Colin J. Campbell,
Ph.D.Doctor of Philosophy, abbreviated PhD , for the Latin , meaning "teacher of philosophy", or alternatively, DPhil, for the equivalent , is an advanced academic degree awarded by universities...
OxfordThe University of Oxford , located in the UK city of Oxford, is the oldest surviving university in the English-speaking world and is regarded as one of the world's leading academic institutions. Although the exact date of foundation remains unclear, there is evidence of teaching there as far back...
, (born in
BerlinBerlin is the capital city and one of sixteen states of Germany. With a population of 3.4 million within its city limits, Berlin is Germany's largest city. It is the second most populous city and the eighth most populous urban area in the European Union...
, Germany in 1931) is a retired British petroleum geologist who predicted that oil production would
peakPeak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells...
by 2007 . The consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependence on
fossil fuelFossil fuels or mineral fuels are fuels formed by natural resources such as anaerobic decomposition of buried dead organisms. The age of the organisms and their resulting fossil fuels is typically millions of years, and sometimes exceeds 650 million years...
s for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention, but are disputed by some in the oil industry and have not significantly changed U.S. governmental energy policies at this time. In order to deal with declining global oil production, he has proposed the
Rimini protocolThe Rimini Protocol is a proposal made by the geologist Colin Campbell in 2003. It is intended to stabilise oil prices and minimize the effects of peak oil....
.
Influential papers by Campbell include
The Coming Oil Crisis, which he wrote with
Jean LaherrèreJean H. Laherrère is a petroleum engineer and consultant, best known as the co-author of an influential 1998 Scientific American article entitled "The End of Cheap Oil". Laherrère worked for 37 years with Total S.A., a French petroleum company. His work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to...
in 1998, and is credited with convincing the
International Energy AgencyThe International Energy Agency is a Paris-based intergovernmental organization established under the umbrella of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis...
of the coming peak; and
The End of Cheap Oil, which was published the same year in
Scientific AmericanScientific American is a popular science magazine published since August 28, 1845, which according to the magazine makes it the oldest continuously published magazine in the United States...
. He was referred to as a "doomsayer" in the
The Wall Street JournalThe Wall Street Journal is an English-language international daily newspaper published by Dow Jones & Company, a division of News Corporation, in New York City, with Asian and European editions. As of 2007, it has a worldwide daily circulation of more than 2 million, with approximately 931,000...
in 2004 .
The
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and GasThe Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, or ASPO, is a network of scientists, affiliated with a wide array of global institutions and universities, having an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource...
founded by Campbell has been gaining recognition in the recent years. They have organized yearly international conferences since 2002. The next is scheduled in Denver, Colorado on 11-13 October 2009. The previous one was in Sacramento, California on 21-23 September 2008.
Background
The most famous
peak oilPeak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells...
petrogeologist is
M. King HubbertMarion King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory , with important political ramifications. He was often...
, who predicted in 1956 that oil production would peak in the United States between 1965 and 1970. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970. Hubbert's theories became popular during the 1973 energy crisis, and during the
1979 energy crisisThe 1979 oil crisis in the United States occurred in the wake of the Iranian Revolution. Amid massive protests, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled his country in early 1979, allowing the Ayatollah Khomeini to gain control. The protests shattered the Iranian oil sector...
when even the
United States Secretary of EnergyThe United States Secretary of Energy is the head of the United States Department of Energy, a member of the President's Cabinet, and fifteenth in the Presidential line of succession. The post was created with the formation of the Department of Energy on October 1, 1977, by President Jimmy Carter's...
, James Schlesinger announced, as he left his post that year, that 'Mid-East production is unlikely to expand much, if at all, and is unlikely to drop below current levels'. (Wall Street Journal 1979). In December 2000 Colin Campbell warned in a public lecture held at the
Clausthal University of TechnologyClausthal University of Technology is a university in Clausthal-Zellerfeld, Germany. It has about 90 professors, 420 scientific employees, and in winter 2008 approximately 3,200 students.- Organization :...
that
'There is, I think, a strong danger of some ill-considered military intervention to try to secure oil. A stock market crash seems inevitable, as some investment managers are now telling us..The global market may collapse because of high transport costs and global recession. Self-sufficiency will become a priority.'
