European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Encyclopedia
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 19 European Member States and 15 Co-operating States. At its headquarters in Reading
Reading, Berkshire
Reading is a large town and unitary authority area in England. It is located in the Thames Valley at the confluence of the River Thames and River Kennet, and on both the Great Western Main Line railway and the M4 motorway, some west of London....

, England
England
England is a country that is part of the United Kingdom. It shares land borders with Scotland to the north and Wales to the west; the Irish Sea is to the north west, the Celtic Sea to the south west, with the North Sea to the east and the English Channel to the south separating it from continental...

, one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe is linked by high-speed telecommunication lines to the computer systems of the national weather services of its supporting States. The Centre's computer system contains the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data.

Objectives

ECMWF is renowned worldwide as providing the most accurate medium-range global weather forecasts to 15 days and seasonal forecasts to 12 months. Its products are provided to the European National Weather Services, as a complement to the national short-range and climatological activities. The National Meteorological Services of Member States and Co-operating States use ECMWF’s products for their own national duties, in particular to give early warning of potentially damaging severe weather.

ECMWF was established in 1975, in recognition of the need to pool the scientific and technical resources of Europe’s meteorological services and institutions for the production of medium-range weather forecasts and of the economic and social benefits expected from it. The Centre employs about 160 staff members and 70 consultants coming from Member and Co-operating States.

The primary purposes of the Centre are the development of a capability for medium-range weather forecasting and provision of medium-range weather forecasts to the Member States. The objectives of the Centre shall be to develop, and operate on a regular basis, global models and data-assimilation systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth's fluid envelope and interacting parts of the Earth-system, with a view to preparing forecasts by means of numerical methods, providing initial conditions for the forecasts, and contributing to monitoring the relevant parts of the Earth-system.

The main objectives of the ECMWF are:
  • Development of numerical methods
    Numerical analysis
    Numerical analysis is the study of algorithms that use numerical approximation for the problems of mathematical analysis ....

     for medium-range weather forecasting
    Weather forecasting
    Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the nineteenth century...

  • Preparation of medium-range weather forecasts for distribution to the member states
  • Scientific and technical research directed to the improvement of these forecasts
  • Collection and storage of appropriate meteorological data.

Work and Projects

ECMWF uses the computer modelling technique of numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic...

 (NWP) to forecast the weather from its present measured state. The calculations require a constant input of meteorological data, collected by satellites and earth observation
Earth observation
Earth observation is the gathering of information about planet Earth’s physical, chemical and biological systems. It is used to monitor and assess the status of, and changes in, the natural environment and the built environment. In recent years, Earth observation has become technologically more and...

 systems such as automatic and manned stations, aircraft, ships and weather balloon
Weather balloon
A weather or sounding balloon is a balloon which carries instruments aloft to send back information on atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity and wind speed by means of a small, expendable measuring device called a radiosonde...

s.

The data are fed into ECMWF's databases and assimilated into its NWP models to produce:
  • medium-range forecasts, predicting the weather up to 15 days ahead
  • monthly forecasts, predicting the weather on a weekly basis 30 days ahead
  • seasonal forecasts up to 12 months ahead.


Over the past three decades ECMWF's activities and wide-ranging programme of research and development have played a pioneering role in the remarkable advancement of weather forecasting and data assimilation systems. ECMWF has dramatically improved the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasting, working in collaboration with Member and Co-operating States, the European Union and partners such as the World Meteorological Organization
World Meteorological Organization
The World Meteorological Organization is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 189 Member States and Territories. It originated from the International Meteorological Organization , which was founded in 1873...

 (WMO), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) and the European Space Agency
European Space Agency
The European Space Agency , established in 1975, is an intergovernmental organisation dedicated to the exploration of space, currently with 18 member states...

 (ESA).

ECMWF, through its partnerships with EUMETSAT, ESA, the EU and the European Science community has established a leading position for Europe in the exploitation of satellite data for operational numerical weather prediction, and in the exploitation of satellite data for operational seasonal forecasting with coupled atmosphere-ocean-land models. The increasing amount of satellite data and the development of more sophisticated ways of extraction information from that data have made a major contribution to improving the accuracy and utility of NWP forecasts. ECMWF continuously endeavours to improve the use of satellite observations for NWP.

Reanalysis

ECMWF makes significant contributions to support research on climate variability. ECMWF has pioneered an innovative approach known as reanalysis
Meteorological reanalysis
A meteorological reanalysis is a meteorological data assimilation project which aims to assimilate historical observational data spanning an extended period, using a single consistent assimilation scheme throughout....

