Failure of imagination
Encyclopedia
Failure of imagination is a general term used to describe circumstances wherein something that was possible to predict or foresee was, in fact, not predicted or foreseen.
The field of Epistemology studies knowledge and human understanding, and failures of understanding. Failure of imagination is related to Unknown unknown
s and Black swan theory
, popularized by Nassim Taleb
in his 2007 book The Black Swan, describing unexpected or unpredicted incidents with significant negative impact.
and the NSA failed to foresee and prevent the September 11 attacks. More generally, the term also refers to the known failures to outsmart terrorists by the Bill Clinton
and George W. Bush administrations and within the various government agencies
such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation
or the CIA.
During the summer of 2003, after the now-declassified
report about the September 11 attack, many government officials, such as Senator
Bob Graham
began to make criticisms that the September 11 attack might have easily been predicted, if not outright prevented in part or altogether. Following these criticisms, President Bush
declassified the August 6, 2001 President's Daily Brief
, Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US, which indicated that hijackings might be one possible mode of attack.
After the attacks, representatives of the Bush administration claimed in early 2004 that "nobody could have imagined that ... hijackers would intentionally crash .... hijackers usually want to live." To the contrary, author Tom Clancy
envisioned just such an event in his 1994 novel Debt of Honor
, where a disgruntled Japan Airlines
pilot flies a Boeing 747
into the United States Capitol
. The apparently intentional crash of EgyptAir Flight 990
by its co-pilot on December 31, 1999, and a similar intentional crash of PSA Flight 1771
by a disgruntled former airline employee on December 7, 1987, and especially the case of AFR 8969
, offered precedents in real life. Prior to the 9/11 attacks, a number of foreign nationals were taking pilot training in the U.S. and raised suspicion by being uninterested in learning how to land safely. The 9/11 Commission
found that this failure to "connect the dots" and imagine what was being planned was an important contributing factor to the September 11 attacks, stating "the most important failure [concerning the 9/11 attacks] was one of imagination."
fire in 1967. The term was attributed to astronaut Frank Borman
, speaking at the Apollo 1 investigation hearings (dramatized in the HBO mini-series From the Earth to the Moon in 1998.)
The term has also been applied to design flaws in the RMS Titanic as well.
The field of Epistemology studies knowledge and human understanding, and failures of understanding. Failure of imagination is related to Unknown unknown
Unknown unknown
"There are known knowns" are the most well-known words of a statement to the press made by the former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in February 2002.- Usage :...
s and Black swan theory
Black swan theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise and has a major impact...
, popularized by Nassim Taleb
Nassim Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese American essayist whose work focuses on problems of randomness and probability. His 2007 book The Black Swan was described in a review by Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II....
in his 2007 book The Black Swan, describing unexpected or unpredicted incidents with significant negative impact.
Intelligence failures of imagination and the 9/11 attacks
The term has been used to describe part of why intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence AgencyCentral Intelligence Agency
The Central Intelligence Agency is a civilian intelligence agency of the United States government. It is an executive agency and reports directly to the Director of National Intelligence, responsible for providing national security intelligence assessment to senior United States policymakers...
and the NSA failed to foresee and prevent the September 11 attacks. More generally, the term also refers to the known failures to outsmart terrorists by the Bill Clinton
Presidency of Bill Clinton
The United States Presidency of Bill Clinton, also known as the Clinton Administration, was the executive branch of the federal government of the United States from January 20, 1993 to January 20, 2001. Clinton was the first Democratic president since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win a second full term...
and George W. Bush administrations and within the various government agencies
Government agency
A government or state agency is a permanent or semi-permanent organization in the machinery of government that is responsible for the oversight and administration of specific functions, such as an intelligence agency. There is a notable variety of agency types...
such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is an agency of the United States Department of Justice that serves as both a federal criminal investigative body and an internal intelligence agency . The FBI has investigative jurisdiction over violations of more than 200 categories of federal crime...
or the CIA.
During the summer of 2003, after the now-declassified
Classified information in the United States
The United States government classification system is currently established under Executive Order 13526, the latest in a long series of executive orders on the topic. Issued by President Barack Obama in 2009, Executive Order 13526 replaced earlier executive orders on the topic and modified the...
report about the September 11 attack, many government officials, such as Senator
United States Senate
The United States Senate is the upper house of the bicameral legislature of the United States, and together with the United States House of Representatives comprises the United States Congress. The composition and powers of the Senate are established in Article One of the U.S. Constitution. Each...
Bob Graham
Bob Graham
Daniel Robert "Bob" Graham is an American politician. He was the 38th Governor of Florida from 1979 to 1987 and a United States Senator from that state from 1987 to 2005...
began to make criticisms that the September 11 attack might have easily been predicted, if not outright prevented in part or altogether. Following these criticisms, President Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
declassified the August 6, 2001 President's Daily Brief
President's Daily Brief
The President's Daily Brief , sometimes incorrectly referred to as the President's Daily Briefing or the President's Daily Bulletin, is a top-secret document produced each morning for the President of the United States...
, Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US, which indicated that hijackings might be one possible mode of attack.
After the attacks, representatives of the Bush administration claimed in early 2004 that "nobody could have imagined that ... hijackers would intentionally crash .... hijackers usually want to live." To the contrary, author Tom Clancy
Tom Clancy
Thomas Leo "Tom" Clancy, Jr. is an American author, best known for his technically detailed espionage, military science, and techno thriller storylines set during and in the aftermath of the Cold War, along with video games on which he did not work, but which bear his name for licensing and...
envisioned just such an event in his 1994 novel Debt of Honor
Debt of Honor
Debt of Honor is a novel by Tom Clancy. It is a continuation of the series featuring his character Jack Ryan. In this installment, Ryan has become the National Security Advisor when the Japanese government goes to war with the United States...
, where a disgruntled Japan Airlines
Japan Airlines
is an airline headquartered in Shinagawa, Tokyo, Japan. It is the flag carrier of Japan and its main hubs are Tokyo's Narita International Airport and Tokyo International Airport , as well as Nagoya's Chūbu Centrair International Airport and Osaka's Kansai International Airport...
pilot flies a Boeing 747
Boeing 747
The Boeing 747 is a wide-body commercial airliner and cargo transport, often referred to by its original nickname, Jumbo Jet, or Queen of the Skies. It is among the world's most recognizable aircraft, and was the first wide-body ever produced...
into the United States Capitol
United States Capitol
The United States Capitol is the meeting place of the United States Congress, the legislature of the federal government of the United States. Located in Washington, D.C., it sits atop Capitol Hill at the eastern end of the National Mall...
. The apparently intentional crash of EgyptAir Flight 990
EgyptAir Flight 990
EgyptAir Flight 990 was a regularly scheduled flight from Los Angeles International Airport, California to Cairo International Airport, Egypt, with a stop at John F. Kennedy International Airport, New York...
by its co-pilot on December 31, 1999, and a similar intentional crash of PSA Flight 1771
PSA Flight 1771
Pacific Southwest Airlines Flight 1771 was a commercial flight that crashed near Cayucos, California, United States, on December 7, 1987, as a result of a murder-suicide scheme by one of the passengers. All 43 people on board the aircraft died...
by a disgruntled former airline employee on December 7, 1987, and especially the case of AFR 8969
Air France Flight 8969
Air France Flight 8969 was an Air France flight that was hijacked on 24 December 1994 by the Armed Islamic Group at Algiers, where they killed three passengers, with the intention to crash it on the Eiffel tower in Paris. When the aircraft reached Marseille, the GIGN, an intervention group of the...
, offered precedents in real life. Prior to the 9/11 attacks, a number of foreign nationals were taking pilot training in the U.S. and raised suspicion by being uninterested in learning how to land safely. The 9/11 Commission
9/11 Commission
The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, also known as the 9/11 Commission, was set up on November 27, 2002, "to prepare a full and complete account of the circumstances surrounding the September 11, 2001 attacks", including preparedness for and the immediate response to...
found that this failure to "connect the dots" and imagine what was being planned was an important contributing factor to the September 11 attacks, stating "the most important failure [concerning the 9/11 attacks] was one of imagination."
Accident related failures of imagination
The phrase failure of imagination has been used to describe the cause of the Apollo 1Apollo 1
Apollo 1 was scheduled to be the first manned mission of the Apollo manned lunar landing program, with a target launch date of February 21, 1967. A cabin fire during a launch pad test on January 27 at Launch Pad 34 at Cape Canaveral killed all three crew members: Command Pilot Virgil "Gus"...
fire in 1967. The term was attributed to astronaut Frank Borman
Frank Borman
Frank Frederick Borman, II is a retired NASA astronaut and engineer, best remembered as the Commander of Apollo 8, the first mission to fly around the Moon, making him, along with fellow crew mates Jim Lovell and Bill Anders, the first of only 24 humans to do so...
, speaking at the Apollo 1 investigation hearings (dramatized in the HBO mini-series From the Earth to the Moon in 1998.)
The term has also been applied to design flaws in the RMS Titanic as well.
See also
- Hindsight biasHindsight biasHindsight bias, or alternatively the knew-it-all-along effect and creeping determinism, is the inclination to see events that have already occurred as being more predictable than they were before they took place. It is a multifaceted phenomenon that can affect different stages of designs,...
- Argument from ignoranceArgument from ignoranceArgument from ignorance, also known as argumentum ad ignorantiam or "appeal to ignorance" , is a fallacy in informal logic. It asserts that a proposition is true because it has not yet been proven false, it is "generally accepted"...
- Epistemology
- Unknown unknownUnknown unknown"There are known knowns" are the most well-known words of a statement to the press made by the former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in February 2002.- Usage :...
- Black swan theoryBlack swan theoryThe black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise and has a major impact...
- Decision theoryDecision theoryDecision theory in economics, psychology, philosophy, mathematics, and statistics is concerned with identifying the values, uncertainties and other issues relevant in a given decision, its rationality, and the resulting optimal decision...