Aging of Europe
Encyclopedia
The Ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe
characterized by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate
, and a higher life expectancy
among Europeans.
projected in September 2006 that the ratio of retirees to workers in Europe will double to 0.54 by 2050 (from four workers per retiree to two workers per retiree). William H. Frey, an analyst for the Brookings Institution
think tank
, predicts the median age in Europe will increase from 37.7 years old in 2003 to 52.3 years old by 2050 while the median age of Americans will rise to only 35.4 years old.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
estimates only 39% of Europeans between the ages of 55 to 65 work. If Frey's prediction for Europe's rising median age is correct, Europe's economic output could radically decrease over the next four decades.
Austria's Social Affairs Minister said in 2006 that, by 2010 and 4007, the 55 to 64 year old age bracket in the European Union
would be larger than the 15 to 24 year old bracket. The Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission issued a report in 2006 estimating the working age population in the EU will decrease by 48 million, a 16% reduction, between 2010 and 2050, while the elderly population will increase by 58 million, a gain of 77%.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union
will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030.
of the population of the native European peoples needs to be reversed from its present level of about 1.4, which if continued would mean a population decline of the native European peoples by nearly half in each generation
, back to a replacement level of 2.1 to prevent the overwhelming of Europe by what has been described as "hordes of legal and illegal immigrants," which have been (and would continue to be) considered necessary to allow to migrate to the homeland of the native European peoples in order to prevent labor shortage
s. It has been argued that immigration leads to ethnic conflicts, such as the 2005 civil unrest in France
.
and a rate 1.92 children per woman in 2010 according to the CIA Factbook. The second highest fertility rate of the European powers just below France
at 2. It is expected for the United Kingdom's population to rise to 76.8 million by 2050.
overtook Ireland
as the European Union member state with the highest birth-rate in 2007. If the projected birth rates continue, France will have the largest population in the EU
by 2050, with 75 million citizens, before Germany
. In 2010, Ireland retook the title of the European Union's highest fertility rate at 2.03 children per woman compared to France's rate of 1.97 children per woman.
With 82 million inhabitants in January 2010, Germany
is the most populous country in the European Union. However, its fertility rate
of 1.42 children per mother is one of the lowest in the
world, and the federal statistics office estimates the population will shrink to between 65 and 70 million by 2060 (65 million assuming a net migration of +100,000 per year; 70 million assuming a net migration of +200,000 per year). With death rates continuously exceeding low-level birth rates, Germany is one of a few countries for which the demographic transition model
would require a fifth stage in order to capture its demographic development. In Germany, the population growth rate has declined so much that the Bauhaus Dessau Foundation
came up with comprehensive plans to tear down numerous buildings and replace them with park
s in various cities and the Government of Germany developed a plan to reduce at great expense the width of sewer pipes in various cities.
will need to raise its retirement age to 77 or admit 2.2 million immigrants annually to maintain its worker to retiree ratio. About 25% of Italian women do not have children while another 25% only have one child.
The region of Liguria
in northwestern Italy now has the highest ratio of elderly to youth in the world. Ten percent of Liguria's schools closed in the first decade of the 21st century. The city of Genoa
, one of Italy's largest and the capital of Liguria, is declining faster than most European cities with a death rate of 13.7 deaths per 1,000 people, almost twice the birth rate, 7.7 births per 1,000 people, .
The Italian government has tried to limit and reverse the trend by offering financial incentives to couples who have children, and by increasing immigration
. While fertility
has remained stagnant, immigration has minimized the drop in the workforce
.
Italy, a nation which produced more emigrants than immigrants for years, is struggling with its new-found status as a nation of immigration. Concern over rising rates of criminal activity and terrorism has fuelled support for Lega Nord, a regionalist
political party in northern Italy where most of Italy's immigrants reside.
More than 30% of Italian males over the age of 30 live in homes owned by their parents. Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa
, former Italy's Economy Minister, proposed granting a tax break
, worth €1,000, to Italians between the ages of 20 and 40 who rent apartments.
He publicized the idea during a Senate
hearing on the government's budget for 2008, referring to the young men as "bamboccioni," big babies. Union
leader Guglielmo Epifani and writer
Aldo Nove said Padoa-Schioppa's tax break does not go far enough.
Nove, author of My Name is Roberta, I'm 40 years old and earn 250 euros a month, said that in 1978 a tenant spent about 25% of his salary on housing. Now renting an apartment exceeds the salary of a young worker. "What else is there to say?" Comedian and activist Beppe Grillo
published on his blog
a letter from one of these young men living with their parents, where he detailed how it is economically impossible for him to move to any available apartment, because of low wages and high rents.
's 3.9 children per woman. By 1993 Spanish fertility declined to 1.26 children per woman, the second lowest after Italy
.
