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Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman



 
 
Daniel Kahneman ( (born 5 March 1934) is an Israel
Israel

Israel officially the State of Israel , is a country in the Middle East located on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Lebanon in the north, Syria in the northeast, Jordan in the east, and Egypt on the southwest, and contains geographically diverse features within its relatively small area....
i psychologist
Psychology

Psychology is an academic and applied science discipline involving the science study of human mental functions and behavior. Occasionally it also relies on symbolic hermeneutics and critical theory, although these traditions are less pronounced than in other social sciences such as sociology....
 and Nobel laureate, notable for his work on behavioral finance
Behavioral finance

Behavioral economics and behavioral finance are closely related fields that have evolved to be a separate branch of economic and financial analysis which applies scientific research on human and social, cognitive bias and emotional factors to better understand economic decision making by consumers, borrowers, investors, and how they aff...
 and hedonic psychology
Happiness economics

Happiness economics is the study of a country's quality of life by combining economists' and psychologists' techniques. It relies on more expansive notions of utility than does conventional economics....
.

With Amos Tversky
Amos Tversky

Amos Nathan Tversky, was a cognitive psychology and mathematical psychology, and a pioneer of cognitive science, a longtime collaborator of Daniel Kahneman, and a key figure in the discovery of systematic human cognitive bias and handling of risk....
 and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors using heuristic
Heuristic

Heuristic is an adjective for methods that help in problem solving, in turn leading to learning and discovery. These methods in most cases employ experimentation and trial-and-error techniques....
s and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973, Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982), and developed Prospect theory
Prospect theory

Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known....
 (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). He was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics
Nobel Prize in Economics

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially named The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel , is an award for outstanding contributions in the field of economics and is generally considered one of the most prestigious awards in that field....
 for his work in Prospect theory
Prospect theory

Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known....
. Currently, he is professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University
Princeton University

Princeton University is a private university university located in Princeton, New Jersey, New Jersey, United States. The school is one of the eight universities of the Ivy League and has the largest per-student Financial endowment in the world....
's Woodrow Wilson School.

el Kahneman was born in Tel Aviv in 1934, while his mother was visiting relatives.






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Daniel Kahneman ( (born 5 March 1934) is an Israel
Israel

Israel officially the State of Israel , is a country in the Middle East located on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Lebanon in the north, Syria in the northeast, Jordan in the east, and Egypt on the southwest, and contains geographically diverse features within its relatively small area....
i psychologist
Psychology

Psychology is an academic and applied science discipline involving the science study of human mental functions and behavior. Occasionally it also relies on symbolic hermeneutics and critical theory, although these traditions are less pronounced than in other social sciences such as sociology....
 and Nobel laureate, notable for his work on behavioral finance
Behavioral finance

Behavioral economics and behavioral finance are closely related fields that have evolved to be a separate branch of economic and financial analysis which applies scientific research on human and social, cognitive bias and emotional factors to better understand economic decision making by consumers, borrowers, investors, and how they aff...
 and hedonic psychology
Happiness economics

Happiness economics is the study of a country's quality of life by combining economists' and psychologists' techniques. It relies on more expansive notions of utility than does conventional economics....
.

With Amos Tversky
Amos Tversky

Amos Nathan Tversky, was a cognitive psychology and mathematical psychology, and a pioneer of cognitive science, a longtime collaborator of Daniel Kahneman, and a key figure in the discovery of systematic human cognitive bias and handling of risk....
 and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors using heuristic
Heuristic

Heuristic is an adjective for methods that help in problem solving, in turn leading to learning and discovery. These methods in most cases employ experimentation and trial-and-error techniques....
s and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973, Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982), and developed Prospect theory
Prospect theory

Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known....
 (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). He was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics
Nobel Prize in Economics

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially named The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel , is an award for outstanding contributions in the field of economics and is generally considered one of the most prestigious awards in that field....
 for his work in Prospect theory
Prospect theory

Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known....
. Currently, he is professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University
Princeton University

Princeton University is a private university university located in Princeton, New Jersey, New Jersey, United States. The school is one of the eight universities of the Ivy League and has the largest per-student Financial endowment in the world....
's Woodrow Wilson School.

