Access (economics)
Encyclopedia
Access is a catalytic process that enables interactions, contacts and exchanges among people, businesses and nations. An analytical framework to define the drivers and benefits of Access and to quantify the impact of Access on economic growth and personal well-being was created in 2006 by the Center for Science, Technology, and Economic Development at SRI International
SRI International
SRI International , founded as Stanford Research Institute, is one of the world's largest contract research institutes. Based in Menlo Park, California, the trustees of Stanford University established it in 1946 as a center of innovation to support economic development in the region. It was later...

 (formerly known as the Stanford Research Institute) in its study, “The Power of Access” (also titled, “How Greater Access Is Changing The World: A Landmark Study on the Relevance of Access to People, Businesses and Nations”). As outlined in the study, the Access framework consists of the Access Model, which expresses the function of Access as an econometric equation; the “Access Cycle”; and the "Access Index," which ranks 75 nations based on their performance in 22 metrics, including transportation infrastructure; telecommunications networks; trade policy; and news, media and information services.

SRI’s original study and subsequent research was sponsored by FedEx Corporation, which has incorporated the Access concept into its corporate thought leadership. In its broadest implications, Access is a framework that draws together and builds upon ideas found in the writings of varied theorists and commentators, including Thomas L. Friedman’s The World Is Flat
The World Is Flat
The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century is an international bestselling book by Thomas Friedman that analyzes globalization, primarily in the early 21st century. The title is a metaphor for viewing the world as a level playing field in terms of commerce, where all competitors...

 and the work of Marshall McLuhan
Marshall McLuhan
Herbert Marshall McLuhan, CC was a Canadian educator, philosopher, and scholar—a professor of English literature, a literary critic, a rhetorician, and a communication theorist...

.

The study provides governments, businesses and investors with a diagnostic picture of the types of infrastructure available or needed to increase Access.

SRI’s Thesis

SRI released its first report on Access on May 23, 2006 in Washington D.C. The Executive Overview of the report describes Access as “a catalytic process that enables interactions, contacts, and exchanges among people, businesses, and nations. While markets represent platforms for transactions to take place, access provides the means for markets to operate. Access indicates ability – the ability to accomplish a broad range of actions, from attaining physical presence to communicating, and from acquiring to using.”

Advances in transportation and communication technologies, beginning with the steam-powered locomotive (1804) and telegraph (1835) and continuing through advanced logistics
Logistics
Logistics is the management of the flow of goods between the point of origin and the point of destination in order to meet the requirements of customers or corporations. Logistics involves the integration of information, transportation, inventory, warehousing, material handling, and packaging, and...

 (1970s), overnight delivery
Overnight Delivery
Overnight Delivery is a 1998 romantic comedy film directed by Jason Bloom and was rated PG-13 by the MPAA and released direct-to-video. It featured Reese Witherspoon and Paul Rudd, prior to both becoming considerably bigger film stars.-Plot:...

 (1973) and the Internet
Internet
The Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet protocol suite to serve billions of users worldwide...

 (1990s), have led to dramatic increases in Access. The report’s authors write that “this march toward continuously greater access is accelerating.” Furthermore, they assert that increases in access inevitably lead to economic expansion, higher levels of personal fulfillment and satisfaction, and, most importantly, a growing hunger for connections and openness. The report explicitly declares that “Access is critical for economic survival and growth,” while implying that Access inevitably promotes openness and transparency if not held back by social or political factors.

The Access Function

Access can be written as a formula, in which the independent variables of time (T), space (S) and information (I) collectively establish the degree of Access (A):

f (T, S, I) = A
Greater Access is generated by reducing the space between the entity seeking Access and the thing (physical or informational) being sought; by reducing the time needed for its transport or communication; and by increasing the amount of information available about it.

Access also conveys benefits through these variables: Greater Access increases available time by reducing the time needed for transport or communication; it increases the amount of usable space in which individuals or corporations can function (e.g., from local to global markets); and greater access to information aids in decision making by reducing the level of uncertainty.

