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Israel and weapons of mass destruction
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Israel is widely believed to possess an estimated 75 to 200 nuclear warheads and medium-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering those warheads. Officially Israel neither confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons. The US Congress Office of Technology Assessment has recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared chemical warfare capabilities, and an offensive biological warfare program.
Although Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, it took part in a regional conference with the Union for the Mediterranean – including majority-Arab states – on 13 July 2008 to remove all weapons of mass destruction from the Middle East.
Israeli government refuses to officially confirm or deny whether it has a nuclear weapon program.
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Israel is widely believed to possess an estimated 75 to 200 nuclear warheads and medium-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering those warheads. Officially Israel neither confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons. The US Congress Office of Technology Assessment has recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared chemical warfare capabilities, and an offensive biological warfare program.
Although Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, it took part in a regional conference with the Union for the Mediterranean – including majority-Arab states – on 13 July 2008 to remove all weapons of mass destruction from the Middle East.
Nuclear weapons
The Israeli government refuses to officially confirm or deny whether it has a nuclear weapon program. It has an unofficial but rigidly enforced policy of deliberate ambiguity, saying only that it would not be the first to "introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East". In the late 1960s, Israeli Ambassador to the US Yitzhak Rabin informed the United States State Department, that its understanding of "introducing" such weapons meant that they would be tested and publicly declared, while merely possessing the weapons did not constitute "introducing" them. Israel is widely believed to be one of four nuclear-armed countries not recognized as a Nuclear Weapons State by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the other three being India, Pakistan and North Korea. The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei regards Israel as a state possessing nuclear weapons. In a December 2006 interview, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said:
Olmert's office later said that the quote was taken out of context; in other parts of the interview, Olmert refused to confirm or deny Israel's nuclear weapon status.
Development program
Israel first showed interest in procuring nuclear materials in 1949, when a unit of the IDF Science Corps carried out a two year geological survey of the Negev. One objective of this was to find sources of uranium. In June 1952, Israeli chemist Ernst David Bergmann was appointed by Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion to be the first chairman of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC). Also appointed head Division of Research and Infrastructure of the Ministry of Defense earlier that same year, Bergmann used the Defense unit as the "chief laboratory" of the IAEC, and during this time developed the capability to extract uranium from the Negev and produce indigenous heavy water.
At this point in the mid-1950s, Israel's nuclear weapons program began receiving aid from other countries. By the Suez crisis in 1956, according to the preliminary Protocol of Sèvres, France agreed to help Israel build a nuclear reactor and reprocessing plant near Dimona which used natural uranium moderated by heavy water. Plutonium production started in about 1964. Top secret British documents obtained by BBC Newsnight show that Britain made hundreds of secret shipments of restricted materials to Israel in the 1950s and 1960s. These included specialist chemicals for reprocessing and samples of fissile material—uranium-235 in 1959, and plutonium in 1966, as well as highly enriched lithium-6 which is used to boost fission bombs and fuel hydrogen bombs. The investigation also showed that Britain shipped 20 tons of heavy water directly to Israel in 1959 and 1960 to start up the Dimona reactor. The transaction was made through a Norwegian front company called Noratom which took a 2% commission on the transaction. Britain was challenged about the heavy water deal at the International Atomic Energy Agency after it was exposed on Newsnight in 2005. British Foreign Minister Kim Howells hid behind the Noratom contract and claimed this was a sale to Norway. But a former British intelligence officer who investigated the deal at the time confirmed that this was really a sale to Israel and the Noratom contract was just a charade. The Foreign Office finally admitted in March 2006 that Britain knew the destination was Israel all along.
In 1961, the Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion informed the Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker that a pilot plutonium-separation plant would be built at Dimona. British intelligence concluded from this and other information that this "can only mean that Israel intends to produce nuclear weapons". By 1969, U.S. Defense Secretary Melvin Laird believed that Israel might have a nuclear weapon that year. Later that year, U.S. President Richard Nixon in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir pressed Israel to "make no visible introduction of nuclear weapons or undertake a nuclear test program", so maintaining a policy of nuclear ambiguity. The US Central Intelligence Agency believed that Israel's first bombs may have been made with highly enriched uranium stolen in the mid-1960s from the US Navy nuclear fuel plant operated by the Nuclear Materials and Equipment Corporation, where sloppy material accounting would have masked the theft.
