Bell's Law of Computer Classes
Encyclopedia
Bell's Law of Computer Classes formulated by Gordon Bell
in 1972 describes how computer classes form, evolve and may eventually die out. New classes create new applications resulting in new markets and new industries. Bell considers the law to be partially a corollary to Moore's Law
which states "the number of transistors per chip double every 24 months". Unlike Moore's Law, a new computer class is usually based on lower cost components that have fewer transistors or less bits on a magnetic surface, etc. A new class forms about every decade. It also takes up to a decade to understand how the class formed, evolved, and is likely to continue. Once formed, a lower priced class may evolve in performance to take over and disrupt an existing class. This evolution has caused clusters of scalable personal computer
s with 1 to thousands of computers to span a price and performance range of use from a PC, through mainframes
, to become the largest supercomputers of the day. Scalable clusters became a universal class beginning in the mid-1990s; by 2010, clusters of at least one million independent computers will constitute the world's largest cluster.
Definition: Roughly every decade a new, lower priced computer class forms based on a new programming platform, network, and interface resulting in new usage and the establishment of a new industry.
Established market class computers aka platforms are introduced and continue to evolve at roughly a constant price (subject to learning curve cost reduction) with increasing functionality (or performance) based on Moore's Law that gives more transistors per chip, more bits per unit area, or increased functionality per system. Roughly every decade, technology advances in semiconductors, storage, networks, and interfaces enable a new, lower cost computer class aka platform to form to serve a new need that is enabled by smaller devices e.g. less transistors per chip, less expensive storage, displays, i/o, network, and unique interface to people or some other information processing sink or source. Each new lower priced class is then established and maintained as a quasi independent industry and market. Such a class is likely to evolve to substitute for an existing class or classes as described above with computer clusters.
Bell predicts that home and body area networks will form by 2010.
As of 2005, Bell believes i.e. is betting that CPSDs will form a dominant computer class or platform measured by units and revenue. These evolve from the phone and PDA
functions to include new "killer application
s" yet to be determined. Furthermore, CPSDs will substitute for many PC's functions (e.g. email, web browsing). Use will evolve, with or without attachments (e.g. keyboards, displays for document creation, presentations), to include almost all of the PC's functions except large file stores for video content.
Beginning in the 1990s, a single class of scalable computers or mega-servers, built from clusters of a few to tens of thousands of commodity microcomputer-storage-networked bricks, began to cover and replace mainframes, minis, and workstations to become the largest computers of the day, or what is commonly called a supercomputer.
. The emergence and observation of a new, lower priced microcomputer class based on the microprocessor stimulated the creation of the law that Bell described in articles and Bell's books. See also the several laws (e.g. Moore's law
, Metcalfe's law
, that describe and govern the computer industry.
Gordon Bell
C. Gordon Bell is an American computer engineer and manager. An early employee of Digital Equipment Corporation 1960–1966, Bell designed several of their PDP machines and later became Vice President of Engineering 1972-1983, overseeing the development of the VAX...
in 1972 describes how computer classes form, evolve and may eventually die out. New classes create new applications resulting in new markets and new industries. Bell considers the law to be partially a corollary to Moore's Law
Moore's Law
Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware: the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years....
which states "the number of transistors per chip double every 24 months". Unlike Moore's Law, a new computer class is usually based on lower cost components that have fewer transistors or less bits on a magnetic surface, etc. A new class forms about every decade. It also takes up to a decade to understand how the class formed, evolved, and is likely to continue. Once formed, a lower priced class may evolve in performance to take over and disrupt an existing class. This evolution has caused clusters of scalable personal computer
Personal computer
A personal computer is any general-purpose computer whose size, capabilities, and original sales price make it useful for individuals, and which is intended to be operated directly by an end-user with no intervening computer operator...
s with 1 to thousands of computers to span a price and performance range of use from a PC, through mainframes
Mainframe computer
Mainframes are powerful computers used primarily by corporate and governmental organizations for critical applications, bulk data processing such as census, industry and consumer statistics, enterprise resource planning, and financial transaction processing.The term originally referred to the...
, to become the largest supercomputers of the day. Scalable clusters became a universal class beginning in the mid-1990s; by 2010, clusters of at least one million independent computers will constitute the world's largest cluster.
Definition: Roughly every decade a new, lower priced computer class forms based on a new programming platform, network, and interface resulting in new usage and the establishment of a new industry.
