I saw a lecture of Bruno Tertrais in Vienna (hq of iaea). It was pretty interesting, that he thought, nuclear disarmament is increasing the demand for the bomb. So the argument, that getting rid of the weapons decreases the danger of a nuclear explosion is, according to Tertrais, not really true.

You can see the lecture here:

http://etalks.tv/blog/2010/02/12/are-we-losing-the-fight-against-nuclear-proliferation/

What do you think?