By 1974 US intelligence believed Israel had stockpiled a small number of fission weapons, and by 1979 were perhaps in a position so they could test a more advanced small tactical nuclear weapon or thermonuclear weapon trigger design.
The first public revelation of Israel's nuclear capability (as opposed to development program) came in the London based Sunday Times on 5 October 1986, which printed information provided by Mordechai Vanunu, formerly employed at the Negev Nuclear Research Center, a facility located in the Negev desert south of Dimona. After being abducted from Italy, Vanunu was tried in Israel and sentenced to 18 years in prison for treason and espionage. Although there had been much speculation prior to Vanunu's revelations that the Dimona site was creating nuclear weapons, Vanunu's information indicated that Israel had also built thermonuclear weapons.
In 1998, former Prime Minister Shimon Peres said that Israel "built a nuclear option, not in order to have a Hiroshima but an Oslo". The "nuclear option" may refer to a nuclear weapon or to the nuclear reactor near Dimona, which Israel claims is used for scientific research. Peres, in his capacity as the Director General of the Ministry of Defense in the early 1950s, was responsible for building Israel's nuclear capability.
Nuclear weapons capability
Current estimates of Israel's nuclear stockpile range from slightly below 100 to about 200 nuclear warheads. According to Nuclear Threat Initiative, based on Vanunu's information, Israel has approximately 100–200 nuclear explosive devices by 1980 and the Jericho missile delivery system. A United States Defense Intelligence Agency report (leaked and published in the book Rumsfeld's War: The Untold Story of America's Anti-Terrorist Commander by journalist Rowan Scarborough in 2004) estimates the number of weapons at 82. U.S. intelligence sources in the late 1990s estimated 75–130 weapons; Federation of American Scientists believes that Israel "could have produced enough plutonium for at least 100 nuclear weapons, but probably not significantly more than 200 weapons". The difference might lie in the amount of material Israel has on store versus assembled weapons, and estimates as to how much material the weapons actually use (which depends on their sophistication).
Israel has operated three modern German-built Dolphin-class submarines since 1999. Various reports indicate that these submarines are equipped with American-made Harpoon missiles modified to carry small nuclear warheads and/or, and more possible, medium range (1500-2400km) larger Israeli-made "Popeye Turbo" cruise missiles, originally developed by Israel for air-to-ground strike capability.
No known nuclear weapons test has been conducted within Israel, although the boosted weapons shown in Vanunu's photographs may well have required testing. It is also possible that the Israelis received results from French nuclear testing in the 1960s. In June 1976, the West Germany Army magazine, Wehrtechnik, claimed that a 1963 underground test took place in the Negev, and other reports indicate that some type of non-nuclear test, perhaps a zero yield or implosion test, may have occurred on 2 November 1966. In September 1979, a Vela satellite detected a double flash of light near South Africa, accompanied by underwater acoustic and ionospheric effects. It has been speculated that this flash of light may have come from a 3 kiloton oceanic nuclear explosion, which may have been a joint nuclear test between Israel and South Africa (see and Israel-South Africa relations). However, recently declassified information about the event concludes that it "was probably not from a nuclear explosion, although [it cannot be ruled] out that this signal was of nuclear origin.".
In an interview the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appeared to have admitted that Israel possesses nuclear weapons. However, an Israeli spokesman later stated that Olmert meant to give no such statement, and there has been no change in policy on nuclear weapons.
On 1 February 2007, President Chirac of France commented on the nuclear ambitions of Iran, hinting on possible nuclear countermeasures from Israel:
- "Where will it drop it, this bomb? On Israel? It would not have gone 200 metres into the atmosphere before Tehran would be razed".
In arguing that the United States should directly talk to Iran rather than through intermediaries, former President Jimmy Carter stated in May 2008 that Israel has "150 or more" nuclear weapons in its arsenal.
Timetable of estimates of the Israeli nuclear arsenal
The State of Israel has never made public any details or confirmations of its nuclear capability or arsenal. The following is a history of estimates by many different reputable sources on the size and strength of Israel's nuclear arsenal.
