Great Transition is a vision created by the
Global Scenario GroupThe Global Scenario Group was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin, who used scenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises...
of how humanity could create a civilization that reflects egalitarian social and ecological values, affirms diversity, and defeats poverty, war, and environmental destruction.
The elements of the Great Transition vision are increased human interconnectedness, improved
quality of lifeThe term quality of life is used to evaluate the general well-being of individuals and societies. The term is used in a wide range of contexts, including the fields of international development, healthcare, and politics. Quality of life should not be confused with the concept of standard of...
, and a healthy planet.
Background
The term Great Transition was first introduced by the
Global scenario groupThe Global Scenario Group was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin, who used scenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises...
(GSG), a faculty international body of scientists convened in 1995 by the
Tellus InstituteThe Tellus Institute is a non-profit research and policy organization based in Boston, Massachusetts, in the United States. Its mission is to advance the transition to a sustainable, equitable, and humane global civilization. The Tellus Institute was founded in 1976 by Paul Raskin, Richard Rosen,...
and
Stockholm Environment InstituteThe Stockholm Environment Institute, or SEI, is a non-profit, independent research and policy institute specialising in sustainable development and environmental issues.-Mission:...
to examine the requirements for a transition to a sustainable global society. The GSG set out to describe and analyze scenarios for the future of the earth as it entered a
Planetary Phase of CivilizationThe Planetary Phase of Civilization is a concept defined by the Global Scenario Group , an environmental organization that specializes in scenario analysis and forecasting...
. The GSG's
scenario analysisScenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes . Thus, the scenario analysis, which is a main method of projections, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Instead, it presents consciously several alternative future...
resulted in a series of reports and its findings were summarized for a non-technical audience in the essay
Great Transition: the Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead.
In this essay, the
Global Scenario GroupThe Global Scenario Group was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin, who used scenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises...
explains that
civilizationCivilization is a sometimes controversial term that has been used in several related ways. Primarily, the term has been used to refer to the material and instrumental side of human cultures that are complex in terms of technology, science, and division of labor. Such civilizations are generally...
is now in a moment of transition in which “all components of
cultureCulture is a term that has many different inter-related meanings. For example, in 1952, Alfred Kroeber and Clyde Kluckhohn compiled a list of 164 definitions of "culture" in Culture: A Critical Review of Concepts and Definitions...
will change in the context of a holistic shift in the structure of society and its relation to nature…transforming values and knowledge,
demographyDemography is the statistical study of human population. It can be a very general science that can be applied to any kind of dynamic human population, that is, one that changes over time or space...
and social relations, economics and governance, and technology and the environment.” Out of the turbulence of transition, very different forms of global society could emerge. The choices we make over this next critical decade could set the trajectory of global development for generations to come. The Great Transition essay contends that the realization of a Great Transition world depends in part on whether those living today contest the current roles of transnational corporations and state governments (i.e., through the emergence of an authentic
global citizens movementIn most discussions, the global citizens movement is a socio-political process rather than a political organization or party structure. The term is often used synonymously with the anti-globalization movement or the global justice movement. Colloquially the term is also used in this imprecise manner...
). Alternate scenarios lead to varying futures ranging from Breakdown to
Policy ReformPolicy reform, in addition to its more general meanings, has been used to refer to a future scenario which relies on government action to correct economic market failures and to stimulate the technological investment necessary for sustainable development and the creation of a truly sustainable...
to
Eco-CommunalismEco-communalism is an environmental philosophy based on ideals of simple living, self-sufficiency, sustainability, and local economies. Eco-communalists envision a future in which the economic system of capitalism is replaced with a global web of economically interdependent and interconnected...
.
Alternative scenarios
The Global Scenario Group organized its scenarios into three categories: Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transition.
Conventional Worlds are futures that evolve gradually from today’s dominant forces of
globalizationGlobalization refers to the increasingly global relationships of culture, people and economic activity. Most often, it refers to economics: the global distribution of the production of goods and services, through reduction of barriers to international trade such as tariffs, export fees, and import...
