry and energy systems with more than thirty years experience in technology assessment.Storm van Leeuwen received his Masters in Science, physical chemistry, at the Technical University Eindhoven. He is a senior scientist at Ceedata...
, an independent analyst with Ceedata Consulting, contends that supplies of the high-grade uranium ore required to fuel nuclear power generation will, at current levels of consumption, last to about 2034. Afterwards, the cost of energy to extract the uranium will exceed the price the electric power provided.
The Energy Watch Group has calculated that, even with steep uranium prices, uranium production will have reached its peak by 2035 and that it will only be possible to satisfy the fuel demand of nuclear plants until then.
Optimistic predictions for peak uranium
All the following references claim that the supply is far more than demand. Therefore, they do not predict peak uranium.
In his 1956 landmark paper,
M. King HubbertMarion King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory , with important political ramifications. He was often...
wrote "There is promise, however, provided mankind can solve its international problems and not destroy itself with nuclear weapons, and provided world population (which is now expanding at such a rate as to double in less than a century) can somehow be brought under control, that we may at last have found an energy supply adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the "foreseeable future."" Hubbert's study assumed that breeder reactors would replace light water reactors and that uranium would be bred into plutonium (and possibly thorium would be bred into uranium). He also assumed that economic means of reprocessing would be discovered. For political, economic and nuclear proliferation reasons, the plutonium economy never materialized. Without it, uranium is used up in a once-through process and will peak and run out much sooner. However, at present, it is generally found to be cheaper to mine new uranium out of the ground than to use reprocessed uranium, and therefore the use of reprocessed uranium is limited to only a few nations.
The OECD estimates that with 2002 world nuclear electricity generating rates, with LWR, once-through fuel cycle, there are enough conventional resources to last 85 years using known resources and 270 years using known and as of yet undiscovered resources. With breeders, this is extended to 8,500 years.
If one is willing to pay $300/KgU uranium, there is a vast quantity available in the ocean.
Huber and Mills believe the energy supply is infinite and the problem is merely how we go about extracting the energy. Huber and Mills do not provide an estimate when uranium demand will exceed the supply.
In 1983, physicist Bernard Cohen proposed that uranium is effectively inexhaustible, and could therefore be considered a renewable source of energy. He claims that
fast breeder reactorsA breeder reactor is a nuclear reactor that generates new fissile or fissionable material at a greater rate than it consumes such material. These reactors were initially considered appealing due to their superior fuel economy; a normal reactor is able to consume less than 1% of the natural...
, fueled by naturally replenished uranium extracted from seawater, could supply energy at least as long as the sun's expected remaining lifespan of five billion years. - whilst uranium is a finite resource mineral resource within the earth, the hydrogen in the sun is finite too - thus, if the resource of nuclear fuel can last over such time scales, as Cohen contents, then nuclear energy is every bit as sustainable as solar power or any other source of energy, in terms of sustainability over the finite realistic time scale of life surviving on this planet.
His paper assumes extraction of uranium from seawater at the rate of per year of uranium and that the cost of electricity will rise no more than 1% due to fuel costs. The current demand for uranium is already near per year. Cohen's paper does not give a date when demand of uranium exceeds the supply of uranium. However, since he calculates using breeder technology uranium would be used at least 60 times more efficiently than today.
Possible effects and consequences of Peak uranium
As uranium production declines, uranium prices would be expected to increase. However, the price of uranium makes up only 9% of the cost of running a nuclear power plant, much lower than the cost of coal in a coal-fired power plant (77%), or the cost of natural gas in a gas-fired power plant (93%).
Uranium price
The uranium spot price has ramped up from a low in Jan 2001 at $6.40 came to a peak in June 2007 at $135 per pound of U
3O
8. The uranium prices have dropped since. Currently (April 2008) the uranium spot is in the mid $60 range.
In 2007, shrinking weapons stockpiles, a large mine closure and new demand due to more reactors coming online was driving uranium prices upwards. Miners and Utilities are bitterly divided on uranium prices.
As prices go up, production responds from existing mines, and production from newer, harder to develop or lower quality uranium ores begins. Currently, much of the new production is coming from
KazakhstanKazakhstan , officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a country situated in Eurasia that is ranked as the ninth largest country in the world. It is also the world's largest landlocked country. Its territory of 2,727,300 km² is greater than Western Europe...
. Production expansion is expected in
CanadaCanada is a country occupying most of northern North America, extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
and in the
United StatesThe United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
. However, the number of projects waiting in the wings to be brought online now are far less than there were in the 1970s. There have been some encouraging signs that production from existing or planned mines is responding or will respond to higher prices. The supply of uranium has recently become very inelastic. As the demand increases, the prices respond dramatically. However, after peak uranium, the rate at which uranium is produced is decreasing. Prices are likely to soar.