- 1967 (Six Day War)- 2 bombs; 13 bombs
- 1969- 5-6 bombs of 19 kilotons yield each
- 1973 (Yom Kippur War)- 13 bombs; 20 nuclear missiles plus developed a suitcase bomb
- 1974- 3 capable artillery battalions each with 12 175 mm tubes and a total of 108 warheads; 10 bombs
- 1976- 10-20 nuclear weapons
- 1980- 200 bombs
- 1984- 12-31 atomic bombs; 31 plutonium bombs and 10 uranium bombs
- 1985- at least 100 nuclear bombs
- 1986- 100 to 200 fission bombs and a number of fusion bombs
- 1991- 50-60 to 200-300
- 1992- more than 200 bombs
- 1994- 64-112 bombs (5 kg/warhead); 50 nuclear tipped Jericho missiles, 200 total
- 1995- 66-116 bombs (at 5 kg/warhead); 70-80 bombs; "A complete Repertoire" (neutron bombs, nuclear mines, suitcase bombs, submarine borne)
- 1996- 60-80 plutonium weapons, maybe more than 100 assembled, ER variants (neutron bombs), varitable yields
- 1997- More than 400 deliverable thermonuclear and nuclear weapons
- 2002– Between 75 and 200 weapons
The figure dropped between 1997 and 2002 due to satellite photographs showing the power of the reactor had not increased since the 1970s.
Chemical weapons
Israel has signed but not ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). There are speculations that a chemical weapons program might be located at the Israel Institute for Biological Research () in Ness Ziona .
190 liters of dimethyl methylphosphonate, a CWC schedule 2 chemical used in the synthesis of Sarin nerve gas, was discovered in the cargo of El Al Flight 1862 after it crashed in 1992 en route to Tel Aviv. Israel insisted the material was non-toxic, was to have been used to test filters that protect against chemical weapons, and that it had been clearly listed on the cargo manifest in accordance with international regulations. The shipment was from a U.S. chemical plant to the IIBR under a U.S. Department of Commerce license.
In 1993, the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment WMD proliferation assessment recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared offensive chemical warfare capabilities. Former US deputy assistant secretary of defense responsible for chemical and biological defense, Bill Richardson, said in 1998 "I have no doubt that Israel has worked on both chemical and biological offensive things for a long time ... There's no doubt they've had stuff for years".
Biological weapons
Israel is not a signatory to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). It is assumed that the Israel Institute for Biological Research in Ness Ziona develops vaccines and antidotes for chemical and biological warfare. While it is believed that Israel is not currently producing chemical or biological weapons, there remains speculation that Israel's ability to start production and dissemination, if necessary, remains active.
In 1993, the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment WMD proliferation assessment recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having an undeclared offensive biological warfare program.
Delivery systems
Missiles
- Israel is known to have tested two versions of the Jericho missile system. The Jericho I with a range of 500km and the Jericho II with a range of 1,500km.
- The Shavit rocket is used for inserting objects into a low earth orbit.
- Third version of the Jericho missile is possible. It has been speculated that Jericho III entered service in mid-2005. On 17 January, 2008 Israel test fired a multi-stage ballistic missile believed to be of the Jericho III type. With a payload of 1,000 - 1,300 kg it is estimated to have a range of 4,800 km, or 7,800km with a payload of 350 kg (one Israeli nuclear warhead). If true, that would give Israel, at least, nuclear strike capability against Africa, Europe, and most of Asia.
- Popeye turbo cruise missile with a range of 1,500km.
Aircraft
Israel lacks strategic bombers to deliver nuclear weapons over a long-range, although its F-16 fighter aircraft have been cited as possible nuclear delivery systems. The U.S. Air Force uses the F-15 to deliver tactical nuclear weapons.
The Israeli Air Force possesses the following types of fighter aircraft:
Marine
See also
External links
- , New Statesman by Meirion Jones, 10 March 2006
- , BBC, 10 March 2006
- by Michael Crick, BBC Newsnight
- in Israel Special Weapons Guide, Federation of American Scientists
- at Nuclear Threat Initiative
- Avner Cohen's website, including
- - Israel, the bomb and the NPT in the Nixon era, based on
- by Dmitry Chirkin, Pravda. Ru
- by Yehiam Weitz, Haaretz, January 14, 2005
- The Israel Institute for Biological Research
- at Nuclear Files.org, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
- Current information on nuclear stockpiles in Israel at Nuclear Files.org, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
- , Avner Cohen, The Nonproliferation Review/Fall-Winter 2001
- , Pentagon study about nuclear nonproliferation in Middle East, by George Bisharat, LA Times, December 2005
- by Peter Beaumont and Conal Urquhart, The Observer, October 12, 2003
- By Avner Cohen and William Burr, Washington Post, April 30, 2006
- by Lt. Col. Warner D. Farr, US Army.
- BBC News 26 May 2008
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