In 1999, Rocío Fernández-Ballesteros, Juan Díez-Nicolás, and Antonio Ruiz-Torres of Autónoma University in Madrid
published a study on Spain's demography, predicting life expectancy
of 77.7 for males and 83.8 for females by 2020. Arup Banerji and economist Mukesh Chawla of the World Bank
predicted in July 2007 that half of Spain's population will be older than 55 by 2050, giving Spain the highest median age of any nation in the world.
In recent years, Spain's fertility rate has grown from 1.15 children per woman in 2000 to 1.47 in 2010.
's population census of 1994 found that 13.1% of the population was above the age of 65. Average life expectancy for Portuguese increased by eight years between the 1980s and the first decade of the 21st century.
In the 1960s life expectancy for men ranked comparatively low in relation to other Western European nations, with 61.2 years for men and 77.5 years for women. As of 2006, the average for both sexes was at 77.7 years. In 1999 demographers predicted the percentage of elderly Portuguese would increase to 16.2% and 17.6% in 2010.
Recent studies in the newspaper "Público" showed that the population may shrink to 7.5 millions (-29% of the current population, -0,7% of average populational growth per year) in 2050, if the fertility rate continues at 1,45 children/woman; and the emigration almost stationary due to the economic crisis.
's (IMF) High Council of Finance's (HCF) Study Committee on Aging (SCA) predicted in 2007 that Belgium
's population will increase by 5% by 2050 due to immigration, a higher fertility rate, and longer life expectancy. However, the IMF's study indicates Belgium's elderly population will increase by over 63% to over 25% of the country's overall population.
The Belgian government spent 9.1% of its GDP on pensions and 7.1% on health care expenses in 2005. By 2050 total social spending is expected to increase by 5.8%, assuming there is no change in the age of retirement. Most of this higher social spending comes from pension and health care, rising by 3.9% to 13.0% of GDP and 3.7% to 10.8% of GDP respectively.
The decline in the workforce will partly compensate by lowering unemployment which will in turn lower the cost of childcare. The IMF also predicts that by 2050 the percentage of Belgian population over the age of 65 will increase from 16% to 25%.
issued a report on June 20, 2007, "From Red To Grey: 'The Third Transition' of Aging Populations In Eastern Europe
and the Former Soviet Union
," predicting that between 2007 and 2027 the populations of Georgia
and Ukraine
will decrease by 17% and 24% respectively. The World Bank
estimates the population of 65 or older citizens in Poland
and Slovenia
will increase from 13% to 21% and 16% to 24% respectively between 2005 and 2025.
The population of Russia
declined from its peak of 148,689,000 in 1990, to about 143 million people in 2005, a 4% decline. The World Bank
predicted in 2005 that the population was set to decrease to 111 million by 2050, a 22% decline, if trends did not improve. The United Nations
similarly warned that the population could decline by one third by mid-century.
The population decline in Russia has been caused by low birth rates and abnormally high death rates for working age males. Lev Gudkov, a demographer with the Russian Center for Public Opinion Research, estimated in 2002 that over the next fifty years Russia's population may decrease by 72 million people, a 50% decline, with one retiree for every worker, describing parts of Siberia
and the Far East
as depopulated "deserts". A commentary published by Rodina
suggested that those Russian sociologists making the gloomiest predictions were working for western organizations committed to destroying Russia. Nationalists have widely blamed the problem on the presence of women in the workplace, arguing working women lower Russia's fertility rate.
However in 2006, a national programme was developed with a goal to reverse the decline by 2020. A study published shortly after in 2007 showed that the rate of population decrease had slowed: According to the study, deaths exceeded births by 1.3 times, down from 1.5 times in the previous year, thus, if the net decrease in January–August 2006 was 408,200 people, in the same period during 2007 it was 196,600. The decline continued to slow in 2008 with only half the population loss compared to 2007. The reversal continued at the same pace in 2009 as death rates continued to fall, birth rates continued to rise and net migration stayed steady at about 250 thousand; In 2009 Russia saw population growth for the first time in 15 years.
The number of Russians living in poverty has halved since the economic crisis following the disintegration of the Soviet Union
, and the improving economy has had a positive impact on the country's low birth-rate, as it rose from its lowest point of 8.27 births per 1000 people in 1999 to 11.28 per 1000 in 2007.
Russian Ministry of Economic Development hopes that by 2020 the population will stabilize at 138-139 million, and that by 2025 it will begin to increase again to its present day status of 142-145, also raising the life expectancy to 75 years.
The two leading causes of death in Russia are heart disease
and stroke
, accounting for about 52% of all deaths. While cardiovascular disease
-related deaths decreased in Japan
, North America
, and Western Europe
between 1965 and 2001, in Russia CVD deaths increased by 25% for women and 65% for men.
The percentage of infertile, married couples rose to 13% in the first decade of the 21st century, partially due to poorly performed abortion
s. According to expert Murray Feshbach 10-20% of women who have abortions in Russia are made infertile, though according to the 2002 census, only about 6-7% of women have not had children by the end of their reproductive years.