Biography


Early years

Daniel Kahneman was born in Tel Aviv in 1934, while his mother was visiting relatives. He spent his childhood years in Paris, France, where his parents had emigrated from Lithuania
Lithuania

Lithuania , officially the Republic of Lithuania is a country in Northern Europe, the southernmost of the three Baltic states. Situated along the southeastern shore of the Baltic Sea, it shares borders with Latvia to the north, Belarus to the southeast, Poland, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast to the southwest....
 in the early 1920s. Kahneman and his family were in Paris
Paris

Paris is the Capital of France and the country's largest city. It is situated on the river Seine, in northern France, at the heart of the ?le-de-France Regions of France ....
 when it was occupied by Nazi Germany
Nazi Germany

Nazi Germany and the Third Reich are the colloquial English names for Germany under the regime of Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party , which established a Totalitarianism dictatorship that existed from 1933 to 1945....
 in 1940. His father was picked up in the first major round-up of French Jews, but was released after six weeks due to the intervention of his employer. The family was on the run for the remainder of the war, and survived intact except for the death of Kahneman's father of diabetes in 1944. Daniel Kahnemann and his family then moved to Palestine
Palestine

Palestine is a name which has been widely used since Roman times to refer to the region between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. It is derived from a name used already much earlier for a narrower geographical region, mainly along the coastal region....
 (which was soon to become Israel
Israel

Israel officially the State of Israel , is a country in the Middle East located on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Lebanon in the north, Syria in the northeast, Jordan in the east, and Egypt on the southwest, and contains geographically diverse features within its relatively small area....
) in 1946 (Kahneman, 2003).

Kahneman has written of his experience in Nazi-occupied France, explaining in part why he entered the field of psychology:

It must have been late 1941 or early 1942. Jews were required to wear the Star of David
Yellow badge

The yellow badge , also referred to as a Jewish badge, was a cloth patch that Jews were ordered to sew on their outer garments in order to mark them as Jews in public....
 and to obey a 6 p.m. curfew
Curfew

A cogida, or curfew laws can be one of the following# An order by a government for certain persons to return home daily before a certain time....
. I had gone to play with a Christian friend and had stayed too late. I turned my brown sweater inside out to walk the few blocks home. As I was walking down an empty street, I saw a German soldier approaching. He was wearing the black uniform that I had been told to fear more than others – the one worn by specially recruited SS soldiers. As I came closer to him, trying to walk fast, I noticed that he was looking at me intently. Then he beckoned me over, picked me up, and hugged me. I was terrified that he would notice the star inside my sweater. He was speaking to me with great emotion, in German. When he put me down, he opened his wallet, showed me a picture of a boy, and gave me some money. I went home more certain than ever that my mother was right: people were endlessly complicated and interesting (Kahneman, 2003, p. 417).


Education and military service
Kahneman received his B. Sc. with a major in psychology
Psychology

Psychology is an academic and applied science discipline involving the science study of human mental functions and behavior. Occasionally it also relies on symbolic hermeneutics and critical theory, although these traditions are less pronounced than in other social sciences such as sociology....
 and a minor in mathematics
Mathematics

Mathematics is the study of quantity, structure, space, change, and related topics of pattern and form. Mathematicians seek out patterns whether found in numbers, space, natural science, computers, imaginary abstractions, or elsewhere....
 from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem
Jerusalem

Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and its List of Israeli cities in both population and area, with a population of 747,600 residents over an area of if Positions on Jerusalem East Jerusalem is included....
 in 1954. After earning his undergraduate degree, he served in the psychology department of the Israeli Defense Forces. One of his responsibilities was to evaluate candidates for officer's training school, and to develop tests and measures for this purpose. In 1958, he went to the United States
United States

The United States of America is a Federal government constitutional republic comprising U.S. state and a federal district. The country is situated mostly in central North America, where its Contiguous United States and Washington, D.C., the Capital districts and territories, lie between the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Oceans, Borders of the U...
 to study for his Ph.D. degree
PHD

PHD may refer to:* Parisada Hindu Dharma, an Indonesian reform organization* PHD, a track on The Crystal Method album Tweekend* PHD finger, a protein sequence...
 in Psychology from the University of California at Berkeley in 1961.