Number of Contracts
Unlike other metals such as gold, silver, copper or nickel, uranium is not widely traded on an organized commodity exchange such as the London Metal Exchange. It is traded on the NYMEX but on very low volume. Instead, it is traded in most cases through contracts negotiated directly between a buyer and a seller. The structure of uranium supply contracts varies widely. The prices are either fixed or base on referenced to economic indices such as GDP, inflation or currency exchange. Contracts traditionally are based on the uranium spot price and rules by which the price can escalate. Delivery quantities, schedules, and prices vary from contract to contract and often from delivery to delivery within the term of a contract.
Since the number of companies mining uranium is small, the number of available contracts is also small. Supplies are running short due to flooding of two of the world's largest mines and a dwindling amount of uranium salvaged from nuclear warheads being removed from service. While demand for the metal has been steady for years, the price of uranium is expected to surge as a host of new nuclear plants come online.
Hedge Funds
Several hedge funds are investing in processed uranium, helping drive up the price. There are at least four hedge funds, including two publicly traded firms—Uranium Participation Corp. [ticker: U.TO] and Nufcor Uranium Ltd. [ticker: NUURF.PK] -- actively purchasing uranium.
Mining
Rising uranium price entices draws investment into new uranium mining projects. Mining companies are returning to abandoned uranium mines with new promises of hundreds of jobs and millions in royalties. Some locals want them back. Others say the risk is too great, and will try to stop those companies "until there's a cure for cancer."
Uranium occurs at concentrations of 50 to 200 parts per million in phosphate-laden earth or
phosphate rock. As uranium prices increase, there has been interest in some countries in extraction of uranium from phosphate rock, which is normally used as the basis of phosphate fertilizers.
Electric Utilities
Since many utilities have extensive stockpiles and can plan many months in advance, they take a wait-and-see approach on higher uranium costs. In the past year, this strategy has backfired due to the number of planned reactors or new reactors coming online. Those trying to find uranium in a rising cost climate are forced to face the reality of a seller’s market. Sellers remain reluctant to sell significant quantities. By waiting longer, sellers expect to get a higher price for the material they hold. Utilities on the other hand, are very eager to lock up long-term uranium contracts.
According to the NEA, the nature of nuclear generating costs allows for significant increases in the costs of uranium before the costs of generating electricity significantly increase. A 100% increase in uranium costs would only result in a 5% increase in electric cost. This is because uranium has to be converted to gas, enriched, converted back to yellow cake and fabricated into fuel elements. The cost of the finished fuel assemblies are dominated by the processing costs, not the cost of the raw materials. Furthermore, the cost of electricity from a nuclear power plant is dominated by the high capital and operating costs, not the cost of the fuel. Nevertheless, any increase in the price of uranium is eventually passed on to the consumer either directly or through a fuel surcharge.
Substitutes
An alternative to uranium is
thoriumThorium is a chemical element with the symbol Th and atomic number 90. It is a naturally occurring, slightly radioactive metal. Thorium is estimated to be about three to four times more abundant than uranium in the earth's crust...
which is three times more common than uranium. Fast breeder reactors are not needed. Compared to conventional uranium reactors, thorium reactors using the
thorium fuel cycleThe thorium fuel cycle is a nuclear fuel cycle that uses the naturally abundant isotope of thorium, 232Th, as fertile material, and the artificial uranium isotope, 233U, as fissile fuel for a nuclear reactor...
may produce some 40 times the amount of energy per unit of mass.
If nuclear power prices rise too quickly, or too high, power companies are likely to look for substitutes in non-renewable energy: Coal, oil, and gas:
- Gas consumption is relatively clean, but does produce more CO2 emissions.
- Oil consumption would adversely affect the air quality, increase oil imports and CO2 emissions.
- Coal consumption will result in decreased air quality, increase in water consumption near coal-fired plants and CO2 emissions.
Also
renewable energyRenewable energy is energy generated from natural resources—such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat—which are renewable . In 2006, about 18% of global final energy consumption came from renewables, with 13% coming from traditional biomass, such as wood-burning...
, such as hydro, bio-energy, solar thermal electricity, geothermal, wind, tidal may be considered as substitutes:
- Renewables can make a clean, safe substitute for electricity made from the nuclear fission of uranium although some would argue that renewables cannot provide a sufficient baseload. However, there are reliable and refutable sources that say that the baseload argument is a myth.
- Some renewable electricity sources (e.g. hydro, bioenergy, solar thermal electricity and geothermal ) have identical variability to coal-fired power stations and so they are base-load. They can be integrated without any additional back-up, as can efficient energy use
Efficient energy use, sometimes simply called energy efficiency, is using less energy to provide the same level of energy service.For example, insulating a home allows a building to use less heating and cooling energy to achieve the same temperature...
.
Historical understanding of world uranium supply limits
- 1789 - The German scientist Martin Heinrich Klaproth
Martin Heinrich Klaproth was a German chemist.Klaproth was born in Wernigerode. During a large portion of his life he followed the profession of an apothecary...
isolated uranium in a sample of pitchblende.
