Our Final Hour is a 2003
bookA book is a set or collection of written, printed, illustrated, or blank sheets, made of paper, parchment, or other material, usually fastened together to hinge at one side. A single sheet within a book is called a leaf, and each side of a leaf is called a page...
by the
BritishThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a sovereign state located off the northwestern coast of continental Europe. It is an island country, spanning an archipelago including Great Britain, the northeastern part of Ireland, and many small islands...
Astronomer RoyalAstronomer Royal is a senior post in the Royal Household of the Sovereign of the United Kingdom. There are two officers, the senior being the Astronomer Royal dating from 22 June 1675; the second is the Astronomer Royal for Scotland dating from 1834....
Sir Martin Rees. The full title of the book is
Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century - On Earth and Beyond. It was published in the
United KingdomThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a sovereign state located off the northwestern coast of continental Europe. It is an island country, spanning an archipelago including Great Britain, the northeastern part of Ireland, and many small islands...
under the less dramatic title Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century?.
The premise of the book is that the
EarthEarth is the third planet from the Sun. It is the fifth largest of the eight planets in the solar system, and the largest of the terrestrial planets in the Solar System in terms of diameter, mass and density...
and
humanHumans are bipedal primates belonging to the species Homo sapiens in Hominidae, the great ape family. They are the only surviving member of the genus Homo. Humans have a highly developed brain, capable of abstract reasoning, language, introspection, and problem solving...
survival are in far greater danger from the potential effects of modern
technologyTechnology is a broad concept that deals with human as well as other animal species' usage and knowledge of tools and crafts, and how it affects a species' ability to control and adapt to its environment...
than is commonly realised, and that the 21st century may be a critical moment in history when humanity's fate is decided.
Our Final Hour is a 2003
bookA book is a set or collection of written, printed, illustrated, or blank sheets, made of paper, parchment, or other material, usually fastened together to hinge at one side. A single sheet within a book is called a leaf, and each side of a leaf is called a page...
by the
BritishThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a sovereign state located off the northwestern coast of continental Europe. It is an island country, spanning an archipelago including Great Britain, the northeastern part of Ireland, and many small islands...
Astronomer RoyalAstronomer Royal is a senior post in the Royal Household of the Sovereign of the United Kingdom. There are two officers, the senior being the Astronomer Royal dating from 22 June 1675; the second is the Astronomer Royal for Scotland dating from 1834....
Sir Martin Rees. The full title of the book is
Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century - On Earth and Beyond. It was published in the
United KingdomThe United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a sovereign state located off the northwestern coast of continental Europe. It is an island country, spanning an archipelago including Great Britain, the northeastern part of Ireland, and many small islands...
under the less dramatic title Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century?.
The premise of the book is that the
EarthEarth is the third planet from the Sun. It is the fifth largest of the eight planets in the solar system, and the largest of the terrestrial planets in the Solar System in terms of diameter, mass and density...
and
humanHumans are bipedal primates belonging to the species Homo sapiens in Hominidae, the great ape family. They are the only surviving member of the genus Homo. Humans have a highly developed brain, capable of abstract reasoning, language, introspection, and problem solving...
survival are in far greater danger from the potential effects of modern
technologyTechnology is a broad concept that deals with human as well as other animal species' usage and knowledge of tools and crafts, and how it affects a species' ability to control and adapt to its environment...
than is commonly realised, and that the 21st century may be a critical moment in history when humanity's fate is decided. Rees discusses a range of
existential riskIn future studies, an existential risk is a risk that is both global and terminal...
s confronting humanity, and controversially estimates that the
probabilityProbability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy...
of
extinctionHuman extinction is the hypothetical end of the human species. Various scenarios have been discussed in science, popular culture, and religion . The breadth of this article is on existential risks....
before 2100 CE is around 50 per cent, based on the possibility of malign or accidental release of destructive technology.
Humanity's fate and recommendations for survival
In Our Final Hour, Rees predicts that one of the two following outcomes is inevitable for humanity:
- Human extinction
Human extinction is the hypothetical end of the human species. Various scenarios have been discussed in science, popular culture, and religion . The breadth of this article is on existential risks....
, as a result of the runaway effects of new technology (eg. nanotechnologyNanotechnology, shortened to "nanotech", is the study of the control of matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Generally nanotechnology deals with structures of the size 100 nanometers or smaller, and involves developing materials or devices within that size.Nanotechnology is very diverse,...
