Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Encyclopedia
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction delivers national and global weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses to its Partners and External User Communities...

 (NCEP), a part of the National Weather Service
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service , once known as the Weather Bureau, is one of the six scientific agencies that make up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States government...

, which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , pronounced , like "noah", is a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce focused on the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere...

 (NOAA) of the U.S. government. The HPC serves as a center of excellence in quantitative precipitation
Precipitation (meteorology)
In meteorology, precipitation In meteorology, precipitation In meteorology, precipitation (also known as one of the classes of hydrometeors, which are atmospheric water phenomena is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls under gravity. The main forms of precipitation...

 forecasting, medium range forecasting
Weather forecasting
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the nineteenth century...

 (three to eight days) and the interpretation of numerical weather prediction models
Computer simulation
A computer simulation, a computer model, or a computational model is a computer program, or network of computers, that attempts to simulate an abstract model of a particular system...

.

The HPC issues storm summaries on storm systems bringing significant rainfall and snowfall to portions of the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...

. Advisories are also issued for tropical cyclone
Tropical cyclone
A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure center and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones strengthen when water evaporated from the ocean is released as the saturated air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor...

s which have moved inland, weakened to tropical depression strength, and are no longer the responsibility of the National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center , located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida, is the division of the National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th...

. The HPC also acts as the backup office to the National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center , located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida, is the division of the National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th...

 in the event of a complete communications failure.

History

From the early days of organized weather collection in the United States, a central facility was used to gather and disseminate data. Originally, this task occupied a single room within the United States Army Signal Service in Washington, D.C.
Washington, D.C.
Washington, D.C., formally the District of Columbia and commonly referred to as Washington, "the District", or simply D.C., is the capital of the United States. On July 16, 1790, the United States Congress approved the creation of a permanent national capital as permitted by the U.S. Constitution....

  Reports were collected via telegraph and general forecasts were made for the country.

While HPC's roots lie deep in the past, the organization can be most directly traced to the formation of the Analysis Center by Circular Letter 39-42, signed by Weather Bureau Director Francis W. Reichelderfer on March 5, 1942. Operations began on March 16, 1942, with the unit collocated with the Weather Bureau Central Office at 24th and M Streets NW in Washington, D.C. Initially the unit was sometimes referred to as the Master Analysis Center.

In 1947, the Analysis Center was combined with the Air Force Master Analysis Center and the Navy Weather Central to create the Weather Bureau-Air Force-Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center. Operations commenced on June 16, 1947, at 24th and M Streets NW. By early 1950 the WBAN Analysis Center consisted of 150 employees. Medium range forecasting was done nationally to 54 hours in the future. Charts and maps were created at this facility for national distribution.

In July 1954, the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) was created to test out numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic...

 techniques by computer
Computer
A computer is a programmable machine designed to sequentially and automatically carry out a sequence of arithmetic or logical operations. The particular sequence of operations can be changed readily, allowing the computer to solve more than one kind of problem...

. This unit co-located with the WBAN analysis center to form the National Weather Analysis Center, which was located in Suitland, Maryland. When the two units merged, the name changed to the National Meteorological Center (NMC) in January 1958. When the JNWPU dissolved in 1961, NMC became an independent organization from Global Weather Central and Fleet Numerical Weather Central. Research and computer processing abilities increased over the years, which allowed for the first global forecast model to run by June 1966. By January 1975, much of the facility, minus the computers, moved to the World Weather Building, located in nearby Camp Springs, Maryland
Camp Springs, Maryland
Camp Springs is an unincorporated area and census-designated place in Prince George's County, Maryland, United States. The population was 17,968 at the 2000 census. Camp Springs is not an official post office designation, but rather the area is divided between the surrounding mailing addresses...

.

NMC changed its name to NCEP, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction on October 1, 1995. The HPC become a subunit of NCEP, as did a number of other national centers such as the Climate Prediction Center
Climate Prediction Center
The Climate Prediction Center is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which are a part of NOAA's National Weather Service. It is located in Camp Springs, Maryland.-Products:...

, Environmental Modeling Center
Environmental Modeling Center
The Environmental Modeling Center , improves numerical weather, marine and climate predictions at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction , through a broad program of research in data assimilation and modeling...

, National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center , located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida, is the division of the National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th...

, Ocean Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
The Ocean Prediction Center , established in 1995, is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s original six service centers. Until January 12, 2003, the name of the organization was the Marine Prediction Center. Its origins are traced back to the sinking of the RMS Titanic in...

, Storm Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
The Storm Prediction Center , located in Norman, Oklahoma, is tasked with forecasting the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the contiguous United States. The agency issues convective outlooks, mesoscale discussions, and watches as a part of this process...

, Aviation Weather Center, NCEP Central Operations, and the Space Environment Center
Space Environment Center
The Space Weather Prediction Center , formerly the Space Environment Center , is a laboratory and service center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service located in Boulder, Colorado. SWPC continually monitors and forecasts Earth's space environment,...

.

