Illegal immigrant population of the United States
Encyclopedia
The actual size and the origin of the Illegal immigrant population in the United States is uncertain and difficult to ascertain because of difficulty in accurately counting individuals in this population. National surveys, administrative data and other sources of information provide inaccurate measures of the size of the illegal immigrant population and current estimates based on this data indicate that the current population may range from 7 million to 20 million.
An often used number in 2008 is 11 million. This is a decline from the historic peak of 12.5 million seen in 2007.
, the Pew Hispanic Center, the US Census Bureau
and others. Since undocumented immigrants have many reasons for not answering the census correctly and no penalties for answering the census incorrectly, a direct subtraction has a well-known source of undercount error and has to be corrected. All known users of this methodology correct the foreign born population (about 35–50 million) by 10–40% (3–12 million) to account for this undercount effect. Critics claim this correction is in error no matter which size correction is used.
Using the residual methodology with a minimal 10% foreign born undercount correction (reason for correction size unstated) for the 2000 census and a 700,000 net undocumented immigrant increase/year assumption and data from the March 2004 Current Population Survey, Pew estimated 10.3 million unauthorized immigrants in 2004. Assuming the same rate of growth Pew projected this population reached at least 11 million as of March 2005.
The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that in the 1980s the net advance of the undocumented population was at the 130,000 per year, increasing to 450,000 per year from 1990–1994, and further increasing to 750,000 per year from 1995–1999, and staying at 700,000–850,000+ per year since about 2000. Undocumented Mexican immigration amounts to about 500,000 per year of this influx since about 1999. According to the same Pew Hispanic Center study as of March 2005, the undocumented population had reached 11 million or more including more than 6.5 million undocumented Mexicans (~60% of all undocumented immigrants). Assuming the same rate of growth as in recent years gives about 12 million undocumented immigrants in the United States as of January 2006, increasing at 700,000–850,000 per year with undocumented Mexicans amounting to about 60%+ (7+ million) of the total by 2006. By September 2006 the illegal population is thought to be about 13 million. About one-sixth of the undocumented population – about 2.0 million people – is under 18 years of age.
After 2000 the estimation of the growth of the undocumented population becomes more difficult because of a lack of good information. The rate of growth of the undocumented population is estimated with the Consumer Price Survey data [2004] which suffers from the same under counting problems of the Census plus the problem of a much smaller statistical sample used of only 10,000–20,000. Its accuracy may well be suspect for lack of a truly representative "random" sample and well known non-random distribution of the undocumented immigrant populations. Using these techniques Pew comes up with from 12+ million undocumented aliens in January 2006 with an estimated growth rate of 700,000–850,000 net illegal aliens per year. This is the "consensus" number used by most reporters. The unstated cumulative error in total illegal aliens by 2006 could easily be an additional 8 million undocumented immigrants or more and the error in the growth rate since 2000 could also be very large but again is unstated by Pew and others. There is a high probability of the undocumented immigrant population's size in 2006 being significantly larger than the 12 million predicted as all additional information points to a significant increase (300+ %) in the advance rate of undocumented immigrants after 2000 not a reduction as initially predicted by Pew.
Investigative journalists Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele estimates in Time magazine in its September 12, 2004 issue, that the number of undocumented immigrantsentering into the U.S. that year will total 3 million per year – enough to fill 22,000 Boeing 737-700 airliners, or 60 flights every day for a year.