Graphed over time, the amount of Access in the world has increased exponentially since the Industrial Revolution
Industrial Revolution
The Industrial Revolution was a period from the 18th to the 19th century where major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and technology had a profound effect on the social, economic and cultural conditions of the times...

 (the age of steamships and railroads
Rail transport
Rail transport is a means of conveyance of passengers and goods by way of wheeled vehicles running on rail tracks. In contrast to road transport, where vehicles merely run on a prepared surface, rail vehicles are also directionally guided by the tracks they run on...

) and the communications
Telecommunication
Telecommunication is the transmission of information over significant distances to communicate. In earlier times, telecommunications involved the use of visual signals, such as beacons, smoke signals, semaphore telegraphs, signal flags, and optical heliographs, or audio messages via coded...

 revolution of the 19th century (i.e. the telegraph, telephone
Telephone
The telephone , colloquially referred to as a phone, is a telecommunications device that transmits and receives sounds, usually the human voice. Telephones are a point-to-point communication system whose most basic function is to allow two people separated by large distances to talk to each other...

, undersea cables, and radio
Radio
Radio is the transmission of signals through free space by modulation of electromagnetic waves with frequencies below those of visible light. Electromagnetic radiation travels by means of oscillating electromagnetic fields that pass through the air and the vacuum of space...

). “Individuals once had access only to those things within walking distance,” the report states. “As a result, their choices and capabilities were severely constrained by lack of access. A major reason for the emergence and growth of villages and towns was the desire of inhabitants to gain access – access to others, to security, to specialized trades, and to other factors associated with human commerce and interaction.”

But, “as transportation systems, technologies, and communications capabilities evolved and networks expanded in breadth and sophistication, degrees of access continuously increased. These changes led to the creation of advanced civilizations and, eventually, to the integration of all societies into a global society.” In this respect, Access would seem to be a beneficiary of the network effect
Network effect
In economics and business, a network effect is the effect that one user of a good or service has on the value of that product to other people. When network effect is present, the value of a product or service is dependent on the number of others using it.The classic example is the telephone...

 originally expressed as Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the value of a network increases exponentially with each new member.

The Impact and Beneficiaries of Access

SRI created another econometric equation to measure the impacts of Access as a function of participation by, choice available to, and improvement affecting human society. The beneficiaries of Access, as defined by the report’s authors, are
  • People, who desire access to personal wants and needs, such as education, jobs, health, food, consumer products, personal items, recreation, intellectual stimulation, etc., and the information to obtain them.

  • Businesses, which need access to markets, to information, and to inputs in order to remain viable and competitive. Their specific needs focus on various points in their value chains – logistics, distribution, marketing, etc.

  • Nations, and the smaller communities within them, must have access to resources and trade opportunities to sustain or improve standards of living and achieve economic growth.


The report outlines the benefits themselves as:
  • Participation, allowing each group to participate in activities and markets important to their well-being. For example, individuals with access to education and training can compete more effectively in the global job market.

  • Choice, which lies at the core of markets and open societies. The availability of different products or services to maximize utility or satisfaction will continue to change consumer and social behavior.

  • Improvement, allowing individuals, businesses, regions, and nations to link themselves together to reorder and improve business, economic, social, and cultural relationships. For example, people can interact with their families and friends, learn, conduct research, and obtain products on almost a virtual basis. Businesses can source and sell globally. Nations can increase rates of growth through international trade.


Using these variables, SRI then rendered the impact of Access as another equation, in which P stands for level of participation, C stands for amount of choice available, and _ stands for improvement in the status quo:

Impact = f people (P, C, _) + f businesses (P, C, _) + f nations (P, C, _)

The cumulative impact and benefits of Access is the sum of benefits delivered to each group. Those benefits include greater personal choice and empowerment
Empowerment
Empowerment refers to increasing the spiritual, political, social, racial, educational, gender or economic strength of individuals and communities...

; broader market reach, growth and competitiveness, innovation
Innovation
Innovation is the creation of better or more effective products, processes, technologies, or ideas that are accepted by markets, governments, and society...

