Carbon lock-in
Encyclopedia
Carbon Lock-In refers to the self-perpetuating inertia
created by large fossil fuel
-based energy systems
that inhibits public and private efforts to introduce alternative energy
technologies. The concept is most used in relation to the challenge of altering the current energy infrastructure to respond to global climate change
.
The concept and term was first coined by Gregory C. Unruh in a 1999 Fletcher School
, Tufts University
doctoral thesis entitled “Escaping Carbon Lock-In.” It has since gained popularity in climate change policy discussions, especially those focused on preventing the globalization
of carbon lock-in to rapidly industrializing countries like China
and India
.
The source of carbon lock-in inertia in energy systems arises from the co-evolution of large interdependent technological networks and the social institutions and cultural practice
s that support and benefit from system growth. The growth of the system is fostered by increasing returns to scale.
“…industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co-evolution
driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale. It is asserted that this condition, termed carbon lock-in, creates persistent market
and policy
failures that can inhibit the diffusion of carbon-saving technologies despite their apparent environmental and economic advantages.”
The concept emerged in response to what is termed the “climate policy paradox,” which recognizes that there is substantial scientific consensus
that climate change is a real and present threat to humans and other species uniquely adapted to current climatic conditions. Similarly there is evidence that technologies exist which can lower the carbon intensity of economic activity in a cost-effective manner, including energy efficiency
innovations as well as some renewable energy
applications. The existence of these apparent “win-win” no-regrets opportunities for society to act on climate concerns creates a paradox
. If such technologies exist, and they are cost effective and help minimize climate-forcing emissions, why aren’t they diffusing more rapidly? The conjecture is that industrial economies have become locked into fossil fuel technologies by past investment
s and policy decisions, the effects of positive feedback on increasing returns, and the economic growth of energy infrastructure.
and economic development
in industrialized countries has proceeded. The carbon lock-in framework builds hierarchically from individual technological artifacts, usually manufactured by for-profit organizations, to technological systems of interdependent artifacts. As these systems grow, they begin to have important societal implications drawing in government regulation of the system’s growth and development. The government’s involvement with system management, be it for safety, universal service or other national interests, institutionalizes the system and signals the emergence of a techno-institutional complex.
Over time consumer
s and the public adapt their lifestyles to the capabilities of the technology and the system becomes embedded in society. Examples of this process can be seen in the growth of automobile
-based transportation systems and fossil-fuel powered energy systems.
It is this co-evolutionary positive feedback
development process that creates the lock-in condition and associated barriers to the diffusion of alternative technologies
, even those with known superior environmental performance characteristics. A recent Oak Ridge National Laboratory
report entitled “Carbon Lock-In: Barriers to Deploying Climate Change Mitigation Technologies” (sponsored by the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program
, CCTP) classifies three major types of carbon lock-in barriers: cost effectiveness, financial/legal and intellectual property
barriers. Escaping the lock-in condition requires overcoming these barriers.
is indicating that current emission growth must be stopped and global emissions reduced by upwards of 60% if humanity is to prevent substantial unwanted climate disruption.
Addressing Carbon Lock-in through Carbon Capture and Storage:
How ready is capture ready? Preparing the UK power sector for carbon capture and storage, Dr Nils Markusson, Professor Stuart Haszeldine. Commissioned independent report for WWF UK. 21 May 2008.
Scottish Power Starts First UK Carbon Capture Trial at Plant,
Bloomberg - USA http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aV5Qr2SphPcU&refer=uk
Carbon Lock-in and Policy:
Prospects for a global deal on climate change: Three European views
McKinsey Quarterly (subscription) - New York,NY,USA http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Prospects_for_a_global_deal_on_climate_change_Three_European_views_2319
Halfway to Copenhagen
The Ecologist - London,UK http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/other_comments/278401/halfway_to_copenhagen.html
Road to Copenhagen - Part 2: Risky Business,
Huffington Post - New York,NY,USA http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-s-becker/road-to-copenhagen---part_b_343664.html
Carbon Market Prepares for Ukraine Deal
Bridges Trade, BioRes News Digest – Switzerland http://ictsd.net/i/news/biores/48726/
UNCTAD Report - Opportunities for trade and development
Global Arab Network
- English News - London,UK http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/200909192785/Economics/unctad-report-opportunities-for-trade-and-development.html
Inertia
Inertia is the resistance of any physical object to a change in its state of motion or rest, or the tendency of an object to resist any change in its motion. It is proportional to an object's mass. The principle of inertia is one of the fundamental principles of classical physics which are used to...
created by large fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuels are fuels formed by natural processes such as anaerobic decomposition of buried dead organisms. The age of the organisms and their resulting fossil fuels is typically millions of years, and sometimes exceeds 650 million years...