Career


Cognitive psychology
Kahneman began his academic career as a lecturer in psychology at Hebrew University in 1961. He was promoted to senior lecturer in 1966. His early work focused on visual perception and attention. For example, his first publication in the prestigious journal Science was entitled "Pupil Diameter and Load on Memory" (Kahneman & Beatty, 1966). During this period, Kahneman was a visiting scientist at the University of Michigan (1965–1966) and the Applied Psychological Research Unit in Cambridge (1968/1969, summers). He was a fellow at the Center for Cognitive Studies and a lecturer in psychology at Harvard University
Harvard University

Harvard University is a private university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Massachusetts, United States, and a member of the Ivy League. Founded in 1636 by the colonial Massachusetts legislature, Harvard is the Colonial Colleges institution of higher learning in the United States....
 in 1966/1967.

Judgment and decision-making
This period marks the beginning of Kahneman's lengthy collaboration with Amos Tversky
Amos Tversky

Amos Nathan Tversky, was a cognitive psychology and mathematical psychology, and a pioneer of cognitive science, a longtime collaborator of Daniel Kahneman, and a key figure in the discovery of systematic human cognitive bias and handling of risk....
. Together, Kahneman and Tversky published a series of seminal articles in the general field of judgment and decision-making, culminating in the publication of their seminal prospect theory
Prospect theory

Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known....
 in 1979 (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics
Nobel Prize in Economics

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially named The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel , is an award for outstanding contributions in the field of economics and is generally considered one of the most prestigious awards in that field....
 in 2002 for his work on prospect theory, and it is generally regarded as a given that Tversky would also have received the prize had he still been alive (he died in 1996).

In his Nobel biography, Kahneman states that his collaboration with Tversky began after Kahneman had invited Tversky to give a guest lecture to one of Kahneman's seminars at Hebrew University, sometime during the years 1968-1969. Their first jointly-authored paper, "Belief in the Law of Small Numbers," was published in 1971 (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). They published seven articles in peer-review journals in the years 1971–1979. Aside from "Prospect Theory," the most important of these articles was "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases" (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), which was published in the prestigious journal Science
Science (journal)

Science is the academic journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and is considered one of the world's most prestigious scientific journals....
.

Kahneman left Hebrew University in 1978 to take a position at the University of British Columbia
University of British Columbia

The University of British Columbia is a Canada Public university research university with campuses in Vancouver and in Kelowna, British Columbia....
. This move had no immediate effect on his collaborations with Tversky, for Tversky moved to Stanford University
Stanford University

Leland Stanford Junior University, commonly referred to as Stanford University or Stanford, is a private university research university located in Stanford, California, California, United States....
 that same year.

Behavioral economics
Kahneman and Tversky were both fellows at the Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University
Stanford University

Leland Stanford Junior University, commonly referred to as Stanford University or Stanford, is a private university research university located in Stanford, California, California, United States....
 in the academic year 1977-1978. A young economist named Richard Thaler
Richard Thaler

Richard H. Thaler is an USA economics perhaps best known as a theorist in behavioral finance and for his collaboration with Daniel Kahneman and others in further defining that field....
 was a visiting professor at the Stanford branch of the National Bureau of Economic Research during that same year. According to Kahneman, "[Thaler and I] soon became friends, and have ever since had a considerable influence on each other's thinking" (Kahneman, 2003, p. 437). Building on Prospect theory
Prospect theory

Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known....
 and Kahneman and Tversky's body of work, Thaler published "Toward a Positive Theory of Human Choice" in 1980, a paper which Kahneman has called "the founding text in behavioral economics" (Kahneman, 2003, p. 438).

Kahneman and Tversky both became heavily involved in the development of this new approach to economic theory, and their involvement in this movement had the effect of reducing the intensity and exclusivity of their earlier period of joint collaboration. Although they would continue to publish together until the end of Tversky's life, their years of near-exclusive collaboration were coming to an end.

The period when Kahneman published almost exclusively with Tversky began to wind down in 1983, when Kahneman published two papers with Anne Treisman
Anne Treisman

Anne Marie Treisman Royal Society is a psychologist, working currently at Princeton University's Princeton University Department of Psychology....
, his wife since 1978.