In 2006 legal immigrants to the United States now number approximately 1,000,000 legal immigrants per year of which about 600,000 are Change of Status immigrants who already are in the U.S. Legal immigrants to the United States are now at their highest level ever at over 35,000,000. Net advance by illegal aliens has also soared from about 130,000 per year in the 1970s, to 300,000+ per year in the 1980s to over 500,000 per year in the 1990s to over 700,000 per year in the 2000s. Total entrance by illegal aliens may be as high as 1,500,000 per year [in 2006] with a net of at least 700,000 more illegal aliens arriving each year to join the 12,000,000 to 20,000,000 that are already here. (Pew Hispanic Data Estimates http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/44.pdf)
' investigators came up with another way to attack this very difficult problem. They made the assumption that the amount of remittances
(money sent back to Mexico) is directly proportional to the number of Mexican immigrants in the United States. Other data used for their estimates are the increases of households and school enrollment in Mexican immigrant communities. They conclude that the number of illegal aliens in the United States may well be twice the official number put out by the U.S. Census of 9 million and may be 20 million people or higher. Information from The Mexican Central Bank
details the remittances and shows their growth. According to that data, remittances stayed fairly stable until 2000 when a steady and dramatic increase began. The change in remittances between 1997 and 1999 is most likely a problem in accounting – the three year average is still about 450 thousand/year consistent with other data. The agreement with the Pew estimate is reasonably good up to 2001 where there is a significant difference – just where the Pew and Census data becomes harder to extrapolate because of lack of good data. Using this technique Bear Sterns investigators come up with a possible illegal population of 20 million or greater. (See figure for calculation) Other data confirming their estimates are the dramatic increases of households and school enrollment in Mexican immigrant communities (read their report for more details). Border Arrest data do not show this dramatic increase in apprehensions.
Critics of this estimate like Jeffrey Passel claim a probable over count by Bear Stearns due to a failure to separate remittances from working class immigrants from funds transfers for real estate purchases and improvement by the affluent.
The data used in this section is "Remittances INTO Mexico" and does NOT accurately represent "Remittances FROM the USA INTO Mexico" as the article would suggest, rather in is the total "Remittances INTO Mexico from ALL other countries".
Foreign investment in Mexico by businesses located in China and Venezuela have increased employment opportunities in Mexico. Reverse migration of immigrants from the US back to Mexico began in 2006, and this has reduced the overall population of the US. Approximately 0.5 million dwellings have become permanently vacant as a result of a reduction in the illegal immigrant population. The greatest impact has been on the California economy, where illegal immigrants comprise approximately 1/3 of the total population. Reduced housing demand created permanent unemployment for hundreds of thousands of building contractors, realtors, and mortgage brokers.
The number of illegal immigrants declined by 1.5 million since 2007, or about 12% of the total illegal immigrant workforce. The economic decline cause by reduced spending in the US occurred at the same time as a rise in unemployment of approximately 1 million legal US workers that provide goods and services for the illegal immigrant population.
Economic activity produced by illegal immigrant spending employs a total of about 5% of the total US workforce. According to UCLA research, immigrants produce $150 billion of economic activity equivalent to spending stimulus every year. Nearly every dollar earned by illegal immigrants is spent immediately, and the average wage for US citizens is $10.25/hour with an average of 34 hours per week, so approximately 8 million US jobs are dependent upon economic activity produced by illegal immigrant activities within the US. [How is this conclusion appropriately drawn from the previous statement?]
, 6 percent from Europe
and Canada
, with the remaining 4 percent from the rest of the world http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/44.pdf.
The number of Mexican legal immigrants and Mexican illegal aliens in the United States has grown quite rapidly over the past 35 years, increasing almost 15-fold from about 760,000 in the 1970 Census to more than 11 million in 2004–an average annual growth rate of more than 8 percent, maintained over more than 3 decades. This remarkable growth has been largely driven by the encroachment of illegal aliens. On average the net Mexican population living in the United States has grown by at least a half million people a year over the past decade. About 80 to 85 percent of the immigration from Mexico and Central America in recent years has been illegal. (Pew report Figure 4 and page 2)
An often used number in 2008 is 11 million. This is a decline from the historic peak of 12.5 million seen in 2007.
Residual method
The “residual.S. census to obtain the unauthorized immigrant (residual) population. This methodology is used by the US Department of Homeland SecurityUnited States Department of Homeland Security
The United States Department of Homeland Security is a cabinet department of the United States federal government, created in response to the September 11 attacks, and with the primary responsibilities of protecting the territory of the United States and protectorates from and responding to...