, which involves feeding weather observations collected over decades into a NWP system to recreate past atmospheric, sea- and land-surface conditions over specific time periods to obtain a clearer picture of how the climate has changed. Reanalysis provides a most comprehensive and accurate four-dimensional picture of our atmosphere and effectively allows monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change.

To date, and with support from Europe's National Meteorological Services and the European Commission, ECMWF has conducted two major reanalyses of the global atmosphere: the first ECMWF re-analysis
ECMWF re-analysis
The ECMWF re-analysis project is a meteorological reanalysis project.The first reanalysis product, ERA-15, generated re-analyses for approximately 15 years, from December 1978 to February 1994. The second product, ERA-40 begins in 1957 and covers 45 years to 2002...

 (ERA-15) project generated reanalyses from December 1978 to February 1994; the ERA-40
ERA-40
ERA-40 is a ECMWF re-analysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions for 45-years, over the period from September 1957 through August 2002 by ECMWF. Many sources of the meteorological observations were used, including radiosondes, balloons, aircraft, buoyes, satellites, scatterometers....

 project generated reanalyses from September 1957 to August 2002.

Operational forecast model

The ECMWF is best known in the United States for its global operational forecast model, known officially as the "Integrated Forecast System
Integrated Forecast System
The Integrated Forecast System is an operational global meteorological forecasting model. IFS is developed and maintained by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts based in Reading, England...

" but usually known informally as the "ECMWF" or "Euro". The model runs both in a "deterministic forecast" mode and as an ensemble
Ensemble forecasting
Ensemble forecasting is a numerical prediction method that is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system...

. The ECMWF model runs every 12 hours and forecasts out to 10 days. The ECMWF model is primarily used as comparison against the Global Forecast System
Global Forecast System
The Global Forecast System is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by NOAA. This mathematical model is run four times a day and produces forecasts up to 16 days in advance, but with decreasing spatial and temporal resolution over time...

, which is based in the United States and is run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction delivers national and global weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses to its Partners and External User Communities...

. However, unlike the GFS, which is in the public domain
Public domain
Works are in the public domain if the intellectual property rights have expired, if the intellectual property rights are forfeited, or if they are not covered by intellectual property rights at all...

 under provisions of United States law, the ECMWF model is proprietary and copyrighted. Nonetheless, a limited amount of output from the model has been publicly released through both the ECMWF and various sites.

Early warning of severe weather events

ECMWF’s strategy underlines its commitment to maintaining the current rapid rate of improvement of its global medium-range forecasts and products. The ECMWF strategy puts the early warning of severe weather as its principal goal. ECMWF can contribute to the development of strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In particular, ECMWF’s emphasis on the provision of reliable predictions of severe weather can be seen as a key contribution to help society adapt to the dangers and threats associated with global warming. Also scientists and researchers around the world use ECMWF’s forecast products to monitor the environment and analyse climate change.

Forecasts of severe weather events are vital to warn authorities and the public, and to allow appropriate mitigating action to be taken. Early warnings, made a few days ahead of potential events, are of significant benefit, giving additional time to allow contingency plans to be put into place. The increased time gained by issuing accurate warnings of severe weather will be crucial to save lives, for instance by evacuating a large number of people from endangered areas (e.g. storm surge
Storm surge
A storm surge is an offshore rise of water associated with a low pressure weather system, typically tropical cyclones and strong extratropical cyclones. Storm surges are caused primarily by high winds pushing on the ocean's surface. The wind causes the water to pile up higher than the ordinary sea...

s in the North Sea), or taking cautionary actions to avoid major threats to goods and services (e.g. extreme winds).

ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed as a tool to identify where the EPS forecast distribution differs substantially from that of the model climate. It is an integral measure referenced to the model climate that contains all the information regarding variability of weather parameters, in location and time. Thus users can recognize the abnormality of a weather situation without having to define specific space- and time-dependent thresholds.

ECMWF's monthly and seasonal forecasts provide early predictions of events such as heat wave
Heat wave
A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity. There is no universal definition of a heat wave; the term is relative to the usual weather in the area...

s, cold spells and droughts, as well as their impacts on sectors such as agriculture, energy and health. Since ECMWF runs a wave model, there are also predictions of coastal waves and storm surges in European waters which can be used to provide warnings.