:
economic interdependenceEconomic interdependence is a consequence of specialization, or the division of labor, and is almost universal. The participants in an economic system are dependent on others for the products they cannot produce efficiently for themselves. This physical interdependence implies corresponding...
deepens, dominant values spread, and developing regions converge toward rich-country patterns of production and consumption. Two variations of Conventional Worlds are Market Forces, a neo-liberal vision in which powerful global actors advance the priority of
economic growthIn economics, economic growth is defined as the increasing capacity of the economy to satisfy the wants of goods and services of the members of society. Economic growth is enabled by increases in productivity, which lowers the inputs for a given amount of output. Lowered costs increase demand...
, and
Policy ReformPolicy reform, in addition to its more general meanings, has been used to refer to a future scenario which relies on government action to correct economic market failures and to stimulate the technological investment necessary for sustainable development and the creation of a truly sustainable...
, in which governments are able to harmonize economic growth with
sustainable developmentSustainable development is a pattern of resource use, that aims to meet human needs while preserving the environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present, but also for generations to come...
objectives, such as the
Millennium Development GoalsThe Millennium Development Goals are eight international development goals that all 193 United Nations member states and at least 23 international organizations have agreed to achieve by the year 2015...
.
The Group believes that if market and policy adaptations are not sufficient to blunt
social polarizationSocial polarization is associated with the segregation within a society that may emerge from income inequality, real-estate fluctuations, economic displacements etc. and result in such differentiation that would consist of various social groups, from high-income to low-income.One of the earlier...
,
environmental degradationEnvironmental degradation is the deterioration of the environment through depletion of resources such as air, water and soil; the destruction of ecosystems and the extinction of wildlife...
, and economic instability, the danger of a deepening global crisis looms. Out of the turbulence some form of Barbarization scenario could emerge. One form this could take is an authoritarian Fortress World scenario, a kind of global apartheid with elites in protected enclaves and an impoverished majority outside. Another is Breakdown, where conflicts and crises spiral out of control, waves of disorder spread across countries and regions, and institutions collapse.
Great Transition scenarios are, in contrast, transformative scenarios. Their defining feature is the ascendancy of a new suite of values – human solidarity,
quality of lifeThe term quality of life is used to evaluate the general well-being of individuals and societies. The term is used in a wide range of contexts, including the fields of international development, healthcare, and politics. Quality of life should not be confused with the concept of standard of...
, and respect for nature. Conventional Worlds scenarios see capitalist values maintained and only
market forcesMarket Forces is a science fiction novel by Richard Morgan, first published in 2004.Set in 2049 in the wake of a global economic downturn called the Domino Recessions, it follows up-and-coming executive Chris as he plunges into the profitable field of Conflict Investment...
and incremental
policy reformPolicy reform, in addition to its more general meanings, has been used to refer to a future scenario which relies on government action to correct economic market failures and to stimulate the technological investment necessary for sustainable development and the creation of a truly sustainable...
trying to curb
environmental degradationEnvironmental degradation is the deterioration of the environment through depletion of resources such as air, water and soil; the destruction of ecosystems and the extinction of wildlife...
. Barbarization is a set of possible futures in which environmental collapse leads to an overall social collapse. The Great Transition is a pathway that finds humanity changing its relationship with the environment. It has two variants:
Eco-CommunalismEco-communalism is an environmental philosophy based on ideals of simple living, self-sufficiency, sustainability, and local economies. Eco-communalists envision a future in which the economic system of capitalism is replaced with a global web of economically interdependent and interconnected...
and New Sustainability Paradigm.
Eco-Communalism is the adoption of a lifestyle that turns to non-material dimensions of fulfillment – the quality of life, the quality of human solidarity, and the quality of the earth. It is a highly localist vision favored by some environmental subcultures and is a strong theme within the
anti-globalization movementThe anti-globalization movement, or counter-globalisation movement, is critical of the globalization of corporate capitalism. The movement is also commonly referred to as the global justice movement, alter-globalization movement, anti-globalist movement, anti-corporate globalization movement, or...
.