, a stronger supply chain
Supply chain
A supply chain is a system of organizations, people, technology, activities, information and resources involved in moving a product or service from supplier to customer. Supply chain activities transform natural resources, raw materials and components into a finished product that is delivered to...

; and greater national and international cohesion.

“While every generation has witnessed improvement in access,” the report states, “and future generations are expected to have even more access than we have now, people today benefit from a unique level of access to physical things, to information, and to each other. The expectations, behavior, and power of access are exerting profound changes in the ways in which people, businesses, communities, and nations operate, giving rise to both considerable challenges and major opportunities.”

The Access Index

To quantify the degrees and impacts of Access, SRI created the Access Index, a list of 75 nations ranked from the most accessible to the least, using a scoring system devised by SRI researchers and drawing upon publicly available information from sources including the World Bank
World Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...

, the International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world...

, and the countries themselves.

In order to analyze and measure the potential impact of Access on nations, the research team selected 22 criteria, which they grouped under four headings:
  • Trade indicators that measure the “openness
    Openness
    Openness is the quality of being open. It sometimes refers to a very general philosophical position from which some individuals and organizations operate, often highlighted by a decision-making process recognizing communal management by distributed stakeholders rather than a centralized authority...

    ” of an economy from an international trade perspective (tariff
    Tariff
    A tariff may be either tax on imports or exports , or a list or schedule of prices for such things as rail service, bus routes, and electrical usage ....

     revenues, hidden import barriers, etc.).

  • Transport indicators that measure the extent of Access supported by the existing transportation infrastructure
    Infrastructure
    Infrastructure is basic physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise, or the services and facilities necessary for an economy to function...

     (port infrastructure, air transport infrastructure, etc.) in each country.

  • Telecommunications indicators that measure hardware
    Hardware
    Hardware is a general term for equipment such as keys, locks, hinges, latches, handles, wire, chains, plumbing supplies, tools, utensils, cutlery and machine parts. Household hardware is typically sold in hardware stores....

     (main telephone lines, personal computers, etc.), service availability (number of mobile telephone subscribers, speed of Internet access, etc.), and costs of service (cellular connection charges, business and residential telephone monthly subscriber charges, etc.).

  • News
    News
    News is the communication of selected information on current events which is presented by print, broadcast, Internet, or word of mouth to a third party or mass audience.- Etymology :...

    , Media
    Mass media
    Mass media refers collectively to all media technologies which are intended to reach a large audience via mass communication. Broadcast media transmit their information electronically and comprise of television, film and radio, movies, CDs, DVDs and some other gadgets like cameras or video consoles...

    , and Information Services indicators that measure the ability to obtain information through various media (televisions, radios, newspapers, etc.).


Drawing upon empirical data that fell under each of these headings, nations were awarded a total point score and ranking for each nation reflecting their cumulative degrees of Access. The overall ranking is the one published here.

Three complementary indexes measure the opportunities Access provides to people, businesses and nations overall. These three “opportunity” indexes gauge the extent to which different groups of potential Access beneficiaries are able to leverage and use Access to improve their current condition and future prospects. Each of these categories was then broken down again into four sub-categories in which each nation was also ranked. (SRI notes: “In this series of reports, the terms ‘nation’ and ‘country’ are used to describe economies that are generally recognized by international organizations as operating autonomously. As used in these reports, neither term is meant to imply sovereignty or independence of a particular economy included in the reports.”)

For example, while Hong Kong
Hong Kong
Hong Kong is one of two Special Administrative Regions of the People's Republic of China , the other being Macau. A city-state situated on China's south coast and enclosed by the Pearl River Delta and South China Sea, it is renowned for its expansive skyline and deep natural harbour...

 tops the Access Index overall, it did not finish first in any of the three sub-categories. Those were:
  • Iceland
    Iceland
    Iceland , described as the Republic of Iceland, is a Nordic and European island country in the North Atlantic Ocean, on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Iceland also refers to the main island of the country, which contains almost all the population and almost all the land area. The country has a population...

