Ecological forecasting
Encyclopedia
Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology to predict how ecosystem
Ecosystem
An ecosystem is a biological environment consisting of all the organisms living in a particular area, as well as all the nonliving , physical components of the environment with which the organisms interact, such as air, soil, water and sunlight....

s will change in the future in response to environmental factors such as climate change
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...

. The ultimate goal of the approach is to provide people such as resource managers and designers of marine reserve
Marine reserve
For the United States Marine Corps Reserve see: Marine Forces ReserveA marine reserve is an area of the sea which has legal protection against fishing or development. This is to be distinguished from a marine park, but there is some overlap in usage...

s with information that they can then use to respond, in advance, to future changes, a form of adaptation to global warming
Adaptation to global warming
Adaptation to global warming and climate change is a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change effects. Even if emissions are stabilized relatively soon, climate change and its effects will last many years, and adaptation will...

.

One of the most important environmental factors for organisms today is global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...

. Most physiological processes are affected by temperature
Temperature
Temperature is a physical property of matter that quantitatively expresses the common notions of hot and cold. Objects of low temperature are cold, while various degrees of higher temperatures are referred to as warm or hot...

, and so even small changes in weather
Weather
Weather is the state of the atmosphere, to the degree that it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloudy. Most weather phenomena occur in the troposphere, just below the stratosphere. Weather refers, generally, to day-to-day temperature and precipitation activity, whereas climate...

 and climate
Climate
Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, atmospheric particle count and other meteorological elemental measurements in a given region over long periods...

 can lead to large changes in the growth, reproduction and survival of animals and plants. The scientific consensus
Scientific opinion on climate change
The predominant scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth is in an ongoing phase of global warming primarily caused by an enhanced greenhouse effect due to the anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases...


is that the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases due to human activity caused most of the warming observed since the start of the industrial era
Industrial Revolution
The Industrial Revolution was a period from the 18th to the 19th century where major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and technology had a profound effect on the social, economic and cultural conditions of the times...

. These changes are in turn affecting human and natural ecosystems.

One major challenge is to predict where, when and with what magnitude changes are likely to occur so that we can mitigate or at least prepare for them. Ecological forecasting applies existing knowledge of how animals and plants interact with their physical environment to ask how changes in environmental factors might result in changes to the ecosystems as a whole.

Approaches

  • Palaeobiology modeling: uses fossil and phylogenetic evidence of biodiversity in the past to project the trajectory of biodiversity in the future. Simple plots can be constructed and then adjusted based on the varying quality of the fossil record.

  • Climate envelope modeling: relies on statistical correlations between existing species distributions and environmental variables to define a species' tolerance. Envelopes of tolerance are then drawn around existing ranges. By predicting future levels of factors such as temperature
    Temperature
    Temperature is a physical property of matter that quantitatively expresses the common notions of hot and cold. Objects of low temperature are cold, while various degrees of higher temperatures are referred to as warm or hot...

    , rainfall, and salinity
    Salinity
    Salinity is the saltiness or dissolved salt content of a body of water. It is a general term used to describe the levels of different salts such as sodium chloride, magnesium and calcium sulfates, and bicarbonates...

    , new range boundaries are then predicted. These methods are good for examining large numbers of species, but are likely not a good means of predicting effects at fine scales.

  • Niche level modeling: is a newer method which links physiological information about a species to models of animal and plant body temperature. In contrast to “climate envelope” approaches, environmental variables are predicted at the level of the niche and are therefore much more exact. However, the approach is also usually more time consuming.

Biodiversity

Using fossil evidence, studies have shown that vertebrate biodiversity has grown exponentially through Earth's history and that biodiversity is entwined with the diversity of Earth's habitats.

Temperature

Forecasts of temperature, shown in the diagram at the right as colored dots, along the North Island of New Zealand
New Zealand
New Zealand is an island country in the south-western Pacific Ocean comprising two main landmasses and numerous smaller islands. The country is situated some east of Australia across the Tasman Sea, and roughly south of the Pacific island nations of New Caledonia, Fiji, and Tonga...

 in the austral summer of 2007. As per the temperature scale shown at the bottom, intertidal temperatures were forecast to exceed 30°C at some locations on February 19; surveys later showed that these sites corresponded to large die-offs in burrowing sea urchins.

See also

  • Dynamic global vegetation model
    Dynamic global vegetation model
    A dynamic global vegetation model is a computer program that simulates shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles as a response to shifts in climate. DGVMs use time series of climate data and, given constraints of latitude, topography, and soil...

  • Ecosystem model
    Ecosystem model
    An ecosystem model is an abstract, usually mathematical, representation of an ecological system , which is studied to gain a deeper understanding of the real system.Ecosystem models are formed by combining known ecological relations An ecosystem model is an abstract, usually mathematical,...

  • Census of Marine Life
    Census of Marine Life
    The Census of Marine Life was a global network of researchers in more than 80 nations engaged in a 10-year scientific initiative to assess and explain the diversity, distribution, and abundance of life in the oceans...

  • Climate Change
    Climate change
    Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...

  • NaGISA
    NaGISA
    NaGISA is an international collaborative effort aimed at inventorying, cataloguing, and monitoring biodiversity of the in-shore area. So named for the Japanese word "nagisa" , it is an Apronym...

  • GLOBEC
  • Mathematical biology
    Mathematical biology
    Mathematical and theoretical biology is an interdisciplinary scientific research field with a range of applications in biology, medicine and biotechnology...

  • Biostatistics
    Biostatistics
    Biostatistics is the application of statistics to a wide range of topics in biology...


External links

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