Members

The ECMWF is made up of 19 Europe
Europe
Europe is, by convention, one of the world's seven continents. Comprising the westernmost peninsula of Eurasia, Europe is generally 'divided' from Asia to its east by the watershed divides of the Ural and Caucasus Mountains, the Ural River, the Caspian and Black Seas, and the waterways connecting...

an countries: Austria
Austria
Austria , officially the Republic of Austria , is a landlocked country of roughly 8.4 million people in Central Europe. It is bordered by the Czech Republic and Germany to the north, Slovakia and Hungary to the east, Slovenia and Italy to the south, and Switzerland and Liechtenstein to the...

, Belgium
Belgium
Belgium , officially the Kingdom of Belgium, is a federal state in Western Europe. It is a founding member of the European Union and hosts the EU's headquarters, and those of several other major international organisations such as NATO.Belgium is also a member of, or affiliated to, many...

, Denmark
Denmark
Denmark is a Scandinavian country in Northern Europe. The countries of Denmark and Greenland, as well as the Faroe Islands, constitute the Kingdom of Denmark . It is the southernmost of the Nordic countries, southwest of Sweden and south of Norway, and bordered to the south by Germany. Denmark...

, Finland
Finland
Finland , officially the Republic of Finland, is a Nordic country situated in the Fennoscandian region of Northern Europe. It is bordered by Sweden in the west, Norway in the north and Russia in the east, while Estonia lies to its south across the Gulf of Finland.Around 5.4 million people reside...

, France
France
The French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...

, Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...

, Greece
Greece
Greece , officially the Hellenic Republic , and historically Hellas or the Republic of Greece in English, is a country in southeastern Europe....

, Iceland
Iceland
Iceland , described as the Republic of Iceland, is a Nordic and European island country in the North Atlantic Ocean, on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Iceland also refers to the main island of the country, which contains almost all the population and almost all the land area. The country has a population...

, Ireland
Republic of Ireland
Ireland , described as the Republic of Ireland , is a sovereign state in Europe occupying approximately five-sixths of the island of the same name. Its capital is Dublin. Ireland, which had a population of 4.58 million in 2011, is a constitutional republic governed as a parliamentary democracy,...

, Italy
Italy
Italy , officially the Italian Republic languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Italy's official name is as follows:;;;;;;;;), is a unitary parliamentary republic in South-Central Europe. To the north it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and...

, Luxembourg
Luxembourg
Luxembourg , officially the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg , is a landlocked country in western Europe, bordered by Belgium, France, and Germany. It has two principal regions: the Oesling in the North as part of the Ardennes massif, and the Gutland in the south...

, Netherlands
Netherlands
The Netherlands is a constituent country of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, located mainly in North-West Europe and with several islands in the Caribbean. Mainland Netherlands borders the North Sea to the north and west, Belgium to the south, and Germany to the east, and shares maritime borders...

, Norway
Norway
Norway , officially the Kingdom of Norway, is a Nordic unitary constitutional monarchy whose territory comprises the western portion of the Scandinavian Peninsula, Jan Mayen, and the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard and Bouvet Island. Norway has a total area of and a population of about 4.9 million...

, Portugal
Portugal
Portugal , officially the Portuguese Republic is a country situated in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula. Portugal is the westernmost country of Europe, and is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the West and South and by Spain to the North and East. The Atlantic archipelagos of the...

, Spain
Spain
Spain , officially the Kingdom of Spain languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Spain's official name is as follows:;;;;;;), is a country and member state of the European Union located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula...

, Sweden
Sweden
Sweden , officially the Kingdom of Sweden , is a Nordic country on the Scandinavian Peninsula in Northern Europe. Sweden borders with Norway and Finland and is connected to Denmark by a bridge-tunnel across the Öresund....

, Switzerland
Switzerland
Switzerland name of one of the Swiss cantons. ; ; ; or ), in its full name the Swiss Confederation , is a federal republic consisting of 26 cantons, with Bern as the seat of the federal authorities. The country is situated in Western Europe,Or Central Europe depending on the definition....

, Turkey
Turkey
Turkey , known officially as the Republic of Turkey , is a Eurasian country located in Western Asia and in East Thrace in Southeastern Europe...

, United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...



The ECMWF has concluded co-operation agreements with other states: Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Bulgaria , officially the Republic of Bulgaria , is a parliamentary democracy within a unitary constitutional republic in Southeast Europe. The country borders Romania to the north, Serbia and Macedonia to the west, Greece and Turkey to the south, as well as the Black Sea to the east...

, Croatia
Croatia
Croatia , officially the Republic of Croatia , is a unitary democratic parliamentary republic in Europe at the crossroads of the Mitteleuropa, the Balkans, and the Mediterranean. Its capital and largest city is Zagreb. The country is divided into 20 counties and the city of Zagreb. Croatia covers ...