    . #1 in opportunities for its People, finishing #3 in the sub-category of “Empowerment,” #1 in “Connection,” #1 in “Well-Being,” #27 in “Choice & Expectations,” and #17 in the overall Access Index. Its high finish in this category “indicates that Icelanders, who are among the world’s most well-educated, are able to use their education to achieve a higher level of people-related opportunities from Access,” according to the report.

  • Germany
    Germany
    Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...

    . #1 in opportunities for Businesses, finishing #2 in “Supply Chain Strength,” #6 in “Innovation,” #24 in “Growth & Competitiveness,” #2 in Market Reach, and #7 in the overall Access Index.

  • Ireland
    Ireland
    Ireland is an island to the northwest of continental Europe. It is the third-largest island in Europe and the twentieth-largest island on Earth...

    . #1 in opportunities as a Nation, finishing #13 in “Broader Markets,” #16 in “Global Connections,” #8 in “National & International Cohesion,” #1 in “Growth & Prosperity,” and #23 overall.


The report’s authors correlated these rankings with each nation’s economic performance data and found that:
  • Higher levels of Access enable higher economic growth. The top 10 countries in the Access Index had an average GDP per capita growth rate of 22.6 percent from 1993–2003, whereas growth among the bottom 10 scorers was just 14.1 percent over the same period.

  • Greater Access relates strongly to higher levels of income
    Income
    Income is the consumption and savings opportunity gained by an entity within a specified time frame, which is generally expressed in monetary terms. However, for households and individuals, "income is the sum of all the wages, salaries, profits, interests payments, rents and other forms of earnings...

    . In addition, as nations develop
    Economic development
    Economic development generally refers to the sustained, concerted actions of policymakers and communities that promote the standard of living and economic health of a specific area...

    , their citizens — both people and businesses — typically demand greater Access.

  • Physical and information Access are closely aligned for the countries studied. Countries with advanced economies tend to have very high levels of both physical and information Access, though the expansion of physical and information Access may not proceed in tandem.

  • Access is critical for economic survival and growth, especially for nations that have small internal markets, have limited domestic resources, and/or rely heavily on international trade for economic survival and growth — such as those that topped the Index: Hong Kong (#1), Singapore
    Singapore
    Singapore , officially the Republic of Singapore, is a Southeast Asian city-state off the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, north of the equator. An island country made up of 63 islands, it is separated from Malaysia by the Straits of Johor to its north and from Indonesia's Riau Islands by the...

     (#2), Denmark
    Denmark
    Denmark is a Scandinavian country in Northern Europe. The countries of Denmark and Greenland, as well as the Faroe Islands, constitute the Kingdom of Denmark . It is the southernmost of the Nordic countries, southwest of Sweden and south of Norway, and bordered to the south by Germany. Denmark...

     (#3) Switzerland
    Switzerland
    Switzerland name of one of the Swiss cantons. ; ; ; or ), in its full name the Swiss Confederation , is a federal republic consisting of 26 cantons, with Bern as the seat of the federal authorities. The country is situated in Western Europe,Or Central Europe depending on the definition....

     (#4), Netherlands
    Netherlands
    The Netherlands is a constituent country of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, located mainly in North-West Europe and with several islands in the Caribbean. Mainland Netherlands borders the North Sea to the north and west, Belgium to the south, and Germany to the east, and shares maritime borders...

     (#5), and Finland
    Finland
    Finland , officially the Republic of Finland, is a Nordic country situated in the Fennoscandian region of Northern Europe. It is bordered by Sweden in the west, Norway in the north and Russia in the east, while Estonia lies to its south across the Gulf of Finland.Around 5.4 million people reside...

     (#6).


Other nations worth noting include:
  • The United States
    United States
    The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...

     (#12), falls behind Hong Kong, Singapore, and 10 Western European nations, but finished #1 in several sub-categories, including personal “Choice & Expectations,” corporate “Supply Chain Strength,” and the nation’s ability to connect with “Broader Markets.”

  • China
    China
    Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...

     (#52) finished surprisingly low, considering its very high GDP growth. While China scored high in sub-categories such as “Broader Markets” (#8) and “Choice & Expectations,” (#8), its overall score was dragged down by low rankings in categories such as “Empowerment,” (#49) and “Connection,” (#67) which reflect a society that is still largely closed.