Current debate
Global oil discovery peaked in 1964 , and since the early 1980s oil production has outpaced new discoveries. The world currently consumes oil at the rate of 84 million barrel per day (31 billion barrels/year, or 151 m³/s), and consumption is rising, particularly in
ChinaChina is a cultural region, an ancient civilization, and, depending on perspective, a national or multinational entity extending over a large area in East Asia....
.
According to Campbell:
- There are no new potential oil field
An oil field is a region with an abundance of oil wells extracting petroleum from below ground. Because the oil reservoirs typically extend over a large area, possibly several hundred kilometres across, full exploitation entails multiple wells scattered across the area...
s sufficiently large to reduce this future energy crisisAn energy crisis is any great bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In popular litterature though, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place.- Causes :...
.
- The reported oil reserves
Oil reserves are the estimated quantities of crude oil that are claimed to be recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions.The total estimated amount of oil in an oil reservoir, including both producible and non-producible oil, is called oil in place...
of many OPECThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is a cartel of twelve countries made up of Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. OPEC has maintained its headquarters in Vienna since 1965, and hosts regular...
countries are inflated, to increase their quotas, or improve their chance of getting a loan from the World BankThe World Bank is an international financial institution that provides leveraged loans to poorer countries for capital programs, tied to neoliberal market restructurings...
.
- The practice of gradually adding new discoveries to a country's list of proven reserves, instead of all at once, artificially inflates the current rate of discovery.
In 1989 Campbell claimed that there would be a shortage towards the late 1990's. In 1990 he claimed that 1998 would represent a 'depletion midpoint' These early assessments were, however, according to Campbell himself, 'based on public domain data, before the degree of misreporting by industry and governments was appreciated.' Since that time Campbell has been predicting that the peak of oil production will cause a catastrophic worldwide economic depression.
One theory, held by many in the oil industry and the
United States Department of EnergyThe United States Department of Energy is a Cabinet-level department of the United States government concerned with the United States' policies regarding energy and safety in handling nuclear material...
, is that oil production will continue to increase, due to
technologicalTechnology is a broad concept that deals with human as well as other animal species' usage and knowledge of tools and crafts, and how it affects a species' ability to control and adapt to its environment...
advances and the
geopoliticalGeopolitics is the art and practice of using political power over a given territory. Traditionally, the term has applied primarily to the impact of geography on politics, but its usage has evolved over the past century to encompass a wider connotation....
pressure caused by rising oil prices. They argue that:
- Much of the world's oil reserves come from areas that have not been fully explored because they are politically unstable, like Russia and Iraq
Iraq , officially the Republic of Iraq , also known as Mesopotamia, is a country in Western Asia spanning most of the northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian Desert.Iraq shares borders with Jordan to the west, Syria...
. Nobody knows how much oil is really left in those areas, and economic pressure could result in a new exploration boom.
- New methods of extracting oil from existing fields are currently being developed. This may even expand the definition of "oil": Hydrocarbon
In organic chemistry, a hydrocarbon is an organic compound consisting entirely of hydrogen and carbon. With relation to chemical terminology, aromatic hydrocarbons or arenes, alkanes, alkenes and alkyne-based compounds composed entirely of carbon and hydrogen are referred to as "pure"...
s exist in shale and tarry sands, and as a result companies like ExxonExxon is a brand of motor fuel and related products sold by ExxonMobil. From 1972 to 1999, Exxon was the corporate name of the company previously known as Standard Oil Company of New Jersey or Jersey Standard.- History :...
predict that there are up to 14 trillion barrels (2,200 km³) of exploitable hydrocarbons left in the world, which could fuel the oil industry for another century.
The U.S. Department Of Energy report
Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk ManagementSee also Robert L. Hirsch
The Hirsch report, the commonly referred to name for the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005.It examined the time frame for the...
, often referred to as the
Hirsch Report, proposes an urgent mitigation approach to deal with the possibility of oil production going into decline in the immediate future.
It states: "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
The current debate in the U.S. revolves around energy policy, and whether to shift funding to increasing
conservationEnergy conservation is the practice of decreasing the quantity of energy used. It may be achieved through efficient energy use, in which case energy use is decreased while achieving a similar outcome, or by reduced consumption of energy services...
measures,
fuel efficiencyFuel efficiency, is a form of thermal efficiency, meaning the efficiency of a process that converts chemical potential energy contained in a carrier fuel into kinetic energy or work. Overall fuel efficiency may vary per device, which in turn may vary per application, and this spectrum of variance...