Provincial governments have begun offering special incentives to couples who procreate. In 2005 Sergei Morozov, the Governor of Ulyanovsk
, made September 12 a provincial holiday, the "Day of Conception
," on which couples are given half of the work day off to copulate.
Mothers who give birth on June 12, Russia's national day, are rewarded with money and expensive consumer items. In the first round of the competition 311 women participated and 46 babies were born on the following June 12. Over 500 women participated in the second round in 2006 and 78 gave birth. The province's birth rate rose 4.5% between 2006 and 2007.
Large-scale immigration
is suggested as a solution to declining workforces in western nations, but according to the BBC
, would be unacceptable to most Russians. Organizations like the World Health Organization
and the UN have called on the Russian government to take the problem more seriously, stressing that a number of simple measures such as raising the price of alcohol
or forcing people to wear seat belts might make a lasting difference. In January 2010, in an effort to combat bootlegged vodka, the government set a minimum price for vodka, more than doubling the cost of the cheapest vodka on the market which is often much more hazardous to consume than legal vodka.
Then-President Vladimir Putin
said in a state of the nation address that "no sort of immigration will solve Russia's demographic problem". Yevgeny Krasinyev, head of migration studies at the state-run Institute of Social and Economic Population Studies in Moscow, said Russia should only accept immigrants from the Commonwealth of Independent States
, a view echoed by Alexander Belyakov, the head of the Duma
's Resources Committee.
Migration
in Russia grew by 50.2% in 2007, and an additional 2.7% in 2008, helping stem the population decline. Migrants to Russia primarily come from CIS states and are Russians or Russian speakers. Thousands of migrant workers from Ukraine
, Moldova
, and the rest of the CIS have also entered Russia illegally, working but avoiding taxes. There are an estimated 10 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet
states in Russia.
General:
Demographic economics:
Europe
Europe is, by convention, one of the world's seven continents. Comprising the westernmost peninsula of Eurasia, Europe is generally 'divided' from Asia to its east by the watershed divides of the Ural and Caucasus Mountains, the Ural River, the Caspian and Black Seas, and the waterways connecting...
characterized by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate
Mortality rate
Mortality rate is a measure of the number of deaths in a population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit time...
, and a higher life expectancy
Life expectancy
Life expectancy is the expected number of years of life remaining at a given age. It is denoted by ex, which means the average number of subsequent years of life for someone now aged x, according to a particular mortality experience...
among Europeans.
Overall trends
Giuseppe Carone and Declan Costello of the International Monetary FundInternational Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world...
projected in September 2006 that the ratio of retirees to workers in Europe will double to 0.54 by 2050 (from four workers per retiree to two workers per retiree). William H. Frey, an analyst for the Brookings Institution
Brookings Institution
The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, D.C., in the United States. One of Washington's oldest think tanks, Brookings conducts research and education in the social sciences, primarily in economics, metropolitan policy, governance, foreign policy, and...
think tank
Think tank
A think tank is an organization that conducts research and engages in advocacy in areas such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, and technology issues. Most think tanks are non-profit organizations, which some countries such as the United States and Canada provide with tax...
, predicts the median age in Europe will increase from 37.7 years old in 2003 to 52.3 years old by 2050 while the median age of Americans will rise to only 35.4 years old.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is an international economic organisation of 34 countries founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade...
estimates only 39% of Europeans between the ages of 55 to 65 work. If Frey's prediction for Europe's rising median age is correct, Europe's economic output could radically decrease over the next four decades.
Austria's Social Affairs Minister said in 2006 that, by 2010 and 4007, the 55 to 64 year old age bracket in the European Union
European Union
The European Union is an economic and political union of 27 independent member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community , formed by six countries in 1958...
would be larger than the 15 to 24 year old bracket. The Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission issued a report in 2006 estimating the working age population in the EU will decrease by 48 million, a 16% reduction, between 2010 and 2050, while the elderly population will increase by 58 million, a gain of 77%.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union
European Union
The European Union is an economic and political union of 27 independent member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community , formed by six countries in 1958...
will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030.
Consequences the ageing of Europe
Many are worried about the decline in the rate of population growth of the native European peoples since the end of World War II. It is contended by some such persons that the declining birth rateBirth rate
Crude birth rate is the nativity or childbirths per 1,000 people per year . Another word used interchangeably with "birth rate" is "natality". When the crude birth rate is subtracted from the crude death rate, it reveals the rate of natural increase...
of the population of the native European peoples needs to be reversed from its present level of about 1.4, which if continued would mean a population decline of the native European peoples by nearly half in each generation
Generation
Generation , also known as procreation in biological sciences, is the act of producing offspring....
, back to a replacement level of 2.1 to prevent the overwhelming of Europe by what has been described as "hordes of legal and illegal immigrants," which have been (and would continue to be) considered necessary to allow to migrate to the homeland of the native European peoples in order to prevent labor shortage
Labor shortage
In its narrowest definition, a labor shortage is an economic condition in which there are insufficient qualified candidates to fill the market-place demands for employment at any price...
s. It has been argued that immigration leads to ethnic conflicts, such as the 2005 civil unrest in France
2005 civil unrest in France
The 2005 civil unrest in France of October and November was a series of riots by mostly Muslim North African youths in Paris and other French cities, involving mainly the burning of cars and public buildings at night starting on 27 October 2005 in Clichy-sous-Bois...
