Nuclear Doctrine of Pakistan
Encyclopedia
The nuclear doctrine of Pakistan is the nuclear strategy policy stated by Pakistan
to be used in the event of a war, particularly against India
.
In the event of a war between Pakistan and India, the Indian numerical superiority in men and conventional arms is likely to overwhelm Pakistan. In a deteriorating military situation, when an Indian conventional attack
is likely to break through Pakistani defenses, or has already breached the main defense line causing a major setback to the defense, which cannot be restored by conventional means, the government would be left with no other option except to use nuclear weapons to stabilize the situation. India's superiority in conventional arms and manpower would have to be offset by nuclear weapons. The political will to use nuclear weapons is essential to prevent a conventional armed conflict, which could later on escalate into a nuclear war.
Pakistan's nuclear doctrine therefore is based on the first strike
option. In other words, the Pakistani government will use nuclear weapons if attacked by India even if the attack is with conventional weapons. With his experience of a graduated nuclear response, Professor Stephen P. Cohen
feels that Pakistan would use what he calls an 'option-enhancing policy'. This would entail a stage-by-stage approach in which the nuclear threat is increased at each step to deter India from attacking. These stages are as follows:
Some weapon systems would be in reserve for the counter-value role. These weapons would be safe from Indian attack as some would be airborne while the ground based ones are mobile and could be moved around the country.
Two major factors have prompted Islamabad to adopt such a posture. First, a first-strike nuclear force is affordable in financial terms and is less cumbersome to build. As first-use policy purports a small nuclear arsenal, it is easier to manage once it is built and its command and control system is less complex compared to a second-strike nuclear force. This is also consistent with Pakistan's policy of minimum nuclear deterrence, another key feature of Pakistan's nuclear doctrine. Second, India's conventional power far outweigh Pakistan's; so a first-use policy is an 'equaliser' of this imbalance. Islamabad's policy in this context is reminiscent of NATO's adoption of a first-use policy during the Cold War period against conventionally superior Warsaw Pact
forces in the European theatre. Pakistan's structural vulnerabilities - lack of go-strategic depth, proximity of missile and air bases and storage facilities to international borders and within the range of an Indian pre-emptive conventional strike, further exacerbate Pakistan's military inferiority, which reinforces the Pakistani rationale to adopt a first-use policy.
Despite its adoption of a first-use policy, Islamabad is yet to clearly state the circumstances or the 'red-lines' that will prompt a Pakistani first-use of nuclear weapons. According to a retired Pakistan Air Force officer, for example, Islamabad will use nuclear weapons first under the following conditions:
Pakistan
Pakistan , officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a sovereign state in South Asia. It has a coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is bordered by Afghanistan and Iran in the west, India in the east and China in the far northeast. In the north, Tajikistan...
to be used in the event of a war, particularly against India
India
India , officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous democracy in the world...
.
In the event of a war between Pakistan and India, the Indian numerical superiority in men and conventional arms is likely to overwhelm Pakistan. In a deteriorating military situation, when an Indian conventional attack
Conventional warfare
Conventional warfare is a form of warfare conducted byusing conventional military weapons and battlefield tactics between two or more states in open confrontation. The forces on each side are well-defined, and fight using weapons that primarily target the opposing army...
is likely to break through Pakistani defenses, or has already breached the main defense line causing a major setback to the defense, which cannot be restored by conventional means, the government would be left with no other option except to use nuclear weapons to stabilize the situation. India's superiority in conventional arms and manpower would have to be offset by nuclear weapons. The political will to use nuclear weapons is essential to prevent a conventional armed conflict, which could later on escalate into a nuclear war.
Pakistan's nuclear doctrine therefore is based on the first strike
First strike
In nuclear strategy, a first strike is a preemptive surprise attack employing overwhelming force. First strike capability is a country's ability to defeat another nuclear power by destroying its arsenal to the point where the attacking country can survive the weakened retaliation while the opposing...
option. In other words, the Pakistani government will use nuclear weapons if attacked by India even if the attack is with conventional weapons. With his experience of a graduated nuclear response, Professor Stephen P. Cohen
Stephen P. Cohen
Stephen P. Cohen is an American political scientist. He is an expert on Pakistan, India, and South Asian security. He is a senior fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution and an emeritus professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.-Books:* The Idea of Pakistan...
feels that Pakistan would use what he calls an 'option-enhancing policy'. This would entail a stage-by-stage approach in which the nuclear threat is increased at each step to deter India from attacking. These stages are as follows:
- A public or private warning.
- demonstration explosion of a small nuclear weapon on Pakistani soil.
- The use of (a) nuclear weapon(s) on Pakistani soil against Indian attacking forces.
- The use of (a) nuclear weapon(s) against critical but purely military targets on Indian soil, probably in thinly populated areas in the desert or semi-desert, causing the least collateral damage.
Some weapon systems would be in reserve for the counter-value role. These weapons would be safe from Indian attack as some would be airborne while the ground based ones are mobile and could be moved around the country.