) or uncontrolled scientific research; terroristTerrorism is the systematic use of terror especially as a means of coercion.At present, there is no internationally agreed definition of terrorism...
or fundamentalistFundamentalism refers to a belief in a strict adherence to a set of basic principles , sometimes as a reaction to perceived doctrinal compromises with modern social and political life....
violence; or destruction of the biosphereThe biosphere is the global sum of all ecosystems. It can also be called the zone of life on Earth. From the broadest biophysiological point of view, the biosphere is the global ecological system integrating all living beings and their relationships, including their interaction with the elements...
; or
- Human expansion throughout space
Space and survival is the relationship between outer space and the long-term survival of the human species and civilization. It is based on the observation that space colonization and space science could prevent many human extinction scenarios...
, by minimising, avoiding or overcoming these problems.
In order to avoid human extinction, Rees advocates control of scientific research worldwide, and control of open access to such research (such as
WikipediaWikipedia is a free, web-based, collaborative, multilingual encyclopedia project supported by the non-profit Wikimedia Foundation. Its name is a portmanteau of the words wiki and encyclopedia...
). He states that in the 1990s
Aum ShinrikyoAum Shinrikyo, now known as Aleph, is a Japanese new religious movement. The group was founded by Shoko Asahara in 1984. The group gained international notoriety in 1995, when it carried out the sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subways....
tried unsuccessfully to obtain an
EbolaEbola is the virus Ebolavirus , a viral genus, and the disease Ebola hemorrhagic fever , a viral hemorrhagic fever . There are four recognised species within the ebolavirus genus, which in turn have a number specific strains. The Zaire virus is the type species, which is also the first discovered...
virus sample, which they could now create in their
Mount Fujiis the highest mountain in Japan at . Along with Mount Tate and Mount Haku, it is one of Japan's "Three Holy Mountains" . An active volcano that last erupted in 1707–08, Mount Fuji is just west of Tokyo, and can be seen on a clear day...
lab, using ingredients and instructions from the
InternetThe Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standardized Internet Protocol Suite to serve billions of users worldwide...
.
Rees has long been active in
disarmamentDisarmament is the act of reducing, limiting, or abolishing weapons. Disarmament generally refers to a country's military or specific type of weaponry. The most common form of disarmament is abolishment of weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear arms...
campaigns, and although he now sees
nuclear warfareNuclear warfare, or atomic warfare, is a military conflict or political strategy in which nuclear weapons are used. Compared to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare is vastly more destructive in range and extent of damage...
as a less probable cause of extinction, he advocates
arms controlArms control is an umbrella term for restrictions upon the development, production, stockpiling, proliferation, and usage of weapons, especially weapons of mass destruction...
as much as control of science and technology (see also
World governmentWorld Government is the notion of a single common political authority for all of humanity. Its modern conception is rooted in European history, particularly in the philosophy of ancient Greece, in the political formation of the Roman Empire, and in the subsequent struggle between secular authority,...
). More concerning to him now is the possibility of major
bioterroristBioterrorism is terrorism by intentional release or dissemination of biological agents ; these may be in a naturally-occurring or in a human-modified form.-Definition:...
attacks, as evidenced by his outstanding bet (registered with the Long Bet Project) that such events will occur within the next twenty years.
In terms of space exploration and survival through colonization, Rees is an advocate of the
free marketA free market describes a market without economic intervention and regulation by government except to regulate against force or fraud. The terminology is used by economists and in popular culture. A free market requires protection of property rights, but no regulation, no subsidization, no single...
solution, and believes that the wealthy will push back the frontiers of space.
Reviews
- Review by John Derbyshire in The National Review — Derbyshire is convinced by Rees's argument and considers that human extinction does not seem improbable.
- Review by Oliver Morton in The Guardian — Morton believes that Rees's 50% chance of extinction is too high and states that "defences against bioterror will evolve in step with the threat. It is entirely conceivable that there will be no last move, and no final 'game over'".
- Review at sentientdevelopments.com which agrees with Sir Martin's broad predictions and estimate of extinction but criticizes the book on the grounds that it is oversimplified, and prejudiced against the positive aspects of transhumanism
Transhumanism is an international intellectual and cultural movement supporting the use of science and technology to improve human mental and physical characteristics and capacities. The movement regards aspects of the human condition, such as disability, suffering, disease, aging, and involuntary...
.