  • OPEC
    OPEC
    OPEC is an intergovernmental organization of twelve developing countries made up of Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. OPEC has maintained its headquarters in Vienna since 1965, and hosts regular meetings...

     nations, including invitee Mexico
    Mexico
    The United Mexican States , commonly known as Mexico , is a federal constitutional republic in North America. It is bordered on the north by the United States; on the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; on the southeast by Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean Sea; and on the east by the Gulf of...

     (#45), Indonesia
    Indonesia
    Indonesia , officially the Republic of Indonesia , is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania. Indonesia is an archipelago comprising approximately 13,000 islands. It has 33 provinces with over 238 million people, and is the world's fourth most populous country. Indonesia is a republic, with an...

     (#60), Venezuela
    Venezuela
    Venezuela , officially called the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela , is a tropical country on the northern coast of South America. It borders Colombia to the west, Guyana to the east, and Brazil to the south...

     (#62), invitee Bolivia
    Bolivia
    Bolivia officially known as Plurinational State of Bolivia , is a landlocked country in central South America. It is the poorest country in South America...

     (#66), prospective member Ecuador
    Ecuador
    Ecuador , officially the Republic of Ecuador is a representative democratic republic in South America, bordered by Colombia on the north, Peru on the east and south, and by the Pacific Ocean to the west. It is one of only two countries in South America, along with Chile, that do not have a border...

     (#71), and Nigeria
    Nigeria
    Nigeria , officially the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is a federal constitutional republic comprising 36 states and its Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. The country is located in West Africa and shares land borders with the Republic of Benin in the west, Chad and Cameroon in the east, and Niger in...

     (#74) all appeared in the bottom half of the Index. The low levels of Access in these nations may partially reflect what is alternately called the “resource curse
    Resource curse
    The resource curse refers to the paradox that countries and regions with an abundance of natural resources, specifically point-source non-renewable resources like minerals and fuels, tend to have less economic growth and worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural resources...

    ” or “Dutch disease
    Dutch disease
    In economics, the Dutch disease is a concept that purportedly explains the apparent relationship between the increase in exploitation of natural resources and a decline in the manufacturing sector...

    ,” in which economies fail to diversify and compete globally due to a cushion of large oil reserves
    Oil reserves
    The total estimated amount of oil in an oil reservoir, including both producible and non-producible oil, is called oil in place. However, because of reservoir characteristics and limitations in petroleum extraction technologies, only a fraction of this oil can be brought to the surface, and it is...

     and high prices.

The Access Cycle

The SRI report expresses Access generation and expansion as a perpetual cycle.

As time, space and information converge toward perfect Access, people, businesses and nations derive increasing benefits, including greater participation and choice, and new levels of opportunities for participants.

The resulting growth, fulfillment and higher expectations heighten demand for greater Access, which in turn stimulate the investment and innovations that further increase Access.

Access, The “Flat World” and Related Theories

Many of the premises and conclusions of the Access framework encompass and build on the ideas of thinkers as varied as Marshall McLuhan and Thomas L. Friedman. Ranging far beyond the initial report and study, both SRI and FedEx have subsequently commissioned further research and interviews buttressing this concept, including those collected in an annual business publication, Access Review.

In its expanded form, Access incorporates a number of both competing and complementary theories that have attempted to explain globalization
Globalization
Globalization refers to the increasingly global relationships of culture, people and economic activity. Most often, it refers to economics: the global distribution of the production of goods and services, through reduction of barriers to international trade such as tariffs, export fees, and import...

 and information-based, post-industrial economies. Some of these theories include:
  • “The flat world,” advanced by New York Times op-ed columnist Thomas L. Friedman in his 2005 book The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century. Friedman’s list of “flatteners” includes digital technologies that spurred an exponential increase in instantly available information (e.g. “Netscape
    Netscape
    Netscape Communications is a US computer services company, best known for Netscape Navigator, its web browser. When it was an independent company, its headquarters were in Mountain View, California...