, and other energy sources such as
wind powerWind power is the conversion of wind energy into a useful form of energy, such as electricity, using wind turbines. At the end of 2008, worldwide nameplate capacity of wind-powered generators was 121.2 gigawatts . In 2008, wind power produced about 1.5% of worldwide electricity usage; and is...
,
solar powerSolar energy, radiant light and heat from the Sun, has been harnessed by humans since ancient times using a range of ever-evolving technologies. Solar radiation, along with secondary solar-powered resources such as wind and wave power, hydroelectricity and biomass, account for most of the available...
,
hydropowerHydropower, hydraulic power or water power is power that is derived from the force or energy of moving water, which may be harnessed for useful purposes....
, and
nuclear powerNuclear power is power produced from controlled nuclear reactions. Commercial plants in use to date use nuclear fission reactions....
. Economist Michael Lynch claims Campbell's research data is sloppy. He points to the date of the coming peak, which was initially projected to occur by 1995, but has now been pushed back to 2007. However, Campbell and his supporters insist that
when the peak occurs is not as important as the realization that the peak is coming.
Personal background
Campbell has over 40 years of experience in the oil industry. He was educated at St Paul's School (the public school in London) and
Wadham College, OxfordWadham College is one of the constituent colleges of the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, located at the southern end of Parks Road in central Oxford. It was founded by Nicholas and Dorothy Wadham, wealthy Somerset landowners, during the reign of King James I...
(
BABachelor of Arts , from the Latin artium baccalaureus, is a bachelor's degree awarded for an undergraduate course or program in either the liberal arts, the sciences or both....
Geology 1954, MA and
DPhilDoctor of Philosophy, abbreviated PhD , for the Latin , meaning "teacher of philosophy", or alternatively, DPhil, for the equivalent , is an advanced academic degree awarded by universities...
1957), and has worked as a
petroleumPetroleum or crude oil is a naturally occurring, flammable liquid found in rock formations in the Earth consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights, plus other organic compounds.The term "petroleum" was first used in the treatise De Natura Fossilium, published in...
geologistFor other uses, see Geologist .A geologist is a scientist who studies the solid and liquid matter that constitutes the Earth and terrestrial planets...
in the field, as a manager, and as a consultant. He has been employed by Oxford University,
TexacoTexaco is the name of an American oil retail brand. Its flagship product is its fuel,"Texaco with Techron". It also owns the Havoline motor oil brand....
,
British PetroleumBP plc is the third largest global energy company, the 5th largest company in the world, the UK's largest company, a multinational oil company with headquarters in St James's, City of Westminster, London...
,
AmocoAmoco Corporation, originally Standard Oil Company , was a global chemical and oil company, founded in 1889 around a refinery located in Whiting, Indiana. It later absorbed the American Oil Company founded in Baltimore in 1910 and incorporated in 1922 by Louis Blaustein and his son Jacob. Amoco is...
, Shenandoah Oil,
Norsk HydroNorsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company, headquartered in Oslo. Hydro is the fourth largest integrated aluminium company worldwide. It has operations in some 40 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 43.8 percent...
, and
FinaFina may refer to:*FinA, a software system for financial analysis*Fina, a character in the Skies of Arcadia video game*FINA, the Croatian Financial Agency *FINA, the International Swimming Federation...
, and has worked with the
BulgariaBulgaria , officially the Republic of Bulgaria , is a country in the Balkans in south-eastern Europe. Bulgaria borders five other countries: Romania to the north , Serbia and the Republic of Macedonia to the west, and Greece and Turkey to the south...
n and
SwedishSweden , officially the Kingdom of Sweden , is a Nordic country on the Scandinavian Peninsula in Northern Europe...
governments. His writing credits include two books and more than 150 papers.
More recently, he founded the
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and GasThe Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, or ASPO, is a network of scientists, affiliated with a wide array of global institutions and universities, having an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource...
, is affiliated with Petroconsultants in
GenevaGeneva, is the second-most-populous city in Switzerland and is the most populous city of Romandie...
