Global scenario group
Encyclopedia
The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin
, who used scenario analysis
to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises. Convened by the Tellus Institute
and the Stockholm Environment Institute
in the year 1995, the GSG based its scenarios on quantitative social, economic, and environmental research from world regions with the help of Pole Star, a comprehensive database and computational framework for representing alternative scenarios.
is currently at a turning point, entering a Planetary Phase of Civilization
in which different values regarding the environment, human well-being, and global justice
might lead to different scenarios for future development. Three classes of scenarios are discussed – Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions.
Market Forces: The “invisible hand” of the free market
corrects for inefficiency and thus staves off environmental crisis.
Policy Reform
: Policy changes continually aim for sustainability by enforcing environmental efficiency wherever possible.
Fortress World: In the face of environmental collapse, the international elite retreat to protected enclaves where they manage remaining natural resources and protect their interests. Outside these enclaves, the remainder of civilization endures poverty and degradation.
scenarios envision practical, plausible solutions to the social, economic, and environmental pressures which will inevitably worsen as time passes. The Great Transition future is more than simply market and policy adjustments. It is a future in which fundamental societal values change – materialism and self-interest decline replaced by new notions of “the good life” inclusive of human solidarity and environmental sustainability
. The potential of a Great Transition is linked to the emergence of a global citizens movement
to advocate for new values to underpin global society.
Eco-Communalism
: Localism and civil society
help bring about the environmental transition. The Great Transitions scholars do not view this path as being incredibly plausible.
New Sustainability Paradigm: Population stabilization, lower consumerism, and greener values create a more humane world. Civilization has a smaller ecological footprint
and its members live healthier, more equitable lives.
). According to their website, “The GSG’s research program continues through an expanded effort called the Great Transition Initiative, that takes the GSG’s scenarios as a point of departure in an effort to widely share a vision of hope and generate greater unity among global citizens.” In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) has based environmental assessments on the scenario analysis of the GSG.
Paul Raskin
Paul Raskin is the Founding Director of the Tellus Institute which has conducted over 3,500 research and policy projects throughout the world on environmental issues, resource planning, and sustainable development...
, who used scenario analysis
Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes . Thus, the scenario analysis, which is a main method of projections, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Instead, it presents consciously several alternative future...
to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises. Convened by the Tellus Institute
Tellus Institute
The Tellus Institute is a non-profit research and policy organization based in Boston, Massachusetts, in the United States. Its mission is to advance the transition to a sustainable, equitable, and humane global civilization. The Tellus Institute was founded in 1976 by Paul Raskin, Richard Rosen,...
and the Stockholm Environment Institute
Stockholm Environment Institute
The Stockholm Environment Institute, or SEI, is a non-profit, independent research and policy institute specialising in sustainable development and environmental issues.-Mission:...
in the year 1995, the GSG based its scenarios on quantitative social, economic, and environmental research from world regions with the help of Pole Star, a comprehensive database and computational framework for representing alternative scenarios.
Scenarios
In 2002, the GSG formally presented their scenario approach in an essay called Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. In the essay, the Great Transition scholars indicate that civilizationCivilization
Civilization is a sometimes controversial term that has been used in several related ways. Primarily, the term has been used to refer to the material and instrumental side of human cultures that are complex in terms of technology, science, and division of labor. Such civilizations are generally...
is currently at a turning point, entering a Planetary Phase of Civilization
Planetary Phase of Civilization
The Planetary Phase of Civilization is a concept defined by the Global Scenario Group , an environmental organization that specializes in scenario analysis and forecasting...
in which different values regarding the environment, human well-being, and global justice
Global justice
Global justice is an issue in political philosophy arising from the concern that the world at large is unjust.-Context:The broader philosophical context of the global justice debate, in both its contemporary and historical forms, is the issue of impartiality...
might lead to different scenarios for future development. Three classes of scenarios are discussed – Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions.
Conventional Worlds
The Conventional Worlds scenarios predict a future which unfolds without major surprises and with the continuity of present values. Market forces, new technologies, and policy adjustments allay environmental pressures as they arise.Market Forces: The “invisible hand” of the free market
Free market
A free market is a competitive market where prices are determined by supply and demand. However, the term is also commonly used for markets in which economic intervention and regulation by the state is limited to tax collection, and enforcement of private ownership and contracts...
corrects for inefficiency and thus staves off environmental crisis.
Policy Reform
Policy reform
Policy reform, in addition to its more general meanings, has been used to refer to a future scenario which relies on government action to correct economic market failures and to stimulate the technological investment necessary for sustainable development and the creation of a truly sustainable...