Hedonic psychology
In the nineties, Kahneman's research focus began to gradually shift in emphasis towards the field of "hedonic psychology." This subfield is closely related to the positive psychology
Positive psychology

Positive psychology is a recent branch of psychology that "studies the strengths and virtues that enable individuals and communities to thrive"....
 movement, which was steadily gaining in popularity at the time. According to Kahneman and colleagues,
"Hedonic psychology...is the study of what makes experiences and life pleasant or unpleasant. It is concerned with feelings of pleasure and pain, of interest and boredom, of joy and sorrow, and of satisfaction and dissatisfaction. It is also concerned with the whole range of circumstances, from the biological to the societal, that occasion suffering and enjoyment." (Kahneman, Diener & Schwarz, 1999, p. ix)
It is difficult to determine precisely when Kahneman's research began to focus on hedonics, although it likely stemmed from his work on the economic notion of utility
Utility

In economics, utility is a measure of the relative satisfaction from, or desirability of, consumption of various goods and services. Given this measure, one may speak meaningfully of increasing or decreasing utility, and thereby explain economic behavior in terms of attempts to increase one's utility....
. After publishing multiple articles and chapters in all but one of the years spanning the period 1979-1986 (for a total of 23 published works in 8 years), Kahneman published exactly one chapter during the years 1987-1989. After this hiatus, articles on utility
Utility

In economics, utility is a measure of the relative satisfaction from, or desirability of, consumption of various goods and services. Given this measure, one may speak meaningfully of increasing or decreasing utility, and thereby explain economic behavior in terms of attempts to increase one's utility....
 and the psychology of utility
Utility

In economics, utility is a measure of the relative satisfaction from, or desirability of, consumption of various goods and services. Given this measure, one may speak meaningfully of increasing or decreasing utility, and thereby explain economic behavior in terms of attempts to increase one's utility....
 began to appear (e.g. Kahneman & Snell, 1990; Kahneman & Thaler, 1991; Kahneman & Varey, 1991). In 1992, Varey and Kahneman introduced the method of evaluating moments and episodes as a way to capture "experiences extended across time." While Kahneman continued to study decision-making (e.g. Kahneman, 1992, 1994; Kahneman & Lovallo, 1993), hedonic psychology was the focus of an increasing number of publications (e.g. Fredrickson & Kahneman, 1993; Kahneman, Fredrickson, Schreiber & Redelemeier, 1993; Kahneman, Wakker & Sarin, 1997; Redelmeier & Kahneman, 1996), culminating in a volume co-edited with Ed Diener
Ed Diener

Ed Diener is Joseph R. Smiley Distinguished Professor of Psychology at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He has over 240 publications, and with over 12,000 citations is one of the most highly cited psychologists according to the Institute for Scientific Information....
 and Norbert Schwarz
Norbert Schwarz

Norbert Schwarz is the Charles Horton Cooley Collegiate Professor of social psychology and acting chair of the Social Psychology program at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor....
, two of the most established and esteemed scholars of affect and well-being (Kahneman, Diener & Schwarz, 1999).

Personal life

Kahneman is currently a senior scholar and faculty member emeritus at Princeton University
Princeton University

Princeton University is a private university university located in Princeton, New Jersey, New Jersey, United States. The school is one of the eight universities of the Ivy League and has the largest per-student Financial endowment in the world....
's Department of Psychology
Princeton University Department of Psychology

The Princeton University Department of Psychology, located in Green Hall, is an academic department of Princeton University on the corner of Washington St....
 and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs

The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs is a professional public policy school at Princeton University. The school has granted undergraduate A.B....
. He is also a fellow at Hebrew University and a Gallup
The Gallup Organization

The Gallup Organization provides a variety of management consulting, human resources and statistical research services. It has over 40 offices in 27 countries....
 Senior Scientist.

Daniel Kahneman is married to the psychologist, Anne Treisman
Anne Treisman

Anne Marie Treisman Royal Society is a psychologist, working currently at Princeton University's Princeton University Department of Psychology....
.

Honors and awards

In 2002, Kahneman received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics (officially titled The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel), despite being a research psychologist
Psychologist

"Psychologist" is an academic, occupational or professional title describing individuals who are either: * social scientists conducting research and/or teaching psychology in a college or university;...
, for his work in Prospect theory
Prospect theory

Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known....
. In fact, Kahneman claims to have never taken a single economics course he claims that what he knows of the subject he and Tversky learned from collaborators Richard Thaler
Richard Thaler

Richard H. Thaler is an USA economics perhaps best known as a theorist in behavioral finance and for his collaboration with Daniel Kahneman and others in further defining that field....
 and Jack Knetsch.