Established market class computers aka platforms are introduced and continue to evolve at roughly a constant price (subject to learning curve cost reduction) with increasing functionality (or performance) based on Moore's Law that gives more transistors per chip, more bits per unit area, or increased functionality per system. Roughly every decade, technology advances in semiconductors, storage, networks, and interfaces enable a new, lower cost computer class aka platform to form to serve a new need that is enabled by smaller devices e.g. less transistors per chip, less expensive storage, displays, i/o, network, and unique interface to people or some other information processing sink or source. Each new lower priced class is then established and maintained as a quasi independent industry and market. Such a class is likely to evolve to substitute for an existing class or classes as described above with computer clusters.
Computers classes that conform to the law
As of 2010, the computer classes include:- mainframes (1960s)
- minicomputers (1970s) These are essentially replaced by clusters of PCs.
- personal computers and workstations evolving into a network enabled by Local Area Networking or EthernetEthernetEthernet is a family of computer networking technologies for local area networks commercially introduced in 1980. Standardized in IEEE 802.3, Ethernet has largely replaced competing wired LAN technologies....
(1980s) - web browser client-server structures enabled by the InternetInternetThe Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet protocol suite to serve billions of users worldwide...
(1990s) - web services, e.g. Microsoft's .NET (2000s) or the Grid
- small form-factor devices such as cell phones and other cell phone sized devices (CPSD), e.g. BlackBerriesBlackBerryBlackBerry is a line of mobile email and smartphone devices developed and designed by Canadian company Research In Motion since 1999.BlackBerry devices are smartphones, designed to function as personal digital assistants, portable media players, internet browsers, gaming devices, and much more...
, iPodIPodiPod is a line of portable media players created and marketed by Apple Inc. The product line-up currently consists of the hard drive-based iPod Classic, the touchscreen iPod Touch, the compact iPod Nano, and the ultra-compact iPod Shuffle...
s, iPhoneIPhoneThe iPhone is a line of Internet and multimedia-enabled smartphones marketed by Apple Inc. The first iPhone was unveiled by Steve Jobs, then CEO of Apple, on January 9, 2007, and released on June 29, 2007...
s, SmartphoneSmartphoneA smartphone is a high-end mobile phone built on a mobile computing platform, with more advanced computing ability and connectivity than a contemporary feature phone. The first smartphones were devices that mainly combined the functions of a personal digital assistant and a mobile phone or camera...
s, and Trēos (c. 2000) - Wireless Sensor Networks, aka motes (c. >2005)
Bell predicts that home and body area networks will form by 2010.
As of 2005, Bell believes i.e. is betting that CPSDs will form a dominant computer class or platform measured by units and revenue. These evolve from the phone and PDA
Personal digital assistant
A personal digital assistant , also known as a palmtop computer, or personal data assistant, is a mobile device that functions as a personal information manager. Current PDAs often have the ability to connect to the Internet...
functions to include new "killer application
Killer application
A killer application , in the jargon of marketing teams, has been used to refer to any computer program that is so necessary or desirable that it proves the core value of some larger technology, such as computer hardware, gaming console, software, or an operating system...
s" yet to be determined. Furthermore, CPSDs will substitute for many PC's functions (e.g. email, web browsing). Use will evolve, with or without attachments (e.g. keyboards, displays for document creation, presentations), to include almost all of the PC's functions except large file stores for video content.
Beginning in the 1990s, a single class of scalable computers or mega-servers, built from clusters of a few to tens of thousands of commodity microcomputer-storage-networked bricks, began to cover and replace mainframes, minis, and workstations to become the largest computers of the day, or what is commonly called a supercomputer.
History
Bell's Law of Computer Classes and Class formation was first mentioned in 1970 with the introduction of the Digital Equipment PDP-11 mini to differentiate it from mainframes and the potentially emerging micros. The Law was described in 1972 by Gordon BellGordon Bell
C. Gordon Bell is an American computer engineer and manager. An early employee of Digital Equipment Corporation 1960–1966, Bell designed several of their PDP machines and later became Vice President of Engineering 1972-1983, overseeing the development of the VAX...
. The emergence and observation of a new, lower priced microcomputer class based on the microprocessor stimulated the creation of the law that Bell described in articles and Bell's books. See also the several laws (e.g. Moore's law
Moore's Law
Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware: the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years....
, Metcalfe's law
Metcalfe's law
Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected usersof the system...
, that describe and govern the computer industry.