New Sustainability Paradigm sees
globalizationGlobalization refers to the increasingly global relationships of culture, people and economic activity. Most often, it refers to economics: the global distribution of the production of goods and services, through reduction of barriers to international trade such as tariffs, export fees, and import...
not as a threat to be resisted, but as an opportunity for forging a new category of consciousness – a
global citizenshipGlobal citizenship applies the whole world to bring world peace and the concept of citizenship to a global level and is strongly connected with the concepts of globalization and cosmopolitanism. World citizenship is a term which can be distinguished from global citizenship, although some may merge...
that understands humanity's place in the web of life and its link to the fate of the earth.
The New Sustainability Paradigm endorses many of the ideals of Eco-Communalism with its plea for new human values and empowered communities. It rejects rampant
consumerismConsumerism is a social and economic order that is based on the systematic creation and fostering of a desire to purchase goods and services in ever greater amounts. The term is often associated with criticisms of consumption starting with Thorstein Veblen...
, seeking improved human well-being through material sufficiency for all. It seeks a world where the quality of human knowledge, creativity, and self-realization – not the quantity of goods and services – signals development. It embraces equality, empowerment, and deep respect for nature. It recognizes plural paths to modernity, and welcomes regional diversity in expressing such values as freedom, equity, democracy, and sustainability. It champions subsidiarity, the principle that decision-making occurs at the most decentralized level possible.
The New Sustainability Paradigm seeks to shape the character of global civilization. It sees the
planetary phase of civilizationThe Planetary Phase of Civilization is a concept defined by the Global Scenario Group , an environmental organization that specializes in scenario analysis and forecasting...
as an opportunity. Rather than retreat into localism, it validates global solidarity, cultural cross-fertilization and economic interdependence.
Global citizens movement
The pathways to a Great Transition are uncertain and diverse, but the essay,
Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead, lays out certain clues: governments, limited by nationalist sentiments, are unlikely to lead the way. Transnational corporations are not likely to reinvent themselves. Civil society, although active on the many issues arising during the tumult of transition, is currently too fragmented and small scale to significantly alter the course of global development.
The
Global Scenario GroupThe Global Scenario Group was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin, who used scenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises...
analysis concludes that a Great Transition will not be possible unless larger numbers of an active and aware global citizenry get involved in the struggle for our future. It refers to this as a
global citizens movementIn most discussions, the global citizens movement is a socio-political process rather than a political organization or party structure. The term is often used synonymously with the anti-globalization movement or the global justice movement. Colloquially the term is also used in this imprecise manner...
for a Great Transition. This movement would see itself as constructing a new planetary society rooted in values of quality of life, human solidarity, and environmental sustainability. An authentic
global citizens movementIn most discussions, the global citizens movement is a socio-political process rather than a political organization or party structure. The term is often used synonymously with the anti-globalization movement or the global justice movement. Colloquially the term is also used in this imprecise manner...
would be quite different from the existing fragmented social movements active throughout the world today. These movements tend to be issue-specific – focused on labor, environment, human rights, feminist issues, indigenous struggles, poverty, AIDS, and numerous other interrelated but “siloed” efforts. Without a shared vision for the future, it is difficult to imagine how diverse citizen initiatives could overcome fragmentation and exert influence on the shape of the emerging planetary civilization.
Great Transition Initiative
Further development of the Great Transition scenarios, offering visions and pathways to a hopeful future, is carried on by the
Great Transition Initiative (GTI). The GTI is an international effort to advance a great transition to a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet. The GTI elaborates alternative scenarios and disseminates these visions to the general public.
A key insight of this work is that scientific and technological improvements are not sufficient to create a just and sustainable world. Rather, science and technology must be integrally linked with cultural transformation and new values. In this sense, the emerging science of the
coupled human-environment systemMuch as space and time came to be linked a century ago, so today’s scientists are exploring a variety of ways in which Earth and its humans are linked...
must understand human values as a key feature of the system.
By sharing these visions with citizens, the
Great Transition Initiative attempts to respond to widespread apprehension about the future and inspire action towards a transition. The
GTI Paper Series brings this analysis to issues such as climate change, international security, trade, technology, feminism, global governance, transforming corporations, human well-being, and ecosystems.
External links