Hype cycle
Encyclopedia
A hype cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies
Technology
Technology is the making, usage, and knowledge of tools, machines, techniques, crafts, systems or methods of organization in order to solve a problem or perform a specific function. It can also refer to the collection of such tools, machinery, and procedures. The word technology comes ;...

. The term was coined by Gartner, Inc.
Gartner
Gartner, Inc. is an information technology research and advisory firm headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, United States. It was known as GartnerGroup until 2001....


Rationale

Since 1995, Gartner
Gartner
Gartner, Inc. is an information technology research and advisory firm headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, United States. It was known as GartnerGroup until 2001....

 has used hype cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies. Hype cycles also show how and when technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and become widely accepted. According to Gartner, hype cycles aim to separate the hype from the reality, and enable CIO
Chief information officer
Chief information officer , or information technology director, is a job title commonly given to the most senior executive in an enterprise responsible for the information technology and computer systems that support enterprise goals...

s and CEO
Chief executive officer
A chief executive officer , managing director , Executive Director for non-profit organizations, or chief executive is the highest-ranking corporate officer or administrator in charge of total management of an organization...

s to decide whether or not a particular technology is ready for adoption. A longer-term historical perspective on such cycles can be found in the research of the economist Carlota Perez
Carlota Perez
Carlota Perez is a Venezuelan scholar and expert on technology and socio-economic development most famous for her concept of Techno-Economic Paradigm Shifts and her theory of great surges, a further development of the Kondratieff waves.-Career:...

.

Five phases

A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises five phases:
  1. "Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
  2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
  3. "Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
  4. "Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
  5. "Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable
    Mature technology
    A mature technology is a technology that has been in use for long enough that most of its initial faults and inherent problems have been removed or reduced by further development...

     and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.


The term is now used more broadly in the marketing
Marketing
Marketing is the process used to determine what products or services may be of interest to customers, and the strategy to use in sales, communications and business development. It generates the strategy that underlies sales techniques, business communication, and business developments...

 of new technologies.

Mastering the Hype Cycle

In September 2008, Harvard Business Press
Harvard Business Press
Harvard Business Press is the book-specific division of Harvard Business School Publishing, owned by the Harvard Business School, based in Boston, MA.The Press publishes general interest books in addition to business books...

 published Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Adopt the Right Innovation at the Right Time by Gartner analysts Jackie Fenn and Mark Raskino. The book explains the hype cycle research methodology in detail and it lays out a clear approach to innovation adoption to replace the typical hype-driven approach.

Hype in new media

Hype in new media (in the more general media sense of the term "hype") plays a large part in the adoption of new media forms by society. Applying the idea of the hype cycle to new media technologies such as the iPod
IPod
iPod is a line of portable media players created and marketed by Apple Inc. The product line-up currently consists of the hard drive-based iPod Classic, the touchscreen iPod Touch, the compact iPod Nano, and the ultra-compact iPod Shuffle...

, which was found to have failure rates of 13.7% in a 2005 MacInTouch
MacInTouch
MacInTouch is a daily news and information website that provides independent coverage of Apple's Mac and iOS platforms, along with other topics as security and privacy, networking, and technological innovation. MacInTouch's curated "Reader Reports" publish experiences, commentary and analysis from...

 study in the middle of the iPod boom, we can see the same trends may apply for forms of new media as they apply to technology in general.

Terry Flew states that hype (generally the enthusiastic and strong feeling around new forms of media and technology in which we expect they will modify everything for the better) surrounding new media technologies and their popularisation, along with the development of the Internet, is a common characteristic. But following shortly after the period of 'inflated expectations', as per the diagram above, the new media technologies quickly fall into a period of disenchantment, which is the end of the primary, and strongest, phase of hype.

Many analyses of the Internet in the 1990s featured large amounts of hype,
which as a result created "debunking" responses toward the Internet. However, such hype and the negative and positive responses toward it have now given way to research that looks empirically at new media and its impact.

Criticisms

There have been numerous criticisms
of the hype cycle, prominent among which are that it is not a cycle, that the outcome does not depend on the nature of the technology itself, that it is not scientific in nature, and that it does not reflect changes over time in the speed at which technology develops. Another is that the "cycle" has no real benefits to the development or marketing of new technologies and merely comments on pre-existing trends. Specific disadvantages when compared to, for example, technology readiness level
Technology Readiness Level
Technology Readiness Level is a measure used by some United States government agencies and many of the world's major companies to assess the maturity of evolving technologies prior to incorporating that technology into a system or subsystem...

are:
  • With the (subjective) terms disillusionment, enlightenment and expectations it can not be described objectively or clear where technology now really is.
  • The terms are misleading in the sense that you get the wrong idea what you can use a technology for: I do not want to be disappointed, so should I stay away from technology in the Through of Disillusionment?
  • No action perspective is offered to move technology to a next phase.

External links

The source of this article is wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.  The text of this article is licensed under the GFDL.
 
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