, the Pew Hispanic Center, the US Census Bureau
United States Census Bureau
The United States Census Bureau is the government agency that is responsible for the United States Census. It also gathers other national demographic and economic data...
and others. Since undocumented immigrants have many reasons for not answering the census correctly and no penalties for answering the census incorrectly, a direct subtraction has a well-known source of undercount error and has to be corrected. All known users of this methodology correct the foreign born population (about 35–50 million) by 10–40% (3–12 million) to account for this undercount effect. Critics claim this correction is in error no matter which size correction is used.
Using the residual methodology with a minimal 10% foreign born undercount correction (reason for correction size unstated) for the 2000 census and a 700,000 net undocumented immigrant increase/year assumption and data from the March 2004 Current Population Survey, Pew estimated 10.3 million unauthorized immigrants in 2004. Assuming the same rate of growth Pew projected this population reached at least 11 million as of March 2005.
The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that in the 1980s the net advance of the undocumented population was at the 130,000 per year, increasing to 450,000 per year from 1990–1994, and further increasing to 750,000 per year from 1995–1999, and staying at 700,000–850,000+ per year since about 2000. Undocumented Mexican immigration amounts to about 500,000 per year of this influx since about 1999. According to the same Pew Hispanic Center study as of March 2005, the undocumented population had reached 11 million or more including more than 6.5 million undocumented Mexicans (~60% of all undocumented immigrants). Assuming the same rate of growth as in recent years gives about 12 million undocumented immigrants in the United States as of January 2006, increasing at 700,000–850,000 per year with undocumented Mexicans amounting to about 60%+ (7+ million) of the total by 2006. By September 2006 the illegal population is thought to be about 13 million. About one-sixth of the undocumented population – about 2.0 million people – is under 18 years of age.
After 2000 the estimation of the growth of the undocumented population becomes more difficult because of a lack of good information. The rate of growth of the undocumented population is estimated with the Consumer Price Survey data [2004] which suffers from the same under counting problems of the Census plus the problem of a much smaller statistical sample used of only 10,000–20,000. Its accuracy may well be suspect for lack of a truly representative "random" sample and well known non-random distribution of the undocumented immigrant populations. Using these techniques Pew comes up with from 12+ million undocumented aliens in January 2006 with an estimated growth rate of 700,000–850,000 net illegal aliens per year. This is the "consensus" number used by most reporters. The unstated cumulative error in total illegal aliens by 2006 could easily be an additional 8 million undocumented immigrants or more and the error in the growth rate since 2000 could also be very large but again is unstated by Pew and others. There is a high probability of the undocumented immigrant population's size in 2006 being significantly larger than the 12 million predicted as all additional information points to a significant increase (300+ %) in the advance rate of undocumented immigrants after 2000 not a reduction as initially predicted by Pew.
Investigative journalists Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele estimates in Time magazine in its September 12, 2004 issue, that the number of undocumented immigrantsentering into the U.S. that year will total 3 million per year – enough to fill 22,000 Boeing 737-700 airliners, or 60 flights every day for a year.