    ,” “Workflow
    Workflow
    A workflow consists of a sequence of connected steps. It is a depiction of a sequence of operations, declared as work of a person, a group of persons, an organization of staff, or one or more simple or complex mechanisms. Workflow may be seen as any abstraction of real work...

     software,” and the “steroids” of personal communication devices, including PDAs and mobile phones) and led to the creation of a “level playing field” offering new economic opportunities to individuals, corporations, and nation-states worldwide. To quote from page 11: “Because it is flattening and shrinking the world, Globalization 3.0 is going to be more and more driven not only by individuals, but also by a much more diverse — non-Western, non-white group of individuals. Individuals from every corner of the flat world are being empowered. Globalization 3.0 makes it possible for so many more people to plug and play, and you are going to see every color of the human rainbow take part.” Friedman concludes that the flat world is the result of a “triple convergence” of increasingly sophisticated communication technologies, horizontal collaboration between individuals and companies made possible by these technologies, and the liberalization of world politics. The Access framework also takes each of these phenomena into account as both the products and drivers of increasing levels of personal, corporate, and national Access.

  • The “global village
    Global Village (term)
    Global Village is a term closely associated with Marshall McLuhan, popularized in his books The Gutenberg Galaxy: The Making of Typographic Man and Understanding Media . McLuhan described how the globe has been contracted into a village by electric technology and the instantaneous movement of...

    .” Coined by Wyndham Lewis
    Wyndham Lewis
    Percy Wyndham Lewis was an English painter and author . He was a co-founder of the Vorticist movement in art, and edited the literary magazine of the Vorticists, BLAST...

     in his book America and Cosmic Man (1948) and adopted by Canadian philosopher Herbert Marshall McLuhan in his book The Gutenberg Galaxy
    The Gutenberg Galaxy
    The Gutenberg Galaxy: The Making of Typographic Man is a book by Marshall McLuhan, in which he analyzes the effects of mass media, especially the printing press, on European culture and human consciousness...

    : The Making of Typographic Man (1962), today the global village is mostly used as a metaphor to describe the Internet and World Wide Web
    World Wide Web
    The World Wide Web is a system of interlinked hypertext documents accessed via the Internet...

    . McLuhan’s book described how electronic mass media
    Mass media
    Mass media refers collectively to all media technologies which are intended to reach a large audience via mass communication. Broadcast media transmit their information electronically and comprise of television, film and radio, movies, CDs, DVDs and some other gadgets like cameras or video consoles...

     collapse space and time barriers in human communication, enabling people to interact and live on a global scale. In this sense, the globe has been turned into a village by the electronic mass media. McLuhan expanded upon this theme two years later in Understanding Media (1964), in which he discussed the evolution of the future of all media, using a definition of “media” that also included all forms of transportation. Just as the Access concept states that Access inevitably expands, thus in turn collapsing space and distance, so too, does McLuhan make similar claims in Understanding Media. For example, “the railway did not introduce movement or transportation or wheel
    Wheel
    A wheel is a device that allows heavy objects to be moved easily through rotating on an axle through its center, facilitating movement or transportation while supporting a load, or performing labor in machines. Common examples found in transport applications. A wheel, together with an axle,...

     or road
    Road
    A road is a thoroughfare, route, or way on land between two places, which typically has been paved or otherwise improved to allow travel by some conveyance, including a horse, cart, or motor vehicle. Roads consist of one, or sometimes two, roadways each with one or more lanes and also any...

     into human society,” he wrote in one passage, “but it accelerated and enlarged the scale of previous human functions, creating totally new kinds of cities and new kinds of work and leisure.” Somewhat of a technological determinist, McLuhan believed that new media exert a gravitational effect on cognition, which in turn affects social organization (hence the global village). In that sense, McLuhan presciently described the effects of contemporary levels of Access – ongoing advances in telecommunications and transportation have led to social change and upheaval worldwide.