.
United Kingdom
The UK has a fertility rate of 1.94 in 2008 according to World BankWorld Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...
and a rate 1.92 children per woman in 2010 according to the CIA Factbook. The second highest fertility rate of the European powers just below France
France
The French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...
at 2. It is expected for the United Kingdom's population to rise to 76.8 million by 2050.
France
FranceFrance
The French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...
overtook Ireland
Ireland
Ireland is an island to the northwest of continental Europe. It is the third-largest island in Europe and the twentieth-largest island on Earth...
as the European Union member state with the highest birth-rate in 2007. If the projected birth rates continue, France will have the largest population in the EU
European Union
The European Union is an economic and political union of 27 independent member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community , formed by six countries in 1958...
by 2050, with 75 million citizens, before Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
. In 2010, Ireland retook the title of the European Union's highest fertility rate at 2.03 children per woman compared to France's rate of 1.97 children per woman.
Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
is the most populous country in the European Union. However, its fertility rate
Total Fertility Rate
The total fertility rate of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates through her lifetime, and she...
of 1.42 children per mother is one of the lowest in the
world, and the federal statistics office estimates the population will shrink to between 65 and 70 million by 2060 (65 million assuming a net migration of +100,000 per year; 70 million assuming a net migration of +200,000 per year). With death rates continuously exceeding low-level birth rates, Germany is one of a few countries for which the demographic transition model
Demographic transition
The demographic transition model is the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American...
would require a fifth stage in order to capture its demographic development. In Germany, the population growth rate has declined so much that the Bauhaus Dessau Foundation
Bauhaus Dessau Foundation
The Bauhaus Dessau Foundation is a Foundation under public law. It is a centre of research, teaching and experimental design. The Foundation in its current form was founded by the German Federal Government, the state of Saxony-Anhalt and the town Dessau in 1994. It is based in the historical...
came up with comprehensive plans to tear down numerous buildings and replace them with park
Park
A park is a protected area, in its natural or semi-natural state, or planted, and set aside for human recreation and enjoyment, or for the protection of wildlife or natural habitats. It may consist of rocks, soil, water, flora and fauna and grass areas. Many parks are legally protected by...
s in various cities and the Government of Germany developed a plan to reduce at great expense the width of sewer pipes in various cities.
Italy
ItalyItaly
Italy , officially the Italian Republic languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Italy's official name is as follows:;;;;;;;;), is a unitary parliamentary republic in South-Central Europe. To the north it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and...
will need to raise its retirement age to 77 or admit 2.2 million immigrants annually to maintain its worker to retiree ratio. About 25% of Italian women do not have children while another 25% only have one child.
The region of Liguria
Liguria
Liguria is a coastal region of north-western Italy, the third smallest of the Italian regions. Its capital is Genoa. It is a popular region with tourists for its beautiful beaches, picturesque little towns, and good food.-Geography:...
in northwestern Italy now has the highest ratio of elderly to youth in the world. Ten percent of Liguria's schools closed in the first decade of the 21st century. The city of Genoa
Genoa
Genoa |Ligurian]] Zena ; Latin and, archaically, English Genua) is a city and an important seaport in northern Italy, the capital of the Province of Genoa and of the region of Liguria....
, one of Italy's largest and the capital of Liguria, is declining faster than most European cities with a death rate of 13.7 deaths per 1,000 people, almost twice the birth rate, 7.7 births per 1,000 people, .
The Italian government has tried to limit and reverse the trend by offering financial incentives to couples who have children, and by increasing immigration
Immigration
Immigration is the act of foreigners passing or coming into a country for the purpose of permanent residence...
. While fertility
Fertility
Fertility is the natural capability of producing offsprings. As a measure, "fertility rate" is the number of children born per couple, person or population. Fertility differs from fecundity, which is defined as the potential for reproduction...
has remained stagnant, immigration has minimized the drop in the workforce
Workforce
The workforce is the labour pool in employment. It is generally used to describe those working for a single company or industry, but can also apply to a geographic region like a city, country, state, etc. The term generally excludes the employers or management, and implies those involved in...
.
Italy, a nation which produced more emigrants than immigrants for years, is struggling with its new-found status as a nation of immigration. Concern over rising rates of criminal activity and terrorism has fuelled support for Lega Nord, a regionalist
Regionalism (politics)
Regionalism is a term used in international relations. Regionalism also constitutes one of the three constituents of the international commercial system...
political party in northern Italy where most of Italy's immigrants reside.
More than 30% of Italian males over the age of 30 live in homes owned by their parents. Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa
Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa
Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa , Knight Grand Cross was a well-known pro-European Italian banker and economist who was Italy's Minister of Economy and Finance from May 2006 until May 2008...