In 2007, Kahneman was presented with the American Psychological Association's Award for Outstanding Lifetime Contributions to Psychology.

Notable contributions

  • Anchoring and adjustment
  • Availability heuristic
    Availability heuristic

    The availability heuristic is a phenomenon in which people base their prediction of the frequency of an event or the proportion within a population based on how easily an example can be brought to mind....
  • Base rate fallacy
    Base rate fallacy

    The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking sufficient account of the "base rate" or "prior probability" of H....
  • Conjunction fallacy
    Conjunction fallacy

    The conjunction fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one....
  • Framing (economics)
    Framing (economics)

    In economics, framing means the manner in which a rational choice problem has been presented.Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman have shown that framing can affect the outcome of choice problems, to the extent that several of the classic axioms of rational choice do not hold....
  • Loss aversion
    Loss aversion

    In prospect theory, loss aversion refers to people's tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains....
  • Peak-end rule
    Peak-end rule

    According to the peak-end rule, we judge our past experiences almost entirely on how they were at their peak and how they ended. Other information is not lost, but it is not used....
  • Preference reversal
  • Prospect theory
    Prospect theory

    Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known....
  • Cumulative prospect theory
    Cumulative prospect theory

    Cumulative Prospect Theory is a model for descriptive decisions under risk which has been introduced by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1992 ....
  • Reference class forecasting
    Reference class forecasting

    Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast....
  • Representativeness heuristic
    Representativeness heuristic

    The representativeness heuristic is a heuristic wherein people assume commonality between object s of similar appearance, or between an object and a group it appears to fit into....
  • Simulation heuristic
    Simulation heuristic

    The simulation heuristic is a psychological heuristic, or simplified mental strategy, first theorized by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky as a specialized adaptation of the availability heuristic to explain counterfactual thinking and regret....
  • Status quo bias
    Status quo bias

    The status quo bias is a cognitive bias for the status quo; in other words, people tend not to change an established behavior unless the incentive to change is compelling....


Publications

  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105-110.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454.
  • Kahneman, D. (1973). Attention and effort. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207-232.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica, 47, 313-327.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453-458.
  • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values and frames. American Psychologist, 39, 341-350.
  • Kahneman, D., & Miller, D.T. (1986). Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. Psychological Review, 93, 136-153.
  • Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J.L., & Thaler, R.H. (1990). Experimental tests of the endowment effect and the Coase theorem. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 1325-1348.
  • Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk-taking. Management Science, 39, 17-31.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103, 582-591.
  • Kahneman, D., Diener, E., & Schwarz, N. (Eds.). (1999). Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (2000). Choices, values and frames. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kahneman, D. (2003). A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. American Psychologist, 58, 697-720.


Bibliography

  • Kahneman, D. (2003). Maps of bounded rationality: A perspective on intuitive judgment and choice. In T. Frangsmyr (Ed.), Les Prix Nobel 2002 [Nobel Prizes 2002]. Stockholm, Sweden: Almquist & Wiksell International. Note that this chapter has two sections: the first is an autobiography (with a eulogy for Amos Tversky), and the second is a transcript of his Nobel lecture, which is what the title refers to. The autobiographical portion has been republished as: Kahneman, D. (2007). Daniel Kahneman. In G. Lindzey & W.M. Runyan (Eds.), A History of Psychology in Autobiography, Volume IX (pp.155-197). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association. It is also available on the .
  • Kahneman, D., & Beatty, J. (1966). Pupil diameter and load on memory. Science, 154, 1583-1585.
  • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica, 47, 313-327.
  • Professor Paul Bloom, Yale University 2008,


See also

  • Optimism bias
    Optimism bias

    Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events....
  • Planning fallacy
    Planning fallacy

    The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. Real-life examples in public policy may include the construction of the Sydney Opera House and the Big Dig , both of which ran many years past their planned schedule....
  • Reference class forecasting
    Reference class forecasting

    Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast....


External links