  • “The J-Curve.” In his book The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Simon and Schuster: 2006), political scientist Ian Bremmer
    Ian Bremmer
    Ian Bremmer is an American political scientist specializing in US foreign policy, states in transition, and global political risk. He is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm...

     describes the relationship between a country's openness and its stability
    Economic stability
    Economic stability refers to an absence of excessive fluctuations in the macroeconomy. An economy with fairly constant output growth and low and stable inflation would be considered economically stable. An economy with frequent large recessions, a pronounced business cycle, very high or variable...

    ; focusing on the notion that while many countries are stable because they are open (the United States, France
    France
    The French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...

    , and Japan
    Japan
    Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...

    ), others are stable because they are closed (North Korea
    North Korea
    The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea , , is a country in East Asia, occupying the northern half of the Korean Peninsula. Its capital and largest city is Pyongyang. The Korean Demilitarized Zone serves as the buffer zone between North Korea and South Korea...

    , Cuba
    Cuba
    The Republic of Cuba is an island nation in the Caribbean. The nation of Cuba consists of the main island of Cuba, the Isla de la Juventud, and several archipelagos. Havana is the largest city in Cuba and the country's capital. Santiago de Cuba is the second largest city...

    , Iraq
    Iraq
    Iraq ; officially the Republic of Iraq is a country in Western Asia spanning most of the northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian Desert....

     under Saddam Hussein
    Saddam Hussein
    Saddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti was the fifth President of Iraq, serving in this capacity from 16 July 1979 until 9 April 2003...

    ). The J-Curve itself is a graph on which the x-axis measures the “openness” (or freedom) of the state in question and the y-axis measures the stability of that same state. It suggests that those states that are “closed”/undemocratic/unfree (such as the Communist dictatorships of China and Cuba) are very stable; however, as one progresses right, along the x-axis, it is evident that stability (for a relatively short period of time in the lengthy life of nations) decreases, creating a dip in the graph, until beginning to pick up again as the “openness” of a state increases; at the other end of the graph to closed states are the open states of the West
    West
    West is a noun, adjective, or adverb indicating direction or geography.West is one of the four cardinal directions or compass points. It is the opposite of east and is perpendicular to north and south.By convention, the left side of a map is west....

    , such as the United States or the United Kingdom
    United Kingdom
    The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...

    . Thus, a J-shaped curve is formed. The nations ranked in the Access Index map almost perfectly to the J-Curve as well. All of the nations in the top 20 of the Access Index possess broadly democratic governments, while the bottom 20 is mostly composed of closed and/or failing states such as Zimbabwe
    Zimbabwe
    Zimbabwe is a landlocked country located in the southern part of the African continent, between the Zambezi and Limpopo rivers. It is bordered by South Africa to the south, Botswana to the southwest, Zambia and a tip of Namibia to the northwest and Mozambique to the east. Zimbabwe has three...

     (#67), Nigeria (#74), Vietnam
    Vietnam
    Vietnam – sometimes spelled Viet Nam , officially the Socialist Republic of Vietnam – is the easternmost country on the Indochina Peninsula in Southeast Asia. It is bordered by China to the north, Laos to the northwest, Cambodia to the southwest, and the South China Sea –...

     (#73), Egypt
    Egypt
    Egypt , officially the Arab Republic of Egypt, Arabic: , is a country mainly in North Africa, with the Sinai Peninsula forming a land bridge in Southwest Asia. Egypt is thus a transcontinental country, and a major power in Africa, the Mediterranean Basin, the Middle East and the Muslim world...

     (#58), and Venezuela
    Venezuela
    Venezuela , officially called the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela , is a tropical country on the northern coast of South America. It borders Colombia to the west, Guyana to the east, and Brazil to the south...

     (#62). The Access framework suggests that the opening of these countries and the spread of individual economic opportunities (which are typically stunted or non-existent in resource-cursed nations) will lead to a turnaround in their political and economic fortunes.