, former Italy's Economy Minister, proposed granting a tax break
Tax break
Tax break is a slang term referring to any item which reduces tax, including any tax exemption, tax deduction, or tax credit. Tax break is also a pejorative term used in the United States to refer to purportedly favorable tax treatment of any class of persons, as in "individuals get a tax break...
, worth €1,000, to Italians between the ages of 20 and 40 who rent apartments.
He publicized the idea during a Senate
Italian Senate
The Senate of the Republic is the upper house of the Italian Parliament. It was established in its current form on 8 May 1948, but previously existed during the Kingdom of Italy as Senato del Regno , itself a continuation of the Senato Subalpino of Sardinia-Piedmont established on 8 May 1848...
hearing on the government's budget for 2008, referring to the young men as "bamboccioni," big babies. Union
Trade union
A trade union, trades union or labor union is an organization of workers that have banded together to achieve common goals such as better working conditions. The trade union, through its leadership, bargains with the employer on behalf of union members and negotiates labour contracts with...
leader Guglielmo Epifani and writer
Writer
A writer is a person who produces literature, such as novels, short stories, plays, screenplays, poetry, or other literary art. Skilled writers are able to use language to portray ideas and images....
Aldo Nove said Padoa-Schioppa's tax break does not go far enough.
Nove, author of My Name is Roberta, I'm 40 years old and earn 250 euros a month, said that in 1978 a tenant spent about 25% of his salary on housing. Now renting an apartment exceeds the salary of a young worker. "What else is there to say?" Comedian and activist Beppe Grillo
Beppe Grillo
Giuseppe Piero Grillo, better known as Beppe Grillo , is an Italian activist, blogger, comedian, actor and politician, who also works in theatres and television.-Biography:Grillo was born in Genoa, Liguria....
published on his blog
Blog
A blog is a type of website or part of a website supposed to be updated with new content from time to time. Blogs are usually maintained by an individual with regular entries of commentary, descriptions of events, or other material such as graphics or video. Entries are commonly displayed in...
a letter from one of these young men living with their parents, where he detailed how it is economically impossible for him to move to any available apartment, because of low wages and high rents.
Spain
In 1970, Spain's TFR, 2.9 children per woman, ranked second in Western Europe after IrelandRepublic of Ireland
Ireland , described as the Republic of Ireland , is a sovereign state in Europe occupying approximately five-sixths of the island of the same name. Its capital is Dublin. Ireland, which had a population of 4.58 million in 2011, is a constitutional republic governed as a parliamentary democracy,...
's 3.9 children per woman. By 1993 Spanish fertility declined to 1.26 children per woman, the second lowest after Italy
Italy
Italy , officially the Italian Republic languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Italy's official name is as follows:;;;;;;;;), is a unitary parliamentary republic in South-Central Europe. To the north it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and...
.
In 1999, Rocío Fernández-Ballesteros, Juan Díez-Nicolás, and Antonio Ruiz-Torres of Autónoma University in Madrid
Madrid
Madrid is the capital and largest city of Spain. The population of the city is roughly 3.3 million and the entire population of the Madrid metropolitan area is calculated to be 6.271 million. It is the third largest city in the European Union, after London and Berlin, and its metropolitan...
published a study on Spain's demography, predicting life expectancy
Life expectancy
Life expectancy is the expected number of years of life remaining at a given age. It is denoted by ex, which means the average number of subsequent years of life for someone now aged x, according to a particular mortality experience...
of 77.7 for males and 83.8 for females by 2020. Arup Banerji and economist Mukesh Chawla of the World Bank
World Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...
predicted in July 2007 that half of Spain's population will be older than 55 by 2050, giving Spain the highest median age of any nation in the world.
In recent years, Spain's fertility rate has grown from 1.15 children per woman in 2000 to 1.47 in 2010.
Portugal
PortugalPortugal
Portugal , officially the Portuguese Republic is a country situated in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula. Portugal is the westernmost country of Europe, and is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the West and South and by Spain to the North and East. The Atlantic archipelagos of the...
's population census of 1994 found that 13.1% of the population was above the age of 65. Average life expectancy for Portuguese increased by eight years between the 1980s and the first decade of the 21st century.
In the 1960s life expectancy for men ranked comparatively low in relation to other Western European nations, with 61.2 years for men and 77.5 years for women. As of 2006, the average for both sexes was at 77.7 years. In 1999 demographers predicted the percentage of elderly Portuguese would increase to 16.2% and 17.6% in 2010.
Recent studies in the newspaper "Público" showed that the population may shrink to 7.5 millions (-29% of the current population, -0,7% of average populational growth per year) in 2050, if the fertility rate continues at 1,45 children/woman; and the emigration almost stationary due to the economic crisis.
Belgium
The International Monetary FundInternational Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world...