-based energy systems
Energy systems
There are three sources of Adenosine triphosphate , the body's main energy source on the cellular level.*ATP-PC system - This system is used only for very short durations of up to 10 seconds. The ATP-PC system neither uses oxygen nor produces lactic acid if oxygen is unavailable and is thus said...
that inhibits public and private efforts to introduce alternative energy
Alternative energy
Alternative energy is an umbrella term that refers to any source of usable energy intended to replace fuel sources without the undesired consequences of the replaced fuels....
technologies. The concept is most used in relation to the challenge of altering the current energy infrastructure to respond to global climate change
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
.
The concept and term was first coined by Gregory C. Unruh in a 1999 Fletcher School
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University is the oldest school in the United States dedicated solely to graduate studies in international affairs. It is regarded as one of the world's foremost schools of international affairs. Every Fall, the school enrolls approximately 265...
, Tufts University
Tufts University
Tufts University is a private research university located in Medford/Somerville, near Boston, Massachusetts. It is organized into ten schools, including two undergraduate programs and eight graduate divisions, on four campuses in Massachusetts and on the eastern border of France...
doctoral thesis entitled “Escaping Carbon Lock-In.” It has since gained popularity in climate change policy discussions, especially those focused on preventing the globalization
Globalization
Globalization refers to the increasingly global relationships of culture, people and economic activity. Most often, it refers to economics: the global distribution of the production of goods and services, through reduction of barriers to international trade such as tariffs, export fees, and import...
of carbon lock-in to rapidly industrializing countries like China
China
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
and India
India
India , officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous democracy in the world...
.
The source of carbon lock-in inertia in energy systems arises from the co-evolution of large interdependent technological networks and the social institutions and cultural practice
Cultural Practice
Cultural practice generally refers to the manifestation of a culture or sub-culture, especially in regard to the traditional and customary practices of a particular ethnic or other cultural group. In the broadest sense, this term can apply to any person manifesting any aspect of any culture at any...
s that support and benefit from system growth. The growth of the system is fostered by increasing returns to scale.
Introduction
According to Unruh (2000):“…industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co-evolution
Co-evolution
In biology, coevolution is "the change of a biological object triggered by the change of a related object." Coevolution can occur at many biological levels: it can be as microscopic as correlated mutations between amino acids in a protein, or as macroscopic as covarying traits between different...
driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale. It is asserted that this condition, termed carbon lock-in, creates persistent market
Market
A market is one of many varieties of systems, institutions, procedures, social relations and infrastructures whereby parties engage in exchange. While parties may exchange goods and services by barter, most markets rely on sellers offering their goods or services in exchange for money from buyers...
and policy
Policy
A policy is typically described as a principle or rule to guide decisions and achieve rational outcome. The term is not normally used to denote what is actually done, this is normally referred to as either procedure or protocol...
failures that can inhibit the diffusion of carbon-saving technologies despite their apparent environmental and economic advantages.”
The concept emerged in response to what is termed the “climate policy paradox,” which recognizes that there is substantial scientific consensus
Scientific consensus
Scientific consensus is the collective judgment, position, and opinion of the community of scientists in a particular field of study. Consensus implies general agreement, though not necessarily unanimity. Scientific consensus is not by itself a scientific argument, and it is not part of the...
that climate change is a real and present threat to humans and other species uniquely adapted to current climatic conditions. Similarly there is evidence that technologies exist which can lower the carbon intensity of economic activity in a cost-effective manner, including energy efficiency
Efficient energy use
Efficient energy use, sometimes simply called energy efficiency, is the goal of efforts to reduce the amount of energy required to provide products and services. For example, insulating a home allows a building to use less heating and cooling energy to achieve and maintain a comfortable temperature...
innovations as well as some renewable energy
Renewable energy
Renewable energy is energy which comes from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat, which are renewable . About 16% of global final energy consumption comes from renewables, with 10% coming from traditional biomass, which is mainly used for heating, and 3.4% from...
applications. The existence of these apparent “win-win” no-regrets opportunities for society to act on climate concerns creates a paradox
Paradox
Similar to Circular reasoning, A paradox is a seemingly true statement or group of statements that lead to a contradiction or a situation which seems to defy logic or intuition...
. If such technologies exist, and they are cost effective and help minimize climate-forcing emissions, why aren’t they diffusing more rapidly? The conjecture is that industrial economies have become locked into fossil fuel technologies by past investment
Investment
Investment has different meanings in finance and economics. Finance investment is putting money into something with the expectation of gain, that upon thorough analysis, has a high degree of security for the principal amount, as well as security of return, within an expected period of time...
s and policy decisions, the effects of positive feedback on increasing returns, and the economic growth of energy infrastructure.