, is a trustee of the
Oil Depletion Analysis CenterODAC may refer to:*Outdoor Adventure Club, a Co-curricular activity in some junior colleges and universities in Singapore*Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, an independent UK-registered educational charity*Oncology Drug Advisory Committee...
in
London[]London is the capital of England and the United Kingdom. It has been a major settlement for two millennia, and the history of London goes back to its founding by the Romans, when it was named Londinium. London's core, the ancient City of London, the 'square mile', retains its medieval boundaries...
. He conducts research on the oil peak, and he also tries to build public awareness of the issue, which includes lecturing extensively. He addressed a committee of the
British House of CommonsThe House of Commons is the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, which also comprises the Sovereign and the House of Lords . Both Commons and Lords meet in the Palace of Westminster. The Commons is a democratically elected body, consisting of 646 members, who are known as "Members...
, and officials from investment and automotive companies. He has appeared in the
documentary filmDocumentary film is a broad category of visual expressions that is based on the attempt, in one fashion or another, to "document" reality. Although "documentary film" originally referred to movies shot on film stock, it has subsequently expanded to include video and digital productions that can...
s
The End of SuburbiaThe End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream is a 2004 documentary film concerning peak oil and its implications for the suburban lifestyle, written and directed by Toronto-based filmmaker Gregory Greene....
,
Crude Awakening: The Oil CrashA Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash is an award-winning documentary film about peak oil, produced and directed by Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack.-Overview:...
, and
PEAK OIL – Imposed by Nature.
Quotes
But it isn't this peak hasn't no real great significance, it is the perception and the vision of the long decline that comes into sight on the other side of the peak. That's really what matters. (speaking on peak oil phenomenon- End of Oil (2005))
See also
- Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Kenneth S. Deffeyes is a geologist who worked with M. King Hubbert of Hubbert's peak fame, at the Shell Oil Company research laboratory in Houston, Texas. Deffeyes holds a B.S. in petroleum geology from the Colorado School of Mines and a Ph.D. in geology from Princeton University under F.B. van...
- Jean Laherrère
Jean H. Laherrère is a petroleum engineer and consultant, best known as the co-author of an influential 1998 Scientific American article entitled "The End of Cheap Oil". Laherrère worked for 37 years with Total S.A., a French petroleum company. His work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to...
- Thomas Malthus
Dr. Thomas Robert Malthus FRS ,was a Jewish scholar, influential in political economy and demography. Malthus popularised the economic theory of rent....
, and the Malthusian catastropheA Malthusian catastrophe was originally foreseen to be a forced return to subsistence-level conditions once population growth had outpaced agricultural production. Later formulations consider economic growth limits as well...
.
- Dale Allen Pfeiffer
Dale Allen Pfeiffer is a geologist from Michigan, U.S. who has recently been investigating and writing about Hubbert Peak theory and the specter of resource wars....
Further reading
- Dire prophecy: as prices soar, doomsayers provoke debate on oil's future, by Jeffrey Ball from The Wall Street Journal, volume 244, number 57, September 21, 2004.
- The end of cheap oil, by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère
Jean H. Laherrère is a petroleum engineer and consultant, best known as the co-author of an influential 1998 Scientific American article entitled "The End of Cheap Oil". Laherrère worked for 37 years with Total S.A., a French petroleum company. His work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to...
. Scientific American, March 1998.
- The Coming Oil Crisis, by Colin J. Campbell. Independent Publishers Group, April 1, 2004. ISBN 0-906522-11-0.
- The Truth about Oil and the Looming Energy Crisis, by Colin J. Campbell. (booklet; no ISBN)
External links
- Oil - A Turning Point for Mankind (video lecture) by Dr. Colin J. Campbell, at the Clausthal University of Technology, Dec. 2000.
- The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) - official website
- ASPO Ireland (Colin Campbell's Office)
- Colin J. Campbell from the Coming Global Oil Crisis. 2004.
- Colin Campbell interviewed, by Julian Darley. Global Public Media, December 18, 2002.
- ASPO newsletter, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- ASPO depletion profiles by country, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- Depletion model, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- ASPO Lisbon Conference 2005
- Speech by Dr. Colin J. Campbell at 'Fuelling the Future' conference, in Kinsale, Ireland, June 2005.
- Global Oil Watch - Breaking Oil & Gas News
- Energy Bulletin