  • “The Long Boom.” First advanced by futurist and Global Business Network
    Global Business Network
    Global Business Network, or GBN, is a strategy consulting firm and member of Monitor Group, that helps businesses, NGOs, and governments use scenario planning to plan for multiple possible futures....

     chairman Peter Schwartz
    Peter Schwartz (futurist)
    Peter Schwartz is a futurist, author, and cofounder of the Global Business Network , an elite corporate strategy firm, specializing in future-think and scenario planning...

     and journalist Peter Leyden in the July 1997 issue of Wired
    Wired (magazine)
    Wired is a full-color monthly American magazine and on-line periodical, published since January 1993, that reports on how new and developing technology affects culture, the economy, and politics...

     magazine, the “Long Boom” referred to a 40-year period of prosperity spanning approximately 1980 to 2020. Dismissed as an overly utopian forecast following the bursting of the Dot.com stock market
    Stock market
    A stock market or equity market is a public entity for the trading of company stock and derivatives at an agreed price; these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately.The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion...

     bubble and the aftermath of 9/11, the Long Boom prescribed “openness” — social, economic and political openness — as the catalyst for economic expansion. Schwartz and Leyden expanded this into The Long Boom (Perseus, 1999), a book-length look at a future characterized by global openness, prosperity, and discovery. The Access concept prescribes an approach akin with the original article, which would seem to hold up in the face of economic growth data. To quote from the original Wired article: “In a nutshell, the key formula for the coming age is this: Open, good. Closed, bad. Tattoo it on your forehead. Apply it to technology standards, to business strategies, to philosophies of life. It's the winning concept for individuals, for nations, for the global community in the years ahead. If the world takes the closed route, it starts a vicious circle
    Virtuous circle and vicious circle
    A virtuous circle and a vicious circle are economic terms. They refer to a complex of events that reinforces itself through a feedback loop. A virtuous circle has favorable results, while a vicious circle has detrimental results...

    : Nations turn inward. The world fragments into isolated blocs. This strengthens traditionalists and leads to rigidity of thought. This stagnates the economy and brings increasing poverty
    Poverty
    Poverty is the lack of a certain amount of material possessions or money. Absolute poverty or destitution is inability to afford basic human needs, which commonly includes clean and fresh water, nutrition, health care, education, clothing and shelter. About 1.7 billion people are estimated to live...

    . This leads to conflicts
    Group conflict
    Group conflict, or hostilities between different groups, is a pervasive feature common to all levels of social organization .. Although group conflict is one of the most complex phenomena studied by social scientists, the history of the human race evidences a series of group-level conflicts that...

     and increasing intolerance
    Toleration
    Toleration is "the practice of deliberately allowing or permitting a thing of which one disapproves. One can meaningfully speak of tolerating, ie of allowing or permitting, only if one is in a position to disallow”. It has also been defined as "to bear or endure" or "to nourish, sustain or preserve"...

    , which promotes an even more closed society and a more fragmented world. If, on the other hand, the world adopts the open model, then a much different, virtuous circle begins: Open societies turn outward and strive to integrate into the world. This openness to change and exposure to new ideas leads to innovation and progress. This brings rising affluence and a decrease in poverty. This leads to growing tolerance and appreciation of diversity, which promotes a more open society and a more highly integrated world.”

See also

  • The Rise of the Network Society, by Manuel Castells
  • Beyond Globalization: Shaping a Sustainable Global Economy, by Hazel Henderson
  • Massive Change, by Bruce Mau, Jennifer Leonard, and Institute Without Boundaries
  • Urban Society, An Ecological Approach, by Amos Hawley
  • Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, by Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams
  • Building a Future with BRICs: The Next Decade for Offshoring, by Mark Kobayashi-Hillary
    Mark Kobayashi-Hillary
    Mark Kobayashi-Hillary is a British journalist, blogger, and editor based in São Paulo, Brazil - he is the chief executive officer of research company IT Decisions...

  • The Emerging Markets Century: How A New Breed of World-Class Companies is Overtaking the World, by Antonie van Agtmael
  • The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Eradicating Poverty Through Profits, by C. K. Prahalad
  • The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom, by Yochai Benkler
  • Edge City: Life on the New Frontier, by Joel Garreau
  • The Twilight of Sovereignty, by Walter B. Wriston
  • The Clinton Global Initiative

External sources

Center for Science, Technology, and Economic Development
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