- Review by The Universe Today which finds the book to be anti-science, and "short on solutions that could help guide policy".
Further reading
- Rees does not object to the probabilistic argument
* In some contexts, probabilistic argument means any argument involving probability theory* In some contexts, it means a method of non-constructive existence proof in mathematics called the probabilistic method...
for human extinction offered by the Doomsday argumentThe Doomsday argument is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future lifetime of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far...
(as championed by John Leslie in the 1996 book The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction (Routledge, hardcover: ISBN 0-415-14043-9, paperback: ISBN 0-415-18447-9)), but he does not consider it to describe the practical threats and solutions that he discusses.
- In The Singularity is Near
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a 2005 update of Raymond Kurzweil's 1999 book, The Age of Spiritual Machines and his 1987 book The Age of Intelligent Machines. In it, as in the two previous versions, Kurzweil attempts to give a glimpse of what awaits us in the near...
, Raymond KurzweilRaymond Kurzweil is an inventor and futurist. He is involved in fields as diverse as optical character recognition , text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic keyboard instruments...
reaches the same conclusion as Rees on the probability of human extinction within the 21st century.
- In the 2004 book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed is a 2005 book by Jared M. Diamond, professor of geography and physiology at University of California, Los Angeles...
(Viking Adult, ISBN 0-670-03337-5), Jared DiamondJared Mason Diamond is an American scientist and nonfiction author whose work draws from a variety of fields. He is currently Professor of Geography and Physiology at UCLA...
suggests that Sir Martin's hopes of worldwide cooperation in avoiding extinction scenarios may be in vain.
- Ronald Wright
Ronald Wright is a Canadian author who has written books of travel, history and fiction. His nonfiction includes the bestseller Stolen Continents, winner of the Gordon Montador Award and chosen as a book of the year by the Independent and the Sunday Times...
, who quotes Martin Rees with approval in A Short History of ProgressA Short History of Progress is a book-length essay penned by Ronald Wright and published in 2004. Ronald Wright argues that our modern predicament is as old as civilization itself: a 10,000 year old experiment we have participated in but seldom controlled...
(at p. 125–6), is just as pessimistic – much more so than Jared DiamondJared Mason Diamond is an American scientist and nonfiction author whose work draws from a variety of fields. He is currently Professor of Geography and Physiology at UCLA...
– and argues that human history reveals a disastrous series of technological progress trapA progress trap is the condition human societies experience when, in pursuing progress through human ingenuity, they inadvertently introduce problems they do not have the resources or political will to solve, for fear of short-term losses in status, stability or quality of life...
s.
See also
- apocalypse
Apocalypse is a term applied to the disclosure to certain privileged persons of something hidden from the majority of humankind. Today the term is often used to refer to the end of the world, which may be a shortening of the phrase apokalupsis eschaton which literally means "revelation at the end...
- eschatology
Eschatology is a part of theology and philosophy concerned with what are believed to be the final events in the history of the world, or the ultimate destiny of humanity, commonly referred to as the end of the world...
- end of civilization
- extinction
In biology and ecology, extinction is the end of an organism or group of taxa. The moment of extinction is generally considered to be the death of the last individual of that species...
- Fermi paradox
The Fermi paradox is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations....
- human extinction
Human extinction is the hypothetical end of the human species. Various scenarios have been discussed in science, popular culture, and religion . The breadth of this article is on existential risks....
- millenarianism
Millenarianism is the belief by a religious, social, or political group or movement in a coming major transformation of society, after which all things will be changed...
- societal collapse
Societal collapse broadly includes both quite abrupt societal failures typified by the Biblical story of the Tower of Babel, the Mayan Civilization collapse and others of the type, as well as more extended grinding declines of superpowers like the Roman empire in Western Europe and the Han Dynasty...
- technological singularity
Technological singularity is a term used with varying meanings related to self-improving artificial intelligence, superintelligence, breakdowns in the predictability of the future, accelerating change of the exponential or superexponential/catastrophic sort, and more generic "big events" in...
Publication data
- Sir Martin Rees, Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century—On Earth and Beyond (2003), Basic Books, hardcover: ISBN 0-465-06862-6, 2004 paperback: ISBN 0-465-06863-4
- Our Final Century?: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century? (2003) William Heinemann, hardcover: ISBN 0-434-00809-5, 2004 Arrow paperback: ISBN 0-09-943686-8
External links