International Futures
Encyclopedia
Barry B. Hughes
Barry B. Hughes is the John Evans Professor at the University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of International Studies. He is the current director of the Pardee Center for International Futures, a center for long-term, systemic thinking on political, economic, social and environmental issues. Dr...
of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies
Josef Korbel School of International Studies
The Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver is a professional school in international affairs offering undergraduate, graduate, and doctoral opportunities. It is a full member of the Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs , a grouping of...
at the University of Denver
University of Denver
The University of Denver is currently ranked 82nd among all public and private "National Universities" by U.S. News & World Report in the 2012 rankings....
in Colorado
Colorado
Colorado is a U.S. state that encompasses much of the Rocky Mountains as well as the northeastern portion of the Colorado Plateau and the western edge of the Great Plains...
, the model is free for public use in both its online and downloadable forms.
There are three main functions to IFs, which each provide users with different opportunities to access historic or forecast data for different issue areas: data analysis, scenario analysis, and display.
Data analysis
World map
A world map is a map of the surface of the Earth, which may be made using any of a number of different map projections. A map projection is any method of representing the surface of a sphere or other three-dimensional body on a plane....
. Using cross-sectional analysis, users can select from over 1,000 historical variables
Variable (mathematics)
In mathematics, a variable is a value that may change within the scope of a given problem or set of operations. In contrast, a constant is a value that remains unchanged, though often unknown or undetermined. The concepts of constants and variables are fundamental to many areas of mathematics and...
and plot them against up to 5 independent variables. It is then possible to animate the map to see the cross-sectional relationship changes across the 40+ years of data in the database
Database
A database is an organized collection of data for one or more purposes, usually in digital form. The data are typically organized to model relevant aspects of reality , in a way that supports processes requiring this information...
. Longitudinally, users can plot the relationship between a dependent variable and time, from 1960 through the most recent data year available. A world map allows users to display data from any of the series.
Scenario analysis
Variable (mathematics)
In mathematics, a variable is a value that may change within the scope of a given problem or set of operations. In contrast, a constant is a value that remains unchanged, though often unknown or undetermined. The concepts of constants and variables are fundamental to many areas of mathematics and...
that are used in the model. The Scenario Analysis module lets users can create their own global scenario or load a pre-run global scenario in their field of interest. For example, to analyze the effects of a policy intervention on different sub-models and variables within the model, make the changes to the appropriate variable and then analyze the results in comparison to the base-case. Many pre-run scenarios come packaged with the model, including work that has been completed for UNEP and NIC
NIC
- Banking and insurance companies:* National Insurance Company Limited, India.* National Insurance Company, Pakistan.* National Insurance Corporation, Kenya.* National Insurance Corporation, Tanzania.* National Insurance Corporation, Uganda....
.
Display
World Values Survey
The World Values Survey is a global research project that explores people’s values and beliefs, how they change over time and what social and political impact they have. It is carried out by a worldwide network of social scientists who, since 1981, have conducted representative national surveys in...
, Gini coefficient
Gini coefficient
The Gini coefficient is a measure of statistical dispersion developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper "Variability and Mutability" ....
, the Millennium Development Goals
Millennium Development Goals
The Millennium Development Goals are eight international development goals that all 193 United Nations member states and at least 23 international organizations have agreed to achieve by the year 2015...
, social accounting matrix
Social accounting matrix
A Social Accounting Matrix represents flows of all economic transactions that take place within an economy . It is at the core, a matrix representation of the National Accounts for a given country, but can be extended to include non-national accounting flows, and created for whole regions or area...
, advanced sustainability analysis, and World Bank
World Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...
financial flows.
Model structure
The model incorporates dynamically linked sub-models. They include: population, economic, agricultural, educational, energy, socio-political, international political, environmental, health, and technology.The help system that accompanies the software provides an extensive overview of the model structure and computer code used to write the model.
Pardee Center for IFs
The project recently received a gift from Frederick S. Pardee, formerly of RANDRAND
RAND Corporation is a nonprofit global policy think tank first formed to offer research and analysis to the United States armed forces by Douglas Aircraft Company. It is currently financed by the U.S. government and private endowment, corporations including the healthcare industry, universities...
, to construct the Pardee Center for International Futures. the University of Denver. It is responsible for the further institutionalization of the software, training sessions, and the continued work on the Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) volumes. The first PPHP volume discusses reduction in global poverty; the second, global education; the third, health care systems; the fourth, global infrastructure; the fifth, global governance.
The journal Poverty and Public Policy reviewed the first PPHP volume, and concluded the following:
- For all their fine effort in data assembly and analysis, Hughes et al. intended that their first volume’s main contribution should be one not of prediction, but of promoting thought about poverty policy. Their attractively presented and lucid volume succeeds in this endeavor; it very usefully fulfills its promise to the student and policymaker.