: Policy changes continually aim for sustainability by enforcing environmental efficiency wherever possible.
Barbarization
Breakdown: The world descends into conflict and collapse.Fortress World: In the face of environmental collapse, the international elite retreat to protected enclaves where they manage remaining natural resources and protect their interests. Outside these enclaves, the remainder of civilization endures poverty and degradation.
The Great Transition
The Great TransitionGreat Transition
Great Transition is a vision created by the Global Scenario Group of how humanity could create a civilization that reflects egalitarian social and ecological values, affirms diversity, and defeats poverty, war, and environmental destruction....
scenarios envision practical, plausible solutions to the social, economic, and environmental pressures which will inevitably worsen as time passes. The Great Transition future is more than simply market and policy adjustments. It is a future in which fundamental societal values change – materialism and self-interest decline replaced by new notions of “the good life” inclusive of human solidarity and environmental sustainability
Sustainability
Sustainability is the capacity to endure. For humans, sustainability is the long-term maintenance of well being, which has environmental, economic, and social dimensions, and encompasses the concept of union, an interdependent relationship and mutual responsible position with all living and non...
. The potential of a Great Transition is linked to the emergence of a global citizens movement
Global citizens movement
In most discussions, the global citizens movement is a socio-political process rather than a political organization or party structure. The term is often used synonymously with the anti-globalization movement or the global justice movement. Colloquially the term is also used in this imprecise manner...
to advocate for new values to underpin global society.
Eco-Communalism
Eco-communalism
Eco-communalism is an environmental philosophy based on ideals of simple living, self-sufficiency, sustainability, and local economies. Eco-communalists envision a future in which the economic system of capitalism is replaced with a global web of economically interdependent and interconnected...
: Localism and civil society
Civil society
Civil society is composed of the totality of many voluntary social relationships, civic and social organizations, and institutions that form the basis of a functioning society, as distinct from the force-backed structures of a state , the commercial institutions of the market, and private criminal...
help bring about the environmental transition. The Great Transitions scholars do not view this path as being incredibly plausible.
New Sustainability Paradigm: Population stabilization, lower consumerism, and greener values create a more humane world. Civilization has a smaller ecological footprint
Ecological footprint
The ecological footprint is a measure of human demand on the Earth's ecosystems. It is a standardized measure of demand for natural capital that may be contrasted with the planet's ecological capacity to regenerate. It represents the amount of biologically productive land and sea area necessary to...
and its members live healthier, more equitable lives.
Applicability of scenario analysis
This scenario framework has formed the backbone of numerous global, regional and national scenario assessments and has been adapted for UNEP’s Global Environment Assessment (or Global Environment OutlookGlobal Environment Outlook
The UNEP Global Environment Outlook project was initiated in response to the environmental reporting requirements of Agenda 21 and to a UNEP Governing Council decision of May 1995 which requested the production of a new comprehensive global state of the environment report.The coordinated global...
). According to their website, “The GSG’s research program continues through an expanded effort called the Great Transition Initiative, that takes the GSG’s scenarios as a point of departure in an effort to widely share a vision of hope and generate greater unity among global citizens.” In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific intergovernmental body which provides comprehensive assessments of current scientific, technical and socio-economic information worldwide about the risk of climate change caused by human activity, its potential environmental and...
(IPCC) has based environmental assessments on the scenario analysis of the GSG.
See also
- GlobalizationGlobalizationGlobalization refers to the increasingly global relationships of culture, people and economic activity. Most often, it refers to economics: the global distribution of the production of goods and services, through reduction of barriers to international trade such as tariffs, export fees, and import...
- Global Citizens MovementGlobal citizens movementIn most discussions, the global citizens movement is a socio-political process rather than a political organization or party structure. The term is often used synonymously with the anti-globalization movement or the global justice movement. Colloquially the term is also used in this imprecise manner...
- Great TransitionGreat TransitionGreat Transition is a vision created by the Global Scenario Group of how humanity could create a civilization that reflects egalitarian social and ecological values, affirms diversity, and defeats poverty, war, and environmental destruction....
- Planetary Phase of CivilizationPlanetary Phase of CivilizationThe Planetary Phase of Civilization is a concept defined by the Global Scenario Group , an environmental organization that specializes in scenario analysis and forecasting...
- EcoCommunalism
- Tellus InstituteTellus InstituteThe Tellus Institute is a non-profit research and policy organization based in Boston, Massachusetts, in the United States. Its mission is to advance the transition to a sustainable, equitable, and humane global civilization. The Tellus Institute was founded in 1976 by Paul Raskin, Richard Rosen,...
External links
- Global Scenario Group – An international initiative to examine alternative futures