Mission

The mission of the HPC is to provide forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services to support the daily public forecasting activities of the NWS and its customers, and to provide tailored support to other government agencies in emergency and special situations.

Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF)

The QPF
Quantitative precipitation forecast
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is the expected amount of melted precipitation accumulated over a specified time period over a specified area. A QPF will be created when precipitation amounts reaching a minimum threshold are expected during the forecast's valid period...

 desks prepare and issue forecasts of accumulating (quantitative) precipitation, heavy rain, heavy snow, and highlights areas with the potential for flash flooding, with forecasts valid over the following five days. These products are sent to the National Weather Service
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service , once known as the Weather Bureau, is one of the six scientific agencies that make up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States government...

 forecast offices and are available on the Internet for public use. Heavy snow forecast products, in association with the short-range public forecast products (described below), serve as a coordinating mechanism for the national winter storm watch and warning program.

One desk of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) is co-located with the HPC QPF desks, which together form the National Precipitation Prediction Unit (NPPU). NESDIS meteorologists prepare estimates of rainfall and current trends based on satellite data, and this information is used by the Day 1 QPF forecaster to help create individual 6-hourly forecasts that cover the next 12 hours. With access to WSR-88D/Doppler radar data, satellite estimates, and NCEP model forecast data as well as current weather observations and HPC analyses, the forecaster has the latest data for use in preparation of short-range precipitation forecasts. Meteorological reasoning discussions are regularly written and issued with the forecast packages to explain and support the forecast.

Winter weather forecasts

The HPC Winter Weather Desk issues heavy snow and icing forecast products, which support the NWS winter weather watch/warning/outlook program. These forecasts are for the contiguous United States (CONUS) and issued from September 15 to May 15 each cold season. Graphical forecasts are issued twice daily at 0900 UTC and 2100 UTC (4AM/PM EST respectively), although updates may be warranted by rapidly changing conditions.

The Winter Weather Desk issues probabilistic heavy snow and icing guidance products for the next three days. The forecasts represent the probability that freezing rain or combined snow/sleet accumulations will meet specific criteria within a 24-hour period. These products are issued in probabilistic form to better represent the forecast uncertainty associated with a particular event. The Winter Weather Desk produces a heavy snow and icing discussion that provides the meteorological reasoning for the 24-hour probabilistic heavy snow and icing guidance graphics. This text message is used by internal and external clients including NWS field offices, Department of Homeland Security, FEMA, the White House, Department of Commerce, FAA, and the general meteorological community (private sector and the media).

Graphical short term forecasts

The short range forecasters are responsible for preparing forecasts for the time period of 6 through 60 hours. These products are issued twice daily using guidance from the NWS's Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale Model
North American Mesoscale Model
The North American Mesoscale Model , refers to a numerical weather prediction model run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction for short-term weather forecasting. Currently, the Weather Research and Forecasting Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model model is run as the NAM, thus, three names ...

 (NAM), as well as guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 19 European Member States and 15 Co-operating States...

 (ECMWF), the United Kingdom's Met Office
Met Office
The Met Office , is the United Kingdom's national weather service, and a trading fund of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills...

 (UKMET), the Meteorological Service of Canada, including ensembles. Coordination with the surface analysis, model diagnostics, quantitative precipitation, winter weather, and tropical forecast desks is performed during the short range forecast process to maintain internal consistency. The short range forecast products include surface pressure patterns, circulation centers and fronts for 6–60 hours, and a depiction of the types and extent of precipitation that are forecast at the valid time of the chart. In addition, discussions are written on each shift and issued with the forecast packages that highlight the meteorological reasoning behind the forecasts and significant weather across the continental United States.

Medium range forecasts

Medium range forecasters are responsible for preparing forecasts for three to seven days into the future. Surface pressure forecasts are issued three times per day, with temperature and probability of precipitation products issued twice per day, using guidance from the NWS medium range forecast model (GFS) as well as models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom's Meteorology Office (UKMET), Canadian model, the Navy NOGAPS model, and ensemble guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS).

The medium range forecast products include surface pressure patterns, circulation centers and fronts, daily maximum and minimum temperatures and anomalies, probability of precipitation in 12 hour increments, total 5-day precipitation accumulation for the next five days, and 500 hPa height forecasts for days 3-7. In addition, a narrative is issued for each set of forecasts highlighting forecast reasoning and significant weather over the Continental United States. Separate forecasts, similar to the 5-day mean products, are prepared for Hawaii.

Alaska medium range forecasts

The Alaska medium range forecasters review the latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance (similar to how the broader medium range forecasts are created) in an effort to compose the most likely forecast for Alaska and surrounding areas valid from four to eight days into the future.

The Alaska medium range discussion, 500 hPa height graphics, and surface fronts and pressures graphics for days 4-8 are issued once per day, year-round. Additionally, gridded guidance for the forecast period is issued for the following fields: maximum/minimum temperature grids, twelve hour probability of precipitation grids, as well as derived dewpoint temperature, cloud cover, precipitation type, and wind speed/direction grids at a 5 km horizontal resolution.