- 1896 - Antoine Henri Becquerel discovered that uranium underwent radioactive decay.
- 1939 - Otto Hahn
Otto Hahn was a German chemist and Nobel laureate who pioneered the fields of radioactivity and radiochemistry. He is regarded as "the father of nuclear chemistry" and the "founder of the atomic age".-Early life:...
and Fritz StrassmannFriedrich Wilhelm "Fritz" Straßmann was a German chemist who, with Otto Hahn in 1938, identified barium in the residue after bombarding uranium with neutrons, which led to the interpretation of their results as being from nuclear fission...
discover nuclear fission.
- 1943 - Alvin M. Weinberg
Alvin Martin Weinberg was a nuclear physicist and administrator at Oak Ridge National Laboratory . He came to Oak Ridge, Tennessee in 1945 and remained there until his death in 2006.-Early years in Chicago:...
et al. were aware of the serious limitations on nuclear energy if only U-235 were used as a nuclear power plant fuel. They understood that breeding was required to usher in the age of nearly endless energy.
- 1956 - M. King Hubbert
Marion King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory , with important political ramifications. He was often...
declares world fissionable reserves adequate for at least the next few centuries assuming breeding and reprocessing will be developed into economical processes.
- 1975 - The US Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, distributed the press release "Known US Uranium Reserves Won't Meet Demand". It was recommended that the US not depend on foreign imports of uranium.
See also
Prediction
- Backstop resources
Backstop resources theory states that as a heavily used limited resource becomes expensive, alternative resources will become cheap by comparison, therefore making the alternatives economically viable options...
- Hubbert peak theory
The Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve...
- World energy resources and consumption
In 2005, total worldwide energy consumption was 500 exajoules with 80 to 90 percent derived from the combustion of fossil fuels. This is equivalent to an average energy consumption rate of 16 terawatts...
Economics
- Low-carbon economy
A Low-Carbon Economy or Low-Fossil-Fuel Economy is a concept that refers to an economy which has a minimal output of greenhouse gas emissions into the biosphere, but specifically refers to the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide...
Technology
- Electric vehicles
- Energy conservation
Energy conservation is the practice of decreasing the quantity of energy used. It may be achieved through efficient energy use, in which case energy use is decreased while achieving a similar outcome, or by reduced consumption of energy services...
- Energy efficiency
- Energy development
Energy development is the effort to provide sufficient primary energy sources and secondary energy forms to fulfill civilization's needs. It involves both installation of established technologies and research and development to create new energy-related technologies...
- Isotopes of uranium
Uranium is a naturally occurring element with no stable isotopes. In other words, all uranium is radioactive and hence vanishing by radioactive decay, yet it is also found in great quantity in the earth's crust. The natural isotopes are uranium-234, uranium-235, and uranium-238, with the average...
- Renewable energy commercialization
Renewable energy commercialization involves the diffusion of three generations of technologies dating back more than 100 years. First-generation technologies, which are already mature and economically competitive, include biomass, hydroelectricity, geothermal power and heat...
- Soft energy path
In 1976 energy policy analyst Amory Lovins coined the term soft energy path to describe an alternative future where energy efficiency and appropriate renewable energy sources steadily replace a centralized energy system based on fossil and nuclear fuels....
- Uranium mining
Uranium mining is the process of extraction of uranium ore from the ground. As uranium ore is mostly present at relatively low concentrations, most uranium mining is very volume-intensive, and thus tends to be undertaken as open-pit mining...
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Others
- Risks of hypothetical future disasters
- Energy security
Access to cheap energy has become essential to the functioning of modern economies. However, the uneven distribution of energy supplies among countries has led to significant vulnerabilities...
- Green Revolution
Green Revolution refers to the transformation of agriculture that began in 1945. One significant factor in this revolution was the Mexican government's request to establish an agricultural research station to develop more varieties of wheat that could be used to feed the rapidly growing population...
- Limits to Growth
The Limits to Growth is a 1972 book modeling the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies, commissioned by the Club of Rome. Its authors were Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. The book used the World3 model to...
- Overconsumption
- Overpopulation
Overpopulation is a condition where an organism's numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat. In common parlance, the term usually refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth....
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Further reading
Books
- Herring, J.: Uranium and thorium resource assessment, Encyclopedia of Energy, Boston University, Boston, USA, 2004, ISBN 0-12-176480-X.
Articles
- Deffeyes, Kenneth S., MacGregor, Ian D. "Uranium Distribution in Mined Deposits and in the Earth’s Crust" Final Report, GJBX—1(79), Dept of Geological and Geophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.
- Deffeyes, K., MacGregor, I.: "World Uranium resources" Scientific American, Vol 242, No 1, January 1980, pp. 66–76.