A Co-Evolutionary Process
Carbon lock-in emerges over time as energyEnergy development
Energy development is the effort to provide sufficient primary energy sources and secondary energy forms for supply, cost, impact on air pollution and water pollution, mitigation of climate change with renewable energy....
and economic development
Economic development
Economic development generally refers to the sustained, concerted actions of policymakers and communities that promote the standard of living and economic health of a specific area...
in industrialized countries has proceeded. The carbon lock-in framework builds hierarchically from individual technological artifacts, usually manufactured by for-profit organizations, to technological systems of interdependent artifacts. As these systems grow, they begin to have important societal implications drawing in government regulation of the system’s growth and development. The government’s involvement with system management, be it for safety, universal service or other national interests, institutionalizes the system and signals the emergence of a techno-institutional complex.
Over time consumer
Consumer
Consumer is a broad label for any individuals or households that use goods generated within the economy. The concept of a consumer occurs in different contexts, so that the usage and significance of the term may vary.-Economics and marketing:...
s and the public adapt their lifestyles to the capabilities of the technology and the system becomes embedded in society. Examples of this process can be seen in the growth of automobile
Automobile
An automobile, autocar, motor car or car is a wheeled motor vehicle used for transporting passengers, which also carries its own engine or motor...
-based transportation systems and fossil-fuel powered energy systems.
It is this co-evolutionary positive feedback
Positive feedback
Positive feedback is a process in which the effects of a small disturbance on a system include an increase in the magnitude of the perturbation. That is, A produces more of B which in turn produces more of A. In contrast, a system that responds to a perturbation in a way that reduces its effect is...
development process that creates the lock-in condition and associated barriers to the diffusion of alternative technologies
Alternative technology
Alternative technology is a term used to refer to technologies that are more environmentally friendly than the functionally equivalent technologies dominant in current practice....
, even those with known superior environmental performance characteristics. A recent Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge National Laboratory is a multiprogram science and technology national laboratory managed for the United States Department of Energy by UT-Battelle. ORNL is the DOE's largest science and energy laboratory. ORNL is located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, near Knoxville...
report entitled “Carbon Lock-In: Barriers to Deploying Climate Change Mitigation Technologies” (sponsored by the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program
U.S. Climate Change Technology Program
The United States Climate Change Technology Program or CCTP is a multi-agency planning and coordination entity. Its purpose is to accelerate the development and deployment of technologies that can reduce, avoid, or capture and store greenhouse gas emissions. CCTP was established administratively in...
, CCTP) classifies three major types of carbon lock-in barriers: cost effectiveness, financial/legal and intellectual property
Intellectual property
Intellectual property is a term referring to a number of distinct types of creations of the mind for which a set of exclusive rights are recognized—and the corresponding fields of law...
barriers. Escaping the lock-in condition requires overcoming these barriers.
Globalizing Carbon Lock-In
The carbon lock-in concept has gained more attention as China’s rapid industrial economic development has progressed. The concern is that if China pursues the same fossil-fuel driven economic development models of established industrial counties, building out extensive automobile-based infrastructures and fossil-fuel powered energy systems, they will lock-in persistent and growing greenhouse gas emissions well into the future. The same arguments can be extended to all rapidly industrializing countries including India. This concern is arising as scientific evidenceScientific evidence
Scientific evidence has no universally accepted definition but generally refers to evidence which serves to either support or counter a scientific theory or hypothesis. Such evidence is generally expected to be empirical and properly documented in accordance with scientific method such as is...
is indicating that current emission growth must be stopped and global emissions reduced by upwards of 60% if humanity is to prevent substantial unwanted climate disruption.
External links
Carbon Lock-In: Barriers to Deploying Climate Change Mitigation Technologies http://www.ornl.gov/sci/eere/PDFs/ORNLTM-2007-124_rev200801.pdfAddressing Carbon Lock-in through Carbon Capture and Storage:
How ready is capture ready? Preparing the UK power sector for carbon capture and storage, Dr Nils Markusson, Professor Stuart Haszeldine. Commissioned independent report for WWF UK. 21 May 2008.
Scottish Power Starts First UK Carbon Capture Trial at Plant,
Bloomberg - USA http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aV5Qr2SphPcU&refer=uk
Carbon Lock-in and Policy:
Prospects for a global deal on climate change: Three European views
McKinsey Quarterly (subscription) - New York,NY,USA http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Prospects_for_a_global_deal_on_climate_change_Three_European_views_2319
Halfway to Copenhagen
The Ecologist - London,UK http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/other_comments/278401/halfway_to_copenhagen.html
Road to Copenhagen - Part 2: Risky Business,
Huffington Post - New York,NY,USA http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-s-becker/road-to-copenhagen---part_b_343664.html
Carbon Market Prepares for Ukraine Deal
Bridges Trade, BioRes News Digest – Switzerland http://ictsd.net/i/news/biores/48726/
UNCTAD Report - Opportunities for trade and development
Global Arab Network
Global Arab Network
Global Arab Network is a comprehensive news and information service about the Arab world in English and Arabic, registered and based in London, UK....
- English News - London,UK http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/200909192785/Economics/unctad-report-opportunities-for-trade-and-development.html