's (IMF) High Council of Finance's (HCF) Study Committee on Aging (SCA) predicted in 2007 that Belgium
Belgium
Belgium , officially the Kingdom of Belgium, is a federal state in Western Europe. It is a founding member of the European Union and hosts the EU's headquarters, and those of several other major international organisations such as NATO.Belgium is also a member of, or affiliated to, many...
's population will increase by 5% by 2050 due to immigration, a higher fertility rate, and longer life expectancy. However, the IMF's study indicates Belgium's elderly population will increase by over 63% to over 25% of the country's overall population.
The Belgian government spent 9.1% of its GDP on pensions and 7.1% on health care expenses in 2005. By 2050 total social spending is expected to increase by 5.8%, assuming there is no change in the age of retirement. Most of this higher social spending comes from pension and health care, rising by 3.9% to 13.0% of GDP and 3.7% to 10.8% of GDP respectively.
The decline in the workforce will partly compensate by lowering unemployment which will in turn lower the cost of childcare. The IMF also predicts that by 2050 the percentage of Belgian population over the age of 65 will increase from 16% to 25%.
Central and Eastern Europe
The World BankWorld Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...
issued a report on June 20, 2007, "From Red To Grey: 'The Third Transition' of Aging Populations In Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe is the eastern part of Europe. The term has widely disparate geopolitical, geographical, cultural and socioeconomic readings, which makes it highly context-dependent and even volatile, and there are "almost as many definitions of Eastern Europe as there are scholars of the region"...
and the Former Soviet Union
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....
," predicting that between 2007 and 2027 the populations of Georgia
Georgia (country)
Georgia is a sovereign state in the Caucasus region of Eurasia. Located at the crossroads of Western Asia and Eastern Europe, it is bounded to the west by the Black Sea, to the north by Russia, to the southwest by Turkey, to the south by Armenia, and to the southeast by Azerbaijan. The capital of...
and Ukraine
Ukraine
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It has an area of 603,628 km², making it the second largest contiguous country on the European continent, after Russia...
will decrease by 17% and 24% respectively. The World Bank
World Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...
estimates the population of 65 or older citizens in Poland
Poland
Poland , officially the Republic of Poland , is a country in Central Europe bordered by Germany to the west; the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south; Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania to the east; and the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave, to the north...
and Slovenia
Slovenia
Slovenia , officially the Republic of Slovenia , is a country in Central and Southeastern Europe touching the Alps and bordering the Mediterranean. Slovenia borders Italy to the west, Croatia to the south and east, Hungary to the northeast, and Austria to the north, and also has a small portion of...
will increase from 13% to 21% and 16% to 24% respectively between 2005 and 2025.
Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
declined from its peak of 148,689,000 in 1990, to about 143 million people in 2005, a 4% decline. The World Bank
World Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...
predicted in 2005 that the population was set to decrease to 111 million by 2050, a 22% decline, if trends did not improve. The United Nations
United Nations
The United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...
similarly warned that the population could decline by one third by mid-century.
The population decline in Russia has been caused by low birth rates and abnormally high death rates for working age males. Lev Gudkov, a demographer with the Russian Center for Public Opinion Research, estimated in 2002 that over the next fifty years Russia's population may decrease by 72 million people, a 50% decline, with one retiree for every worker, describing parts of Siberia
Siberia
Siberia is an extensive region constituting almost all of Northern Asia. Comprising the central and eastern portion of the Russian Federation, it was part of the Soviet Union from its beginning, as its predecessor states, the Tsardom of Russia and the Russian Empire, conquered it during the 16th...
and the Far East
Russian Far East
Russian Far East is a term that refers to the Russian part of the Far East, i.e., extreme east parts of Russia, between Lake Baikal in Eastern Siberia and the Pacific Ocean...
as depopulated "deserts". A commentary published by Rodina
Rodina
Rodina or Motherland-National Patriotic Union was one of the four parties that controlled seats in the Russian legislature in 2003-2007...
suggested that those Russian sociologists making the gloomiest predictions were working for western organizations committed to destroying Russia. Nationalists have widely blamed the problem on the presence of women in the workplace, arguing working women lower Russia's fertility rate.
However in 2006, a national programme was developed with a goal to reverse the decline by 2020. A study published shortly after in 2007 showed that the rate of population decrease had slowed: According to the study, deaths exceeded births by 1.3 times, down from 1.5 times in the previous year, thus, if the net decrease in January–August 2006 was 408,200 people, in the same period during 2007 it was 196,600. The decline continued to slow in 2008 with only half the population loss compared to 2007. The reversal continued at the same pace in 2009 as death rates continued to fall, birth rates continued to rise and net migration stayed steady at about 250 thousand; In 2009 Russia saw population growth for the first time in 15 years.
| Year | Population growth |
|---|---|
| 2000 | -586,000 |
| 2001 | -655,000 |
| 2002 | -685,000 |
| 2003 | -796,000 |
| 2004 | -694,000 |
| 2005 | -720,000 |
| 2006 | -554,000 |
| 2007 | -212,100 |
| 2008 | -121,400 |
| 2009 | +23,300 |
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....