In 2006 legal immigrants to the United States now number approximately 1,000,000 legal immigrants per year of which about 600,000 are Change of Status immigrants who already are in the U.S. Legal immigrants to the United States are now at their highest level ever at over 35,000,000. Net advance by illegal aliens has also soared from about 130,000 per year in the 1970s, to 300,000+ per year in the 1980s to over 500,000 per year in the 1990s to over 700,000 per year in the 2000s. Total entrance by illegal aliens may be as high as 1,500,000 per year [in 2006] with a net of at least 700,000 more illegal aliens arriving each year to join the 12,000,000 to 20,000,000 that are already here. (Pew Hispanic Data Estimates http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/44.pdf)
| Mexican Remittances and Illegal Population Growth | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | * Remittances Billions |
Remittances % Increase per year |
Illegal ** Mexicans Millions |
Illegal Increase thous./yr |
Pew *** est. thous./yr |
|
| 1995 | 3.673 | 3.000 | ||||
| 1996 | 4.224 | 15.0% | 3.450 | 450 | 400 | |
| 1997 | 4.865 | 15.2% | 3.974 | 524 | 400 | |
| 1998 | 4.744 | |||||
| 3.875 | ||||||
| 400 | ||||||
| 1999 | 5.910 | 24.6% | 4.827 | 952 | 400 | |
| 2000 | 6.573 | 11.2% | 5.369 | 542 | 500 | |
| 2001 | 8.895 | 35.3% | 7.265 | 1,897 | 500 | |
| 2002 | 9.814 | 10.3% | 8.016 | 751 | 500 | |
| 2003 | 13.396 | 36.5% | 10.941 | 2,926 | 500 | |
| 2004 | 16.613 | 24.0% | 13.569 | 2,628 | 500 | |
| 2005 | 20.035 | 20.6% | 16.364 | 2,795 | 500 | |
| Non-Mex. | 4.0 to 6.0 | |||||
| Total illegal aliens estimated by Bear Stearns | 20.0 to 22.0 million** | |||||
| Assumes the amount of remittances from the U.S. is proportional to the number of Mexicans living in the U.S. As can be seen the Pew and Bear Stern numbers are in basic agreement to about 2000. Total remittances in 2005 were about 20 billion. Sources: * Banco de Mexico http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTPAYMENTREMMITTANCE/Resources/BancodeMexicoRicardoMedina.pdf ** Bear Stern’s investigators http://www.bearstearns.com/bscportal/pdfs/underground.pdf *** Pew data http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/44.pdf |
||||||
Remittances to Mexico
Bear StearnsBear Stearns
The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. based in New York City, was a global investment bank and securities trading and brokerage, until its sale to JPMorgan Chase in 2008 during the global financial crisis and recession...
' investigators came up with another way to attack this very difficult problem. They made the assumption that the amount of remittances
Remittances
A remittance is a transfer of money by a foreign worker to his or her home country. Note that in 19th century usage a remittance man was someone exiled overseas and sent an allowance on condition that he not return home....
(money sent back to Mexico) is directly proportional to the number of Mexican immigrants in the United States. Other data used for their estimates are the increases of households and school enrollment in Mexican immigrant communities. They conclude that the number of illegal aliens in the United States may well be twice the official number put out by the U.S. Census of 9 million and may be 20 million people or higher. Information from The Mexican Central Bank
Banco de México
The Bank of Mexico , abbreviated BdeM or Banxico, is Mexico's central bank and lender of last resort. The Bank of Mexico is autonomous in exercising its functions, and its main objective is to achieve stability in the purchasing power of the national currency.On December 15, 2009, Agustín Carstens...
details the remittances and shows their growth. According to that data, remittances stayed fairly stable until 2000 when a steady and dramatic increase began. The change in remittances between 1997 and 1999 is most likely a problem in accounting – the three year average is still about 450 thousand/year consistent with other data. The agreement with the Pew estimate is reasonably good up to 2001 where there is a significant difference – just where the Pew and Census data becomes harder to extrapolate because of lack of good data. Using this technique Bear Sterns investigators come up with a possible illegal population of 20 million or greater. (See figure for calculation) Other data confirming their estimates are the dramatic increases of households and school enrollment in Mexican immigrant communities (read their report for more details). Border Arrest data do not show this dramatic increase in apprehensions.
Critics of this estimate like Jeffrey Passel claim a probable over count by Bear Stearns due to a failure to separate remittances from working class immigrants from funds transfers for real estate purchases and improvement by the affluent.
The data used in this section is "Remittances INTO Mexico" and does NOT accurately represent "Remittances FROM the USA INTO Mexico" as the article would suggest, rather in is the total "Remittances INTO Mexico from ALL other countries".