Model diagnostics and interpretation

The purpose of the HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion is to provide objective information and subjective interpretation concerning the current runs of the NCEP short range numerical models. The HPC model diagnostic meteorologist prepares the Model Diagnostic Discussion twice per day in two parts, corresponding to the 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC model runs. This narrative consists of three sections: an evaluation of the initialization of the NAM and GFS, a review of model trends and biases, and a description of model differences and preferences. The meteorologist reviews how the suite of models from the latest forecast cycle differ from each other in their forecasts of significant features, and makes a preference based upon all relevant current information.

Surface analysis

The HPC Surface Analysis
Surface weather analysis
Surface weather analysis is a special type of weather map that provides a view of weather elements over a geographical area at a specified time based on information from ground-based weather stations...

 is part of the NWS Unified Surface Analysis and a collaborative effort with the Ocean Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
The Ocean Prediction Center , established in 1995, is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s original six service centers. Until January 12, 2003, the name of the organization was the Marine Prediction Center. Its origins are traced back to the sinking of the RMS Titanic in...

, the Tropical Prediction Center, and the Honolulu Weather Forecast Office. The HPC focuses on the synoptic and mesoscale features over North America, primarily north of 31N. The surface analysis is a manual analysis of surface fronts and pressure over North America and adjacent oceans performed every three hours. The analysis utilizes a variety of weather data in addition to observations of surface weather conditions, such as upper air observations, global satellite imagery, Doppler radar, and model mass fields to ensure that the product is meteorologically consistent.

Tropical cyclone forecast duties

The HPC is the official backup center to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). In this capacity, the HPC is responsible for issuing all tropical cyclone products, including discussions, graphics and watches and warnings that would normally be issued by the NHC for any tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean, if NHC is unable to so.

During the tropical weather season which runs from May 15-November 30, the HPC has several other routine duties pertaining to tropical weather forecasting. Through 2008, HPC provided track forecast guidance to the NHC whenever there is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean basin west of 60W longitude. As required, this guidance is provided to the NHC four times daily for use in the tropical cyclone package issued by the NHC at 0300 UTC, 0900 UTC, 1500 UTC and 2100 UTC. The HPC participates in the Hurricane Hotline call with the NHC and other forecast offices and government agencies at 1700 UTC for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean basin west of 60W longitude. Also, points for days 6 and 7 for existing tropical cyclones east of 140W longitude, and days 3-7 to possible future tropical cyclones, are coordinated between the medium range pressures desk and NHC each day at 1700 UTC during the hurricane season.

Within the HPC tropical program, the lead forecaster on shift, who prepares the day 1 QPF, is to provide the rainfall statement for tropical cyclones that are expected to make landfall. This statement is included in the Public Advisory issued by the NHC, and is a forecast of expected rainfall amounts that will occur with the tropical cyclone.

Finally, the HPC surface analysis desk has the responsibility for issuing Public Advisories whenever a tropical cyclone has made landfall in the U.S. or adjacent parts of Mexico, has weakened below tropical storm status (i.e. to a tropical depression or post-tropical cyclone or low) and is not expected to re-emerge over water as a tropical cyclone, yet the system is still capable of producing flooding type rains. This HPC Public Advisory will continue to be issued until the flooding rainfall threat is over. The advisory will contain information on how much rainfall has occurred with a particular tropical system, and will also include forecast information on the remnants of the system.

International desks

The International desks have a variety of responsibilities, primarily the training of foreign visitors in the use of Numerical Weather Prediction products. The International desk routinely hosts visitors from Central and South America and the Caribbean. Visiting meteorologists train, and also generate forecasts for their own national centers, and assist HPC forecasters with QPF related to tropical cyclones in Central America and the Caribbean.

New Building

Construction began in May 2007 on the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP), a new building to house the NCEP Office of the Director plus five of the nine NCEP centers. The NCWCP will replace the current World Weather Building, located in Camp Springs, Maryland
Camp Springs, Maryland
Camp Springs is an unincorporated area and census-designated place in Prince George's County, Maryland, United States. The population was 17,968 at the 2000 census. Camp Springs is not an official post office designation, but rather the area is divided between the surrounding mailing addresses...

 and will be located on a new 50 acres (202,343 m²) section of the University of Maryland, College Park
University of Maryland, College Park
The University of Maryland, College Park is a top-ranked public research university located in the city of College Park in Prince George's County, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C...

M-Square Research and Technology Park.
The 268762 square feet (24,968.8 m²) building will be the new home for NOAA's Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Air Resources Laboratory and National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the NOAA/DoD/NASA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. The NCWCP building will employ approximately 800 people.
The NCEP centers to reside in the facility are the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), and NCEP Central Operations (NCO). The building was expected to open in 2010, but a work stoppage in late 2008 brought all progress to a halt for over a year. Projected completion is now summer 2012.

External links

The source of this article is wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.  The text of this article is licensed under the GFDL.
 
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