, and the improving economy has had a positive impact on the country's low birth-rate, as it rose from its lowest point of 8.27 births per 1000 people in 1999 to 11.28 per 1000 in 2007.
Russian Ministry of Economic Development hopes that by 2020 the population will stabilize at 138-139 million, and that by 2025 it will begin to increase again to its present day status of 142-145, also raising the life expectancy to 75 years.
The two leading causes of death in Russia are heart disease
Heart disease
Heart disease, cardiac disease or cardiopathy is an umbrella term for a variety of diseases affecting the heart. , it is the leading cause of death in the United States, England, Canada and Wales, accounting for 25.4% of the total deaths in the United States.-Types:-Coronary heart disease:Coronary...
and stroke
Stroke
A stroke, previously known medically as a cerebrovascular accident , is the rapidly developing loss of brain function due to disturbance in the blood supply to the brain. This can be due to ischemia caused by blockage , or a hemorrhage...
, accounting for about 52% of all deaths. While cardiovascular disease
CVD
CVD can refer to:* Cardiovascular disease, the class of diseases that involve the heart or blood vessels* Countervailing duties, a mean to restrict international trade...
-related deaths decreased in Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
, North America
North America
North America is a continent wholly within the Northern Hemisphere and almost wholly within the Western Hemisphere. It is also considered a northern subcontinent of the Americas...
, and Western Europe
Western Europe
Western Europe is a loose term for the collection of countries in the western most region of the European continents, though this definition is context-dependent and carries cultural and political connotations. One definition describes Western Europe as a geographic entity—the region lying in the...
between 1965 and 2001, in Russia CVD deaths increased by 25% for women and 65% for men.
The percentage of infertile, married couples rose to 13% in the first decade of the 21st century, partially due to poorly performed abortion
Abortion
Abortion is defined as the termination of pregnancy by the removal or expulsion from the uterus of a fetus or embryo prior to viability. An abortion can occur spontaneously, in which case it is usually called a miscarriage, or it can be purposely induced...
s. According to expert Murray Feshbach 10-20% of women who have abortions in Russia are made infertile, though according to the 2002 census, only about 6-7% of women have not had children by the end of their reproductive years.
Provincial governments have begun offering special incentives to couples who procreate. In 2005 Sergei Morozov, the Governor of Ulyanovsk
Ulyanovsk
Ulyanovsk The city is the birthplace of Vladimir Lenin , for whom it is named.-History:Simbirsk was founded in 1648 by the boyar Bogdan Khitrovo. The fort of "Simbirsk" was strategically placed on a hill on the Western bank of the Volga River...
, made September 12 a provincial holiday, the "Day of Conception
Day of Conception
Day of Conception is a Russian Holiday made popular by the region of Ulyanovsk, birthplace of Vladimir Lenin...
," on which couples are given half of the work day off to copulate.
Mothers who give birth on June 12, Russia's national day, are rewarded with money and expensive consumer items. In the first round of the competition 311 women participated and 46 babies were born on the following June 12. Over 500 women participated in the second round in 2006 and 78 gave birth. The province's birth rate rose 4.5% between 2006 and 2007.
Large-scale immigration
Immigration
Immigration is the act of foreigners passing or coming into a country for the purpose of permanent residence...
is suggested as a solution to declining workforces in western nations, but according to the BBC
BBC
The British Broadcasting Corporation is a British public service broadcaster. Its headquarters is at Broadcasting House in the City of Westminster, London. It is the largest broadcaster in the world, with about 23,000 staff...
, would be unacceptable to most Russians. Organizations like the World Health Organization
World Health Organization
The World Health Organization is a specialized agency of the United Nations that acts as a coordinating authority on international public health. Established on 7 April 1948, with headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, the agency inherited the mandate and resources of its predecessor, the Health...
and the UN have called on the Russian government to take the problem more seriously, stressing that a number of simple measures such as raising the price of alcohol
Alcohol
In chemistry, an alcohol is an organic compound in which the hydroxy functional group is bound to a carbon atom. In particular, this carbon center should be saturated, having single bonds to three other atoms....
or forcing people to wear seat belts might make a lasting difference. In January 2010, in an effort to combat bootlegged vodka, the government set a minimum price for vodka, more than doubling the cost of the cheapest vodka on the market which is often much more hazardous to consume than legal vodka.
Then-President Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin served as the second President of the Russian Federation and is the current Prime Minister of Russia, as well as chairman of United Russia and Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Union of Russia and Belarus. He became acting President on 31 December 1999, when...
said in a state of the nation address that "no sort of immigration will solve Russia's demographic problem". Yevgeny Krasinyev, head of migration studies at the state-run Institute of Social and Economic Population Studies in Moscow, said Russia should only accept immigrants from the Commonwealth of Independent States
Commonwealth of Independent States
The Commonwealth of Independent States is a regional organization whose participating countries are former Soviet Republics, formed during the breakup of the Soviet Union....