Impact of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009
The global financial crisis has had a large impact on America. The construction sector and other areas illegal immigrants traditionally seek employment in have shrunk. The recession has also led to a surplus of American labor driving down the benefit of hiring illegal immigrants. It is estimated that over a million illegal immigrants have returned to Mexico since the beginning of the crisis.Foreign investment in Mexico by businesses located in China and Venezuela have increased employment opportunities in Mexico. Reverse migration of immigrants from the US back to Mexico began in 2006, and this has reduced the overall population of the US. Approximately 0.5 million dwellings have become permanently vacant as a result of a reduction in the illegal immigrant population. The greatest impact has been on the California economy, where illegal immigrants comprise approximately 1/3 of the total population. Reduced housing demand created permanent unemployment for hundreds of thousands of building contractors, realtors, and mortgage brokers.
The number of illegal immigrants declined by 1.5 million since 2007, or about 12% of the total illegal immigrant workforce. The economic decline cause by reduced spending in the US occurred at the same time as a rise in unemployment of approximately 1 million legal US workers that provide goods and services for the illegal immigrant population.
Economic activity produced by illegal immigrant spending employs a total of about 5% of the total US workforce. According to UCLA research, immigrants produce $150 billion of economic activity equivalent to spending stimulus every year. Nearly every dollar earned by illegal immigrants is spent immediately, and the average wage for US citizens is $10.25/hour with an average of 34 hours per week, so approximately 8 million US jobs are dependent upon economic activity produced by illegal immigrant activities within the US. [How is this conclusion appropriately drawn from the previous statement?]
Origins
According to a Pew Hispanic Center report, Mexicans make up 57 percent of immigrants present in the United States illegally. Another 24 percent are from other Latin American countries. Approximately 9 percent are from AsiaAsia
Asia is the world's largest and most populous continent, located primarily in the eastern and northern hemispheres. It covers 8.7% of the Earth's total surface area and with approximately 3.879 billion people, it hosts 60% of the world's current human population...
, 6 percent from Europe
Europe
Europe is, by convention, one of the world's seven continents. Comprising the westernmost peninsula of Eurasia, Europe is generally 'divided' from Asia to its east by the watershed divides of the Ural and Caucasus Mountains, the Ural River, the Caspian and Black Seas, and the waterways connecting...
and Canada
Canada
Canada is a North American country consisting of ten provinces and three territories. Located in the northern part of the continent, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
, with the remaining 4 percent from the rest of the world http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/44.pdf.
| ountry of Origin (January 2006) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 6,840,000 | 57% | |||||
| Latin & Central Amer. | 3,000,000 | 24% | |||||
| Asia | 1,080,000 | 9% | |||||
| Europe + Canada | 720,000 | 6% | |||||
| Rest of World | 480,000 | 4% | |||||
The number of Mexican legal immigrants and Mexican illegal aliens in the United States has grown quite rapidly over the past 35 years, increasing almost 15-fold from about 760,000 in the 1970 Census to more than 11 million in 2004–an average annual growth rate of more than 8 percent, maintained over more than 3 decades. This remarkable growth has been largely driven by the encroachment of illegal aliens. On average the net Mexican population living in the United States has grown by at least a half million people a year over the past decade. About 80 to 85 percent of the immigration from Mexico and Central America in recent years has been illegal. (Pew report Figure 4 and page 2)
External links
- http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/44.pdf Estimates of the Size and Characteristics of the Undocumented Population
- http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=6019&sequence=0#box2 A Description of the Immigrant Population
- http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm Labor Participation less than High School
- http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/back1204.html Economy Slowed, But Immigration Didn't
- http://www.uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/publications/AnnualReportEnforcement2004.pdf Immigration Enforcement Actions: 2004
- http://pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/16.pdf The Labor Force Status of Short-Term Unauthorized Workers
- http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/forbrn.pdf Labor Statistics
- http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=133 Unauthorized Immigrant Population National and State Trends