, Czech Republic
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic is a landlocked country in Central Europe. The country is bordered by Poland to the northeast, Slovakia to the east, Austria to the south, and Germany to the west and northwest....

, Estonia
Estonia
Estonia , officially the Republic of Estonia , is a state in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by the Gulf of Finland, to the west by the Baltic Sea, to the south by Latvia , and to the east by Lake Peipsi and the Russian Federation . Across the Baltic Sea lies...

, Hungary
Hungary
Hungary , officially the Republic of Hungary , is a landlocked country in Central Europe. It is situated in the Carpathian Basin and is bordered by Slovakia to the north, Ukraine and Romania to the east, Serbia and Croatia to the south, Slovenia to the southwest and Austria to the west. The...

, Israel
Israel
The State of Israel is a parliamentary republic located in the Middle East, along the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea...

, Latvia
Latvia
Latvia , officially the Republic of Latvia , is a country in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by Estonia , to the south by Lithuania , to the east by the Russian Federation , to the southeast by Belarus and shares maritime borders to the west with Sweden...

, Lithuania
Lithuania
Lithuania , officially the Republic of Lithuania is a country in Northern Europe, the biggest of the three Baltic states. It is situated along the southeastern shore of the Baltic Sea, whereby to the west lie Sweden and Denmark...

, Macedonia
Republic of Macedonia
Macedonia , officially the Republic of Macedonia , is a country located in the central Balkan peninsula in Southeast Europe. It is one of the successor states of the former Yugoslavia, from which it declared independence in 1991...

, Montenegro
Montenegro
Montenegro Montenegrin: Crna Gora Црна Гора , meaning "Black Mountain") is a country located in Southeastern Europe. It has a coast on the Adriatic Sea to the south-west and is bordered by Croatia to the west, Bosnia and Herzegovina to the northwest, Serbia to the northeast and Albania to the...

, Morocco
Morocco
Morocco , officially the Kingdom of Morocco , is a country located in North Africa. It has a population of more than 32 million and an area of 710,850 km², and also primarily administers the disputed region of the Western Sahara...

, Romania
Romania
Romania is a country located at the crossroads of Central and Southeastern Europe, on the Lower Danube, within and outside the Carpathian arch, bordering on the Black Sea...

, Serbia
Serbia
Serbia , officially the Republic of Serbia , is a landlocked country located at the crossroads of Central and Southeast Europe, covering the southern part of the Carpathian basin and the central part of the Balkans...

, Slovakia
Slovakia
The Slovak Republic is a landlocked state in Central Europe. It has a population of over five million and an area of about . Slovakia is bordered by the Czech Republic and Austria to the west, Poland to the north, Ukraine to the east and Hungary to the south...

, and Slovenia
Slovenia
Slovenia , officially the Republic of Slovenia , is a country in Central and Southeastern Europe touching the Alps and bordering the Mediterranean. Slovenia borders Italy to the west, Croatia to the south and east, Hungary to the northeast, and Austria to the north, and also has a small portion of...

.

Site

ECMWF is based at Shinfield Park
Shinfield
Shinfield is a village and civil parish in the English county of Berkshire, just south of Reading. It contains and is administered by the unitary authority of Wokingham District.-Geography:...

, Reading
Reading, Berkshire
Reading is a large town and unitary authority area in England. It is located in the Thames Valley at the confluence of the River Thames and River Kennet, and on both the Great Western Main Line railway and the M4 motorway, some west of London....

, England. It shared grounds with the UK Met. Office College until Summer 2002, before the college was relocated to Exeter
Exeter
Exeter is a historic city in Devon, England. It lies within the ceremonial county of Devon, of which it is the county town as well as the home of Devon County Council. Currently the administrative area has the status of a non-metropolitan district, and is therefore under the administration of the...

 ahead of the move of the Met. Office Headquarters from Bracknell
Bracknell
Bracknell is a town and civil parish in the Borough of Bracknell Forest in Berkshire, England. It lies to the south-east of Reading, southwest of Windsor and west of central London...

 in 2003. The land the Met Office College was on is now used by residential housing.

See also

  • EUMETNET
    EUMETNET
    EUMETNET is a network of 24 European National Meteorological Services based in Brussels, Belgium. It exists to provide a framework to organise co-operative programmes between the members in fields of meteorology, data processing and forecasting products....

  • EUMETSAT
    European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites
    EUMETSAT is an intergovernmental organisation created through an international convention agreed by a current total of 26 European Member States: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Romania, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, the...


External links

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