, a view echoed by Alexander Belyakov, the head of the Duma
Duma
A Duma is any of various representative assemblies in modern Russia and Russian history. The State Duma in the Russian Empire and Russian Federation corresponds to the lower house of the parliament. Simply it is a form of Russian governmental institution, that was formed during the reign of the...
's Resources Committee.
Migration
Human migration
Human migration is physical movement by humans from one area to another, sometimes over long distances or in large groups. Historically this movement was nomadic, often causing significant conflict with the indigenous population and their displacement or cultural assimilation. Only a few nomadic...
in Russia grew by 50.2% in 2007, and an additional 2.7% in 2008, helping stem the population decline. Migrants to Russia primarily come from CIS states and are Russians or Russian speakers. Thousands of migrant workers from Ukraine
Ukraine
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It has an area of 603,628 km², making it the second largest contiguous country on the European continent, after Russia...
, Moldova
Moldova
Moldova , officially the Republic of Moldova is a landlocked state in Eastern Europe, located between Romania to the West and Ukraine to the North, East and South. It declared itself an independent state with the same boundaries as the preceding Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1991, as part...
, and the rest of the CIS have also entered Russia illegally, working but avoiding taxes. There are an estimated 10 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet
Republics of the Soviet Union
The Republics of the Soviet Union or the Union Republics of the Soviet Union were ethnically-based administrative units that were subordinated directly to the Government of the Soviet Union...
states in Russia.
See also
- Demographics of EuropeDemographics of EuropeFigures for the population of Europe vary according to which definition of European boundaries is used. The population within the standard physical geographical boundaries was 731 million in 2005 according to the United Nations. In 2010 the population is 857 million, using a definition which...
- Retirement in EuropeRetirement in EuropeRetirement age differs in European countries and is matter of debate across Europe, because of aging of population.- External links :*******-See also:*Pension*Retirement*Ageing of Europe*Demographics of Europe*Immigration to Europe*Population decline...
- Immigration to EuropeImmigration to EuropeImmigration to Europe increased from the 1980s onward, as a result of people from developing countries wanting to escape war, oppression, natural disasters or poverty. Some EU countries saw a dramatic growth in immigration after World War II until the 1970s. Most European nations today have...
- Aging of JapanAging of JapanThe ageing of Japan outweighs all other nations with the highest proportion of elderly citizens, 21% over the age of 65. In 1989, only 11.6% of the population was 65 years or older, but projections were that 25.6% would be in that age category by 2030...
- Population declinePopulation declinePopulation decline can refer to the decline in population of any organism, but this article refers to population decline in humans. It is a term usually used to describe any great reduction in a human population...
- EurabiaEurabiaEurabia is a conspiracy theory about the alleged Arabization and Islamization of Europe, and the European leaders' alleged capitulation to Islamic influences.-Origin of the term:...
- White nationalismWhite nationalismWhite nationalism is a political ideology which advocates a racial definition of national identity for white people. White separatism and white supremacism are subgroups within white nationalism. The former seek a separate white nation state, while the latter add ideas from social Darwinism and...
General:
- List of countries and territories by fertility rate
- Population ageingPopulation ageingPopulation ageing or population aging occurs when the median age of a country or region rises. This happens because of rising life expectancy or declining birth rates. Excepting 18 countries termed 'demographic outliers' by the UN) this process is taking place in every country and region across...
- Population pyramidPopulation pyramidA population pyramid, also called an age structure diagram, is a graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population , which forms the shape of a pyramid when the population is growing...
- Sub-replacement fertilitySub-replacement fertilitySub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate that leads to each new generation being less populous than the previous one in a given area. In developed countries sub-replacement fertility is any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4...
- World populationWorld populationThe world population is the total number of living humans on the planet Earth. As of today, it is estimated to be billion by the United States Census Bureau...
Demographic economics:
- Dependency ratioDependency ratioIn economics and geography the dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force and those typically in the labor force...
- Generational accountingGenerational accountingGenerational accounting is a relatively new method of national accounting for measuring redistribution of lifetime tax burdens across generations from social insurance, including social security and social health insurance...
- Pensions crisisPensions crisisThe pensions crisis is a predicted difficulty in paying for corporate, state and federal pensions in the U.S. and Europe, due to a difference between pension obligations and the resources set aside to fund them. Shifting demographics are causing a lower ratio of workers per retiree, while retirees...
Further reading
- Scholefield, Anthony. The Death of Europe: How Demographic Decline Will Destroy the European Union. 2000.
External links
- FLASH POINTS AND TIPPING POINTS: Security Implications of Global Population Changes, 2005-2025
- CoViVE Research Consortium on Population Ageing in Flanders and Europe
- The Emptying of Russia
- Replacement Migration: Is it a solution for Russia?
- Some EU nations offer benefits for births
- European Countries Try to Stimulate Higher Birth Rates
- Norway's welfare model 'helps birth rate'
- Dossier "The Aging Society" - Goethe-Institut