Alternate doctrine
Starkly contrasting India, Pakistan has adopted a policy of nuclear first-use. In 1998, Pakistan's foreign secretary Shamsad Ahmed mentioned that Pakistan's policy implies that it will not only use nuclear weapons in a retaliatory strike, it is also ready to take the lead and use nuclear weapons first to counter Indian conventional aggression.Two major factors have prompted Islamabad to adopt such a posture. First, a first-strike nuclear force is affordable in financial terms and is less cumbersome to build. As first-use policy purports a small nuclear arsenal, it is easier to manage once it is built and its command and control system is less complex compared to a second-strike nuclear force. This is also consistent with Pakistan's policy of minimum nuclear deterrence, another key feature of Pakistan's nuclear doctrine. Second, India's conventional power far outweigh Pakistan's; so a first-use policy is an 'equaliser' of this imbalance. Islamabad's policy in this context is reminiscent of NATO's adoption of a first-use policy during the Cold War period against conventionally superior Warsaw Pact
Warsaw Pact
The Warsaw Treaty Organization of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance , or more commonly referred to as the Warsaw Pact, was a mutual defense treaty subscribed to by eight communist states in Eastern Europe...
forces in the European theatre. Pakistan's structural vulnerabilities - lack of go-strategic depth, proximity of missile and air bases and storage facilities to international borders and within the range of an Indian pre-emptive conventional strike, further exacerbate Pakistan's military inferiority, which reinforces the Pakistani rationale to adopt a first-use policy.
Despite its adoption of a first-use policy, Islamabad is yet to clearly state the circumstances or the 'red-lines' that will prompt a Pakistani first-use of nuclear weapons. According to a retired Pakistan Air Force officer, for example, Islamabad will use nuclear weapons first under the following conditions:
- Penetration of Indian forces beyond a certain defined line or crossing of a river.
- Imminent capture of an important Pakistani city like LahoreLahoreLahore is the capital of the Pakistani province of Punjab and the second largest city in the country. With a rich and fabulous history dating back to over a thousand years ago, Lahore is no doubt Pakistan's cultural capital. One of the most densely populated cities in the world, Lahore remains a...
, SialkotSialkotSialkot is a city in Pakistan situated in the north-east of the Punjab province at the foothills of snow-covered peaks of Kashmir near the Chenab river. It is the capital of Sialkot District. The city is about north-west of Lahore and only a few kilometers from Indian-controlled Jammu.The...
or the capital city IslamabadIslamabadIslamabad is the capital of Pakistan and the tenth largest city in the country. Located within the Islamabad Capital Territory , the population of the city has grown from 100,000 in 1951 to 1.7 million in 2011... - Destruction of Pakistan's conventional armed forces or other assets beyond an unacceptable level. This includes if the Pakistan ArmyPakistan ArmyThe Pakistan Army is the branch of the Pakistani Armed Forces responsible for land-based military operations. The Pakistan Army came into existence after the Partition of India and the resulting independence of Pakistan in 1947. It is currently headed by General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. The Pakistan...
is unable to halt an invasion or can no longer conduct offensive operations to push the invaders back to the international border. Also, if the Pakistan Air ForcePakistan Air ForceThe Pakistan Air Force is the leading air arm of the Pakistan Armed Forces and is primarily tasked with the aerial defence of Pakistan with a secondary role of providing air support to the Pakistan Army and the Pakistan Navy. The PAF also has a tertiary role of providing strategic air transport...
is destroyed or crippled to an extent where it can no longer conduct aerial operations such as no longer maintaining air superiority, cannot strike enemy targets or can no longer be able to provide air cover to the troops on the ground. - An attack on any of Pakistan's strategic targets such as dams, bridges, military industries or nuclear installations like Tarbela, Mangla, Kahuta, Chashma, Taxila etc.
- Imposition of a naval blockade on Pakistan to an extent that it strangulates the continued transportation of vital supplies and adversely affects the war-waging stamina of the country. Pakistan's southern port cities of KarachiKarachiKarachi is the largest city, main seaport and the main financial centre of Pakistan, as well as the capital of the province of Sindh. The city has an estimated population of 13 to 15 million, while the total metropolitan area has a population of over 18 million...
and GwadarGwadarGwadar also known as Godar is a developing port city on the southwestern Arabian Sea coast of Pakistan. It is the district headquarters of Gwadar District in Balochistan province and has a population of approximately 50,000.Gwadar is strategically located at the apex of the Arabian Sea and at the...
are blockaded and the Pakistan NavyPakistan NavyThe Pakistan Navy is the naval warfare/service branch of the Pakistan Armed Forces. Pakistan's Navy is responsible for Pakistan's coastline along the Arabian Sea and the defense of important civilian harbors and military bases...
is either destroyed to crippled to an extent where it cannot break the blockade or can no longer destroy enemy warships or conduct sea operations. - Indian crossing of the Line of ControlLine of ControlThe term Line of Control refers to the military control line between the Indian- and Pakistani-controlled parts of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir—a line which, to this day, does not constitute a legally recognized international boundary but is the de facto border...
to a level that it threatens Pakistan's control over Pakistani-Administered Kashmir. - Chemical or Biological weapons are used against Pakistan.